Dan Cassino
@dancassino.bsky.social
Political scientist at FDU, Executive Director of the FDU Poll, studying masculinities and research methods.
Coming in January!
November 11, 2025 at 1:45 AM
Coming in January!
Election Day in NJ! Democrats have a substantial margin in early voting, but anything can happen. Here’s my predictions for tonight, in order of likelihood:
November 4, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Election Day in NJ! Democrats have a substantial margin in early voting, but anything can happen. Here’s my predictions for tonight, in order of likelihood:
Update: Looks like closer to 285/290K D advantage in the Early Voting/VBM. Unless non-affiliated are way more Republican than in the past, it's hard to see how this is surmountable on Election Day.
November 3, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Update: Looks like closer to 285/290K D advantage in the Early Voting/VBM. Unless non-affiliated are way more Republican than in the past, it's hard to see how this is surmountable on Election Day.
Subtlety is for cowards, CVS vitamin aisle edition.
November 2, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Subtlety is for cowards, CVS vitamin aisle edition.
NJ early voting figures, as of yesterday from the NYT. Normal caveats: weird to compare Presidential election with Gov, Election Day voting will lean more GOP.
But this still looks consistent with Sherrill having a lead of about 5 points.
But this still looks consistent with Sherrill having a lead of about 5 points.
November 2, 2025 at 12:53 PM
NJ early voting figures, as of yesterday from the NYT. Normal caveats: weird to compare Presidential election with Gov, Election Day voting will lean more GOP.
But this still looks consistent with Sherrill having a lead of about 5 points.
But this still looks consistent with Sherrill having a lead of about 5 points.
Maybe I'm 12, but having your cognitive function test called "Woodcock-Johnson" is a little funny, right?
October 28, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Maybe I'm 12, but having your cognitive function test called "Woodcock-Johnson" is a little funny, right?
Among traditionally gendered women, the "mom of four" prime increased favorability by 1 point on a 10 point scale. Traditionally feminine women like it when female candidates are gender conforming! Importantly, the effect is equal across party lines.
October 28, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Among traditionally gendered women, the "mom of four" prime increased favorability by 1 point on a 10 point scale. Traditionally feminine women like it when female candidates are gender conforming! Importantly, the effect is equal across party lines.
Effects are smaller among Republicans, but very much still there. Republicans who don't buy into male role norms are much more likely to say that they're voting for Sherrill.
October 28, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Effects are smaller among Republicans, but very much still there. Republicans who don't buy into male role norms are much more likely to say that they're voting for Sherrill.
There aren't a lot of Democrats in NJ with high MRNI scores, but among those that do, only 65% say that they're "definitely" voting for Sherrill.
October 28, 2025 at 5:29 PM
There aren't a lot of Democrats in NJ with high MRNI scores, but among those that do, only 65% say that they're "definitely" voting for Sherrill.
And, of course, people who think that men should generally be in charge of everything are way more likely to vote for the male candidate.
October 28, 2025 at 5:27 PM
And, of course, people who think that men should generally be in charge of everything are way more likely to vote for the male candidate.
Acceptance of male norms is also really important. No surprise that Democrats generally score lower on the MRNI than Republicans, but the gap is real big.
October 28, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Acceptance of male norms is also really important. No surprise that Democrats generally score lower on the MRNI than Republicans, but the gap is real big.
Those folks with traditional gender identities are much more likely to support the Republican (male) candidate, Jack Ciattarelli. Importantly, this holds up even when you control for party.
October 28, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Those folks with traditional gender identities are much more likely to support the Republican (male) candidate, Jack Ciattarelli. Importantly, this holds up even when you control for party.
In the latter, we're asking people how masculine and how feminine they consider themselves to be. About half of men say that they're "completely masculine"; about half of women say that they're "completely feminine."
October 28, 2025 at 5:23 PM
In the latter, we're asking people how masculine and how feminine they consider themselves to be. About half of men say that they're "completely masculine"; about half of women say that they're "completely feminine."
Wasn’t expecting Moomin to have illustrated most of my recent discussions about national politics.
October 26, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Wasn’t expecting Moomin to have illustrated most of my recent discussions about national politics.
I think @masahiko-aida.bsky.social sent us magic beans- this is just a few days after planting! Going to have cranberry beans in no time.
October 22, 2025 at 10:21 PM
I think @masahiko-aida.bsky.social sent us magic beans- this is just a few days after planting! Going to have cranberry beans in no time.
Seems bad that when you search on Google for "NJ Health Insurance Marketplace," the actual site is the fourth result, below a different site with the same name "Get Covered NJ."
October 22, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Seems bad that when you search on Google for "NJ Health Insurance Marketplace," the actual site is the fourth result, below a different site with the same name "Get Covered NJ."
I don’t believe for a minute that Ciattarelli is actually calling Trump “constantly,” but this can’t be what Ciattarelli wants as a closing statement.
October 21, 2025 at 1:19 AM
I don’t believe for a minute that Ciattarelli is actually calling Trump “constantly,” but this can’t be what Ciattarelli wants as a closing statement.
Weighting data now, so not too long to wait for everyone else...
October 16, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Weighting data now, so not too long to wait for everyone else...
Nothing but admiration for the Coke Freestyle inspired Skittles machine, though.
October 15, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Nothing but admiration for the Coke Freestyle inspired Skittles machine, though.
I had foolishly assumed that renaming a rest stop on the Garden State Parkway after Jon Bon Jovi meant putting a new name up, rather than a video wall and a Planet Hollywood style exhibition.
October 15, 2025 at 1:28 PM
I had foolishly assumed that renaming a rest stop on the Garden State Parkway after Jon Bon Jovi meant putting a new name up, rather than a video wall and a Planet Hollywood style exhibition.
Tomorrow at 11, I'll be talking about polling and the NJ Governor's race at Ocean County College.
October 14, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Tomorrow at 11, I'll be talking about polling and the NJ Governor's race at Ocean County College.
Well, that’s never happened before. Apparently this article on the long term stability of masculinity/femininity measures is going to be open access.
October 9, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Well, that’s never happened before. Apparently this article on the long term stability of masculinity/femininity measures is going to be open access.
Inordinately proud of getting this quote in the paper today.
October 8, 2025 at 1:50 AM
Inordinately proud of getting this quote in the paper today.