Matthew Lebo | Lightnews

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 1d

To get to 50% approval, he'd need to perform at an 88. There are some groups that will not give up on him (e.g. White evangelical protestants (thx @daviddarmofal.bsky.social) or ever come on board.

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 1d

This is how I'm thinking about Trump's approval rating. Theoretically, his actual performance could vary between 0 (nuking all American cities and towns) and 100 (peace, prosperity, curing cancer). I put a dot at his lowest point, 34% after Jan 6 '21. With performance at 50, he'd be 45.5% approval.

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 1d

yes, that was my point, but "It basically gets exponentially harder to make the number drop the lower you go." is a much better way of saying it. It took an insurrection to get Trump from 40 to 34 last time, and that didn't last long.

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 1d

It was 39.3 on December 6th.

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 2d

The "bottom falling out" or a "tipping point" implies that the process of Trump losing support is speeding up. But imagine that each person he loses is his least supportive approver, leaving only more devoted people in the approve column. The next person is a little harder to shake loose.

David Darmofal @daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 2d

I just want to reiterate what @matthewlebo.bsky.social said the other day because our job is to look at data impartially. Honestly, 44% is not a terrible number for Trump. I'm not saying that's where it should be imho. But if you're arguing the bottom's falling out, you're not following the data.

Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · 2d

Fox News poll

Trump approval
🟢 Approve 44%
🔴 Disapprove 56%

Do you favor or oppose abolishing ICE
🟢 Favor 36%
🔴 Oppose 42%

static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/...

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 2d

Fiftyplusone has Trump at a new low of 39.0 today. He was at 39.3 on December 6th. He's doing a lot of unpopular things, but his supporters have a long history of getting over it.

fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

David Darmofal @daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 2d

I just want to reiterate what @matthewlebo.bsky.social said the other day because our job is to look at data impartially. Honestly, 44% is not a terrible number for Trump. I'm not saying that's where it should be imho. But if you're arguing the bottom's falling out, you're not following the data.

Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · 2d

Fox News poll

Trump approval
🟢 Approve 44%
🔴 Disapprove 56%

Do you favor or oppose abolishing ICE
🟢 Favor 36%
🔴 Oppose 42%

static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/...

static.foxnews.com

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 4d

Madel breaking with the GOP is another example of a Republican exiting the party without changing it; e.g. Cheney, Kinzinger, Romney, and Greene. To transform it, the Republican Party needs people to break with Trump, remain in the party, and survive reelection.

Jodi Jacobson @jljacobson.bsky.social · 4d

MN Gubernatorial candidate Chris Madel withdrew this morning from the race, saying "he cannot support the national GOP’s “stated retribution on the citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.”

www.startribune.com/chris-madel-...

Chris Madel ends GOP bid for governor, says he can’t support federal ‘retribution’ against Minnesota

His exit comes as some other Republicans have started to distance themselves from the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in the state.

www.startribune.com

Jodi Jacobson @jljacobson.bsky.social · 4d

MN Gubernatorial candidate Chris Madel withdrew this morning from the race, saying "he cannot support the national GOP’s “stated retribution on the citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.”

www.startribune.com/chris-madel-...

Chris Madel ends GOP bid for governor, says he can’t support federal ‘retribution’ against Minnesota

His exit comes as some other Republicans have started to distance themselves from the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in the state.

www.startribune.com

Daniel Schwarcz @danielschwarcz.bsky.social · 5d

Proud to be one of 65 University of Minnesota Law faculty who signed this open letter condemning the federal government’s ongoing and lawless campaign of fear, intimidation, and violence against Minnesotans. docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Open Letter to Minnesota Law CommunityJanuary 25

January 25, 2026 To the Minnesota Law Community: We, the undersigned faculty of the University of Minnesota Law School, write in our individual capacities to address the federal government's ongoin...

docs.google.com

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 6d

No bullshit about fentanyl or unfair milk prices anymore. Trump and Carney gave speeches, Trump's was panned, Carney's was praised, so 100% tariffs for Canada. He doesn't just want to insult the world, he wants to be praised for it.

Olga Nesterova @onestpress.onestnetwork.com · 7d

WHO removing Us Flag

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 7d

The Americans most responsible for vaccinations dropping and all the death and misery from that are RFK Jr. and the 52 Republican senators who confirmed him. At best, Cassidy is the 53 worst vaccination defender in the USA. What an idiotic headline, @nytimes.com

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 7d

Getting to 40% was to be expected. Holding steady with unpopular policies is a sign of the strength of his base. Maybe at 32% some things change but he's never been there and that would require a big chunk of his base saying "Hey dems, you're right, he's doing a bad job. 4/4

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 7d

Weaker compared to what? Probably, he's stronger than 1st term: his cabinet would sooner go to a Berlin bunker with him than invoke the 25th; 7 Rep senators voted to convict in 2021 but 4 are gone now; the military and DOJ have been hollowed out; negative partisanship is stronger than ever.... 3/4

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 7d

He got 49.9% in '24 and lost his reluctant voters.

History is not so helpful. Partisanship rules now. 60% is impossible. 30% would take a collapse with T's base. He could stand in the middle of 5th avenue and shoot everyone and maybe not lose any approvers.

Is he weaker at 40%? No.... 2/4

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 7d

How else to interpret an approval "collapse"?

Meaningful would 1) be below his natural level in a polarized US, 2) make actors with power to stop him change behavior.

What's natural level for T? 0-5 for dems, 80-90 for reps, 30-40 for inds. Overall, 35-43.

He's been steady at 40 for months. 1/4

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 8d

Matt Lebo, on Carney standing up to the bully:

“If everybody takes a step forward then you’ve done something successfully and banded the kids together to be a united front against the bullying,” he said. “And if all the kids take one step back, then you’re screwed.”

www.thestar.com/politics/fed...

Donald Trump’s turbulent day in Davos ends with hope of ‘forever’ deal on Greenland

The U.S. president has said America must acquire the Danish island to protect against national and international security threats.

www.thestar.com

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 10d

If you want an example of what Republican senators would do if they weren't so worried about reelection, here you go. Thom Tillis is retiring and this is as brave as he gets.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 10d

Tillis: "To be clear -- I'm not critical of the president. I'm critical of the bad advice he's getting on Greenland."

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 10d

Tillis: "To be clear -- I'm not critical of the president. I'm critical of the bad advice he's getting on Greenland."

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 12d

Can be just survey error. But also Trump voters can be unhappy for a bit and naturally revert back to approval when any outrage fades. Here's Gallup by party for a few months.

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 12d

Partisanship and negative partisanship: republican and Trump identifiers hate democrats enough that they will not stop approving of him no matter what he does. Even if they don't approve of specific policies, they approve of Trump.

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 12d

I think for most of them there is nothing Trump can do to get them to set aside their negative partisanship.

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 12d

Every poll release is about low approval, declining since Jan 2025 or low approval of policies. But approval has not budged in months and it was totally predictable to get to 40%. What happens at 40%? Nothing new.

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 12d

Our latest poll finds Trump approval at 41%, down 12 pts from first reading this term (small honeymoon)

Economic ratings continue to lag overall rating

Some groups have seen close to 20-point drops in past year, like young people, independents, '24 non-voters

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-i...

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 12d

Our latest poll finds Trump approval at 41%, down 12 pts from first reading this term (small honeymoon)

Economic ratings continue to lag overall rating

Some groups have seen close to 20-point drops in past year, like young people, independents, '24 non-voters

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-i...

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 12d

There are no moral or legal limitations to a government that is allowed to make an argument like this and not have the press, their party, and voters dump them immediately.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 12d

WELKER: What is the national emergency that justifies this new slate of tariffs?

BESSENT: The national emergency is avoiding a national emergency

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 12d

WELKER: What is the national emergency that justifies this new slate of tariffs?

BESSENT: The national emergency is avoiding a national emergency

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 15d

"You're seeing a lot of paid protesters" -- Rep. Mike Haridopolos's attempt to defend ICE's tactics in Minneapolis during a CNN panel discussion this morning did not go well. Bad used car salesman vibes.

Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 16d

Thanks for the late reposts but these ads came out in July 2025. We aren't accepting new applications.

Jay Rosen @jayrosen.bsky.social · 18d

Mark Jacob @markjacob.bsky.social, former metro editor at the Chicago Tribune, describes what a "radically truthful" journalism would look like. www.stopthepresses.news/p/how-to-bui...

How to build a radically truthful news outlet

The old ways don’t work. Time to declare war on the liars.

www.stopthepresses.news

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