Matthew Lebo
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo
@matthewlebo.bsky.social
American politics professor in Canada at the University of Western Ontario.
Worried about getting into or out of the US for APSA 2026? Or about what kind of paper you can present? Today is the deadline for Canadian PSA proposals for June 2-4 at U of Ottawa. Propose a paper or a whole panel. But do it today!
November 10, 2025 at 2:21 PM
At 40%, T still has solid support in Congress and the party. He went below 40 in term 1 and it didn't harm him much or get him convicted in the Senate in Jan 2021. If there's a tipping point for loud R opposition, it's far below here. 32% means losing 1 in 5 current approvers. That's a lot.
Taken together, the results reinforce what polls have shown for months: that Trump's approval is crashing with the voters who swung behind him in 2024. Young, ethnically diverse voters whose top issues are the economy and cost of living www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
November 9, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Trump's approval among independents is not good but numbers like these can be deceiving. Like, many disapprovers may have called themselves Democrats in February but now say they're independents.
Trump has lost 15 points with independents since February
November 4, 2025 at 12:19 AM
Reposted by Matthew Lebo
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. shows up to Game 7 in a Marie-Phillip Poulin jersey, the captain of the Canada women’s national ice hockey team
November 1, 2025 at 8:48 PM
The responsibilities and opportunities for Canadian universities are perfectly aligned. But it's been 10 months of this and just drips of actions here so far.

www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
Top researchers consider leaving U.S. amid funding cuts: 'The science world is ending'
A poll from the journal Nature found that 75% of researchers in the U.S. are considering leaving the country. That includes a man who’s been dubbed the "Mozart of Math." Stephanie Sy examines what’s b...
www.pbs.org
November 1, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Reposted by Matthew Lebo
For @policyoptions.irpp.org, I wrote about how Canada lags its European and Anglo peers in electing women to parliament, how that harms their reputation, and, drawing on research w/ @dzobrien.bsky.social & Amanda Clayton, why voters prefer gender parity. policyoptions.irpp.org/2025/10/gend...
Canada ranks 71st for women in politics
Canada ranks 71st in the world for women in parliament. Voters support gender quotas to make politics more representative.
policyoptions.irpp.org
October 27, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Reposted by Matthew Lebo
📣2026 Posters Competition🖼️
Open to all participants! Join prof @yveilleuxlepage.bsky.social in making posters a highlight #CPSA_ACSP26!
⏰NOV 10 25 shorturl.at/AgUow
@devoncantwell.bsky.social @matthewlebo.bsky.social
@apsa.bsky.social @balsillieschool.bsky.social
@csnrec.bsky.social @ipsa.org
October 28, 2025 at 9:06 PM
October 25, 2025 at 3:22 PM
The CPSA accepts proposals for full panels. Why not choose Ottawa in June instead of Boston, USA in September?
🎥Pulling back the curtain✨Meet the section heads who are crafting an unforgettable #CPSA_ACSP26 experience-They're ❤️beat of the conference!
👉🏽 shorturl.at/AgUow
@annadrake.bsky.social @joannaeveritt.bsky.social @qalbaugh.bsky.social @karenlynnbird.bsky.social @raulpachecovega.bsky.social
October 13, 2025 at 9:34 PM
BLS report that was due this morning didn't come out. The ADP estimate is that private employment in the US went down 32,000 jobs in September. There were also big downward revisions for previous month. Preventing the official release of bad economic news is a big shutdown bonus for Trump.
October 3, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Reposted by Matthew Lebo
Just *published* our paper with @westernupolisci.bsky.social PhD student, Hunter Driggers, on LLM bias from party cues in annotation tasks. We extend a previous study showing annotation bias from human coders in the presence of party cues… LLM show similar bias 🧵:

rdcu.be/eIKCj
LLMs as annotators: the effect of party cues on labelling decisions by large language models
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications - LLMs as annotators: the effect of party cues on labelling decisions by large language models
rdcu.be
September 29, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Will US universities now only interview Americans and PRs?
September 20, 2025 at 10:58 PM
While the Republicans on talk shows are saying stop calling us fascists, on Fox they are upping their fascism.
Brian Kilmeade endorses euthanizing homeless people: "Involuntary lethal injection, or something. Just kill them."
September 13, 2025 at 3:17 PM
The most ridiculously unlikely event in all the movies is the final poker hand in Casino Royale.
What is your most controversial James Bond opinion?

(These may be discussed in a future podcast)
September 1, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Freed of the pressures of re-election, now we’ll see that Ernst acts the same as ever because she’s ok with all the fascism.
August 29, 2025 at 8:51 PM
When the time comes, can someone etch this quote onto John Roberts' gravestone?
Trump on deploying the National Guard to Chicago: "I have the right to do anything I want to do. I'm the president of the United States."
August 26, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Reposted by Matthew Lebo
Measuring Transgender and Nonbinary Identities in Online Surveys: Evidence from Two National Election Studies

Measuring Transgender and Nonbinary Identities in Online Surveys: Evidence from Two National Election Studies By Quinn M. Albaugh, Queen’s University, Allison Harell, Université du Québec…
Measuring Transgender and Nonbinary Identities in Online Surveys: Evidence from Two National Election Studies
Measuring Transgender and Nonbinary Identities in Online Surveys: Evidence from Two National Election Studies By Quinn M. Albaugh, Queen’s University, Allison Harell, Université du Québec à Montréal, Peter John Loewen, Cornell University, Daniel Rubenson, University of Toronto, and Laura B. Stephenson, University of Western Ontario Survey researchers increasingly recognize the need to update their gender questions to recognize the existence of transgender and nonbinary people…
politicalsciencenow.com
August 14, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Reposted by Matthew Lebo
What Texas redistricting fight means as FBI joins hunt for absent Democrats

@globalnews.ca included expert insight from Prof @matthewlebo.bsky.social in an explainer article about why Republican lawmakers in Texas are pushing to redraw the state’s congressional maps.
globalnews.ca/news/1132228...
What Texas redistricting fight means as FBI joins hunt for absent Democrats - National | Globalnews.ca
A battle over future control of the U.S. House of Representatives has spilled out of Texas into the rest of the country, with experts warning of a 'slippery slope.'
globalnews.ca
August 11, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Reposted by Matthew Lebo
#polisky #psjminfo We're hiring for three faculty positions in the Department of Political Science at the University of South Carolina. All 3 positions are part of an internal departmental cluster hire in the thematic area of Problems of Democracy. A 🧵on the positions. 1/
August 6, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Yesterday's BLS July jobs report was released 8.5 hours after July ended (or 5.5 hours Pacific). Also keep that in mind when wondering why updates/revisions are necessary.
Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
August 2, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Reposted by Matthew Lebo
This workshop is going to be great fun, and I really look forward to meeting everyone!

It would mean a lot to me if you signed up!
❗️Our next workshop will be on August 14, 6 pm CEST, on marginaleffects package by
@vincentab.bsky.social !
Register or sponsor a student by donating to support Ukraine!
Details: bit.ly/3wBeY4S
Please share! #AcademicSky #EconSky #RStats
August 2, 2025 at 12:58 PM
You know, Donald Trump doesn't have to make all of my pessimism seem prophetic.
When the numbers turn bad, how will people know? Do you expect the BLS to be allowed to release bad numbers? If they don't, how does real economic information get to the public?
August 1, 2025 at 7:49 PM
So much for objective economic data on the U.S. economy. It was hard enough convincing partisans that the economy was doing well under a president they hated or badly under a president they liked. Now we can't even tell who's right and who's just cheerleading.
Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today
August 1, 2025 at 7:19 PM