A mama lasagna and four babies.

The Long Island national food: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfhf...

I mean when looking at month to month changes in presidential approval.

I buy that 2-yr inf predicted sentiment better under Biden. How far back does that hold? Is 2-yr inf a better predictor of presidential elections the last 40 yrs? Or did anti-Biden/Dem feeling push people and media in 2023-24 to rely on smthng different than usual to justify their partisanship/vote?

My book in progress shows inflation was disconnected from consumer sentiment under Biden to a ridiculous degree. Republicans drove down sentiment, the media did too, independents too. Had consumer sentiment reflected the actual economy to usual extent, Harris wins by 4 points.

No matter how you weight various polls, so long as the weighting doesn't change the ups and downs of approval over time are real. Like, no matter how badly you think my bathroom scale works, if it says I gained weight, I did.

The Leafs just sucked the joy out of these things for you too I guess.

He only has to walk around the bases!

At his rallies he plays Fortunate Son -- a song about rich assholes buying their way out of the Viet Nam War. Also YMCA. I don't get why that was never a story.

I want to make this point in something I'm writing. Have you written it somewhere a little more citable than a Bluesky post?

An Onion article on the subject would be completely identical to this one. Especially that picture.

Actually, try here: www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...

There might be lots but nothing comes to mind. For sure updating this finding and looking at the evolution of party unity vs. Trump loyalty vs. ideology would be interesting for the Republican members of Congress post-2014.

Yup! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Yeah, but isn't it better than paying the tariff on a new one?