Amy Fried
@asfried.bsky.social
Political scientist, kayaker
Emeritus, UMaine
Political Sightlines at https://amyfried.substack.com/
Books on how U.S. conservatives weaponized distrust, New England politics, professionalizing polling, and perceptions of public opinion as a resource
Emeritus, UMaine
Political Sightlines at https://amyfried.substack.com/
Books on how U.S. conservatives weaponized distrust, New England politics, professionalizing polling, and perceptions of public opinion as a resource
Pinned
Amy Fried
@asfried.bsky.social
· Nov 12
Blueskyers, I’m a retired political scientist, still actively writing and doing more real politics, whose core research has been on the history and political uses of public opinion. But I've done research other topics, too! My 1st pub was on abortion politics, the latest on ranked choice voting. 1/5
Reposted by Amy Fried
NATO IS THE SECURITY UMBRELLA. That is why UKRAINE WANTS TO BE UNDER IT.
Sorry for shouting but this is the Treasury Secretary of the United States, the world's still-dominant military power. And the Treasury is most definitely a foreign policy agency.
Sorry for shouting but this is the Treasury Secretary of the United States, the world's still-dominant military power. And the Treasury is most definitely a foreign policy agency.
WELKER: Is Greenland or NATO more vital to natl security?
BESSENT: That's obviously a false choice
W: Not to European leaders
B: They will come around & understand they need to be under the US security umbrella. What would happen in Ukraine if the US pulled support? The whole thing would collapse
BESSENT: That's obviously a false choice
W: Not to European leaders
B: They will come around & understand they need to be under the US security umbrella. What would happen in Ukraine if the US pulled support? The whole thing would collapse
January 18, 2026 at 3:07 PM
NATO IS THE SECURITY UMBRELLA. That is why UKRAINE WANTS TO BE UNDER IT.
Sorry for shouting but this is the Treasury Secretary of the United States, the world's still-dominant military power. And the Treasury is most definitely a foreign policy agency.
Sorry for shouting but this is the Treasury Secretary of the United States, the world's still-dominant military power. And the Treasury is most definitely a foreign policy agency.
Reposted by Amy Fried
Let’s be real: the ‘optics’ they’re concerned about are the thousands of ordinary Minnesotans who have turned out to protect their neighbors from extra judicial actions.
Being opposed by suburban wine moms is not a good look.
Especially when the suburban moms/allies are winning.
Being opposed by suburban wine moms is not a good look.
Especially when the suburban moms/allies are winning.
Trump is privately worried about the "optics" of ICE raids and his advisers are looking for ways to soften them, Axios reports. I'm calling bullshit: The terror and violence cannot be hived off from the broader policy agenda. They are 100% intrinsic to it.
New piece:
newrepublic.com/article/2053...
New piece:
newrepublic.com/article/2053...
Trump’s Own Advisers Suddenly Unnerved as ICE Raids Take Horrific Turn
So the president doesn’t like the “optics” of what ICE is doing. But there’s no such thing as sanitized, popular mass deportations—and this is by design.
newrepublic.com
January 18, 2026 at 3:03 PM
Let’s be real: the ‘optics’ they’re concerned about are the thousands of ordinary Minnesotans who have turned out to protect their neighbors from extra judicial actions.
Being opposed by suburban wine moms is not a good look.
Especially when the suburban moms/allies are winning.
Being opposed by suburban wine moms is not a good look.
Especially when the suburban moms/allies are winning.
Reposted by Amy Fried
How it started/how it's going
January 18, 2026 at 3:08 PM
How it started/how it's going
Mainers, in contrast to this, Trump has never called for someone to primary Susan Collins. That's because he wants her to have the Republican nomination. (Also the Maine Wire never posts anything critical of her; same thing.) #mepolitics
Trump says he will endorse Julia Letlow if she runs against Bill Cassidy in a Republican senate primary.
January 18, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Mainers, in contrast to this, Trump has never called for someone to primary Susan Collins. That's because he wants her to have the Republican nomination. (Also the Maine Wire never posts anything critical of her; same thing.) #mepolitics
Reposted by Amy Fried
it's more or less impossible to find issues that poll this badly and he's decided to make it a major, public priority www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...
January 18, 2026 at 2:48 PM
it's more or less impossible to find issues that poll this badly and he's decided to make it a major, public priority www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...
This is a literal anti-coalition stance. That perspective is contradicted by historical coalitional accomplishments, like MLK working with President Johnson to pass the Voting Rights and Civil Rights Acts. We have audio tapes of them strategizing on how to do that.
leftists are not in coalition with shitlibs like Stancil who flat out denies the material conditions of working class people.
Props to Will for doing some good. Maybe leaving his house for once will help him realize his politics are wrong. But if not, fuck him he’s still an enemy.
Props to Will for doing some good. Maybe leaving his house for once will help him realize his politics are wrong. But if not, fuck him he’s still an enemy.
January 18, 2026 at 2:58 PM
This is a literal anti-coalition stance. That perspective is contradicted by historical coalitional accomplishments, like MLK working with President Johnson to pass the Voting Rights and Civil Rights Acts. We have audio tapes of them strategizing on how to do that.
The Maine Wire has been trashing the Maine Community Foundation for its grants to Lewiston community orgs, claiming they used money raised for individuals affected by the gun massacre. But that's a lie. There were two funds and donors decided if their $ would go to indivs or not. #mepolitics 1/2
January 18, 2026 at 2:51 PM
The Maine Wire has been trashing the Maine Community Foundation for its grants to Lewiston community orgs, claiming they used money raised for individuals affected by the gun massacre. But that's a lie. There were two funds and donors decided if their $ would go to indivs or not. #mepolitics 1/2
Reposted by Amy Fried
🇪🇸🇺🇦 Spanish PM Sanchez:
"A US invasion of Greenland would make Putin the happiest man in the world. Why? Because it would legitimize his invasion of Ukraine. If the US were to use force in Greenland, it would be a fatal blow to NATO. Putin would have double reason to rejoice."
"A US invasion of Greenland would make Putin the happiest man in the world. Why? Because it would legitimize his invasion of Ukraine. If the US were to use force in Greenland, it would be a fatal blow to NATO. Putin would have double reason to rejoice."
January 18, 2026 at 1:47 PM
🇪🇸🇺🇦 Spanish PM Sanchez:
"A US invasion of Greenland would make Putin the happiest man in the world. Why? Because it would legitimize his invasion of Ukraine. If the US were to use force in Greenland, it would be a fatal blow to NATO. Putin would have double reason to rejoice."
"A US invasion of Greenland would make Putin the happiest man in the world. Why? Because it would legitimize his invasion of Ukraine. If the US were to use force in Greenland, it would be a fatal blow to NATO. Putin would have double reason to rejoice."
Reposted by Amy Fried
At a deep theoretical level, Stephen Miller and JD Vance think their view that immigrants threaten social solidarity is widely shared. But what's now happening is MAGA is driving native-born Americans to show solidarity with immigrants. Now Miller is trying to break that up w/coercion and violence.
Terror is essential to Miller's project. It's designed to dissuade us from showing solidarity with the immigrants getting removed. Stand in the way of ethnic cleansing and you risk violence yourself.
(h/t @whstancil.bsky.social and @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com)
newrepublic.com/article/2053...
(h/t @whstancil.bsky.social and @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com)
newrepublic.com/article/2053...
January 17, 2026 at 2:32 PM
At a deep theoretical level, Stephen Miller and JD Vance think their view that immigrants threaten social solidarity is widely shared. But what's now happening is MAGA is driving native-born Americans to show solidarity with immigrants. Now Miller is trying to break that up w/coercion and violence.
Reposted by Amy Fried
Even people who want to show ICE their papers are being assaulted and thrown on the ground. This is criminal activity at the hands of DHS. People are getting fed up with this thuggish activity.
January 18, 2026 at 6:33 AM
Even people who want to show ICE their papers are being assaulted and thrown on the ground. This is criminal activity at the hands of DHS. People are getting fed up with this thuggish activity.
Reposted by Amy Fried
At least a quarter of the entire population of Greenland’s capital marched in protest, waving their national flag 🇬🇱 and chanting “Greenland is not for sale”
And we know how a Trump administration would treat those protesters if allowed. www.theguardian.com/...
And we know how a Trump administration would treat those protesters if allowed. www.theguardian.com/...
January 18, 2026 at 6:40 AM
At least a quarter of the entire population of Greenland’s capital marched in protest, waving their national flag 🇬🇱 and chanting “Greenland is not for sale”
And we know how a Trump administration would treat those protesters if allowed. www.theguardian.com/...
And we know how a Trump administration would treat those protesters if allowed. www.theguardian.com/...
Reposted by Amy Fried
The US could certainly hit back and cause economic disruption in Europe but that will likely cause a rally around the leader/flag in Europe. That’s what happened when Russian gas was cut off/blew up In 2022/23. Europeans will be much more accepting of economic disruption. Americans less so. 5/
January 18, 2026 at 3:04 AM
The US could certainly hit back and cause economic disruption in Europe but that will likely cause a rally around the leader/flag in Europe. That’s what happened when Russian gas was cut off/blew up In 2022/23. Europeans will be much more accepting of economic disruption. Americans less so. 5/
Reposted by Amy Fried
At the same time, in the capital of Greenland a protest took place near the US consulate under the slogan: "We do not want to be Americans!". Among the demonstrators were the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance.
January 17, 2026 at 11:10 PM
At the same time, in the capital of Greenland a protest took place near the US consulate under the slogan: "We do not want to be Americans!". Among the demonstrators were the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance.
Reposted by Amy Fried
Have helped guard a local mosque during their Friday prayers.
Been very cold but Somali restaurant offers us delicious, warm tea constantly.
Members expressed much gratitude & confidence this ugly time will pass.
Been very cold but Somali restaurant offers us delicious, warm tea constantly.
Members expressed much gratitude & confidence this ugly time will pass.
Talked to a Somali man today who said his mosque last night was surrounded by neighbors ready to protect them against ICE if needed. Made me feel proud to live in this city.
January 18, 2026 at 3:27 AM
Have helped guard a local mosque during their Friday prayers.
Been very cold but Somali restaurant offers us delicious, warm tea constantly.
Members expressed much gratitude & confidence this ugly time will pass.
Been very cold but Somali restaurant offers us delicious, warm tea constantly.
Members expressed much gratitude & confidence this ugly time will pass.
Reposted by Amy Fried
It's political malpractice that Susan Collins, Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, has held no oversight hearings since taking the gavel a year ago. #MEpolitics
January 18, 2026 at 3:25 AM
It's political malpractice that Susan Collins, Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, has held no oversight hearings since taking the gavel a year ago. #MEpolitics
Reposted by Amy Fried
I think it would be a good idea for D politicians to be declaring this publicly, pre-emptively. They should state it as an abstract, legal proposition: an order by the President to seize Greenland would be unlawful, here's why. Trump does not have the legal right to attack a NATO ally. Say it.
If the U.S. military is given direct orders to seize Greenland—pull down another nation’s flag, and then claim the ground in the name of the United States—every senior commander has a moral obligation to refuse to accept or support such a command.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
Trump’s Greenland Ambitions Are No Joke
The Danes seem to believe him, and so should Americans.
www.theatlantic.com
January 18, 2026 at 5:13 AM
I think it would be a good idea for D politicians to be declaring this publicly, pre-emptively. They should state it as an abstract, legal proposition: an order by the President to seize Greenland would be unlawful, here's why. Trump does not have the legal right to attack a NATO ally. Say it.
Reposted by Amy Fried
Forced face scanning of a U.S. citizen with zero cause, just bald racial profiling. This is tech fascism.
Mubashir and his family came to the United States as refugees from Ethiopia when he was a child, and they all became naturalized citizens in 2019.
Despite being a U.S. citizen, Mubashir was targeted by ICE, assaulted, and detained. Listen to his story:
Despite being a U.S. citizen, Mubashir was targeted by ICE, assaulted, and detained. Listen to his story:
January 18, 2026 at 12:16 AM
Forced face scanning of a U.S. citizen with zero cause, just bald racial profiling. This is tech fascism.
Reposted by Amy Fried
They’re trying to deport witnesses to a murder by ICE guards
The Trump administration is seeking to deport two men who provided accounts of the Jan. 3 death of Geraldo Lunas Campos at a Texas detention camp that differed from the Department of Homeland Security’s description of the incident.
DHS seeking to deport two men who said fellow ICE detainee was killed
The two men’s eyewitness accounts of the Jan. 3 death of Geraldo Lunas Campos at a Texas detention camp differ from the Department of Homeland Security’s account of the incident.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 18, 2026 at 3:51 AM
They’re trying to deport witnesses to a murder by ICE guards
Reposted by Amy Fried
ABC News reporting 1,500 active duty soldiers are on standby to deploy to MINNESOTA.
The soldiers are from the 11th Airborne Division, based at Joint Base Elmendorf--Richardson, one of the Army's premier infantry formations.
The division is also the military's leading formation for Arctic warfare
The soldiers are from the 11th Airborne Division, based at Joint Base Elmendorf--Richardson, one of the Army's premier infantry formations.
The division is also the military's leading formation for Arctic warfare
Hundreds of active-duty soldiers on standby, 2 defense officials say
abcnews.go.com
January 18, 2026 at 3:05 AM
ABC News reporting 1,500 active duty soldiers are on standby to deploy to MINNESOTA.
The soldiers are from the 11th Airborne Division, based at Joint Base Elmendorf--Richardson, one of the Army's premier infantry formations.
The division is also the military's leading formation for Arctic warfare
The soldiers are from the 11th Airborne Division, based at Joint Base Elmendorf--Richardson, one of the Army's premier infantry formations.
The division is also the military's leading formation for Arctic warfare
Reposted by Amy Fried
To clarify why DHS is wrong - the standard for an arrest is the same as the standard for a warrant, probable cause. Reasonable suspicion of criminal activity, a lower standard, is what is used to justify a brief detainment for the purposes of determining if criminal activity is occurring.
DHS getting basic 4th Amendment law wrong on its official Twitter account.
Seems like this post is bound to show up as an exhibit in one of the cases challenging ICE/Border Control enforcement actions.
Seems like this post is bound to show up as an exhibit in one of the cases challenging ICE/Border Control enforcement actions.
January 18, 2026 at 12:29 AM
To clarify why DHS is wrong - the standard for an arrest is the same as the standard for a warrant, probable cause. Reasonable suspicion of criminal activity, a lower standard, is what is used to justify a brief detainment for the purposes of determining if criminal activity is occurring.
Reposted by Amy Fried
They expect - they NEED - the people they threaten to fall in line, like the law firms and universities and media companies and billionaires and Congress did. If you say “No, make me,” they simply do not have a Plan B. TRUMP DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH GUYS TO MAKE YOU.
January 17, 2026 at 2:07 PM
They expect - they NEED - the people they threaten to fall in line, like the law firms and universities and media companies and billionaires and Congress did. If you say “No, make me,” they simply do not have a Plan B. TRUMP DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH GUYS TO MAKE YOU.
Reposted by Amy Fried
GOV. WALZ CALLS UP MINNESOTA NATIONAL GUARD TO "PROTECT THE PUBLIC'S RIGHT TO ASSEMBLE PEACEFULLY"
“We are staged and ready to respond. We are not deployed to city streets at this time" said MN NG Army Maj. Andrea Tsuchiya,...
“We are staged and ready to respond. We are not deployed to city streets at this time" said MN NG Army Maj. Andrea Tsuchiya,...
January 17, 2026 at 9:29 PM
GOV. WALZ CALLS UP MINNESOTA NATIONAL GUARD TO "PROTECT THE PUBLIC'S RIGHT TO ASSEMBLE PEACEFULLY"
“We are staged and ready to respond. We are not deployed to city streets at this time" said MN NG Army Maj. Andrea Tsuchiya,...
“We are staged and ready to respond. We are not deployed to city streets at this time" said MN NG Army Maj. Andrea Tsuchiya,...
Reposted by Amy Fried
that’s right
Spanberger ends relationship between ICE and Virginia State Police
“This is an absolutely huge first step because it sends a message that she cares about the trust that the community has with the government, not just law enforcement,” immigration advocate Luis Aguila...
www.wvtf.org
January 17, 2026 at 8:33 PM
that’s right