David Shor
@davidshor.bsky.social
Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami.
I try to elect Democrats.
Views are my own. he/him🌹
I try to elect Democrats.
Views are my own. he/him🌹
When you ask Americans whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about AI, optimism beats pessimism by ~5 points.
The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI.
N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10
The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI.
N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10
December 28, 2025 at 8:23 PM
When you ask Americans whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about AI, optimism beats pessimism by ~5 points.
The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI.
N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10
The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI.
N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10
Because child gender is ~ random, we can estimate the causal impact of being a "boy mom" vs "girl mom" by conditioning on # of kids.
Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic.
Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.
Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic.
Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.
December 18, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Because child gender is ~ random, we can estimate the causal impact of being a "boy mom" vs "girl mom" by conditioning on # of kids.
Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic.
Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.
Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic.
Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.
Reposted by David Shor
This from @davidshor.bsky.social made me LOL. "having wealthy people or economists be mad at you is a feature, not a bug" .... anyway, it's a very interesting conversation I recommend it.
December 12, 2025 at 8:48 PM
This from @davidshor.bsky.social made me LOL. "having wealthy people or economists be mad at you is a feature, not a bug" .... anyway, it's a very interesting conversation I recommend it.
Really excited I got to talk to @bharatramamurti.bsky.social
about what the polling says about AI, people’s intuitions of fairness in a hypothetical post scarcity world, and most controversially what I think about PRICE CONTROLS
Check it out!
bharatramamurti.substack.com/p/a-conversa...
about what the polling says about AI, people’s intuitions of fairness in a hypothetical post scarcity world, and most controversially what I think about PRICE CONTROLS
Check it out!
bharatramamurti.substack.com/p/a-conversa...
A Conversation with David Shor of Blue Rose Research
What public opinion tells us about AI, affordability, and more
bharatramamurti.substack.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Really excited I got to talk to @bharatramamurti.bsky.social
about what the polling says about AI, people’s intuitions of fairness in a hypothetical post scarcity world, and most controversially what I think about PRICE CONTROLS
Check it out!
bharatramamurti.substack.com/p/a-conversa...
about what the polling says about AI, people’s intuitions of fairness in a hypothetical post scarcity world, and most controversially what I think about PRICE CONTROLS
Check it out!
bharatramamurti.substack.com/p/a-conversa...
Young voters are now 3x as likely to report having been estranged from their parents for an extended period of time than voters over the age of 65.
Parental estrangement is uncorrelated with partisanship and is concentrated among low-turnout independents.
Parental estrangement is uncorrelated with partisanship and is concentrated among low-turnout independents.
November 27, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Young voters are now 3x as likely to report having been estranged from their parents for an extended period of time than voters over the age of 65.
Parental estrangement is uncorrelated with partisanship and is concentrated among low-turnout independents.
Parental estrangement is uncorrelated with partisanship and is concentrated among low-turnout independents.
Amazon/Microsoft/Google/Apple all have very high net favs, Nvidia is unknown, Tesla is unpopular, Meta is somewhere in between
"Big tech companies" in general underperform the average of specific tech companies and are narrowly underwater - but still much more popular than both political parties
"Big tech companies" in general underperform the average of specific tech companies and are narrowly underwater - but still much more popular than both political parties
November 27, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Amazon/Microsoft/Google/Apple all have very high net favs, Nvidia is unknown, Tesla is unpopular, Meta is somewhere in between
"Big tech companies" in general underperform the average of specific tech companies and are narrowly underwater - but still much more popular than both political parties
"Big tech companies" in general underperform the average of specific tech companies and are narrowly underwater - but still much more popular than both political parties
The issue landscape has changed dramatically over the last year - Democrats successfully have simultaneously raised the salience and expanded our trust advantage on our best issue (healthcare) *and* dramatically improved our trust advantage on the cost of living and the economy
November 19, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The issue landscape has changed dramatically over the last year - Democrats successfully have simultaneously raised the salience and expanded our trust advantage on our best issue (healthcare) *and* dramatically improved our trust advantage on the cost of living and the economy
Reposted by David Shor
David Shor: "[Zohran Mamdani] ran the most economically focused campaign of any politician that I can remember maybe since Barack Obama in 2012." #crookedcon2025
November 7, 2025 at 8:05 PM
David Shor: "[Zohran Mamdani] ran the most economically focused campaign of any politician that I can remember maybe since Barack Obama in 2012." #crookedcon2025
Zohran's relentless disciplined campaign was truly impressive - he brought every message/issue back to the cost of living and built a model for what bringing attention to a positive affordability message can look like
Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE!
x.com/alimortell/s...
Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE!
x.com/alimortell/s...
Ali Mortell on X: ".@ZohranKMamdani ran a phenomenal, authentic campaign focused on affordability. Blue Rose Research is proud to have partnered with @MiddleSeatCo on ad testing and to support their work in helping build the momentum for a more affordable New York. LFG 🌹 https://t.co/0HLenkSSrv" / X
.@ZohranKMamdani ran a phenomenal, authentic campaign focused on affordability. Blue Rose Research is proud to have partnered with @MiddleSeatCo on ad testing and to support their work in helping build the momentum for a more affordable New York. LFG 🌹 https://t.co/0HLenkSSrv
x.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Zohran's relentless disciplined campaign was truly impressive - he brought every message/issue back to the cost of living and built a model for what bringing attention to a positive affordability message can look like
Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE!
x.com/alimortell/s...
Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE!
x.com/alimortell/s...
Reposted by David Shor
Video of this year's Harvard Hutchins Center forum: What went wrong? What's next? Thoughtful and provocative conversation. Jonathan Capehart, Astead Herndon, Sherrilyn Ifill, David Shor, Laurence Tribe, Charlene Hunter-Gault www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld4k...
WATCH LIVE: The 2025 Hutchins Forum
YouTube video by PBS NewsHour
www.youtube.com
August 24, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Video of this year's Harvard Hutchins Center forum: What went wrong? What's next? Thoughtful and provocative conversation. Jonathan Capehart, Astead Herndon, Sherrilyn Ifill, David Shor, Laurence Tribe, Charlene Hunter-Gault www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld4k...
Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
July 12, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat.
These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.
These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.
June 26, 2025 at 10:47 PM
The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat.
These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.
These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.
Traditionally there's been a quant/qual split on ad length in Democratic politics, with [usually more moderate] quants pushing for shorter 15 second ads and [usually more progressive] qual folks pushing for 60 second ads.
Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!
Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!
June 26, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Traditionally there's been a quant/qual split on ad length in Democratic politics, with [usually more moderate] quants pushing for shorter 15 second ads and [usually more progressive] qual folks pushing for 60 second ads.
Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!
Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!
Zohran raised a lot less money than you'd expect given his vote share and educated coalition - he barely outraised Lander!
His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!
His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!
June 25, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Zohran raised a lot less money than you'd expect given his vote share and educated coalition - he barely outraised Lander!
His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!
His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!
@zohrankmamdani.bsky.social is a great example of how far you can go if you genuinely center your campaign in an engaging way around the issue that voters overwhelmingly say in surveys they care the most about
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...
NYC is Suffering from Halalflation
YouTube video by Zohran Mamdani for NYC
www.youtube.com
June 25, 2025 at 2:20 AM
@zohrankmamdani.bsky.social is a great example of how far you can go if you genuinely center your campaign in an engaging way around the issue that voters overwhelmingly say in surveys they care the most about
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...
Excited to signal boost @shiraamitchell.bsky.social and @ccgilroy.bsky.social 's response to the @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social and Caroline Soler's critiques of our estimates of Harris support among non-voters and youth voters.
Our main points:
Our main points:
New post: "Struggles with surveying nonvoters and young voters"
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/05/16/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/05/16/s...
Struggles with surveying nonvoters and young voters | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
May 16, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Excited to signal boost @shiraamitchell.bsky.social and @ccgilroy.bsky.social 's response to the @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social and Caroline Soler's critiques of our estimates of Harris support among non-voters and youth voters.
Our main points:
Our main points:
Really great to see @rokhanna.bsky.social stand up for tracking - removing advanced classes from schools is literally the single most unpopular policy we've ever polled
May 13, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Really great to see @rokhanna.bsky.social stand up for tracking - removing advanced classes from schools is literally the single most unpopular policy we've ever polled
If you're in the Bay Area tomorrow and want to learn more about ways to apply AI skills toward progressive change and fighting Trump, come check us out on Tuesday May 13th!
lu.ma/dugt12v6
lu.ma/dugt12v6
May 12, 2025 at 5:24 PM
If you're in the Bay Area tomorrow and want to learn more about ways to apply AI skills toward progressive change and fighting Trump, come check us out on Tuesday May 13th!
lu.ma/dugt12v6
lu.ma/dugt12v6
Reposted by David Shor
Conservatives are gaining most among immigrants and visible minorities this election. However, this could also be a sign of the ecological fallacy. @sharonk.bsky.social shared this piece on the subject schoolofcities.github.io/gta-immigrat...
April 25, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Conservatives are gaining most among immigrants and visible minorities this election. However, this could also be a sign of the ecological fallacy. @sharonk.bsky.social shared this piece on the subject schoolofcities.github.io/gta-immigrat...
Reposted by David Shor
Also we’re hiring for an AI-focused machine learning engineer role at Blue Rose!
This is a great chance to be at the forefront of using cutting edge machine learning techniques to resist Donald Trump!
t.co/dwE3D3mJ4F
This is a great chance to be at the forefront of using cutting edge machine learning techniques to resist Donald Trump!
t.co/dwE3D3mJ4F
March 18, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Also we’re hiring for an AI-focused machine learning engineer role at Blue Rose!
This is a great chance to be at the forefront of using cutting edge machine learning techniques to resist Donald Trump!
t.co/dwE3D3mJ4F
This is a great chance to be at the forefront of using cutting edge machine learning techniques to resist Donald Trump!
t.co/dwE3D3mJ4F
Reposted by David Shor
This, from David Shor, is what I've been saying for a while. A lot of post-election punditry has decided trans issues are a "luxury belief" but also the obsessive hatred of us across the right-wing is somehow not. It's a rich man's game, society's wealthiest scapegoating the wrong 1%
March 18, 2025 at 2:57 PM
This, from David Shor, is what I've been saying for a while. A lot of post-election punditry has decided trans issues are a "luxury belief" but also the obsessive hatred of us across the right-wing is somehow not. It's a rich man's game, society's wealthiest scapegoating the wrong 1%
Excited to join @ezraklein to talk through what happened in 2024.
There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking about. With less-engaged and less-likely voters becoming more Republican, a larger turnout meant a more GOP electorate.
There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking about. With less-engaged and less-likely voters becoming more Republican, a larger turnout meant a more GOP electorate.
March 18, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Excited to join @ezraklein to talk through what happened in 2024.
There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking about. With less-engaged and less-likely voters becoming more Republican, a larger turnout meant a more GOP electorate.
There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking about. With less-engaged and less-likely voters becoming more Republican, a larger turnout meant a more GOP electorate.
Reposted by David Shor
Come work with us!
thinking about the next election ? come work with us !
we're hiring for an AI-focused machine learning engineer role at Blue Rose Research.
job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...
we're hiring for an AI-focused machine learning engineer role at Blue Rose Research.
job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...
Machine Learning Engineer (Remote)
Remote
job-boards.greenhouse.io
March 10, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Come work with us!
Reposted by David Shor
I also struggle to find a lot of solace in the fact that Dems are going to romp in 2026, but all the evidence is that they're going to. I'm stealing this from @davidshor.bsky.social on Twitter but current generic ballot polling suggests Dems will win 2 party vote by 8 points 18 months from now.
March 17, 2025 at 3:28 PM
I also struggle to find a lot of solace in the fact that Dems are going to romp in 2026, but all the evidence is that they're going to. I'm stealing this from @davidshor.bsky.social on Twitter but current generic ballot polling suggests Dems will win 2 party vote by 8 points 18 months from now.
The defining psychometric characteristics of leftist anti-Dems after you control for demographics/ideology are pretty anchored around wanting to rebel against authority and be different than the mainstream.
They can’t really help it, it’s who they are on a very fundamental level
They can’t really help it, it’s who they are on a very fundamental level
March 12, 2025 at 11:36 PM
The defining psychometric characteristics of leftist anti-Dems after you control for demographics/ideology are pretty anchored around wanting to rebel against authority and be different than the mainstream.
They can’t really help it, it’s who they are on a very fundamental level
They can’t really help it, it’s who they are on a very fundamental level