David Shor
@davidshor.bsky.social
Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami.
I try to elect Democrats.
Views are my own. he/him🌹
I try to elect Democrats.
Views are my own. he/him🌹
As far as I know not much has been written about the behind the scenes stuff on HR 1, but this post from Bruenig (who definitely is not a moderate!!!) on Childcare gets at a lot of the same dynamics.
www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2022/04/19/t...
www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2022/04/19/t...
November 7, 2025 at 10:09 PM
As far as I know not much has been written about the behind the scenes stuff on HR 1, but this post from Bruenig (who definitely is not a moderate!!!) on Childcare gets at a lot of the same dynamics.
www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2022/04/19/t...
www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2022/04/19/t...
Similarly the big reason we never got a vote on Puerto Rican statehood was objections from the squad and from Velázquez.
Politics is unfortunately a super opaque industry, it's easy to get sucked into the kayfabe narratives that get pushed to the base to suck money out of them.
Politics is unfortunately a super opaque industry, it's easy to get sucked into the kayfabe narratives that get pushed to the base to suck money out of them.
November 7, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Similarly the big reason we never got a vote on Puerto Rican statehood was objections from the squad and from Velázquez.
Politics is unfortunately a super opaque industry, it's easy to get sucked into the kayfabe narratives that get pushed to the base to suck money out of them.
Politics is unfortunately a super opaque industry, it's easy to get sucked into the kayfabe narratives that get pushed to the base to suck money out of them.
That's the narrative everyone wants to tell.
The reality is that the bill was an unworkable mess and was super weak on redistricting because a bunch of representatives in very blue seats were against it.
The reality is that the bill was an unworkable mess and was super weak on redistricting because a bunch of representatives in very blue seats were against it.
November 7, 2025 at 9:46 PM
That's the narrative everyone wants to tell.
The reality is that the bill was an unworkable mess and was super weak on redistricting because a bunch of representatives in very blue seats were against it.
The reality is that the bill was an unworkable mess and was super weak on redistricting because a bunch of representatives in very blue seats were against it.
That’s what irks me so much - I got to see it at least somewhat close up and there was more dishonesty at every level of the process than anything else I’ve seen in my entire career x.com/davidshor/st...
David Shor on X: "@DCCyclone @brianbeutler @mattyglesias There was a serious and gross insider/outsider vibe where people in the know knew it wouldn’t pass almost immediately while the donor class was cynically strung along for money for a year. I don’t know how anyone who was close to the process could not think mistakes were made." / X
@DCCyclone @brianbeutler @mattyglesias There was a serious and gross insider/outsider vibe where people in the know knew it wouldn’t pass almost immediately while the donor class was cynically strung along for money for a year. I don’t know how anyone who was close to the process could not think mistakes were made.
x.com
November 7, 2025 at 5:57 PM
That’s what irks me so much - I got to see it at least somewhat close up and there was more dishonesty at every level of the process than anything else I’ve seen in my entire career x.com/davidshor/st...
A clean bill probably would have failed too, we'll never know - but we are definitely never going to get fair maps if we totally refuse to acknowledge what actually happened.
November 7, 2025 at 5:49 PM
A clean bill probably would have failed too, we'll never know - but we are definitely never going to get fair maps if we totally refuse to acknowledge what actually happened.
There was a decision made behind closed doors to make bold faced lies about the impact of voting access laws rather than focus on redistricting because there was a lot of private opposition to strong partisan fairness standards for maps from the CBC
November 7, 2025 at 5:48 PM
There was a decision made behind closed doors to make bold faced lies about the impact of voting access laws rather than focus on redistricting because there was a lot of private opposition to strong partisan fairness standards for maps from the CBC
I've had dozens of tweets arguing with Republicans about gerrymandering so far this year - how many do you think I should have done instead?
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November 7, 2025 at 5:43 PM
I've had dozens of tweets arguing with Republicans about gerrymandering so far this year - how many do you think I should have done instead?
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This paper gets at a lot of this cces.gov.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
cces.gov.harvard.edu
October 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM
This paper gets at a lot of this cces.gov.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Both graphs are restricted non-white people
September 16, 2025 at 4:43 AM
Both graphs are restricted non-white people
Hard to know exactly - some combination of TikTok and Covid changing people’s news consumption to be way more online (discords, WhatsApp groups, etc).
September 15, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Hard to know exactly - some combination of TikTok and Covid changing people’s news consumption to be way more online (discords, WhatsApp groups, etc).
I think it’s probably related to the decline among immigrants we’re seeing everywhere too - there’s been a really fundamental change in the information ecosystem of people who don’t follow politics closely bsky.app/profile/davi...
Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
September 15, 2025 at 6:06 PM
I think it’s probably related to the decline among immigrants we’re seeing everywhere too - there’s been a really fundamental change in the information ecosystem of people who don’t follow politics closely bsky.app/profile/davi...
This Norway paper is pretty good for showing whats going on - when I looked through old Canada polling I saw a similar story too.
The real outlier is Germany, where its young women moving left rather than young men moving right.
bsky.app/profile/rube...
The real outlier is Germany, where its young women moving left rather than young men moving right.
bsky.app/profile/rube...
The pattern is the same whether we measure polarization through voting or left-right self-placement. Boys have shifted to the right and girls to the left.
September 15, 2025 at 6:05 PM
This Norway paper is pretty good for showing whats going on - when I looked through old Canada polling I saw a similar story too.
The real outlier is Germany, where its young women moving left rather than young men moving right.
bsky.app/profile/rube...
The real outlier is Germany, where its young women moving left rather than young men moving right.
bsky.app/profile/rube...
I’m using YouGov’s 35k sample post election survey from this yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
How Britain voted in the 2024 general election | YouGov
Using a sample of over 35,000 voters, YouGov looks at how voters voted at the 2024 election across factors like age, gender, class, education, income, work status, housing tenure and their vote at pas...
yougov.co.uk
September 15, 2025 at 6:01 PM
I’m using YouGov’s 35k sample post election survey from this yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
If you add all the left and right wing parties together the age trend is pretty clear as day
September 15, 2025 at 5:51 PM
If you add all the left and right wing parties together the age trend is pretty clear as day
If you look at the California high school mock election data (take with the biggest grain of salt you can imagine), you see that the cohort of kids who would have millennial parents seem to be way more Democratic
September 15, 2025 at 5:49 PM
If you look at the California high school mock election data (take with the biggest grain of salt you can imagine), you see that the cohort of kids who would have millennial parents seem to be way more Democratic
I don’t think this is the main story, but I think some of it is just that our parents were boomers and their parents were gen x.
People under 25 are 7% less likely to say their parents were Democrats than 30 year olds.
People under 25 are 7% less likely to say their parents were Democrats than 30 year olds.
September 15, 2025 at 5:46 PM
I don’t think this is the main story, but I think some of it is just that our parents were boomers and their parents were gen x.
People under 25 are 7% less likely to say their parents were Democrats than 30 year olds.
People under 25 are 7% less likely to say their parents were Democrats than 30 year olds.
I think the Gelman model is empirically right but doesn't explain as large a fraction of cohort effects as people think.
Boomers were left wing in every country, Gen X was right wing in every country, millennials were left wing in every country, and now Zoomers are trending right everywhere too.
Boomers were left wing in every country, Gen X was right wing in every country, millennials were left wing in every country, and now Zoomers are trending right everywhere too.
September 15, 2025 at 5:42 PM
I think the Gelman model is empirically right but doesn't explain as large a fraction of cohort effects as people think.
Boomers were left wing in every country, Gen X was right wing in every country, millennials were left wing in every country, and now Zoomers are trending right everywhere too.
Boomers were left wing in every country, Gen X was right wing in every country, millennials were left wing in every country, and now Zoomers are trending right everywhere too.
In general the two biggest predictors of partisanship right now are socioeconomic status and political engagement.
Those two things are also the biggest predictors of answering a political survey. It's a huge issue.
Those two things are also the biggest predictors of answering a political survey. It's a huge issue.
September 15, 2025 at 5:28 PM
In general the two biggest predictors of partisanship right now are socioeconomic status and political engagement.
Those two things are also the biggest predictors of answering a political survey. It's a huge issue.
Those two things are also the biggest predictors of answering a political survey. It's a huge issue.
This is a good thread that someone on my team did that makes the case with public data bsky.app/profile/davi...
1) It's improper to analyze party registration data without taking into account registration date.
Analyzing voter file data both cross-sectionally and within-person, it's clear that non-voters have become much more Republican in recent years relative to voters
Analyzing voter file data both cross-sectionally and within-person, it's clear that non-voters have become much more Republican in recent years relative to voters
September 15, 2025 at 5:27 PM
This is a good thread that someone on my team did that makes the case with public data bsky.app/profile/davi...
The "Harris did better than polls suggested among old voters and worse with young voters" comes through pretty clearly if you look at precinct data.
The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024
The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024
September 15, 2025 at 5:25 PM
The "Harris did better than polls suggested among old voters and worse with young voters" comes through pretty clearly if you look at precinct data.
The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024
The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024
It’s the voter demographic section here from the post election mega YouGov poll weighted to the election results. This is comparing Labour+LibDem+Green+SNP vs Tory + Brexit. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Un...
2024 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
August 25, 2025 at 1:45 PM
It’s the voter demographic section here from the post election mega YouGov poll weighted to the election results. This is comparing Labour+LibDem+Green+SNP vs Tory + Brexit. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Un...
Shows up in polling data too bsky.app/profile/davi...
I did an all left vs all right comparison and saw the same thing in the UK - I think the same is true in Canada from eyeballing but haven't checked too closely
August 25, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Shows up in polling data too bsky.app/profile/davi...