@wavebidder.bsky.social
Applied Mathematician turned infectious disease forecaster. Generally EA aligned.
Reposted
I think these arguments are extremely popular not because they are particularly convincing but because they create a permission structure for what people perceive as the fun thing
what do you make of the theory i’ve seen in various places that nonviolence really only works when it has a violent wing to back it up? “how to blow up a pipeline” argues that many successful nonviolent movements had such an arrangement
February 2, 2026 at 12:28 PM
I think these arguments are extremely popular not because they are particularly convincing but because they create a permission structure for what people perceive as the fun thing
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How shocking.
The Sunday Herald, 21 May 2000:
The Sunday Herald, 21 May 2000:
February 1, 2026 at 4:43 PM
How shocking.
The Sunday Herald, 21 May 2000:
The Sunday Herald, 21 May 2000:
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one of the things i try to get at in this piece is how many people have imbibed a totally false history of how the russian revolution happened. the bolsheviks tried armed insurrection and got *crushed.* they succeeded when they worked by other means!
www.liberalcurrents.com/from-powerle...
www.liberalcurrents.com/from-powerle...
February 2, 2026 at 2:02 PM
one of the things i try to get at in this piece is how many people have imbibed a totally false history of how the russian revolution happened. the bolsheviks tried armed insurrection and got *crushed.* they succeeded when they worked by other means!
www.liberalcurrents.com/from-powerle...
www.liberalcurrents.com/from-powerle...
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A key thing to remember when seeing that measles is in the concentration camps, is that covid killed more cops than any other cause.
Cops are superspreaders, a gestapo jumping around the country to terrorize one city after another, kidnapping people into concentration camps, is a perfect storm.
Cops are superspreaders, a gestapo jumping around the country to terrorize one city after another, kidnapping people into concentration camps, is a perfect storm.
February 2, 2026 at 4:02 AM
A key thing to remember when seeing that measles is in the concentration camps, is that covid killed more cops than any other cause.
Cops are superspreaders, a gestapo jumping around the country to terrorize one city after another, kidnapping people into concentration camps, is a perfect storm.
Cops are superspreaders, a gestapo jumping around the country to terrorize one city after another, kidnapping people into concentration camps, is a perfect storm.
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i think this is a key thing that makes "abolish ICE and undo DHS" good policy in and of itself
these killers are not fresh recruits, they're just existing guys who got the go ahead to be vicious thugs and pounced on the opportunity
these killers are not fresh recruits, they're just existing guys who got the go ahead to be vicious thugs and pounced on the opportunity
Both of the agents responsible for killing Alex Pretti were hired long before the current surge where “training” could be a culprit.
The rot in Border Patrol and DHS at large runs very deep. There has to be a reckoning soon where we look at what we’ve created and how we got here /
The rot in Border Patrol and DHS at large runs very deep. There has to be a reckoning soon where we look at what we’ve created and how we got here /
BREAKING: The two federal immigration agents who fired on Minneapolis protester Alex Pretti are identified in government records as Border Patrol agent Jesus Ochoa and Customs and Border Protection officer Raymundo Gutierrez.
February 1, 2026 at 10:19 PM
i think this is a key thing that makes "abolish ICE and undo DHS" good policy in and of itself
these killers are not fresh recruits, they're just existing guys who got the go ahead to be vicious thugs and pounced on the opportunity
these killers are not fresh recruits, they're just existing guys who got the go ahead to be vicious thugs and pounced on the opportunity
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Please stop sharing this, it is from last year and there’s currently a fight in the Florida legislature to stop it
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
February 2, 2026 at 12:41 AM
Please stop sharing this, it is from last year and there’s currently a fight in the Florida legislature to stop it
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
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Winter lays bare all the ways our communities fail anyone who is not in a car
Day 8 - lanes for cars have been clear for days, but sidewalks and bike lanes are still completely impassable, forcing people to walk in the road on a 6-lane highway to get across the river.
February 2, 2026 at 12:29 AM
Winter lays bare all the ways our communities fail anyone who is not in a car
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I'm actually sad that there aren't more *un*realistic depictions of NIST in media.
"Mr. President, if the terrorists obtain THE KILOGRAM, our entire industrial society, based on measurement, will fall apart. We must stop them long enough to allow Project PENTAGRAM to complete."
"Mr. President, if the terrorists obtain THE KILOGRAM, our entire industrial society, based on measurement, will fall apart. We must stop them long enough to allow Project PENTAGRAM to complete."
February 1, 2026 at 9:08 PM
I'm actually sad that there aren't more *un*realistic depictions of NIST in media.
"Mr. President, if the terrorists obtain THE KILOGRAM, our entire industrial society, based on measurement, will fall apart. We must stop them long enough to allow Project PENTAGRAM to complete."
"Mr. President, if the terrorists obtain THE KILOGRAM, our entire industrial society, based on measurement, will fall apart. We must stop them long enough to allow Project PENTAGRAM to complete."
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i would watch that
or a procedural of NIST
or a procedural of NIST
February 1, 2026 at 9:02 PM
i would watch that
or a procedural of NIST
or a procedural of NIST
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Even better with Disco Elysium music.
A clinically depressed newscaster with Disco Elysium music
YouTube video by AILLBREAKFAST
m.youtube.com
February 1, 2026 at 10:08 PM
Even better with Disco Elysium music.
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with the revelation that Pretti and Good's murders combined for 30 years of DHS experience I am forced to concede one similarity between our moment and 30s Germany - the state paramilitaries were led by a core of hardened killers that every new recruit molded themselves around.
February 1, 2026 at 10:07 PM
with the revelation that Pretti and Good's murders combined for 30 years of DHS experience I am forced to concede one similarity between our moment and 30s Germany - the state paramilitaries were led by a core of hardened killers that every new recruit molded themselves around.
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You never ever ever violate guestright. Mythology and literature is *filled* with “ohhhh boy, now you’re properly fucked” cautionary tales.
Thinking about whoever said that by accepting a meal from people and then arresting them ICE agents broke a cultural taboo that was invented by, like, the first humans to set up a tent
February 1, 2026 at 6:33 PM
You never ever ever violate guestright. Mythology and literature is *filled* with “ohhhh boy, now you’re properly fucked” cautionary tales.
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DFL legislators need to insist on a compensation fund of tens of millions of dollars to offset economic harms of the ICE siege. It infuriates me that Mercado Central has to hold a $500,000 bake sale to hold onto their building. Tens of fucking millions.
February 1, 2026 at 2:40 PM
DFL legislators need to insist on a compensation fund of tens of millions of dollars to offset economic harms of the ICE siege. It infuriates me that Mercado Central has to hold a $500,000 bake sale to hold onto their building. Tens of fucking millions.
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“If you were brought here to be exploited as a labor resource, why should you have the rights of citizens? Exploited labor != citizen.”
It’s confederate logic, it’s anti-universal white male suffrage logic if we really want to be honest. Imagine being too racist for Andrew Jackson.
It’s confederate logic, it’s anti-universal white male suffrage logic if we really want to be honest. Imagine being too racist for Andrew Jackson.
February 1, 2026 at 2:23 PM
“If you were brought here to be exploited as a labor resource, why should you have the rights of citizens? Exploited labor != citizen.”
It’s confederate logic, it’s anti-universal white male suffrage logic if we really want to be honest. Imagine being too racist for Andrew Jackson.
It’s confederate logic, it’s anti-universal white male suffrage logic if we really want to be honest. Imagine being too racist for Andrew Jackson.
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one of the key motions of protest is that it places the adversary in zugzwang: either they abide the protest, and look weak, or attack the protest, and look cruel
February 1, 2026 at 5:49 AM
one of the key motions of protest is that it places the adversary in zugzwang: either they abide the protest, and look weak, or attack the protest, and look cruel
the suburban police chiefs are doing observation
Part of the problem with Trump’s deportation goons is that they believe the lies he and his senior officials have spouted about ICE protesters.
Here’s a particularly embarrassing episode featuring a suburban police chief near St. Paul. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/u...
Here’s a particularly embarrassing episode featuring a suburban police chief near St. Paul. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/u...
January 31, 2026 at 11:51 PM
the suburban police chiefs are doing observation
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THIRTY FOUR THOUSAND
More than 34,000 Minnesotans signed up to be trained as ICED observers with various activist groups in recent weeks, many of them since Jan. 7, when a federal agent shot and killed Renée Good.
Thousands of new ICE watchers hit the streets after two killings
Minnesotans outraged by the killings of Renée Good and Alex Pretti have signed up in large numbers to monitor and protest ICE with other activists.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 31, 2026 at 8:35 PM
THIRTY FOUR THOUSAND
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I don't like to talk about stories before they are fully reported, but I am writing on ICE in a Minnesota town that isn't Minneapolis. However bad you think it is, it is worse. It is a campaign of pure terror whose only strategic goal is more terror. There is no strategy other than to break people.
January 31, 2026 at 9:03 PM
I don't like to talk about stories before they are fully reported, but I am writing on ICE in a Minnesota town that isn't Minneapolis. However bad you think it is, it is worse. It is a campaign of pure terror whose only strategic goal is more terror. There is no strategy other than to break people.
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Judge Biery signed the order with a photo of Liam and two bible verses: The first is "But Jesus said, Suffer little children, and forbid them not, to come unto me: for of such is the kingdom of heaven." The second is simply "Jesus wept."
Astonishing thing for a judge to do.
Astonishing thing for a judge to do.
![Philadelphia, September 17, 1787: "Well, Dr. Franklin, what do we have?" "A republic, if you
can keep it."
With a judicial finger in the constitutional dike,
It is so ORDERED.
SIGNED this 31st day of February, 2026.
_________________________________________________
FRED BIERY
UNITED STATES DISTRICT JUDGE
[photo of Liam]
Credit: Bystander
Matthew 19:14
John 11:35](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:73t3muu2pudsajp7a2fj3aly/bafkreigfz6fzbu65haq7nfqgaoe7m42gsaonpinpmaaptuzd5atkqvya4i@jpeg)
January 31, 2026 at 8:38 PM
Judge Biery signed the order with a photo of Liam and two bible verses: The first is "But Jesus said, Suffer little children, and forbid them not, to come unto me: for of such is the kingdom of heaven." The second is simply "Jesus wept."
Astonishing thing for a judge to do.
Astonishing thing for a judge to do.
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👀 Looks like the husband of the woman ICE abducted called his lawyer, lawyer called the cops, then the police chief went and got her & took her home
Article says it may be the first time local Minnesota PD "intervened in a federal law enforcement action" since Trump started terrorizing the state
Article says it may be the first time local Minnesota PD "intervened in a federal law enforcement action" since Trump started terrorizing the state
![Screenshot from the quote skeeted article reading as follows:
The husband told MPR News that after his wife was taken into custody, he called his attorney, and soon after, he got a call from St. Peter Chief of Police Matt Grochow, whom he said he has known for years.
“I was talking to him, kind of venting some of my frustrations,” the man said, adding that he urged the chief to have his officers just be more visible during the federal enforcement actions. “If [local police] were present and they could see you, I promise you their behavior more than likely, or hopefully, would, you know, be appropriate and law abiding.”
The husband says he talked to the chief for a while and “we had a good conversation.”
“He asked me, ‘what was your wife's name’? I told him my wife's name. He said, ‘was she picked up in a bronco?’ And I said, ‘I'm not sure, but it was an SUV, dark colored. I'd have to look at my video.’ He goes, ‘I think I got her. I'll call you back’.”
The husband said a few minutes later, the chief called again, “and said, I got her or I'm bringing her home.”
“I was just so relieved that she got released and was able to come home,” he said.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:kjklbsuepdppuppsfluytydl/bafkreigyienimomaibubdhiar3ijsvfacklpw2tqbnjnbphxenb5yvegk4@jpeg)
January 31, 2026 at 4:29 PM
👀 Looks like the husband of the woman ICE abducted called his lawyer, lawyer called the cops, then the police chief went and got her & took her home
Article says it may be the first time local Minnesota PD "intervened in a federal law enforcement action" since Trump started terrorizing the state
Article says it may be the first time local Minnesota PD "intervened in a federal law enforcement action" since Trump started terrorizing the state
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Shit is nuts. This week I spoke to a crim. defense attorney from mpls who mostly does federal work. He said a client got arrested with 19 pounds of meth & an indictment was coming. Then the feds had to forgo the indictment because they don’t have the resources. Walking away from 19 pounds of meth!
They are running out of lawyers.
DM me? We used to get hundreds of highly qualified applicants for a single job posting. Good prosecutors are increasingly hesitant to work for this DOJ.
January 31, 2026 at 6:49 PM
Shit is nuts. This week I spoke to a crim. defense attorney from mpls who mostly does federal work. He said a client got arrested with 19 pounds of meth & an indictment was coming. Then the feds had to forgo the indictment because they don’t have the resources. Walking away from 19 pounds of meth!
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Can confirm. Nothing has changed on the ground. ICE still attacking people, kidnapping, all that stuff—and the city is still out protecting and helping neighbors
Absolutely surreal to continue to hear about drawdowns and lowered temperatures and things calming down in Minneapolis when, as far as I can tell, literally nothing has changed on the ground
January 31, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Can confirm. Nothing has changed on the ground. ICE still attacking people, kidnapping, all that stuff—and the city is still out protecting and helping neighbors
one step closer to sidereal time
Hot take about time - we should have diagonal timezones since earth rotates on an incline
January 31, 2026 at 6:26 AM
one step closer to sidereal time
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finally we’ve invented the Dead Internet from beloved sci fi story Don’t Create the Dead Internet
January 31, 2026 at 4:24 AM
finally we’ve invented the Dead Internet from beloved sci fi story Don’t Create the Dead Internet