Jon Green

@jongreen.bsky.social

4.9K followers 560 following 2.8K posts

Assistant professor, Department of Political Science, Duke University
jgreen4919.github.io

Videos

Political science 25%

Psychology 15%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 15h

CCM’s POV would be something like this?

Reposted by Jon Green, David S. Tanenhaus

ArtButMakeItSports @artbutmakeitsports.bsky.social · 16h

The Vision, from The Quest and Achievement of the Holy Grail, by Edwin Austin Abbey, 1901, 📸 by Noah Graham

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 1d

getting wages to keep pace with prices isn’t frictionless www.nber.org/papers/w32956

Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

Reposted by Steve Peers, Jon Green, Rebecca Tushnet , and 3 more Steve Peers, Jon Green, Rebecca Tushnet, Scott A. Imberman, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Gillian Branstetter @gbbranstetter.bsky.social · 2d

Axios tried to bust James Talarico for following adult content creators on Instagram and I'm genuinely impressed by his campaign's response

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

a jury of his schmears

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

well done

three QTs in a row of jokes responding to the sandwich guy getting acquitted:
- if it wasn't on rye, can't be that guy
- twelve hungry men
- glory glory hoagie threw ya

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

one of the current sticking points in shutdown negotiations is that House Republicans want language that would allow them to block the GAO from suing over impoundment plus.cq.com/doc/news-834...

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

every partisan/ideologue has beliefs they express because they feel them deeply in our bones and beliefs they express — typically sincerely! — because they are cooperating with a group. can be hard to parse what’s what until you see the group context shift

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

former Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger might know something about this dynamic!

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

she’s the same person in a new position within/in relation to her coalition. that this has led her to change some of her stances/postures is interesting!

Adam Kinzinger @adamkinzinger.substack.com · 4d

Please stop falling for the MTG is a new person con.

Please.

Reposted by Jon Green

Adam Kinzinger @adamkinzinger.substack.com · 4d

Please stop falling for the MTG is a new person con.

Please.

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

business-wise there are clearly stronger penalties at this point if a pollster overestimates Democratic performance than there are if they underestimate it. but science-wise, the question of whether this year is a presidential year or the year after a presidential year is…not hard

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

tbc, there was absolutely no reason to expect the electorate to look like 2024

George Pearkes @peark.es · 5d

Good summary of why pollsters whiffed in VA and NJ. TLDR: electorate looked like 2017 when pollsters assumed it would look like 2024, plus Latino turnout exploded.

www.wsj.com/politics/ele...

Pollsters Didn’t See the Blue Wave Coming in New Jersey and Virginia

Pollsters say they miscalculated who would show up to vote and a leftward shift by Latino voters.

www.wsj.com

Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan , and 9 more Jan W. Mueller, Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Jon Green, Andrew Curry, Kevin Carey, Daniel W. Drezner, Rebecca Tushnet, Brian Keegan, Simon Lester, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 4d

Cool. What would you call the other wing then? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/03/u...

“I’m in the ‘Hitler sucks’ wing of the Republican Party,” Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said over the weekend at the R.J.C. event. “Here’s what I do know: You can sit in a basement with weird people and say weird things. It’s a free country.”

Reposted by Jon Green, Scott A. Imberman

George Pearkes @peark.es · 5d

Good summary of why pollsters whiffed in VA and NJ. TLDR: electorate looked like 2017 when pollsters assumed it would look like 2024, plus Latino turnout exploded.

www.wsj.com/politics/ele...

Pollsters Didn’t See the Blue Wave Coming in New Jersey and Virginia

Pollsters say they miscalculated who would show up to vote and a leftward shift by Latino voters.

www.wsj.com

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 5d

the following two takes cleanly divide US politics:

- ZOHRAN MAMDANI got elected mayor of new york city
- zohran mamdani got elected mayor of NEW YORK CITY

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 5d

if I were a Republican drawing new congressional districts last night's results would make me think twice about spreading my voters out across as many Trump +5ish districts as possible

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 7d

it’s the same amount of daylight, we’re just moving it around. more like Daylight Accounting Gimmick Time imo

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, David R. Miller

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 7d

you could convey exactly the same idea by just retweeting the original defense of Carlson's decision to give Fuentes a platform. dressing it up like this doesn't make it any more sophisticated.

Blake Emerson @blakeprof.bsky.social · 7d

Note that “the city” here is “the right.” The rest of us are enemies.

Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Jon Green, Alan Richardson , and 1 more Jan W. Mueller, Jon Green, Alan Richardson, Jacob T. Levy

Blake Emerson @blakeprof.bsky.social · 7d

Note that “the city” here is “the right.” The rest of us are enemies.

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 7d

chart also suggests that long early voting windows may now limit the causal fx of rainfall on turnout in the first place

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 9d

I’ve been hearing people who know football use it for years but I still don’t know how “complementary football” differs in meaning from “be good on offense and also on defense”

Nick Valentino @nickvalentino.bsky.social · 9d

ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...

The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.

2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies

electionstudies.org

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 9d

insisting on referring to Cal’s football team as “Berkeley” as a bit

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 10d

pretty consistent ~1/4 of respondents say Joe Biden presided over the major events of 2020 bsky.app/profile/jlra...

JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 10d

The analysis you've been waiting for: "Do you remember who was actually president when that happened?" Turns out the answer is often...no.

1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.

HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!

yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...

Reposted by Will Jennings, Jon Green, David Darmofal

JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 10d

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 10d

it bothers me a little that I fully understand this tweet when the modal reply to it was "who tf is that"

@zoomer_doomer_ on X: I think people are underestimating just how much her endorsement in the 2028 primaries will matter

[picture of Jennifer Welch]

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 10d

in both my twitter data (2019) and podcasts data (2024) she's squarely liberal

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 10d

at least they also gesture at the fact that grade inflation is a multilayered tragedy of the commons that any one move by one actor is unlikely to solve

The OUE’s 2023 Report on Grading catalogued the various efforts other colleges have made
to alter grading practices. It was not an inspiring list. Yale tried raising awareness, circulating
data about grades in the hopes that this would influence faculty practices. Grades stayed high.
Cornell and Dartmouth tried adding more information, publishing median course grades on
student transcripts in the hopes that this would encourage students to take more demanding
courses. Only the most dedicated students did so. Finally, Princeton and Wellesley tried hard
limits, capping the number of A grades that could be awarded in a single course. Within ten
years, the faculty at both colleges voted to lift the caps. This history might seem to suggest
that grading is an insoluble problem; what it really shows is that grading is a problem too
complex to admit a single solution. Our approach bears that in mind. We are trying
awareness raising, information sharing, and capping A+s all at the same time, and we are
doing more than that as well. By reducing the pressures on grading, by altering the
incentives, and by deciding to act collectively to solve the collective action problem, we can
restore our grading to what it was before the dramatic changes of recent years.

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 10d

for all the hubbub over Harvard's grade inflation report its recommendations are super tame:
- make room at the *top* by allowing some A+ grades
- include class median next to students' grades on the transcript
- change how grades are quantified *internally*

mcusercontent.com/eb85d7a5a3fb...

mcusercontent.com

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