Josh McCrain
@joshmccrain.bsky.social
Political scientist at the University of Utah. Public policy, political institutions, media and politics
So little discussion of Claude code on here. We are experiencing an unprecedented shock to how empirical research is done and it's going to primarily affect grad students
February 12, 2026 at 5:15 PM
So little discussion of Claude code on here. We are experiencing an unprecedented shock to how empirical research is done and it's going to primarily affect grad students
this is extremely interesting
We coded our ~100k articles using LLMs. Should you believe them? To answer this, we benchmarked 4 human RAs against 3 LLMs on their ability to recover ground truth article data. Details in the paper and appendices, but the LLMs did well and handily beat the highly trained humans.
February 11, 2026 at 9:04 PM
this is extremely interesting
new pre-print just dropped!
the nationalization of politics at the local level -- specifically within school districts -- affects turnover of school board members and superintendents.
osf.io/preprints/so...
the nationalization of politics at the local level -- specifically within school districts -- affects turnover of school board members and superintendents.
osf.io/preprints/so...
February 10, 2026 at 8:21 PM
new pre-print just dropped!
the nationalization of politics at the local level -- specifically within school districts -- affects turnover of school board members and superintendents.
osf.io/preprints/so...
the nationalization of politics at the local level -- specifically within school districts -- affects turnover of school board members and superintendents.
osf.io/preprints/so...
continues to blow my mind people use R for data wrangling and don't use the tidyverse
tidyverse.org/blog/2026/02...
tidyverse.org/blog/2026/02...
dplyr 1.2.0
dplyr 1.2.0 fills in some important gaps in dplyr's API: we've added a new complement to `filter()` focused on dropping rows, and we've expanded the `case_when()` family with three new recoding and re...
tidyverse.org
February 5, 2026 at 4:40 PM
continues to blow my mind people use R for data wrangling and don't use the tidyverse
tidyverse.org/blog/2026/02...
tidyverse.org/blog/2026/02...
Excellent incapsulation of bluesky brain
Too many people on Bluesky think that relentless expressions of despair are a sign of intellectual sophistication.
February 4, 2026 at 8:46 PM
Excellent incapsulation of bluesky brain
Reposted by Josh McCrain
🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs"
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
February 3, 2026 at 2:46 PM
🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs"
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
Reposted by Josh McCrain
So much of classic political science research is woefully underpowered.
I'm glad we're slowly coming to our senses.
I'm glad we're slowly coming to our senses.
February 2, 2026 at 7:29 PM
So much of classic political science research is woefully underpowered.
I'm glad we're slowly coming to our senses.
I'm glad we're slowly coming to our senses.
well put
There is a class of AI critics on this website, typically academics, that speak about the tools like it is early 2024.
I'm not asking you to start liking AI. But you sound ridiculous because you're describing things that no one experiences anymore. Get updated.
I'm not asking you to start liking AI. But you sound ridiculous because you're describing things that no one experiences anymore. Get updated.
January 12, 2026 at 5:19 PM
well put
Parenting a toddler over winter break while my wife has to work
January 3, 2026 at 8:50 PM
Parenting a toddler over winter break while my wife has to work
Reposted by Josh McCrain
Trump's bellicosity toward Venezuela is a betrayal of everything that the FIFA Peace Prize stands for.
December 18, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Trump's bellicosity toward Venezuela is a betrayal of everything that the FIFA Peace Prize stands for.
Horrific
The full text tells us that the following exceptions to the immigrant visa restrictions on the travel bans have now been eliminated:
- Immediate relatives (children under 21, spouses, parents) of US citizens
- International adoptions
- Afghan Special Immigrant Visas
- Immediate relatives (children under 21, spouses, parents) of US citizens
- International adoptions
- Afghan Special Immigrant Visas
December 17, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Horrific
there's a huuuuge gap between "using AI for peer review" and "having AI do the peer review for you" fwiw
Just decline the peer review invitation.
What are you people even doing?
What are you people even doing?
More than half of researchers now use AI for peer review — often against guidance
A survey of 1,600 academics found that more than 50% have used artificial-intelligence tools while peer reviewing manuscripts.
www.nature.com
December 16, 2025 at 11:47 PM
there's a huuuuge gap between "using AI for peer review" and "having AI do the peer review for you" fwiw
lots of people responding to this as if it'll get used to replace human samples in academic research. there's no way this is true. this is definitely a tool for testing and simulations -- potentially very valuable here (regardless of what qualtrics is trying to sell it as)
Did you know that from tomorrow, Qualtrics is offering synthetic panels (AI-generated participants)?
Follow me down a rabbit hole I'm calling "doing science is tough and I'm so busy, can't we just make up participants?"
Follow me down a rabbit hole I'm calling "doing science is tough and I'm so busy, can't we just make up participants?"
December 16, 2025 at 7:32 PM
lots of people responding to this as if it'll get used to replace human samples in academic research. there's no way this is true. this is definitely a tool for testing and simulations -- potentially very valuable here (regardless of what qualtrics is trying to sell it as)
some insane numbers in this story.
i asked my office of disability last year when teaching a 420 person class what assistance they provided in meeting each individual accomodation. you can guess the answer.
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
i asked my office of disability last year when teaching a 420 person class what assistance they provided in meeting each individual accomodation. you can guess the answer.
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
December 2, 2025 at 6:48 PM
some insane numbers in this story.
i asked my office of disability last year when teaching a 420 person class what assistance they provided in meeting each individual accomodation. you can guess the answer.
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
i asked my office of disability last year when teaching a 420 person class what assistance they provided in meeting each individual accomodation. you can guess the answer.
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
more broadly, sure untenured faculty teach undergraduates in this environment?
December 1, 2025 at 7:21 PM
more broadly, sure untenured faculty teach undergraduates in this environment?
The implication here is that he put the national guard into a dangerous position (ie a big scary city) , which I think is counter the point wanting to be made
Whether this was random street crime or targeted political violence, I think it was bad for the president to unnecessarily put the National Guard in harm’s way like this. They simply don’t need to be there.
November 26, 2025 at 9:00 PM
The implication here is that he put the national guard into a dangerous position (ie a big scary city) , which I think is counter the point wanting to be made
cool paper. yet another way policing is similar to academia
New article out (w Marcel R, Ben N, and David S) in @pnas.org. We show that young folks who signal interest in becoming cops hold more conservative views on race, multiculturalism, gender, and sexuality, etc.than their peers intending careers in other fields www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Late adolescents entering college intending a career as police officers hold more right-leaning views than their peers | PNAS
One longstanding explanation for bias and excessive force in policing is selection—the
assertion that those who select to work in law enforcement a...
www.pnas.org
November 21, 2025 at 4:49 PM
cool paper. yet another way policing is similar to academia
Incredible. Good thing nobody trusts JAMA *touches ear* oh shit
This one surely has something on offer for every one: In this cross-sectional mediation analysis, the "effects" of soft drink consumption on depression were "mediated" by abundance of Eggerthela in the gut microbiome.
This was sent to me via dm and now you all got to suffer as well.
This was sent to me via dm and now you all got to suffer as well.
Soft Drink Consumption and Depression Mediated by Gut Microbiome Alterations
This cohort study examines the association between soft drink consumption and major depressive disorder diagnosis and severity and whether this association is mediated by changes in the gut microbiota...
jamanetwork.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:01 AM
Incredible. Good thing nobody trusts JAMA *touches ear* oh shit
my perspective on this (which is not particularly novel) is that we will need to move exclusively to: a) mail-based samples (or samples that can verify something concrete like voter file); b) in person samples (back to undergraduates); c) elite samples (oof)
of course, lots of unknowns here
of course, lots of unknowns here
new paper by Sean Westwood:
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
November 18, 2025 at 8:00 PM
my perspective on this (which is not particularly novel) is that we will need to move exclusively to: a) mail-based samples (or samples that can verify something concrete like voter file); b) in person samples (back to undergraduates); c) elite samples (oof)
of course, lots of unknowns here
of course, lots of unknowns here
new paper by Sean Westwood:
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
November 18, 2025 at 7:16 PM
new paper by Sean Westwood:
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
this story is WILD
“Lame duck session” was out, because “lame” was offensive. Even “Americans” should be avoided, the guide said, because it excluded non-U. S. citizens.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
“Lame duck session” was out, because “lame” was offensive. Even “Americans” should be avoided, the guide said, because it excluded non-U. S. citizens.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
The Sierra Club Embraced Social Justice. Then It Tore Itself Apart.
www.nytimes.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:13 PM
this story is WILD
“Lame duck session” was out, because “lame” was offensive. Even “Americans” should be avoided, the guide said, because it excluded non-U. S. citizens.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
“Lame duck session” was out, because “lame” was offensive. Even “Americans” should be avoided, the guide said, because it excluded non-U. S. citizens.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
it's also possible to convince voters of this! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 7, 2025 at 4:52 PM
it's also possible to convince voters of this! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Josh McCrain
PRL welcomes postdoc applications at Dartmouth for 2026-2027. Work with @seanjwestwood.bsky.social & @ylelkes.bsky.social on projects like www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... and elite rhetoric analysis using americaspoliticalpulse.com/elites/
Pls apply by Jan 5 on Interfolio 🙏 apply.interfolio.com/175722
Pls apply by Jan 5 on Interfolio 🙏 apply.interfolio.com/175722
Elected Officials
americaspoliticalpulse.com
November 4, 2025 at 8:52 PM
PRL welcomes postdoc applications at Dartmouth for 2026-2027. Work with @seanjwestwood.bsky.social & @ylelkes.bsky.social on projects like www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... and elite rhetoric analysis using americaspoliticalpulse.com/elites/
Pls apply by Jan 5 on Interfolio 🙏 apply.interfolio.com/175722
Pls apply by Jan 5 on Interfolio 🙏 apply.interfolio.com/175722
absolutely brutal
October 27, 2025 at 9:25 PM
absolutely brutal