Brad LeVeck
@bradleveck.bsky.social
political scientist at UC Merced
Likes: 🌄📸, 🧠🔄🧠, 📊🧪
faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck
Likes: 🌄📸, 🧠🔄🧠, 📊🧪
faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Terence Tao gets it:
"AI is teaching us...our idea of what intelligence is is not really accurate"
"we were looking for some elusive intelligent way of of thinking and we don't see it in the tools that actually solve our goals...maybe it's actually because intelligence is not what we think it is"
"AI is teaching us...our idea of what intelligence is is not really accurate"
"we were looking for some elusive intelligent way of of thinking and we don't see it in the tools that actually solve our goals...maybe it's actually because intelligence is not what we think it is"
Can AI Prove It? Terence Tao on “Big Math” and Our Theoretical Future | The Futurology Podcast
YouTube video by Berggruen Institute
youtu.be
January 26, 2026 at 11:18 PM
Terence Tao gets it:
"AI is teaching us...our idea of what intelligence is is not really accurate"
"we were looking for some elusive intelligent way of of thinking and we don't see it in the tools that actually solve our goals...maybe it's actually because intelligence is not what we think it is"
"AI is teaching us...our idea of what intelligence is is not really accurate"
"we were looking for some elusive intelligent way of of thinking and we don't see it in the tools that actually solve our goals...maybe it's actually because intelligence is not what we think it is"
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
relevant (genuine, because budget execution is not my area) Q I've been mulling: how likely is it that DHS has actually segregated the OBBBA $ from the discretionary $ such that they can accurately claim facts consistent with the rider not applying (if, indeed, that's the correct legal argument)?
January 26, 2026 at 11:32 PM
relevant (genuine, because budget execution is not my area) Q I've been mulling: how likely is it that DHS has actually segregated the OBBBA $ from the discretionary $ such that they can accurately claim facts consistent with the rider not applying (if, indeed, that's the correct legal argument)?
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
We’re being governed by belligerently ignorant people
January 26, 2026 at 8:32 PM
We’re being governed by belligerently ignorant people
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
To expand, at some point it would need to go get more skills, say, or build better chips, or get better power supply, or create whole new software primitives, things which aren't just in their current capability set. Think OpenAI today vs OpenAI 3 years ago. That's the gap.
January 26, 2026 at 6:42 PM
To expand, at some point it would need to go get more skills, say, or build better chips, or get better power supply, or create whole new software primitives, things which aren't just in their current capability set. Think OpenAI today vs OpenAI 3 years ago. That's the gap.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
If we could say, "claude, make opus 6 better at coding, make no mistakes" and have it do that, how many iterations of that could we get before it will need human intervention? is it opus 7? 8? 10?
We could imagine it extending forever, sure, but that's unlikely
We could imagine it extending forever, sure, but that's unlikely
January 26, 2026 at 6:42 PM
If we could say, "claude, make opus 6 better at coding, make no mistakes" and have it do that, how many iterations of that could we get before it will need human intervention? is it opus 7? 8? 10?
We could imagine it extending forever, sure, but that's unlikely
We could imagine it extending forever, sure, but that's unlikely
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Open Position: Knight Postdoctoral Fellow at Wharton School: Expertise in the quantitative study of the information ecosystem, especially news, media, and advertising.
infodem.upenn.edu/wharton-post...
infodem.upenn.edu/wharton-post...
Wharton-Postdoc - Center on Media, Technology and Democracy
infodem.upenn.edu
January 26, 2026 at 4:28 PM
Open Position: Knight Postdoctoral Fellow at Wharton School: Expertise in the quantitative study of the information ecosystem, especially news, media, and advertising.
infodem.upenn.edu/wharton-post...
infodem.upenn.edu/wharton-post...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
just amazing work by my colleagues at @wsj.com - a frame by frame analysis of the shooting
incredible that some continue to rationalize this
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
incredible that some continue to rationalize this
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
Videos Contradict U.S. Account of Minneapolis Shooting by Federal Agents
See how immigration officers escalated a fatal confrontation on Saturday.
www.wsj.com
January 25, 2026 at 6:10 PM
just amazing work by my colleagues at @wsj.com - a frame by frame analysis of the shooting
incredible that some continue to rationalize this
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
incredible that some continue to rationalize this
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Interesting to watch online conservatives look for an offramp without handing it to the libs and they appear to be landing on the Second Amendment.
January 25, 2026 at 12:16 AM
Interesting to watch online conservatives look for an offramp without handing it to the libs and they appear to be landing on the Second Amendment.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
The scam PAC Democrat grifter operations have to end. ActBlue needs to do some minimal vetting of these entities raising funds under their name.
January 24, 2026 at 10:03 PM
The scam PAC Democrat grifter operations have to end. ActBlue needs to do some minimal vetting of these entities raising funds under their name.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
I voted to impeach Trump for abusing his power to undermine the 2020 election. A healthy democracy depends on leaders respecting voters.
Trump and his allies have repeatedly tried to rig the system. Utah voters passed Prop 4 to restore trust in our democracy.
Don’t sign this petition.
Trump and his allies have repeatedly tried to rig the system. Utah voters passed Prop 4 to restore trust in our democracy.
Don’t sign this petition.
January 24, 2026 at 12:48 AM
I voted to impeach Trump for abusing his power to undermine the 2020 election. A healthy democracy depends on leaders respecting voters.
Trump and his allies have repeatedly tried to rig the system. Utah voters passed Prop 4 to restore trust in our democracy.
Don’t sign this petition.
Trump and his allies have repeatedly tried to rig the system. Utah voters passed Prop 4 to restore trust in our democracy.
Don’t sign this petition.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Imagine writing this IRB application.
RFK Jr. appointee Kirk Milhoan has just clearly stated, out loud, that he wants to experiment on the people of the United States by seeing what happens as vaccination coverage plummets and infectious diseases spread.
January 23, 2026 at 3:20 AM
Imagine writing this IRB application.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Let's assume that the skeptics were right and that Trump's threats toward Greenland were never serious.
Allies are still noticing that Congress was willing to let the executive threaten a NATO ally.
"Aren't you guys going to do anything about this?" remains the underlying trust problem.
Allies are still noticing that Congress was willing to let the executive threaten a NATO ally.
"Aren't you guys going to do anything about this?" remains the underlying trust problem.
January 21, 2026 at 4:08 PM
Let's assume that the skeptics were right and that Trump's threats toward Greenland were never serious.
Allies are still noticing that Congress was willing to let the executive threaten a NATO ally.
"Aren't you guys going to do anything about this?" remains the underlying trust problem.
Allies are still noticing that Congress was willing to let the executive threaten a NATO ally.
"Aren't you guys going to do anything about this?" remains the underlying trust problem.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Who here nostalgic for Reader?
January 20, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Who here nostalgic for Reader?
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
This is exactly how we will find out.
Everyone in his inner circle would be insider trading trading on his death on Kalshi before turning the plane around
January 21, 2026 at 4:29 AM
This is exactly how we will find out.
I'd guess this is less about the very small chance of a shooting war breaking out and more about a permanent downgrade in US/EU security/trade relations, and the resulting instability.
Which is very bad since that's less likely to bounce back when Trump (very likely) chickens out.
Which is very bad since that's less likely to bounce back when Trump (very likely) chickens out.
Some perspective: The S&P opened down -1.3% on Trump's Greenland saber-rattling. That's $750 billion of wealth destroyed -- roughly equal to estimates of the value of Greenland.
And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
January 21, 2026 at 4:29 AM
I'd guess this is less about the very small chance of a shooting war breaking out and more about a permanent downgrade in US/EU security/trade relations, and the resulting instability.
Which is very bad since that's less likely to bounce back when Trump (very likely) chickens out.
Which is very bad since that's less likely to bounce back when Trump (very likely) chickens out.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
The Insurrection Act in no way whatsoever suspends, closes, or bypasses the courts. It is not a suspension of habeas corpus. It is not martial law. It does not authorize rule by decree. It allows using troops for law enforcement but that's it. It's not an instant dictatorship switch.
Trump on the Insurrection Act: "It does make life a lot easier. You don't through the court system. It's just a much easier thing to do."
January 21, 2026 at 3:17 AM
The Insurrection Act in no way whatsoever suspends, closes, or bypasses the courts. It is not a suspension of habeas corpus. It is not martial law. It does not authorize rule by decree. It allows using troops for law enforcement but that's it. It's not an instant dictatorship switch.
This is one of the bravest things I have seen.
Watch that. And then tell me how we replace Schumer with her
January 21, 2026 at 3:55 AM
This is one of the bravest things I have seen.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
It’s cold comfort right now but, if past is prologue, spectacles of violence committed by the state against sympathetic civilians—especially when captured on camera—were the beginning of the end for Bull Connor and Jim Crow, too.
January 14, 2026 at 1:46 AM
It’s cold comfort right now but, if past is prologue, spectacles of violence committed by the state against sympathetic civilians—especially when captured on camera—were the beginning of the end for Bull Connor and Jim Crow, too.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Submission deadline for our Machine+Behavior conference (May 18-19) is approaching.
Abstract submission: February 8
Notification: February 23
Hope to see you in Berlin this Spring.
machinebehavior.science
Abstract submission: February 8
Notification: February 23
Hope to see you in Berlin this Spring.
machinebehavior.science
Machine+Behavior Conference
Welcome to the forefront of behavioral science in the digital age.
machinebehavior.science
January 19, 2026 at 7:12 PM
Submission deadline for our Machine+Behavior conference (May 18-19) is approaching.
Abstract submission: February 8
Notification: February 23
Hope to see you in Berlin this Spring.
machinebehavior.science
Abstract submission: February 8
Notification: February 23
Hope to see you in Berlin this Spring.
machinebehavior.science
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
By analyzing $4 trillion of shipments between January 2024 and November 2025, researchers found that foreign exporters absorbed only about 4% of the burden of last year’s U.S. tariff increases by lowering their prices, while American consumers and importers absorbed 96%.
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
Americans Are the Ones Paying for Tariffs, Study Finds
New research contradicts President Trump’s claim that foreigners are footing the bill.
www.wsj.com
January 19, 2026 at 5:04 PM
By analyzing $4 trillion of shipments between January 2024 and November 2025, researchers found that foreign exporters absorbed only about 4% of the burden of last year’s U.S. tariff increases by lowering their prices, while American consumers and importers absorbed 96%.
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
The deadline is here! Last call for applications to the Chicago School in Experimental Economics in Japan. This free summer school will take place June 22–26, 2026 at the University of Osaka.
Apply here: voices.uchicago.edu/jlist/the-ch...
Questions? Contact melissade4@uchicago.edu
Apply here: voices.uchicago.edu/jlist/the-ch...
Questions? Contact melissade4@uchicago.edu
The Chicago School in Experimental Economics 2026 | John List
voices.uchicago.edu
January 19, 2026 at 5:12 PM
The deadline is here! Last call for applications to the Chicago School in Experimental Economics in Japan. This free summer school will take place June 22–26, 2026 at the University of Osaka.
Apply here: voices.uchicago.edu/jlist/the-ch...
Questions? Contact melissade4@uchicago.edu
Apply here: voices.uchicago.edu/jlist/the-ch...
Questions? Contact melissade4@uchicago.edu
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Theory: hockey fans develop a better sense of expected value and are less results-oriented, because of the nature of the game.
blog.mattglassman.net/process-vs-o...
blog.mattglassman.net/process-vs-o...
process vs. outcome
Thesis: hockey, relative to other American sports, has a much higher percentage of players/coaches/fans who intuitively understand and think in terms of expe...
blog.mattglassman.net
January 18, 2026 at 10:34 PM
Theory: hockey fans develop a better sense of expected value and are less results-oriented, because of the nature of the game.
blog.mattglassman.net/process-vs-o...
blog.mattglassman.net/process-vs-o...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
P(A, B)
Wholesome. Embodied. Possesses intelligence. Truly knows true things.
P(B|A) P(A)
Idiot word guesser. Does not possess intelligence. Can never do anything useful. Also eats water for some reason.
Wholesome. Embodied. Possesses intelligence. Truly knows true things.
P(B|A) P(A)
Idiot word guesser. Does not possess intelligence. Can never do anything useful. Also eats water for some reason.
Córy Doctorow with another verbal bullseye: pluralistic.net/2026/01/13/n...
January 18, 2026 at 8:33 PM
P(A, B)
Wholesome. Embodied. Possesses intelligence. Truly knows true things.
P(B|A) P(A)
Idiot word guesser. Does not possess intelligence. Can never do anything useful. Also eats water for some reason.
Wholesome. Embodied. Possesses intelligence. Truly knows true things.
P(B|A) P(A)
Idiot word guesser. Does not possess intelligence. Can never do anything useful. Also eats water for some reason.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Continuing to have AI build a weird game demo a day. Here is: "Make a game where you have to prevent the apocalypse, but the interface is just Jira tickets"
Pretty fun/funny branching storyline, all text is AI created with minor feedback from me. Play: gentle-bienenstitch-01e24b.netlify.app
Pretty fun/funny branching storyline, all text is AI created with minor feedback from me. Play: gentle-bienenstitch-01e24b.netlify.app
January 17, 2026 at 7:23 PM
Continuing to have AI build a weird game demo a day. Here is: "Make a game where you have to prevent the apocalypse, but the interface is just Jira tickets"
Pretty fun/funny branching storyline, all text is AI created with minor feedback from me. Play: gentle-bienenstitch-01e24b.netlify.app
Pretty fun/funny branching storyline, all text is AI created with minor feedback from me. Play: gentle-bienenstitch-01e24b.netlify.app