Nick Timiraos
@nicktimiraos.bsky.social
Chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal
Kugler resigned from the Fed this summer after it became clear that prohibited stock trading activities (she said they were done by her husband without her knowledge) were far more widespread than initially reported www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Kugler Resignation From Fed Board Followed Disclosures of Improper Stock Trades
New disclosures show that Kugler made several stock transactions that violated Fed policies and prompted an ethics probe.
www.wsj.com
November 15, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Kugler resigned from the Fed this summer after it became clear that prohibited stock trading activities (she said they were done by her husband without her knowledge) were far more widespread than initially reported www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he would retire when his current five-year term expires at the end of next February, avoiding a possibly messy internal row over his reappointment
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Atlanta Fed President Bostic to Retire Ahead of Reappointment Process
The regional bank leader plans to step down when his current five-year term expires at the end of next February.
www.wsj.com
November 12, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he would retire when his current five-year term expires at the end of next February, avoiding a possibly messy internal row over his reappointment
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
ADP said it is “actively working with the Fed” to enhance unspecified processes that would allow it resume sharing aggregated microdata. ADP suspended its long-running Fed collaboration following a speech that gave a generalized readout of Fed-curated realtime ADP data.
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Fed Lost Access to Private Jobs Data Ahead of Government Shutdown
Payroll processing firm ADP ended its data-sharing with the central bank after a speech highlighted the already-public collaboration.
www.wsj.com
October 23, 2025 at 2:06 PM
ADP said it is “actively working with the Fed” to enhance unspecified processes that would allow it resume sharing aggregated microdata. ADP suspended its long-running Fed collaboration following a speech that gave a generalized readout of Fed-curated realtime ADP data.
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
New at the Fed’s Jackson Hole event this year: Greater nervousness about the future of the institution amid Trump’s effort to take another board seat
“This should be seen for what it is: a blatant shakedown and an attempt to strong-arm policymakers into lowering rates.”
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
“This should be seen for what it is: a blatant shakedown and an attempt to strong-arm policymakers into lowering rates.”
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com
August 24, 2025 at 6:04 PM
New at the Fed’s Jackson Hole event this year: Greater nervousness about the future of the institution amid Trump’s effort to take another board seat
“This should be seen for what it is: a blatant shakedown and an attempt to strong-arm policymakers into lowering rates.”
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
“This should be seen for what it is: a blatant shakedown and an attempt to strong-arm policymakers into lowering rates.”
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
At a speech in New York two weeks ago, Fed governor Chris Waller publicly laid out the case to cut. He told at least one associate that, ahead of his remarks, he indicated privately to Fed Chair Jay Powell that he would dissent at this week’s meeting.
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
A Divided Fed Eyes Future Rate Cuts but Won’t Move This Week
Officials are split into three camps over what economic evidence they need before resuming rate reductions. Two governors are prepared to dissent on Wednesday.
www.wsj.com
July 29, 2025 at 10:23 AM
At a speech in New York two weeks ago, Fed governor Chris Waller publicly laid out the case to cut. He told at least one associate that, ahead of his remarks, he indicated privately to Fed Chair Jay Powell that he would dissent at this week’s meeting.
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Kevin Hassett, one of Trump’s closest economic advisers, is emerging as a serious contender to be the next Fed chair.
Hassett’s rise threatens the other Kevin—former Fed governor Kevin Warsh—who has angled for the position ever since Trump passed him over for it eight years ago.
Hassett’s rise threatens the other Kevin—former Fed governor Kevin Warsh—who has angled for the position ever since Trump passed him over for it eight years ago.
Exclusive | Two Kevins Battle to Be Next Fed Chair in Trump’s ‘Apprentice’-Style Contest
Kevin Hassett has emerged as a contender to succeed Jerome Powell, posing a possible threat to Kevin Warsh, an early favorite
www.wsj.com
July 9, 2025 at 1:26 AM
Kevin Hassett, one of Trump’s closest economic advisers, is emerging as a serious contender to be the next Fed chair.
Hassett’s rise threatens the other Kevin—former Fed governor Kevin Warsh—who has angled for the position ever since Trump passed him over for it eight years ago.
Hassett’s rise threatens the other Kevin—former Fed governor Kevin Warsh—who has angled for the position ever since Trump passed him over for it eight years ago.
NEW: President Trump’s exasperation over the Federal Reserve’s take-it-slow approach to cutting interest rates is prompting him to consider accelerating when he will announce his pick to succeed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term runs for another 11 months www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Exclusive | Trump Considers Naming Next Fed Chair Early in Bid to Undermine Powell
Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and Scott Bessent are among those under consideration as Trump evaluates their commitment to cutting rates—and ‘made-for-TV’ appeal.
www.wsj.com
June 25, 2025 at 11:49 PM
NEW: President Trump’s exasperation over the Federal Reserve’s take-it-slow approach to cutting interest rates is prompting him to consider accelerating when he will announce his pick to succeed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term runs for another 11 months www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Powell kicks off testimony to lawmakers facing an emerging rift over how long to stay on hold on rate cuts and unusually harsh presidential criticism
The message in his prepared remarks is very even handed. No change from last week’s presser
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
The message in his prepared remarks is very even handed. No change from last week’s presser
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Powell Reaffirms Wait-and-See Posture on Rate Cuts, Citing Solid Economy
The Fed chair is set to testify Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee. The hearings follow an emerging rift within the Fed on rate cuts and sharp criticism from Trump.
www.wsj.com
June 24, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Powell kicks off testimony to lawmakers facing an emerging rift over how long to stay on hold on rate cuts and unusually harsh presidential criticism
The message in his prepared remarks is very even handed. No change from last week’s presser
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
The message in his prepared remarks is very even handed. No change from last week’s presser
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
One way Trump's pressure campaign on the Fed is different from the first term: Potentially more disagreement on the Fed board
Two Fed officials appointed by Trump have become the first to speak out in favor of lowering rates after having supported last week’s decision to hold them steady
Two Fed officials appointed by Trump have become the first to speak out in favor of lowering rates after having supported last week’s decision to hold them steady
Trump’s Relentless Fed Pressure Creates Lose-Lose Scenario for Powell
The Fed chair will appear before Congress this week. How lawmakers respond will be a key gauge of support for central bank independence.
www.wsj.com
June 23, 2025 at 9:32 PM
One way Trump's pressure campaign on the Fed is different from the first term: Potentially more disagreement on the Fed board
Two Fed officials appointed by Trump have become the first to speak out in favor of lowering rates after having supported last week’s decision to hold them steady
Two Fed officials appointed by Trump have become the first to speak out in favor of lowering rates after having supported last week’s decision to hold them steady
Fed governor Chris Waller continues to stake out the most dovish position of FOMC voters
"I’m all in favor of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don’t want to wait till the job market tanks before we start cutting the policy rate.”
"I’m all in favor of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don’t want to wait till the job market tanks before we start cutting the policy rate.”
Watch CNBC's full interview with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller
CNBC’s Steve Liesman and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, state of the economy, rate path outlook, strength of the labor market, impa...
www.cnbc.com
June 20, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Fed governor Chris Waller continues to stake out the most dovish position of FOMC voters
"I’m all in favor of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don’t want to wait till the job market tanks before we start cutting the policy rate.”
"I’m all in favor of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don’t want to wait till the job market tanks before we start cutting the policy rate.”
The US economy, which weathered false recession alarms in 2023 and 2024, is entering another uncomfortable summer
“Where this goes all depends on what Trump decides to do next and candidly even Trump doesn’t know what Trump will do next. So it’s almost impossible to see where this thing is heading”
“Where this goes all depends on what Trump decides to do next and candidly even Trump doesn’t know what Trump will do next. So it’s almost impossible to see where this thing is heading”
The U.S. Economy Is Headed Toward an Uncomfortable Summer <br>
Companies say they are freezing hiring and investment to deal with shifting tariff policies, which is compounding an uneasy equilibrium in the labor market.
www.wsj.com
June 8, 2025 at 2:32 PM
The US economy, which weathered false recession alarms in 2023 and 2024, is entering another uncomfortable summer
“Where this goes all depends on what Trump decides to do next and candidly even Trump doesn’t know what Trump will do next. So it’s almost impossible to see where this thing is heading”
“Where this goes all depends on what Trump decides to do next and candidly even Trump doesn’t know what Trump will do next. So it’s almost impossible to see where this thing is heading”
The Senate confirmed Fed governor Miki Bowman as vice chair of bank supervision on a 48-46 vote
Party-line votes for Fed posts used to be rare but are becoming more common
(Michael Barr was confirmed on a 66-28 vote in 2022; Randy Quarles was confirmed on a 65-32 vote in 2017)
Party-line votes for Fed posts used to be rare but are becoming more common
(Michael Barr was confirmed on a 66-28 vote in 2022; Randy Quarles was confirmed on a 65-32 vote in 2017)
June 4, 2025 at 11:36 PM
The Senate confirmed Fed governor Miki Bowman as vice chair of bank supervision on a 48-46 vote
Party-line votes for Fed posts used to be rare but are becoming more common
(Michael Barr was confirmed on a 66-28 vote in 2022; Randy Quarles was confirmed on a 65-32 vote in 2017)
Party-line votes for Fed posts used to be rare but are becoming more common
(Michael Barr was confirmed on a 66-28 vote in 2022; Randy Quarles was confirmed on a 65-32 vote in 2017)
The BLS, which produces the CPI, told economists this week that a hiring freeze led the agency to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices.
Response rates for one data set increased in the April CPI as fewer businesses were surveyed
www.wsj.com/economy/cpi-...
Response rates for one data set increased in the April CPI as fewer businesses were surveyed
www.wsj.com/economy/cpi-...
Exclusive | Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
The Labor Department says staffing shortages reduced its ability to conduct its massive monthly survey, forcing it to turn to less precise guesses.
www.wsj.com
June 4, 2025 at 3:52 PM
The BLS, which produces the CPI, told economists this week that a hiring freeze led the agency to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices.
Response rates for one data set increased in the April CPI as fewer businesses were surveyed
www.wsj.com/economy/cpi-...
Response rates for one data set increased in the April CPI as fewer businesses were surveyed
www.wsj.com/economy/cpi-...
In a 2016 speech, Fischer succinctly summarized the evolution of modern macroeconomics
He began with the economist returning to his alma mater after 50 years who discovers the exam questions are still the same.
“Ah yes,” he's told, “but all the answers are different.”
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
He began with the economist returning to his alma mater after 50 years who discovers the exam questions are still the same.
“Ah yes,” he's told, “but all the answers are different.”
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Stanley Fischer, Groundbreaking Economist and Fed Vice Chair, Dies at 81
The MIT professor’s varied roles helped shape how a generation of central bankers and economic policymakers do their jobs.
www.wsj.com
June 2, 2025 at 1:24 AM
In a 2016 speech, Fischer succinctly summarized the evolution of modern macroeconomics
He began with the economist returning to his alma mater after 50 years who discovers the exam questions are still the same.
“Ah yes,” he's told, “but all the answers are different.”
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
He began with the economist returning to his alma mater after 50 years who discovers the exam questions are still the same.
“Ah yes,” he's told, “but all the answers are different.”
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
The Supreme Court granted President Trump’s emergency request to fire federal commissioners in the face of a law prohibiting their arbitrary removal, but in an unusual move went out of its way to signal that the Federal Reserve was off limits from White House control.
www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...
www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...
Supreme Court Lets Trump Fire Agency Officials, but Moves to Protect Fed
The order suggests justices will soon eliminate congressional power to insulate agencies from political interference.
www.wsj.com
May 23, 2025 at 12:08 AM
The Supreme Court granted President Trump’s emergency request to fire federal commissioners in the face of a law prohibiting their arbitrary removal, but in an unusual move went out of its way to signal that the Federal Reserve was off limits from White House control.
www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...
www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...
This guy is unreal. They had already tied the game down three in the 9th.
The crowd behind him—this looks like a home game lol.
And the way he’s enjoying the moment as much as the fans in the park. Goosebumps, as Vin Scully would have said.
The crowd behind him—this looks like a home game lol.
And the way he’s enjoying the moment as much as the fans in the park. Goosebumps, as Vin Scully would have said.
May 10, 2025 at 2:26 PM
This guy is unreal. They had already tied the game down three in the 9th.
The crowd behind him—this looks like a home game lol.
And the way he’s enjoying the moment as much as the fans in the park. Goosebumps, as Vin Scully would have said.
The crowd behind him—this looks like a home game lol.
And the way he’s enjoying the moment as much as the fans in the park. Goosebumps, as Vin Scully would have said.
Reposted by Nick Timiraos
Not only did the broadcast capture the future pope during a World Series game but with TWO OUT IN THE NINTH.
I have never missed Vin Scully more. As a devout Catholic he would be beside himself and telling the best stories about nuns and baseball that any of us have ever heard.
I have never missed Vin Scully more. As a devout Catholic he would be beside himself and telling the best stories about nuns and baseball that any of us have ever heard.
May 9, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Not only did the broadcast capture the future pope during a World Series game but with TWO OUT IN THE NINTH.
I have never missed Vin Scully more. As a devout Catholic he would be beside himself and telling the best stories about nuns and baseball that any of us have ever heard.
I have never missed Vin Scully more. As a devout Catholic he would be beside himself and telling the best stories about nuns and baseball that any of us have ever heard.
Fed Chair Jay Powell used some version of the word "wait" ("waiting," "await") 22 times at the press conference.
Half of those were "wait and see" re: what to do with interest rates www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Half of those were "wait and see" re: what to do with interest rates www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Fed Warns of Rising Economic Risks as It Leaves Rates Steady
Officials are puzzling over whether to focus on the risks of higher prices or weaker hiring
www.wsj.com
May 7, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Fed Chair Jay Powell used some version of the word "wait" ("waiting," "await") 22 times at the press conference.
Half of those were "wait and see" re: what to do with interest rates www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Half of those were "wait and see" re: what to do with interest rates www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Fed leaves rates unchanged
“The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”
“The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”
May 7, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Fed leaves rates unchanged
“The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”
“The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”
The Fed's dilemma: Navigate a recession or manage a period of stagflation.
The result: “This is not going to be a cycle where the Fed pre-emptively cuts because there’s a forecast of a slowdown. They’re going to actually need to see it in the tangible data."
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
The result: “This is not going to be a cycle where the Fed pre-emptively cuts because there’s a forecast of a slowdown. They’re going to actually need to see it in the tangible data."
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Fed Confronts Lose-Lose Scenario Amid Haphazard Tariff Rollout
The central bank is preparing for difficult judgments and emerging divisions regarding when to cut interest rates. Its two-day policy meeting is this week.
www.wsj.com
May 6, 2025 at 1:17 AM
The Fed's dilemma: Navigate a recession or manage a period of stagflation.
The result: “This is not going to be a cycle where the Fed pre-emptively cuts because there’s a forecast of a slowdown. They’re going to actually need to see it in the tangible data."
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
The result: “This is not going to be a cycle where the Fed pre-emptively cuts because there’s a forecast of a slowdown. They’re going to actually need to see it in the tangible data."
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
The index of aggregate weekly payrolls is a good monthly proxy for nominal income growth and correlates well with nominal GDP growth.
It was up 5.3% on the year in April and has held in a range over the last year that is back to where it was from 2018-19
It was up 5.3% on the year in April and has held in a range over the last year that is back to where it was from 2018-19
May 2, 2025 at 1:38 PM
The index of aggregate weekly payrolls is a good monthly proxy for nominal income growth and correlates well with nominal GDP growth.
It was up 5.3% on the year in April and has held in a range over the last year that is back to where it was from 2018-19
It was up 5.3% on the year in April and has held in a range over the last year that is back to where it was from 2018-19
Labor market flows of people who weren't in the labor force (not working or looking for work) and became employed have rebounded recently, coinciding with the Fed's rate cuts last fall.
May 2, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Labor market flows of people who weren't in the labor force (not working or looking for work) and became employed have rebounded recently, coinciding with the Fed's rate cuts last fall.
Jobs day charts: acyclical vs cyclical hiring
May 2, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Jobs day charts: acyclical vs cyclical hiring