Nick Timiraos
@nicktimiraos.bsky.social
Chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal
🙏 for your patronage
BLS just issued some clarifying material
BLS just issued some clarifying material
June 4, 2025 at 6:44 PM
🙏 for your patronage
BLS just issued some clarifying material
BLS just issued some clarifying material
June 4, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Fed leaves rates unchanged
“The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”
“The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”
May 7, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Fed leaves rates unchanged
“The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”
“The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”
The index of aggregate weekly payrolls is a good monthly proxy for nominal income growth and correlates well with nominal GDP growth.
It was up 5.3% on the year in April and has held in a range over the last year that is back to where it was from 2018-19
It was up 5.3% on the year in April and has held in a range over the last year that is back to where it was from 2018-19
May 2, 2025 at 1:38 PM
The index of aggregate weekly payrolls is a good monthly proxy for nominal income growth and correlates well with nominal GDP growth.
It was up 5.3% on the year in April and has held in a range over the last year that is back to where it was from 2018-19
It was up 5.3% on the year in April and has held in a range over the last year that is back to where it was from 2018-19
Labor market flows of people who weren't in the labor force (not working or looking for work) and became employed have rebounded recently, coinciding with the Fed's rate cuts last fall.
May 2, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Labor market flows of people who weren't in the labor force (not working or looking for work) and became employed have rebounded recently, coinciding with the Fed's rate cuts last fall.
Jobs day charts: acyclical vs cyclical hiring
May 2, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Jobs day charts: acyclical vs cyclical hiring
So was it a soft landing?
April labor market data shows continued resilience. March PCE inflation was 2.3%, 2.6% on core.
April labor market data shows continued resilience. March PCE inflation was 2.3%, 2.6% on core.
May 2, 2025 at 1:32 PM
So was it a soft landing?
April labor market data shows continued resilience. March PCE inflation was 2.3%, 2.6% on core.
April labor market data shows continued resilience. March PCE inflation was 2.3%, 2.6% on core.
Every single comment in the publicly released comments for this month's ISM manufacturing PMI mentions tariffs. Nothing on credit conditions or borrowing costs.
May 1, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Every single comment in the publicly released comments for this month's ISM manufacturing PMI mentions tariffs. Nothing on credit conditions or borrowing costs.
A whiff of stagflation in the April ISM purchasing managers' index survey of manufacturing firms
Prices paid continues to accelerate while new orders and employment remains in contractionary territory. This wasn't the case in 2021, when all were in expansionary territory.
Prices paid continues to accelerate while new orders and employment remains in contractionary territory. This wasn't the case in 2021, when all were in expansionary territory.
May 1, 2025 at 2:49 PM
A whiff of stagflation in the April ISM purchasing managers' index survey of manufacturing firms
Prices paid continues to accelerate while new orders and employment remains in contractionary territory. This wasn't the case in 2021, when all were in expansionary territory.
Prices paid continues to accelerate while new orders and employment remains in contractionary territory. This wasn't the case in 2021, when all were in expansionary territory.
Overall compensation growth looked firmer last year because of a catch-up for union and state & local government workers whose fixed wages lagged behind the big run-up for non-union private-sector workers in 2021-22
April 30, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Overall compensation growth looked firmer last year because of a catch-up for union and state & local government workers whose fixed wages lagged behind the big run-up for non-union private-sector workers in 2021-22
The ECI is the highest quality measure of wage and compensation growth we get, and along every dimension wage growth has cooled to levels we would have envied last decade.
April 30, 2025 at 12:57 PM
The ECI is the highest quality measure of wage and compensation growth we get, and along every dimension wage growth has cooled to levels we would have envied last decade.
You can tell a good story with the GDP numbers (strip out inventories, imports, and government spending and things look about the same as last year) or a bad one (real GDP was negative).
But this doesn't tell us much we didn't already know: The economy was OK before the storm, but a storm is comin'
But this doesn't tell us much we didn't already know: The economy was OK before the storm, but a storm is comin'
April 30, 2025 at 12:56 PM
You can tell a good story with the GDP numbers (strip out inventories, imports, and government spending and things look about the same as last year) or a bad one (real GDP was negative).
But this doesn't tell us much we didn't already know: The economy was OK before the storm, but a storm is comin'
But this doesn't tell us much we didn't already know: The economy was OK before the storm, but a storm is comin'
U.S. national home price growth is running around 4% and shows few signs of accelerating
This is a key difference from 2021, when the Fed's "transitory" inflation forecast ran aground in part because housing markets were on fire.
Prices in Tampa are flat to down.
This is a key difference from 2021, when the Fed's "transitory" inflation forecast ran aground in part because housing markets were on fire.
Prices in Tampa are flat to down.
April 30, 2025 at 12:01 PM
U.S. national home price growth is running around 4% and shows few signs of accelerating
This is a key difference from 2021, when the Fed's "transitory" inflation forecast ran aground in part because housing markets were on fire.
Prices in Tampa are flat to down.
This is a key difference from 2021, when the Fed's "transitory" inflation forecast ran aground in part because housing markets were on fire.
Prices in Tampa are flat to down.
Expectations of a negative headline Q1 GDP print (notwithstanding final sales that are expected to be decent) sent up the odds of a recession, defined as two quarters of negative growth, in Polymarket trading on Tuesday
April 30, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Expectations of a negative headline Q1 GDP print (notwithstanding final sales that are expected to be decent) sent up the odds of a recession, defined as two quarters of negative growth, in Polymarket trading on Tuesday
Manufacturing businesses surveyed by the Dallas Fed this month reported intensifying price pressures and a large increase in economic uncertainty
"The general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020"
"The general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020"
April 28, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Manufacturing businesses surveyed by the Dallas Fed this month reported intensifying price pressures and a large increase in economic uncertainty
"The general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020"
"The general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020"
Univ of Michigan: "After the April 9 partial pause in tariff increases, inflation expectations ebbed but remained substantially elevated relative to March."
April 25, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Univ of Michigan: "After the April 9 partial pause in tariff increases, inflation expectations ebbed but remained substantially elevated relative to March."
United Airlines says the outlook for the U.S. economy is bimodal — weak growth or recession — and it provides guidance under two different economic scenarios as a result
April 15, 2025 at 8:48 PM
United Airlines says the outlook for the U.S. economy is bimodal — weak growth or recession — and it provides guidance under two different economic scenarios as a result
Consumers outlook on the employment market—both overall and their own particular situation—have deteriorated.
April 15, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Consumers outlook on the employment market—both overall and their own particular situation—have deteriorated.
Perceptions of credit access improved after the Fed cut rates last fall but have recently stalled.
Consumers have also turned bearish on the stock market.
Consumers have also turned bearish on the stock market.
April 15, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Perceptions of credit access improved after the Fed cut rates last fall but have recently stalled.
Consumers have also turned bearish on the stock market.
Consumers have also turned bearish on the stock market.
The share of respondents in the New York Fed's consumer survey who thought their household financial situation would improve over the next year surged after the election but has now completely given up those gains.
April 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
The share of respondents in the New York Fed's consumer survey who thought their household financial situation would improve over the next year surged after the election but has now completely given up those gains.
From the University of Michigan survey: Consumer expectations of future economic conditions among Republicans have dropped notably (though are above year-earlier levels).
Independents are back to the low point of the Biden presidency.
Independents are back to the low point of the Biden presidency.
April 11, 2025 at 2:33 PM
From the University of Michigan survey: Consumer expectations of future economic conditions among Republicans have dropped notably (though are above year-earlier levels).
Independents are back to the low point of the Biden presidency.
Independents are back to the low point of the Biden presidency.
It may be regarded by policymakers as a report from a different world given what has happened to tariff policy recently
But the March CPI report was exceptionally cool.
Headline CPI fell -0.05%, and core CPI rose just 0.06%
This lowered the 12-month rate for both measures to a 4-year low
But the March CPI report was exceptionally cool.
Headline CPI fell -0.05%, and core CPI rose just 0.06%
This lowered the 12-month rate for both measures to a 4-year low
April 10, 2025 at 12:36 PM
It may be regarded by policymakers as a report from a different world given what has happened to tariff policy recently
But the March CPI report was exceptionally cool.
Headline CPI fell -0.05%, and core CPI rose just 0.06%
This lowered the 12-month rate for both measures to a 4-year low
But the March CPI report was exceptionally cool.
Headline CPI fell -0.05%, and core CPI rose just 0.06%
This lowered the 12-month rate for both measures to a 4-year low
Forecasters see the March CPI report as fairly tame—the calm before the (imported goods) storm.
If these forecasters are right, then we will see the second-lowest headline CPI reading (2.5%) in four years, and the lowest core CPI reading (3.0%) in four years
If these forecasters are right, then we will see the second-lowest headline CPI reading (2.5%) in four years, and the lowest core CPI reading (3.0%) in four years
April 10, 2025 at 4:25 AM
Forecasters see the March CPI report as fairly tame—the calm before the (imported goods) storm.
If these forecasters are right, then we will see the second-lowest headline CPI reading (2.5%) in four years, and the lowest core CPI reading (3.0%) in four years
If these forecasters are right, then we will see the second-lowest headline CPI reading (2.5%) in four years, and the lowest core CPI reading (3.0%) in four years
The S&P 500 was down another 5.97% today
It lost 10.5% over the last two days, the worst two-day decline since March 12, 2020
It lost 10.5% over the last two days, the worst two-day decline since March 12, 2020
April 4, 2025 at 10:55 PM
The S&P 500 was down another 5.97% today
It lost 10.5% over the last two days, the worst two-day decline since March 12, 2020
It lost 10.5% over the last two days, the worst two-day decline since March 12, 2020
Some Trump economic advisers have characterized prior job growth as being flattered by (and "brittle" due to) government hiring or acyclical health care and education hiring.
This wasn't the case in March. Hiring less government, education, and health services was +132,000.
This wasn't the case in March. Hiring less government, education, and health services was +132,000.
April 4, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Some Trump economic advisers have characterized prior job growth as being flattered by (and "brittle" due to) government hiring or acyclical health care and education hiring.
This wasn't the case in March. Hiring less government, education, and health services was +132,000.
This wasn't the case in March. Hiring less government, education, and health services was +132,000.