Omar Wasow
@owasow.bsky.social
Asst Prof, UC Berkeley, Political Science. Study protests, stats & race: 1/ Agenda Seeding http://j.mp/agenda-seeding 2/ Race as a Bundle of Sticks http://j.mp/bundle-of
Pinned
Omar Wasow
@owasow.bsky.social
· Feb 6
I’ve been studying civil rights protests for 20 years. With new mobilization against Trump’s agenda, I’m sharing a thread summarizing my research on how nonviolent & violent actions by 1960s activists and police influenced media, elites, public opinion & voters. 1/ www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Omar Wasow
Sometimes its more competitive, sometimes it's more authoritarian....
Two things can be true: we’re a competitive authoritarian state with all sorts of efforts to put a thumb on the scale of who has power AND we have sufficiently free and sufficiently fair elections that every month we see the party in power lose.
JUST IN: Democrats flip a red seat in the Texas Senate.
Taylor Rehmet wins against Leigh Wambsganss, a conservative activist who helped lead right-wing efforts to take over TX school boards.
With all early vote, and 95% of precincts, in, Dem up 57/43.
Trump won this seat by 17% in Tarrant County.
Taylor Rehmet wins against Leigh Wambsganss, a conservative activist who helped lead right-wing efforts to take over TX school boards.
With all early vote, and 95% of precincts, in, Dem up 57/43.
Trump won this seat by 17% in Tarrant County.
February 1, 2026 at 5:35 PM
Sometimes its more competitive, sometimes it's more authoritarian....
Reposted by Omar Wasow
Two things can be true: we’re a competitive authoritarian state with all sorts of efforts to put a thumb on the scale of who has power AND we have sufficiently free and sufficiently fair elections that every month we see the party in power lose.
JUST IN: Democrats flip a red seat in the Texas Senate.
Taylor Rehmet wins against Leigh Wambsganss, a conservative activist who helped lead right-wing efforts to take over TX school boards.
With all early vote, and 95% of precincts, in, Dem up 57/43.
Trump won this seat by 17% in Tarrant County.
Taylor Rehmet wins against Leigh Wambsganss, a conservative activist who helped lead right-wing efforts to take over TX school boards.
With all early vote, and 95% of precincts, in, Dem up 57/43.
Trump won this seat by 17% in Tarrant County.
February 1, 2026 at 6:28 AM
Two things can be true: we’re a competitive authoritarian state with all sorts of efforts to put a thumb on the scale of who has power AND we have sufficiently free and sufficiently fair elections that every month we see the party in power lose.
Reposted by Omar Wasow
“People of every color
Marching side to side
Marching ‘cross these fields
Where a million fascists dies
You’re bound to lose
You fascists bound to lose!”
youtu.be/VwcKwGS7OSQ?...
Marching side to side
Marching ‘cross these fields
Where a million fascists dies
You’re bound to lose
You fascists bound to lose!”
youtu.be/VwcKwGS7OSQ?...
February 1, 2026 at 6:41 AM
“People of every color
Marching side to side
Marching ‘cross these fields
Where a million fascists dies
You’re bound to lose
You fascists bound to lose!”
youtu.be/VwcKwGS7OSQ?...
Marching side to side
Marching ‘cross these fields
Where a million fascists dies
You’re bound to lose
You fascists bound to lose!”
youtu.be/VwcKwGS7OSQ?...
Two things can be true: we’re a competitive authoritarian state with all sorts of efforts to put a thumb on the scale of who has power AND we have sufficiently free and sufficiently fair elections that every month we see the party in power lose.
JUST IN: Democrats flip a red seat in the Texas Senate.
Taylor Rehmet wins against Leigh Wambsganss, a conservative activist who helped lead right-wing efforts to take over TX school boards.
With all early vote, and 95% of precincts, in, Dem up 57/43.
Trump won this seat by 17% in Tarrant County.
Taylor Rehmet wins against Leigh Wambsganss, a conservative activist who helped lead right-wing efforts to take over TX school boards.
With all early vote, and 95% of precincts, in, Dem up 57/43.
Trump won this seat by 17% in Tarrant County.
February 1, 2026 at 6:28 AM
Two things can be true: we’re a competitive authoritarian state with all sorts of efforts to put a thumb on the scale of who has power AND we have sufficiently free and sufficiently fair elections that every month we see the party in power lose.
Reposted by Omar Wasow
Hello super friends.
There is a new @crosstabspodcast.com
It features a cool experiment in talking to non-political voters by @kabirkhanna.bsky.social at @cbsnews.com
He's super smart. You should listen to him.
Hey, did you know it's an election year?? Again??!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...
There is a new @crosstabspodcast.com
It features a cool experiment in talking to non-political voters by @kabirkhanna.bsky.social at @cbsnews.com
He's super smart. You should listen to him.
Hey, did you know it's an election year?? Again??!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...
Talking Politics With People Who Don't Want to, with Kabir Khanna of CBS News
Podcast Episode · Cross Tabs · 01/29/2026 · 53m
podcasts.apple.com
January 30, 2026 at 1:12 AM
Hello super friends.
There is a new @crosstabspodcast.com
It features a cool experiment in talking to non-political voters by @kabirkhanna.bsky.social at @cbsnews.com
He's super smart. You should listen to him.
Hey, did you know it's an election year?? Again??!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...
There is a new @crosstabspodcast.com
It features a cool experiment in talking to non-political voters by @kabirkhanna.bsky.social at @cbsnews.com
He's super smart. You should listen to him.
Hey, did you know it's an election year?? Again??!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...
Virginia Postrel in 1999 on GOP then:
“The party that thinks it is better than the American people, that makes large segments of the voting public believe they are its enemy, that convinces people it wants the government to boss them around and destroy the things they love, will lose.”
“The party that thinks it is better than the American people, that makes large segments of the voting public believe they are its enemy, that convinces people it wants the government to boss them around and destroy the things they love, will lose.”
Party Poopers
Why the Republicans deserved to lose
reason.com
January 31, 2026 at 7:25 PM
Virginia Postrel in 1999 on GOP then:
“The party that thinks it is better than the American people, that makes large segments of the voting public believe they are its enemy, that convinces people it wants the government to boss them around and destroy the things they love, will lose.”
“The party that thinks it is better than the American people, that makes large segments of the voting public believe they are its enemy, that convinces people it wants the government to boss them around and destroy the things they love, will lose.”
Reposted by Omar Wasow
“Melania the movie isn’t a documentary; it’s a protection racket. It’s a reminder that the richest people in the world are investing in entertainment brands… because all of these vanity projects and capitulations are a way to consolidate their own power and fortune.”
The Melania Trump Documentary Is a Disgrace
The exorbitant film captures the rotten state of the entertainment industry.
www.theatlantic.com
January 31, 2026 at 6:18 AM
“Melania the movie isn’t a documentary; it’s a protection racket. It’s a reminder that the richest people in the world are investing in entertainment brands… because all of these vanity projects and capitulations are a way to consolidate their own power and fortune.”
Reposted by Omar Wasow
"It may take time to prove you're right, but you have to stick to it."
- Fred Korematsu
Jailed for refusing to abide by FDR's Exec Order 9066, he took his case against internment all the way to the Supreme Court - and lost. Remember him on Korematsu Day, January 30th. 1/
- Fred Korematsu
Jailed for refusing to abide by FDR's Exec Order 9066, he took his case against internment all the way to the Supreme Court - and lost. Remember him on Korematsu Day, January 30th. 1/
January 30, 2026 at 10:32 PM
"It may take time to prove you're right, but you have to stick to it."
- Fred Korematsu
Jailed for refusing to abide by FDR's Exec Order 9066, he took his case against internment all the way to the Supreme Court - and lost. Remember him on Korematsu Day, January 30th. 1/
- Fred Korematsu
Jailed for refusing to abide by FDR's Exec Order 9066, he took his case against internment all the way to the Supreme Court - and lost. Remember him on Korematsu Day, January 30th. 1/
How is possible that a browser tab I opened three months ago is right there but the web form I was filling out for the last hour is nowhere to be found?
January 30, 2026 at 6:31 PM
How is possible that a browser tab I opened three months ago is right there but the web form I was filling out for the last hour is nowhere to be found?
Email is emotional labor
January 30, 2026 at 6:12 PM
Email is emotional labor
Right after George Floyd was murdered, many on the right—from elected officials to police chiefs—condemned the killing. That moment of narrative consensus, though, was fragile and soon new stories and interpretations gained traction to restore the old partisan divides. Expect similar pattern now.
January 30, 2026 at 4:52 PM
Right after George Floyd was murdered, many on the right—from elected officials to police chiefs—condemned the killing. That moment of narrative consensus, though, was fragile and soon new stories and interpretations gained traction to restore the old partisan divides. Expect similar pattern now.
Reposted by Omar Wasow
“In October…only 34% said ICE made them feel less safe. Since then, many of those in the middle have come off the sidelines. My most recent survey, which was initiated after the shooting of Renee Good, showed a jump to 45% of voters saying they now feel less safe as a result of ICE’s raids.” Gift 🔗
Opinion | The Polls Are Clear. Americans Don’t Want This.
www.nytimes.com
January 30, 2026 at 6:08 AM
“In October…only 34% said ICE made them feel less safe. Since then, many of those in the middle have come off the sidelines. My most recent survey, which was initiated after the shooting of Renee Good, showed a jump to 45% of voters saying they now feel less safe as a result of ICE’s raids.” Gift 🔗
Reposted by Omar Wasow
"The current protester tactics have been overwhelmingly nonviolent — nothing comparable to Minneapolis in 2020, when a police station burned, let alone the 1960s.
The political question is not whether there has been disorder, but rather whom the public holds responsible for the killings."
The political question is not whether there has been disorder, but rather whom the public holds responsible for the killings."
“Visible state violence against sympathetic civilians was the beginning of the end for Jim Crow. It may be a turning point now, too.” Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/o...
Opinion | We’re Seeing the Weakness of a Strong State
www.nytimes.com
January 30, 2026 at 4:31 AM
"The current protester tactics have been overwhelmingly nonviolent — nothing comparable to Minneapolis in 2020, when a police station burned, let alone the 1960s.
The political question is not whether there has been disorder, but rather whom the public holds responsible for the killings."
The political question is not whether there has been disorder, but rather whom the public holds responsible for the killings."
unpopulism
Pew has Trump's approval at 37%. And:
"Only about a quarter of Americans today (27%) say they support all or most of Trump’s policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to office last year. That change has come entirely among Republicans."
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
"Only about a quarter of Americans today (27%) say they support all or most of Trump’s policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to office last year. That change has come entirely among Republicans."
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
Confidence in Trump Dips, and Fewer Now Say They Support His Policies and Plans
Only 27% of Americans say they support all or most of Trump's policies – down since last year, with the change coming entirely among Republicans.
www.pewresearch.org
January 29, 2026 at 11:36 PM
unpopulism
“This has to be the most expensive documentary ever made that didn’t involve music licensing,” said Ted Hope, who worked at Amazon from 2015 to 2020 and was instrumental in starting the company’s film division. “How can it not be equated with currying favor or an outright bribe?”
Amazon’s Promotion of ‘Melania’ Has Critics Questioning Its Motives
www.nytimes.com
January 29, 2026 at 4:45 PM
“This has to be the most expensive documentary ever made that didn’t involve music licensing,” said Ted Hope, who worked at Amazon from 2015 to 2020 and was instrumental in starting the company’s film division. “How can it not be equated with currying favor or an outright bribe?”
“Visible state violence against sympathetic civilians was the beginning of the end for Jim Crow. It may be a turning point now, too.” Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/o...
Opinion | We’re Seeing the Weakness of a Strong State
www.nytimes.com
January 29, 2026 at 3:47 PM
“Visible state violence against sympathetic civilians was the beginning of the end for Jim Crow. It may be a turning point now, too.” Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/o...
Reposted by Omar Wasow
I’ll be doing a book talk with @jjgreenjr.bsky.social
for my new book:
*No Option But Sabotage*
at Politics and Prose (The Wharf) this Friday, 1/30.
We'll be discussing:
-the climate crisis
-social movement
-protest tactics
-and responses to repression
politics-prose.com/thomas-zeitz...
for my new book:
*No Option But Sabotage*
at Politics and Prose (The Wharf) this Friday, 1/30.
We'll be discussing:
-the climate crisis
-social movement
-protest tactics
-and responses to repression
politics-prose.com/thomas-zeitz...
January 28, 2026 at 3:55 PM
I’ll be doing a book talk with @jjgreenjr.bsky.social
for my new book:
*No Option But Sabotage*
at Politics and Prose (The Wharf) this Friday, 1/30.
We'll be discussing:
-the climate crisis
-social movement
-protest tactics
-and responses to repression
politics-prose.com/thomas-zeitz...
for my new book:
*No Option But Sabotage*
at Politics and Prose (The Wharf) this Friday, 1/30.
We'll be discussing:
-the climate crisis
-social movement
-protest tactics
-and responses to repression
politics-prose.com/thomas-zeitz...
“As an NPR report observed, in President Trump’s second term, “content is governing and governing is content.”
But spectacle cuts both ways. The same cameras that broadcast enforcement operations also capture repression. Winning a physical fight isn’t the same as winning an argument.” Gift link:
But spectacle cuts both ways. The same cameras that broadcast enforcement operations also capture repression. Winning a physical fight isn’t the same as winning an argument.” Gift link:
Opinion | We’re Seeing the Weakness of a Strong State
www.nytimes.com
January 29, 2026 at 1:14 AM
“As an NPR report observed, in President Trump’s second term, “content is governing and governing is content.”
But spectacle cuts both ways. The same cameras that broadcast enforcement operations also capture repression. Winning a physical fight isn’t the same as winning an argument.” Gift link:
But spectacle cuts both ways. The same cameras that broadcast enforcement operations also capture repression. Winning a physical fight isn’t the same as winning an argument.” Gift link:
Reposted by Omar Wasow
Someone share Neon Liberalism with @barackobama.bsky.social
We've got experts on social movement like @owasow.bsky.social www.liberalcurrents.com/neon-liberal...
We've got on the ground analysis from @whstancil.bsky.social www.liberalcurrents.com/neon-liberal...
We've got experts on social movement like @owasow.bsky.social www.liberalcurrents.com/neon-liberal...
We've got on the ground analysis from @whstancil.bsky.social www.liberalcurrents.com/neon-liberal...
January 28, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Someone share Neon Liberalism with @barackobama.bsky.social
We've got experts on social movement like @owasow.bsky.social www.liberalcurrents.com/neon-liberal...
We've got on the ground analysis from @whstancil.bsky.social www.liberalcurrents.com/neon-liberal...
We've got experts on social movement like @owasow.bsky.social www.liberalcurrents.com/neon-liberal...
We've got on the ground analysis from @whstancil.bsky.social www.liberalcurrents.com/neon-liberal...
Reposted by Omar Wasow
"Winning a physical fight isn’t the same as winning an argument.” @owasow.bsky.social
“What we are seeing is the weakness of strong states. Regimes that rely on repression face a challenge: The more force they deploy, the more they risk exposing their own brutality to politically persuadable observers. Overreach doesn’t just project strength; it also undermines legitimacy.” Gift link
Opinion | We’re Seeing the Weakness of a Strong State
www.nytimes.com
January 28, 2026 at 2:29 PM
"Winning a physical fight isn’t the same as winning an argument.” @owasow.bsky.social
Reposted by Omar Wasow
Interesting article by @owasow.bsky.social “The political question is not whether there has been disorder, but rather whom the public holds responsible for the killings in Minneapolis.”
I’m not as optimistic though that enough people have shifted to blaming ICE as much as is needed for policy change
I’m not as optimistic though that enough people have shifted to blaming ICE as much as is needed for policy change
“What we are seeing is the weakness of strong states. Regimes that rely on repression face a challenge: The more force they deploy, the more they risk exposing their own brutality to politically persuadable observers. Overreach doesn’t just project strength; it also undermines legitimacy.” Gift link
Opinion | We’re Seeing the Weakness of a Strong State
www.nytimes.com
January 28, 2026 at 2:28 PM
Interesting article by @owasow.bsky.social “The political question is not whether there has been disorder, but rather whom the public holds responsible for the killings in Minneapolis.”
I’m not as optimistic though that enough people have shifted to blaming ICE as much as is needed for policy change
I’m not as optimistic though that enough people have shifted to blaming ICE as much as is needed for policy change
Reposted by Omar Wasow
Reposted by Omar Wasow
I was just thinking yesterday about the direct line you can draw from Bull Connor to Greg Bovino, but this article by @owasow.bsky.social unpacks it perfectly.
“What we are seeing is the weakness of strong states. Regimes that rely on repression face a challenge: The more force they deploy, the more they risk exposing their own brutality to politically persuadable observers. Overreach doesn’t just project strength; it also undermines legitimacy.” Gift link
Opinion | We’re Seeing the Weakness of a Strong State
www.nytimes.com
January 28, 2026 at 2:45 PM
I was just thinking yesterday about the direct line you can draw from Bull Connor to Greg Bovino, but this article by @owasow.bsky.social unpacks it perfectly.
Reposted by Omar Wasow
Political scientists see non-violent resistance as much more effective--and it's not just from aggregate statistics. Rather, it's the way that peaceful resistance undermines the state's repressive capacities.
This op-ed by Berkeley prof @owasow.bsky.social explains this logic 🎯.
Give it a read!
This op-ed by Berkeley prof @owasow.bsky.social explains this logic 🎯.
Give it a read!
“What we are seeing is the weakness of strong states. Regimes that rely on repression face a challenge: The more force they deploy, the more they risk exposing their own brutality to politically persuadable observers. Overreach doesn’t just project strength; it also undermines legitimacy.” Gift link
Opinion | We’re Seeing the Weakness of a Strong State
www.nytimes.com
January 28, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Political scientists see non-violent resistance as much more effective--and it's not just from aggregate statistics. Rather, it's the way that peaceful resistance undermines the state's repressive capacities.
This op-ed by Berkeley prof @owasow.bsky.social explains this logic 🎯.
Give it a read!
This op-ed by Berkeley prof @owasow.bsky.social explains this logic 🎯.
Give it a read!
“What we are seeing is the weakness of strong states. Regimes that rely on repression face a challenge: The more force they deploy, the more they risk exposing their own brutality to politically persuadable observers. Overreach doesn’t just project strength; it also undermines legitimacy.” Gift link
Opinion | We’re Seeing the Weakness of a Strong State
www.nytimes.com
January 28, 2026 at 1:55 PM
“What we are seeing is the weakness of strong states. Regimes that rely on repression face a challenge: The more force they deploy, the more they risk exposing their own brutality to politically persuadable observers. Overreach doesn’t just project strength; it also undermines legitimacy.” Gift link