Brad LeVeck
@bradleveck.bsky.social
political scientist at UC Merced
Likes: 🌄📸, 🧠🔄🧠, 📊🧪
faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck
Likes: 🌄📸, 🧠🔄🧠, 📊🧪
faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
2. This combination of unpopularity + economic trouble creates incentives for escalation: adventurism abroad (Venezuela) and repression at home (prosecuting political opponents).
AKA "gambling for resurrection."
AKA "gambling for resurrection."
November 14, 2025 at 8:40 PM
2. This combination of unpopularity + economic trouble creates incentives for escalation: adventurism abroad (Venezuela) and repression at home (prosecuting political opponents).
AKA "gambling for resurrection."
AKA "gambling for resurrection."
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
New homes per capita over time
November 14, 2025 at 7:18 PM
New homes per capita over time
It seems like every time I’m about to teach unraveling in information revelation games… the universe provides timely new examples.
November 13, 2025 at 2:26 AM
It seems like every time I’m about to teach unraveling in information revelation games… the universe provides timely new examples.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
blog post: weights and MRP for voters
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
November 12, 2025 at 10:13 PM
blog post: weights and MRP for voters
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
What intro stats textbook to use?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
What intro stats textbook to use? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 9, 2025 at 4:20 PM
What intro stats textbook to use?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
This. I think this capitulation is best explained as a handful of senators trading away 1 in order to stop 2.
November 10, 2025 at 10:30 PM
This. I think this capitulation is best explained as a handful of senators trading away 1 in order to stop 2.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
This is what's so aggravating — yes, it was not working in extracting a policy concession but it was working in *driving down trump's numbers and provoking GOP infighting* which is what's important if you take Dem rhetoric about the perils of MAGA remotely seriously.
weirdly honest messaging from the breakaway mod/institutionalist leaders who blew up the party strategy
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
November 10, 2025 at 2:06 PM
This is what's so aggravating — yes, it was not working in extracting a policy concession but it was working in *driving down trump's numbers and provoking GOP infighting* which is what's important if you take Dem rhetoric about the perils of MAGA remotely seriously.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
It’ll be interesting to see how this changes Republican behavior around the shutdown.
November 5, 2025 at 2:39 AM
It’ll be interesting to see how this changes Republican behavior around the shutdown.
It’ll be interesting to see how this changes Republican behavior around the shutdown.
November 5, 2025 at 2:39 AM
It’ll be interesting to see how this changes Republican behavior around the shutdown.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
“Alex, I’ll take ‘Supreme Court claims that have aged poorly’ for $200”
November 4, 2025 at 2:16 PM
“Alex, I’ll take ‘Supreme Court claims that have aged poorly’ for $200”
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Maybe your texts tell you to "BE A VOTER" like mine.
It all started because of a PNAS paper that claimed that the noun form it increased voter turnout (relative to the verb form ) by 11 to 14 percentage points.
It keeps not replicating, obviously.
Most recently doi.org/10.1017/bpp....
It all started because of a PNAS paper that claimed that the noun form it increased voter turnout (relative to the verb form ) by 11 to 14 percentage points.
It keeps not replicating, obviously.
Most recently doi.org/10.1017/bpp....
November 4, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Maybe your texts tell you to "BE A VOTER" like mine.
It all started because of a PNAS paper that claimed that the noun form it increased voter turnout (relative to the verb form ) by 11 to 14 percentage points.
It keeps not replicating, obviously.
Most recently doi.org/10.1017/bpp....
It all started because of a PNAS paper that claimed that the noun form it increased voter turnout (relative to the verb form ) by 11 to 14 percentage points.
It keeps not replicating, obviously.
Most recently doi.org/10.1017/bpp....
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Delighted to announce we are advertising our first academic post in the Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods (CASSM). The position is Associate Professor in Politics, Technology and Computational Social Science and is joint with Politics, the Oxford Internet Institute, and Reuben College 1/n
Job Details
my.corehr.com
November 3, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Delighted to announce we are advertising our first academic post in the Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods (CASSM). The position is Associate Professor in Politics, Technology and Computational Social Science and is joint with Politics, the Oxford Internet Institute, and Reuben College 1/n
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Clever idea in new econ job market candidate JMP
Equilibrium Neglect and Political Feasibility - convince people to support congestion pricing when they are too pessimistic about its effects by offering compensation if traffic fails to improve
drive.google.com/file/d/1u24n...
Equilibrium Neglect and Political Feasibility - convince people to support congestion pricing when they are too pessimistic about its effects by offering compensation if traffic fails to improve
drive.google.com/file/d/1u24n...
November 3, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Clever idea in new econ job market candidate JMP
Equilibrium Neglect and Political Feasibility - convince people to support congestion pricing when they are too pessimistic about its effects by offering compensation if traffic fails to improve
drive.google.com/file/d/1u24n...
Equilibrium Neglect and Political Feasibility - convince people to support congestion pricing when they are too pessimistic about its effects by offering compensation if traffic fails to improve
drive.google.com/file/d/1u24n...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
November 1, 2025 at 1:54 AM
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Henry Kim and I wrote about this phenomena all the way back in 2013 for House races. faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck/asse...
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 30, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Henry Kim and I wrote about this phenomena all the way back in 2013 for House races. faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck/asse...
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
Henry Kim and I wrote about this phenomena all the way back in 2013 for House races. faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck/asse...
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 30, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Henry Kim and I wrote about this phenomena all the way back in 2013 for House races. faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck/asse...
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Review of applications begins November 10 - please apply! apply.interfolio.com/172357
New job ad: Assistant Professor of Quantitative Social Science, Dartmouth College apply.interfolio.com/172357
Please share with your networks. I am the search chair and happy to answer questions!
Please share with your networks. I am the search chair and happy to answer questions!
October 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Review of applications begins November 10 - please apply! apply.interfolio.com/172357
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
In 2025, polarization on schools & the Supreme Court leaves only Banks + Big Business with moderate/high confidence across parties.
Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @gallup.com Social Series.
Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @gallup.com Social Series.
October 29, 2025 at 2:22 PM
In 2025, polarization on schools & the Supreme Court leaves only Banks + Big Business with moderate/high confidence across parties.
Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @gallup.com Social Series.
Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @gallup.com Social Series.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Highly-educated Democrats have very different priorities and policy preferences than Americans writ large. This is likely even more true of politically-engaged college grads.
The mood in our circles/social media feeds is not a reliable guide to public opinion
www.vox.com/politics/466...
The mood in our circles/social media feeds is not a reliable guide to public opinion
www.vox.com/politics/466...
October 29, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Highly-educated Democrats have very different priorities and policy preferences than Americans writ large. This is likely even more true of politically-engaged college grads.
The mood in our circles/social media feeds is not a reliable guide to public opinion
www.vox.com/politics/466...
The mood in our circles/social media feeds is not a reliable guide to public opinion
www.vox.com/politics/466...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
blog post: Blue Rose Research is hiring !
We are looking for a teammate with expertise in both LLM tools and statistical modeling.
Someone who clearly communicates assumptions, results, and uncertainty. With care and kindness.
We are looking for a teammate with expertise in both LLM tools and statistical modeling.
Someone who clearly communicates assumptions, results, and uncertainty. With care and kindness.
October 28, 2025 at 8:32 PM
blog post: Blue Rose Research is hiring !
We are looking for a teammate with expertise in both LLM tools and statistical modeling.
Someone who clearly communicates assumptions, results, and uncertainty. With care and kindness.
We are looking for a teammate with expertise in both LLM tools and statistical modeling.
Someone who clearly communicates assumptions, results, and uncertainty. With care and kindness.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
In the absence of cryptographic trust, we have social norms and faux pas. Sharing realistic-looking AI video without a visible watermark or disclaimer should be a faux pas imo
I like the idea but I don’t think it’s practical (or it won’t be for a long time). In the medium-term, I think we will need to rely on more social forms of trust, in individuals and institutions
The more I work with content credentials, the less optimistic I get about them. They really need integration at every single step- if a single transform happens without them the whole thing falls apart.
October 27, 2025 at 7:27 PM
In the absence of cryptographic trust, we have social norms and faux pas. Sharing realistic-looking AI video without a visible watermark or disclaimer should be a faux pas imo
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
I understood it intellectually, but it was jarring for me to live in New Orleans after so many years in Los Angeles. NOLA is far poorer and yet has a tiny fraction of the unsheltered homelessness LA has. As a result, the former is full of public spaces while the latter has virtually none.
This is why ending homelessness is upstream from all kinds of quality of life improvements in American cities. Homelessness engenders all kinds of negative anti-social responses from policymakers, merchants and civil society it’s a viscous cycle.
I feel like hostile architecture is a good example of what's wrong with society nowadays, inconveniencing everyone and turning public spaces into voids completely unavailable for public life just to exclude a handful of social undesirables without solving their issues
October 25, 2025 at 2:38 AM
I understood it intellectually, but it was jarring for me to live in New Orleans after so many years in Los Angeles. NOLA is far poorer and yet has a tiny fraction of the unsheltered homelessness LA has. As a result, the former is full of public spaces while the latter has virtually none.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
I think it's a very bad thing for democracy when the military moves onto a private payroll.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
Trump to Use $130 Million Donation to Help Pay Troops
www.nytimes.com
October 24, 2025 at 8:12 PM
I think it's a very bad thing for democracy when the military moves onto a private payroll.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
The School of Public Policy at the LSE is hiring in political science! Associate or Full.
I was the first political scientist hired by the SPP, come be the second!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
I was the first political scientist hired by the SPP, come be the second!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy
Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy,
,
<p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</span></...
jobs.lse.ac.uk
October 23, 2025 at 1:21 PM
The School of Public Policy at the LSE is hiring in political science! Associate or Full.
I was the first political scientist hired by the SPP, come be the second!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
I was the first political scientist hired by the SPP, come be the second!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Pleased to share that the Kennedy School has been authorized to conduct a faculty search in American politics
This is as an extraordinary opportunity for us - please share widely with your networks and consider applying
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15418
This is as an extraordinary opportunity for us - please share widely with your networks and consider applying
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15418
Professor of Public Policy (American Politics)
Harvard Kennedy School seeks a scholar of the highest distinction to appoint as a professor of public policy, focusing on American politics, elections, and policy. We particularly welcome applications...
academicpositions.harvard.edu
October 23, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Pleased to share that the Kennedy School has been authorized to conduct a faculty search in American politics
This is as an extraordinary opportunity for us - please share widely with your networks and consider applying
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15418
This is as an extraordinary opportunity for us - please share widely with your networks and consider applying
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15418