Brad LeVeck
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bradleveck.bsky.social
Brad LeVeck
@bradleveck.bsky.social
520 followers 700 following 960 posts
political scientist at UC Merced
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faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck
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bradleveck.bsky.social
I think it’s politically meaningful to know what people believe and how those beliefs change in response to events. E.g. this is from election night, and suggests 1) the results were not already “priced in” by attentive people 2) it probably changed how endangered Republican politicians feel.
November 7, 2025 at 9:08 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
It’ll be interesting to see how this changes Republican behavior around the shutdown.
The betting market odds on Kalshi for Dems gaining control of the US House jumped from a 58% to 74%
November 5, 2025 at 2:39 AM
bradleveck.bsky.social
It takes a bit of hunting, but they define it in the contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between August 21, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela's Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a "special component" of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela's Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
October 31, 2025 at 6:13 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
If this feels unfair to progressive Democrats, that's because it is. As Gary Jacobson notes, when elections are nationalized around how voters feel about two parties, it benefits Republicans. Dems would likely benefit more from heterodoxy and moderation.
From Jacobson 2015 "It's nothing Personal" Journal of Politics At the House level, however, party-line voting, electoral coherence, and the shrinking personal vote clearly favor the Republicans, because they enjoy a large structural advantage in the distribution of partisans across districts. Although Republican gerrymanders reinforced this advantage after the 2000 and 2010 censuses, they have existed for decades as a product of coalition demographics. Demo- crats win the lion's share of minority, single, young, secu- lar, gay, and highly educated voters who are concentrated in urban districts that deliver lopsided Democratic major- ities. Regular Republican voters are spread more evenly across suburbs, smaller cities, and rural areas, so fewer Re- publican votes are "wasted" in highly skewed districts. Thus although Obama won by nearly 5 million votes in 2012, Romney outpolled Obama in 226 congressional districts, while Obama ran ahead in only 209. This imbalance was as great in the 1970s as it is today (Jacobson 2013b), but with the rise of party-line voting and decline in ticket splitting, it has become much more consequential. Democrats actually won a majority of the major party vote cast nationally for House candidates in 2012, 50.7%; but with party loyalty so high, split outcomes so rare, and the Republican structural advantage so pronounced, they won only 46.2% of House seats. At present, Republicans can win a 226-209 House majority by taking only those districts where Rom- ney ran at least 2 points ahead of his national vote (and hence won the district). Democrats would have to win all of the Democratic-leaning and balanced districts plus eight Republican-leaning districts to reach a majority (218 seats). Under this configuration, Republicans seem virtually cer- tain to retain control of the House for the remainder of the decade.
October 30, 2025 at 8:15 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Some companies already do this (below is from Nikon), but you'd need a way for people to post the edit tracking to social media sites and have them verify it. The current stuff seems more aimed at newsrooms who want to verify integrity.
www.nikonusa.com/content/niko...
October 24, 2025 at 1:35 AM
bradleveck.bsky.social
No Kings in Mountain View, CA
October 18, 2025 at 9:02 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Totally agree, but I went over to Reddit was surprised to find many are making the connection.

In general though, Dem politicians probably need to highlight it if they want people to connect the dots.
September 20, 2025 at 1:55 AM
bradleveck.bsky.social
So many good points in this piece that it’s basically impossible to repost them without copying the whole article, but here’s one that struck a chord with me.
Cutting more than a billion dollars in research funding is a threat so large and so devastating to the fundamental work of a research university like Columbia that it makes resistance virtually impossible. This looks less like a civil rights enforcement action and more like a shakedown, and it signals to future administrations that they, too, can sidestep legal procedures and extract concessions by holding financial resources hostage. This is not how civil rights law is supposed to work.
July 24, 2025 at 11:46 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
I don’t get how this is supposed to work. Everyone already knows he is going to try to appoint someone next May who will lower rates more aggressively.

🎁🔗 www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
WSJ EXCLUSIVE CENTRAL BANKING Trump Considers Naming Next Fed Chair Early in Bid to Undermine Powell Warsh, Hassett and Bessent are among those under consideration as Trump evaluates their commitment to cutting rates
June 26, 2025 at 12:39 AM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Yeah. Not that markets are oracles, but I think it's instructive that people with money on the line think the odds of an Iranian bomb have gone up, not down in the last week (though I wish there was a 2026 or 27 market).
June 24, 2025 at 12:38 AM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Also, we now live in a world where you can ask an AI agent to do the tedious work of tracking down when news events were posted to newswires and correlate them with market movements.

Seems pretty good. I checked the linked sources to make sure o3 wasn't making stuff up.
09:26 AM PT - First solid mainstream wire (Qatar closes its airspace) kicks the contract over 50 %. reuters.com • 09:37-09:41 AM - Two back-to-back flashes ("missile launchers in place", then Axios/Reuters saying missiles launched) send the price to ~70%. reuters.com reuters.com • 11:09-11:26 AM - U.S. officials on the record: nothing else under fire, nothing actually hit. Odds collapse into the 20-30 % range. reuters.com reuters.com • 12:18 PM - Big Reuters wrap confirms prior warning + zero damage; price finds a floor around 23 %. Oil futures, likewise, give up their early spike. reuters.com reuters.com
June 23, 2025 at 9:13 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
I think this is one of the first international crises where we've had real-money prediction markets, and they provide an interesting realtime glimpse into people processing news.

E.g. below, where traders react to news of Iran's strike this morning before realizing it's actually de-escalatory.
Graph of Polymarket contract on whether there will be "Another US military action against Iran by June 30?". Prices rise around 8:34 west coast time on news of Iranian strikes before dropping rapidly around 10:09 on news that there are no other strikes, suggesting it's limited, and plunging further around 10:26 on news that none of the missiles hit and there's zero damage.
June 23, 2025 at 8:58 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Sometimes life comes at you fast.

1 hr ago: Rubio Tells Allies Deal With Iran 'Preferred' Option

6 minutes ago: Trump: U.S. Completed Strikes on Iran
June 22, 2025 at 12:37 AM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Yeah yeah, markets aren’t oracles. I’m still really worried that this line keeps creeping upwards.
US military action against Iran before July? 61% chance Polymarket
June 17, 2025 at 4:25 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Just miles and miles of normies patriotically protesting Trump. Beautiful.
Group of protesters with American flags.
June 14, 2025 at 9:43 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
The No Kings protest in Mountain View was pretty laid back. Half of us lined up along a 7 mile stretch of El Camino and the other half strapped American flags to their cars and honked non-stop. 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸
Protestors lined up along El Camino Boulevard in Mountain View
June 14, 2025 at 9:34 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
It shows 59 vs 31 percent approve/disapprove. That's very high support by any standard, but it's certainly hard to see how that would "hurt the Dems popularity".
May 25, 2025 at 11:39 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
I read the thread. Besides the very good point that Republicans do sometimes moderate in ways that help them win, people also ignore the fact that Republicans have an advantage when it comes to acting in a more partisan/ideological fashion. Certainly in the Senate, but also somewhat in the House.
From Jacobson 2015 "It's Nothing Personal" Journal of Politics "At the House level, however, party-line voting, electoral coherence, and the shrinking personal vote clearly favor the Republicans, because they enjoy a large structural advan-tage in the distribution of partisans across districts. Al-though Republican gerrymanders reinforced this advantageafter the 2000 and 2010 censuses, they have existed fordecades as a product of coalition demographics. Demo-crats win the lion’s share of minority, single, young, secu-lar, gay, and highly educated voters who are concentratedin urban districts that deliver lopsided Democratic major-ities. Regular Republican voters are spread more evenlyacross suburbs, smaller cities, and rural areas, so fewer Re-publican votes are “wasted” in highly skewed districts. Thusalthough Obama won by nearly 5 million votes in 2012,Romney outpolled Obama in 226 congressional districts,while Obama ran ahead in only 209. This imbalance was asgreat in the 1970s as it is today (Jacobson 2013b), but withthe rise of party-line voting and decline in ticket splitting,it has become much more consequential. Democrats actu-ally won a majority of the major party vote cast nationallyfor House candidates in 2012, 50.7%; but with party loy-alty so high, split outcomes so rare, and the Republicanstructural advantage so pronounced, they won only 46.2%of House seats. At present, Republicans can win a 226–209House majority by taking only those districts where Rom-ney ran at least 2 points ahead of his national vote (andhence won the district). Democrats would have to win allof the Democratic-leaning and balanced districts plus eightRepublican-leaning districts to reach a majority (218 seats).Under this configuration, Republicans seem virtually cer-tain to retain control of the House for the remainder of the decade."
May 25, 2025 at 11:35 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Wait. They’ve just stumbled onto a way to say reasonable stuff that makes unreasonable people leave. Let them cook.
From bio of person complaining about Bluesky trying to make money: “No longer here. Find me on Mastodon instead”
May 20, 2025 at 7:40 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Well, at least Moodys can
From WSJ "Successive U.S. administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs," Moody's wrote in a statement. "We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration."
May 16, 2025 at 9:42 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Oh no. Whatever will I do?
Blue book exam booklet.
May 7, 2025 at 6:25 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Maybe it shouldn’t be too surprising that Trump is a Dictator Game enjoyer
Megan Cass... @mmcass... • 2h ... Quoting Trump "So we can just sit down and I'll do this at some point over the next two weeks.. We're going to sit down, and we're going to put very fair numbers down, and we're going to say, here's what this country, what we want. And congratulations, we have a deal.”
May 6, 2025 at 7:13 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
This entire thread is gold
Bodes_Magodes • 7h ago Glad I ordered my shit the week before e & Award @ Share. Motya1978 • 7h ago But do you have your shit? Order date doesn't count. • 358 2 Award @ Share •00 mmm_beer • 7h ago Damn, he's about to FAFO too € 个231少及Award @ Share •.. Circus_Maximus • 7h ago This is correct.
May 2, 2025 at 8:22 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Turns out you're supposed to wait until after you're confirmed to start acting like a cartoon villain.
Polymarket contract on "Will the Senate confirm Ed Martin before July?" drops from a 67% to 14% chance, after Martin's confirmation hearing goes very badly.
May 1, 2025 at 11:45 PM
bradleveck.bsky.social
Good article. Really nice explanation of how imports can affect GDP growth, even though they don’t impact it directly.
Yet it's also important to say that the costs and uncertainty of trade policy chaos can have real negative growth effects. If a construction company rushed to buy a bunch of wood from Canada ahead of tariffs, that would show up as an increase in imports and an increase in inventories which cancel each other out. But if that company slowed down construction so it could afford to stockpile inputs, that would show up as a hidden drag on GDP in the form of lower investment. In other words, tariff front-running can indirectly slow the economy, and that's exactly what we saw at the start of this year.
May 1, 2025 at 10:00 PM