Just to be clear, I personally think this was a bad trade.

There are a few instances of this, like the “Romney Whale,” who @rajivsethi.bsky.social has written on.
rajivsethi.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-...

The obvious problem with that strat though is that the “ad” is usually short lived, as it’s hard to prevent arbitrage.

Though, if you have a good example where there’s a large, measured difference between the consensus of attentive individuals and a betting markets, I’d be interested.

I think the marginal bettor is pretty attentive, and there’s a good reason for this. If you’re an attentive person who disagrees with the market, you have an incentive to change the price.

Saying there’s distortions to all methods also doesn’t change the fact that some methods address very important distortions better than others. At most, it’s an argument for using them as complements rather than substitutes.

I’m not sure what other way you would “know” this, at least not in a way that’s a very good substitute. The quantification is important here because we care how much people’s beliefs changed.

I think this undervalues knowing what the consensus is among attentive individuals. bsky.app/profile/brad...

I think it’s politically meaningful to know what people believe and how those beliefs change in response to events. E.g. this is from election night, and suggests 1) the results were not already “priced in” by attentive people 2) it probably changed how endangered Republican politicians feel.

Make sure to stop and say hi as you walk through NorCal.

How am I supposed to paper over the fact that my sentences run on for 3 lines?

What planet does his quest line occur on? I did the mission on Golden Ridge, but nothing after the Tranquility Station mission.

It was a good video essay. If the Biden admin had done something similar, MSFT lawyers would have sent a cease and desist letter immediately. Not doing the same thing here is cowardice.

Np. They definitely don’t make it easy to find or link to, hence the screenshot.