Andrew R. Morral | Lightnews

Andrew Morral

@andrewmorral.bsky.social

890 followers 390 following 85 posts

Greenwald Chair in Gun Policy at RAND.

Director of the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research: https://www.ncgvr.org

Co-Director of RAND’s Gun Policy In America initiative: https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy.html. .. more

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Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Apr 17

I am happy to announce some improvements to our state firearm law database and tools. The database is now updated to cover dozens of laws from 1979 to Jan 1, 2024. In addition … 🧵

www.rand.org/research/gun...

State Firearm Law Navigator

Research on the effects of gun laws requires good data on when and where different types of laws have been implemented. The State Firearm Law Navigator shows which states since 1979 have enacted 20 cl...

www.rand.org

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 10d

No. This cannot be right. 56 additional injuries per 100k is not plausible for a 1% increase in food insecurity. Please double check this claim. Or provide the citation, and I will.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 13d

www.wsj.com/us-news/homi...

Six Words Every Killer Should Know: ‘I Feared for My Life, Officer’

The number of legally sanctioned homicides has grown substantially in states with expanded self-defense rights under stand-your-ground laws.

www.wsj.com

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 13d

Interesting WSJ analysis of NIBRS data finds justifiable homicides rising more rapidly than total homicides in Stand-Your-Ground states, and faster than it is rising in non-SYG states. The intended effect of SYG!, but they note some real problems with application of these laws.

Six Words Every Killer Should Know: ‘I Feared for My Life, Officer’

The number of legally sanctioned homicides has grown substantially in states with expanded self-defense rights under stand-your-ground laws.

www.wsj.com

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 26d

A joke, I know, but I enjoyed and completely agree with; statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/11/7...

7 reasons to use Bayesian inference! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral, Sanford F. Schram, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 26d

We constantly talk about Dems' struggles to reach deeper into the culture and access people who ignore politics.

You know what issue is penetrating deep into the culture? ICE's masked raids and kidnappings! It's on Rogan and in country music. In the Manosphere!

newrepublic.com/article/2018...

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Sep 20

Specifically, homicides and car crash fatalities were trending down, but then reversed in 2015 and started rising. Between 2010 and 2014 opioid deaths increased by 0.6 (per 100k) per year, but jumped by 1.6 in 2015, and 3.5 in 2016. Depression has an earlier inflection by 2 years

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Sep 20

Am I squinting too hard, or is there more structure to these trends than explained by COVID? In three of these series something happens around 2015, as well as peaking in 2021. Do you work with other series that look like this? Any grand theories?

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Sep 14

CDC Wonder is down?

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · Sep 4

New Mexico AG Torrez: One of the biggest issues we face is gun violence. We haven’t seen any surge of federal law enforcement agencies dedicated to helping us reduce gun violence. What we’ve seen instead is a lot of the performative stuff — DHS going down to paint the wall to make it hotter.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Aug 29

These are undoubtedly underestimates. Without mandatory reporting of lost/stolen guns (in most states) how many private citizens never report a loss, or even a theft?

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Aug 29

Per a recent ATF report, in 2023 there were 208,184 firearms lost/stolen:
- 188,560 from private citizens
- 9,479 lost by gun dealers
- 5,755 stolen from gun dealers
- 4,390 lost/stolen in shipping

More than 1M between 2019-2023

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

Daniel Webster @daniel-webster.bsky.social · Aug 29

Gun owners, lock up your guns.
I can’t help but wonder about the thousands of guns lost and stolen from licensed gun dealers. How many were sold off the books? How many were stolen by employees who aren’t required to be vetted? It’s signals poor regulation and oversight.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Aug 29

Reposted by Daniel Webster

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Aug 29

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

Governor Tim Walz @governorwalz.mn.gov · Aug 29

It’s time to take serious action at the State Capitol to address gun violence.

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

The Trace @thetrace.org · Aug 17

The Trump administration is moving to slash the Centers for Disease and Control Prevention. Here’s what’s at stake. thetr.ac/MGM94

Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · Aug 1

Firing the BLS Commissioner — the wonk in charge of the statisticians who track economic reality — is an authoritarian four alarm fire.

It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

The Joyce Foundation @joycefdn.bsky.social · Jul 25

We’re #hiring for the role of Gun Violence Prevention and Justice Reform Program Director. Learn more at the link below and please share with your networks.
joycefoundation.bamboohr.com/careers/30

Program Director, GVPJR

FOUNDATION OVERVIEW The Joyce Foundation is a private, nonpartisan philanthropy that invests in public policies and strategies to advance racial equity and economic mobility for the next generation in...

joycefoundation.bamboohr.com

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Jul 11

LAST CALL: Nominations for the $5,000 Greenwald Award for Excellence in Firearm Violence Prevention Research close in less than two weeks.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Jun 3

Reminder: The 2025 Greenwald Family $5000 Award for the best research paper on gun violence/injury prevention/gun policy is accepting nominations now through July 24, 2025. Qualitative and quantitative studies from all academic disciplines are eligible.
www.firearmresearchsociety.org/2025-greenwa...

www.firearmresearchsociety.org

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

Will Saletan @saletan.bsky.social · Jul 10

Trump's move to investigate and prosecute James Comey, the former director who documented Trump's attempt to corrupt the FBI, is a grave step toward American authoritarianism.

This article, which I wrote in 2019, lays out the evidence. The president is trying to silence those who expose his crimes.

Mueller Proved Comey Told the Truth

And the president lied.

slate.com

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · Jul 2

San Francisco has reported 11 murders through June 2025 and 31 over the last 12 months. That's the fewest murders through June and fewest rolling over 12 months ever recorded (monthly reporting from the FBI starts in 1960).

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · Jun 23

It's not just the US murder rate that is likely at or near the lowest level ever recorded. The data from the first 4 months of 2025 points to the possibility of the lowest reported property crime rate ever & lowest violent crime rate in decades. This week's piece:
jasher.substack.com/p/its-not-ju...

It's Not Just Murder That's Likely At Historic Lows

The US is on track to record the lowest violent crime rate since 1968 and lowest property crime rate ever.

jasher.substack.com

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral, Dominic Sisti

Christopher Webb @cwebbonline.com · Jun 18

This is beyond cruel, especially for young folks who are going through it. Cutting off LGBTQ+ youth from specialized suicide prevention help is a death sentence disguised as bureaucracy.

Shame on every official who signed off on this. You’re not protecting children, you’re abandoning them.

Reposted by Suzana J. Camargo, Kelly R. Zamudio, Simon J. Greenhill , and 3 more Suzana J. Camargo, Kelly R. Zamudio, Simon J. Greenhill, Andrew R. Morral, Laura Huenneke, Michelle L. Mazurek

Jacquelyn Gill @jacquelyngill.bsky.social · Jun 16

Last February, I led a proposal submission that encompassed six months, hundreds of hours, four institutions, a massive team, and and 256 pages. NSF just informed us that the entire Biology Integration Institute program was archived and our proposal would not even be reviewed.

With a form email.

A screen shot of an email reading:

Dear Dr. Gill, Jacquelyn,

I am writing to let you know that given the current budgetary projections and recent adjustment of NSF’s over-arching priorities, NSF/BIO will not be making any new awards through the Biology Integration Institutes Program. Therefore, the solicitation has been archived, and NSF has returned your proposal without review so you can re-submit it, or portions of it, to appropriate BIO programs that currently are receiving new proposals, if you wish.

Sincerely,

Jim Deshler
Division Director (Acting)
Division of Biological Infrastructure

Reposted by Michael Barnett, Andrew R. Morral, Naomi Priest , and 2 more Michael Barnett, Andrew R. Morral, Naomi Priest, Emily Mendenhall, Anand Iyer

Brittany Charlton @britshmit.bsky.social · Jun 16

📢BREAKING: Just left the courthouse for our NIH grant termination case

Judge ruled terminations are “VOID & ILLEGAL”

As a plaintiff, I felt a wave of relief & hope; he acknowledged the discrimination & harm

Closed by asking, ‘Have we fallen so low? Have we no shame?’

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Jun 12

Fact check: it is correct that in the most recent year of vital statistics data AR has a homicide rate twice that of CA. It’s basically true looking back over the last three or five years as well. AR has a big homicide problem, almost all of which concerns firearms homicides.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Jun 11

Many thanks to our sponsor, @arnoldventures.bsky.social , and to my colleagues @rosannasmart.bsky.social , Terry Schell, James Murphy and Nancy Nicosia.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Jun 11

We are releasing these data simultaneously with the publication describing their development in the American Journal of Public Health: ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10....

State-Level Estimates of Nonfatal Firearm Injury Hospitalizations, 2000–2021 | AJPH | Vol. 115 Issue 7

Objectives. To create a comprehensive, publicly available data set of state-level nonfatal firearm injury inpatient hospitalizations (NFIIHs) in the United States from 2000 to 2021. Methods. We used B...

ajph.aphapublications.org

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Jun 11

JUST RELEASED: Accurate data on firearm injuries in the United States are critical to understand the costs and prevention of gun violence. But comprehensive data on injuries isn't available. We have instead developed estimates covering 2000-2022 that can be downloaded:

www.rand.org/research/gun...

Firearm Injury Hospitalizations in America

To address a gap in the available data on firearm injuries, RAND researchers have developed a longitudinal database of state-level estimates of hospitalizations due to firearm injury. Use this visuali...

www.rand.org

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Jun 10

Much of the spending on murder investigation is local, so not counted in these figures. Nevertheless the law enforcement expenditure differences across these federal agencies does highlight a strange prioritization.
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...

Deport Dishwashers or Solve All Murders? - Marginal REVOLUTION

I understand being concerned about illegal immigration. I definitely understand being concerned about murder, rape, and robbery. What I don’t understand is being more concerned about the former than t...

marginalrevolution.com

Reposted by Joseph Schafer, Andrew R. Morral, Lee Jones

Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · Jun 8

Hello. I live in Los Angeles. The president is lying.

Reposted by Erin Baker, Andrew R. Morral, Enzo Rossi , and 4 more Erin Baker, Andrew R. Morral, Enzo Rossi, Nancy T. Ammerman, Michelle Dion, Mikala Egeblad, Dominique C. Bergmann

Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · Jun 6

Very smart, high ROI initiative from the Spencer Foundation.

Providing bridge funding for canceled NSF grants:

1) directs funds to projects already screened by a top-noch review process.
2) avoids imposing proposal prep costs on researchers.
3) ameliorates the disruption from GOP sabotage.

Rapid Response Bridge Funding Program

In the face of recent abrupt shifts in federal funding for education research, including large-scale terminations of National Science Foundation (NSF) research grant awards, we have developed a rap...

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