Andrew R. Morral | Lightnews

Andrew Morral

@andrewmorral.bsky.social

900 followers 390 following 110 posts

Greenwald Chair in Gun Policy at RAND.

Director of the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research: https://www.ncgvr.org

Co-Director of RAND’s Gun Policy In America initiative: https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy.html. .. more

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Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Apr 17

I am happy to announce some improvements to our state firearm law database and tools. The database is now updated to cover dozens of laws from 1979 to Jan 1, 2024. In addition … 🧵

www.rand.org/research/gun...

State Firearm Law Navigator

Research on the effects of gun laws requires good data on when and where different types of laws have been implemented. The State Firearm Law Navigator shows which states since 1979 have enacted 20 cl...

www.rand.org

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

jenna newman phd @jennanewman.bsky.social · 2d

New ML-based interactive tool on how rates of homicide, death by suicide, and firearm violence vary (dramatically) among states + how those differences correspond with state characteristics.

Enables more data-informed conversations on root causes of gun violence🧪🛟

www.rand.org/research/gun...

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 4d

The methods are pretty interesting, and I think useful for thinking through what covariates may be important to control for in gun policy analysis. We wrote them up here (and thanks to my coauthors, Greg Midgette and Terry Schell!). www.rand.org/pubs/tools/T...

Firearm Mortality and State Characteristics

Rates of homicide, death by suicide, and firearm violence vary dramatically among U.S. states. This tool allows users to investigate how these differences correspond with state characteristics.

www.rand.org

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 4d

Example: How much do demographics correlate with state firearm suicide rates? FL, MT, AK, WY and other states have MUCH higher firearm suicide rates than other states with similar demographics. Whereas SD, CA, NC and others have much lower rates than states with similar demographics.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 4d

My plumber is using a chatBot for problem characterization, scheduling and account management and it works great. I can call any time, day or night. It has handled complex requests well. very impressed.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 4d

A state legislator once told me the ’”only reason” his state had such a high suicide rate was because of its large Native American population. This tool suggests that’s not correct.

Similarly it raises questions about many arguments you might hear about root causes of violence.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 4d

We just launched a new interactive tool that allows you to explore these questions state-by-state:

www.rand.org/research/gun...

many thanks to @arnoldventures.bsky.social for supporting this work!

Firearm Mortality and State Characteristics

Rates of firearm mortality vary dramatically among U.S. states. This tool demonstrates how these differences correspond with state characteristics, such as demographics and political climate.

www.rand.org

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 4d

Huge state differences in suicide/homicide rates are often explained away by, for instance, economic conditions, demographics, firearm ownership rates, political lean, etc. How plausible are those claims, and what portion of state mortality rates cannot be so explained? ‎‎‎[1/2]

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 4d

An excellent review of our Science of Gun Policy report released last week by Gina Napoletano.

www.wearethemighty.com/military-new...

What 30 years of US gun policy research actually reveals

30 years of research suggest only a small number of gun laws show consistent, measurable effects, according to a new RAND analysis.

www.wearethemighty.com

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 9d

Thanks, Dru! And yes, you should be able to order a print copy

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 10d

We are very grateful to @arnoldventures.bsky.social for supporting this work over the past 8 years!

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 10d

This work has been incredibly important to me. When we started, there was remarkably little evidence on gun policy—despite enormous stakes. Here’s a look at what a decade of focused research has achieved:
www.rand.org/research/gun...

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 10d

We just released our last scheduled update to The Science of Gun Policy, our review of the evidence on the effects of gun laws. {thread}
www.rand.org/research/gun...

Informing the Gun Policy Debate

New resources from RAND's decade-long Gun Policy in America initiative include a visualization tool that allows users to explore how state-level firearm mortality rates relate to a range of social and...

www.rand.org

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 13d

Worth repeating (for no particular reason)

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Dec 28

Sorry Dru. Hope she had a good life.

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral, Clark Gray

Heather Randell @heatherrandell.bsky.social · Dec 9

I just found this cookbook in a little free library. Boy have things changed in the past 85 years.

THE AMERICAN WOMAN'S COOK BOOK

EDITED BY RUTH BEROLZHEIMER

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

Society for the Advancement of Injury and Violence Research @thesavir.bsky.social · Dec 2

The CDC Injury Center faces cuts in FY 2026. Senate bill = full funding. House bill = elimination of ICRCs + firearm violence prevention.
Your voice matters—urge your Rep to support Senate funding!
Read more + act now: buff.ly/Lh7Npll
#InjuryPrevention #PublicHealth

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · Nov 26

Thank you Andrew! Very honored! We really enjoyed putting this paper together and are very pleased by the response it has gotten. Huge thanks also to the NCGVR for the funding for the fifth wave that made this and other recent work possible.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Nov 26

The paper is published in Science Advances, and is open access. Find it here: science.org/doi/epdf/10....

science.org

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Nov 26

They also document a period-specific rise in adult carrying, 2016-2020, which coincides with broader social insecurity and a liberalized carry environment, suggesting that policy solutions must look beyond adolescent violence to address risks posed by durable adult-carry culture.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Nov 26

They highlight two pathways to concealed gun carrying: adolescent carrying, which tends to be short-lived and triggered by direct exposure to gun violence, and adult-onset carrying, which is persistent, increasingly legal, and less tied to immediate victimization.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Nov 26

I also want to congratulate @clanfear.bsky.social, David Kirk and Rob Sampson, whose paper “Dual pathways of concealed gun carrying and use from adolescence to adulthood over a 25-year era of change” was one of two selected for honorable mention by the 2025 Greenwald Award Independent Review Panel!

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Nov 26

This suggests an urgent need to mitigate gun theft and lost police effectiveness when loosening carry laws, since these indirect harms—not actions by permit holders themselves—appear to fuel the observed crime increase.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Nov 26

They find that violent crime rises when states adopt right-to-carry handgun laws, an effect driven in part by a sharp increase in gun theft (50%) and diminished police performance in solving violent crimes.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Nov 26

Congratulations to John J. Donohue and colleagues, whose paper, “Why do right to carry laws increase violence? Effects on gun theft and clearance rates,” was one of two selected for honorable mention by the 2025 Greenwald Award Independent Review Panel! sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Why do right to carry laws increase violence? Effects on gun theft and clearance rates

Since the 1970s most state restrictions on carrying handguns in public have been eased or eliminated. Several of the early impact evaluations of these…

sciencedirect.com

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Nov 26

Here is the Independent Review Panel's full commendation for this award-winning paper:

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Nov 24

Congratulations to @rsbeidas.bsky.social and her team for winning the $5000 Greenwald Award for research on firearm violence prevention for their paper, "Implementation of a Secure Firearm Storage Program in Pediatric Primary Care: A Cluster Randomized Trial"! static1.squarespace.com/static/63924...

static1.squarespace.com

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Oct 31

No. This cannot be right. 56 additional injuries per 100k is not plausible for a 1% increase in food insecurity. Please double check this claim. Or provide the citation, and I will.

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Oct 29

www.wsj.com/us-news/homi...

Six Words Every Killer Should Know: ‘I Feared for My Life, Officer’

The number of legally sanctioned homicides has grown substantially in states with expanded self-defense rights under stand-your-ground laws.

www.wsj.com

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Oct 29

Interesting WSJ analysis of NIBRS data finds justifiable homicides rising more rapidly than total homicides in Stand-Your-Ground states, and faster than it is rising in non-SYG states. The intended effect of SYG!, but they note some real problems with application of these laws.

Six Words Every Killer Should Know: ‘I Feared for My Life, Officer’

The number of legally sanctioned homicides has grown substantially in states with expanded self-defense rights under stand-your-ground laws.

www.wsj.com

Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Oct 16

A joke, I know, but I enjoyed and completely agree with; statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/11/7...

7 reasons to use Bayesian inference! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

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