Christopher Blair
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chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair
@chriswblair.bsky.social
1.8K followers 1.3K following 59 posts

Assistant Prof at Princeton Politics | Ph.D. at UPenn | Alum at UVA | Borders, Militancy, Forced Displacement, Climate Change, Foreign Policy

http://www.chriswblair.com

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Political science 44%
Sociology 30%
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chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26
🚨🚨🚨🚨 New WP (with @benckrick.bsky.social @austinlw.bsky.social) available at the ESOC working paper series:

esoc.princeton.edu/wp39
Title: Refugee Repatriation and Conflict: Evidence from the Maximum Pressure Sanctions Abstract: How does refugee return shape conflict in migrants’ destination communities? We argue that conditions inducing repatriation bear critically on the consequences of return. When refugees return because of worsening conditions in host countries, they are often marginalized and destitute. In this setting, mass return risks amplifying conflict in returnee-receiving communities. We test this theory leveraging the Trump administration’s sudden re-imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018. These “Maximum Pressure” sanctions decimated the Iranian economy and spurred mass return of Afghan refugees from Iran. Exploiting historical returnee settlement patterns and the plausibly exogenous timing of the sanctions, we estimate the causal effect of large-scale refugee repatriation on violence. We find that the returnee influx increased insurgent violence in returnees’ destination communities. We find suggestive evidence for an opportunity cost mechanism. Sanctions-induced currency depreciation reduced household incomes in returnee-receiving areas, lowering reservation wages and driving up insurgent recruitment. We also find evidence that Iran retaliated against the sanctions by escalating support for Afghan insurgent factions. While insurgent violence increased in repatriation communities, there was no effect on communal conflict.

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 11d
Never wanted Canadian citizenship more
nestruck.bsky.social J. Kelly Nestruck @nestruck.bsky.social · 11d
Tonight I watched Prime Minister Mark Carney take the actual Heated Rivalry Canada fleece from Hudson Williams, slip it on and say: “This is true soft power.”

Reposted by Nicholas Birns, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Jason Lyall , and 1 more

nestruck.bsky.social
J. Kelly Nestruck @nestruck.bsky.social · 11d
Tonight I watched Prime Minister Mark Carney take the actual Heated Rivalry Canada fleece from Hudson Williams, slip it on and say: “This is true soft power.”

Reposted by Will Jennings, Steve Peers, Rosemary A. Joyce , and 8 more

reckless.bsky.social
nilay patel @reckless.bsky.social · 16d
“Everyone should be allowed to carry a gun for their safety but the government can murder you in the street if you have a gun” is an incredible endpoint for the conservative moment

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, David R. Miller, Victor Pickard , and 3 more

zackbeauchamp.bsky.social
Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social · 16d
We have just witnessed state security services execute a protestor in cold blood.

If they can get away with it, we have entered a new, exceptionally dangerous stage in America’s authoritarian slide.

Reposted by Alan Richardson, Andrew Chadwick, Christopher Blair

jayrosen.bsky.social
Jay Rosen @jayrosen.bsky.social · 19d
Rare to see discusson of the point @jamellebouie.net makes here. "Most coverage of Trump treats him as president in a functional way, even if he doesn’t perform the civic duties of the office." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...
Rather than designing coverage for a cateory of one — the mad king...1/

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 21d
@alphaville.ft.com also has a nice piece on this, which comes to a similar conclusion

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Could Europe really leverage its $12.6tn pile of US assets?
NIIPing an outlandish idea in the bud
giftarticle.ft.com

Reposted by Christopher Blair

socialmedialab.ca
Social Media Lab @socialmedialab.ca · 28d
What exactly is this $ for? He hasn't been charged with anything. "GoFundMe is reviewing a fundraiser that has amassed more than $370,000 in donations to support the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent who fatally shot Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis" www.newsweek.com/gofundme-rev...
GoFundMe 'reviewing' $350K fundraiser for ICE agent Jonathan Ross
Ross has been identified as the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent who fatally shot Renee Good in her car in Minneapolis.
www.newsweek.com

Reposted by Meredith Farkas, Christopher Blair

seva.bsky.social
Seva @seva.bsky.social · Jan 7
abolish ice is the moderate position to be honest. whichever candidate promises to nuremberg the ice agents has my vote at this point

Reposted by John McLaren, Christopher Blair

pbump.com
Philip Bump @pbump.com · Jan 7
Here are two key frames of the video. (Changed language on the first notation.)

Reposted by Christopher Blair

cmist-cmu.bsky.social
Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology @cmist-cmu.bsky.social · Dec 8
Do historical analogies shape public opinion about foreign policymaking? Read the latest research by @chriswblair.bsky.social, Paul Lendway, and CMIST's @joshschwartz.bsky.social in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Historical Analogies and Public Support for Foreign Policy Action - Christopher Blair, Paul Lendway, Joshua A. Schwartz, 2025
Politicians frequently use historical analogies to justify their preferred foreign policies. However, despite their prevalence, it remains unclear whether, how,...
journals.sagepub.com

Reposted by Christopher Blair

joshschwartz.bsky.social
Joshua Schwartz @joshschwartz.bsky.social · Dec 8
Historical analogies are omnipresent in foreign policy debates—like accusations that Trump's Russia-Ukraine peace plan is akin to appeasing Hitler. But are analogies an effective rhetorical tool? Check out my new article w/ @chriswblair.bsky.social & Paul Lendway.
doi.org/10.1177/0022...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
doi.org

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Oct 24
They wear masks, they carry no identifying badges, they drive vehicles without license plates, and they disappear immigrants into opaque prisons.

If ICE’s enforcement operations are secretive it is fair to characterize them as secret police.

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Oct 13
Naomi Ellemers has a nice annual review on gender stereotypes, which could be a good jumping off point: doi.org/10.1146/annu...
Gender Stereotypes
There are many differences between men and women. To some extent, these are captured in the stereotypical images of these groups. Stereotypes about the way men and women think and behave are widely sh...
doi.org

Reposted by Cas Mudde, Jan W. Mueller, Norbert Schwarz , and 28 more

Reposted by Michael Kevane, Rebecca Tushnet, Christopher Blair , and 1 more

mcbridetd.bsky.social
Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · Sep 20
Tom Homan was investigated for accepting $50,000 from undercover FBI agents. Trump's DOJ shut it down.

The FBI and Justice officials closed the investigation, which a Justice Department appointee had called a “deep state” probe in early 2025.
www.msnbc.com/msnbc/news/t...
Tom Homan was investigated for accepting $50,000 from undercover FBI agents. Trump's DOJ shut it down.
The FBI and Justice officials closed the investigation, which a Justice Department appointee had called a “deep state” probe in early 2025.
www.msnbc.com

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Sep 18
I was quite pessimistic about the trajectory of American democracy in my last response to a Brightline Watch survey.

Clearly I was not sufficiently pessimistic.

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Sep 4
This looks so interesting! Congrats

Reposted by Christopher Blair

mararevkin.bsky.social
Mara Revkin @mararevkin.bsky.social · Jul 10
Excited to share a new open-access article with @benckrick.bsky.social @jonpetkun.bsky.social in @iojournal.bsky.social, "Civilian Harm & Military Legitimacy" www.cambridge.org/core/journal.... This project started in 2018 Mosul, Iraq’s 2nd largest city, in the aftermath of a 9-month battle … 1/7

Reposted by Joanna Bryson, Steven Heydemann, Matthew Bunn , and 14 more

agawande.bsky.social
Atul Gawande @agawande.bsky.social · Jul 1
STAGGERING: This new study of 133 countries is the first to estimate the impact of all USAID’s work. In 2 decades, it has saved *92M* lives. Current cuts, if not reversed, are forecast to cost up to *14M* lives thru 2030. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Jun 13
I just emailed you! Happy to help debug code offline if it'd be helpful.

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Jun 13
I'd try using reghdfe rather than xtreg

Reposted by Anna G. Busse, Jörg Peters, Sam Jones , and 5 more

dandekadt.bsky.social
Dan de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · May 14
🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨

What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?

We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.

Two main contributions...

🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description
Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description
tinyurl.com

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · May 6
Ah, thought I shared the gift link. Try this: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Administration Offers Migrants $1,000 to Voluntarily Leave
The Trump administration is offering undocumented migrants $1,000 and paid travel if they agree to leave the US voluntarily, the latest effort to ramp up mass deportations and slash enforcement costs.
www.bloomberg.com

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · May 5
Agreed! I think this move is a political gambit to inflate deportation numbers.

My quote in the article touches on this - paying people to return home is not likely to keep them from attempting to migrate again

And even if the admin doesn’t care about conflict in origin countries, we should!

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · May 5
A new Trump administration policy offers cash to migrants undertaking "self-deportation." It was a pleasure to speak with @bloomberg.com on some of the potential pitfalls of this approach, building on my research on a cash-for-repatriation scheme in Pakistan

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Refugee Return and Conflict: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
We estimate the causal effect of a large-scale cash assistance program for refugee returnees on conflict in Afghanistan. The program led to a significant increa
papers.ssrn.com

Reposted by Christopher Blair

jeffreyswindle.bsky.social
Jeffrey Swindle @jeffreyswindle.bsky.social · Apr 30
This dataset is truly awesome. Check out this example map (especially Latin America) from their report introducing the dataset. Thanks to the authors & contributors! @chriswblair.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social

Reposted by Andreas De Block, Christopher Blair

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Apr 14
COLLINS: Can President Bukele weigh in on this? Do you plan to return Garcia?

BUKELE: How can I smuggle a terrorist into the United States? Of course I'm not going to do it. The question is preposterous

TRUMP: These are sick people

chriswblair.bsky.social
Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Apr 6
on.ft.com/42gQ4HA How Gatsby foretold Trump’s America
How Gatsby foretold Trump’s America
A century after it was published, F Scott Fitzgerald’s masterpiece is more relevant than ever. Sarah Churchwell on the trouble with ‘careless people’
on.ft.com

Reposted by Christopher Blair

samwang.bsky.social
Sam Wang @samwang.bsky.social · Apr 1
As my colleagues and I wrote in the Daily Princetonian last week, we all have to stand up for our science, and not accept this attack on universities. www.dailyprincetonian.com/article/2025...
To stop intimidation, Eisgruber needs your help
When targeting one institution is a bald attempt to divide and conquer, as is the case with Columbia, it is essential for a coalition or group of institutions and individuals to stand up together.&nbs...
www.dailyprincetonian.com