Terence Wood
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terencewoodnz.bsky.social
Terence Wood
@terencewoodnz.bsky.social

Fellow at the Development Policy Centre. Aid, political economy, Melanesian politics. My writing at: https://devpolicy.org/author/terencewood/

Political science 40%
Sociology 28%

Economists have debated whether aid works of not for years. All of a sudden, with the World's richest man & the World's most powerful man, gutting US aid, the question of whether aid works or not is an urgent one. Does aid work? I try and answer this: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...
Does aid work?
Is aid an effective tool for promoting development?
open.substack.com

note to self. Inequality data in NZ: www.inequality.org.nz/understand/w...
What is our history of inequality? – Inequality: A New Zealand Conversation
www.inequality.org.nz

The UK government is thinking about dismantling the Independent Commission for Aid Impact. Why? Do they actually want their aid to help fewer people? @leecrawfurd.bsky.social & Andrew Mitchell make the case for saving the ICAI: www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-sc...
Don’t Scrap the UK’s Independent Commission for Aid Impact, Make It Better
Last month the UK development minister discussed in parliament the possibility that she might scrap the “Independent Commission for Aid Impact”. While critics have accused her of simply trying to avoi...
www.cgdev.org

From @cgdev.org interesting interviews with aid "agency" staff including MFAT. Warning small samples. But WRT to MFAT, who generally thought they were wonderful, surprise surprise...
So now we can see the official report of what happened to PEPFAR coverage in 2025 compared to 2024.

14.5m fewer people received testing and counselling (leading to a 400k drop in positive tests)
100,000 fewer on ARVs
1.6m drop in ART patients with documented viral load

Reposted by Terence Wood

New Blog: Congress: Please Help Restore Lifesaving Data Systems

The US Congress has restored considerable global health and humanitarian finance. But it needs to ensure the data is available to use it effectively and monitor delivery. (1/n)...

New Zealand's Foreign Minister is a try hard Trumpest. He's only chasing votes. But his thirst for power will hurt the real world: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...
Small Pox First! Of Winston Peters and the WHO
In his thirst for votes our Foreign Minister is making the World less safe for all of us.
open.substack.com

This on deservedness and economic outcomes from @mattbruenig.bsky.social is great. But I'm surprised - given the importance of nature, nurture, chance & whether we have free will all - that anyone ever tries to make the cased for desert based theories of justice. mattbruenig.com/2025/10/03/d...
Desert and Capitalism Again – Matt Bruenig Dot Com
mattbruenig.com

Trump administration happy to lob insanely expensive missiles into Nigeria to little effect. Trump administration equally happy to cut inexpensive, effective peace-building aid project next door in Benin. Great article from @timhirschelburns.bsky.social timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/trump-bomb...

Reposted by Terence Wood

Earlier estimates suggested USAID program cancellations could lead to up to 700,000 additional deaths annually.

New analysis by @charlesjkenny.bsky.social and @justsand.bsky.social finds the toll could reach 1 million now and 1.6 million with future cuts. Learn more:
https://go.cgdev.org/4s0Z8w7
Update on Lives Lost from USAID Cuts
In this blog, we report on an update to our earlier estimates of the potential mortality impacts of the administration’s aid cuts. A similar approach to our original estimates using financial data to ...
go.cgdev.org

Useful from CDG, costs and tradeoffs of increased defence spending. Depressing that, at the end of the day, there's always more money for guns, and never enough for aid. www.cgdev.org/blog/peace-d...
From Peace Dividend to Defense Buildup: Fiscal Implications of Rising Military Spending
Military spending has surged worldwide in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and growing tensions in Asia and the Middle East. This resurgence comes just as global public debt has climbe...
www.cgdev.org
Our health care system is collapsing. Housing is unaffordable. 60% of people are living paycheck to paycheck.

Instead of trying to "run" Venezuela, Trump might try to do a better job running the United States.

Reposted by Terence Wood

Six reasons why Trump’s attack on Venezuela was very wrong:

Everything's dating fast but this from @markleongoldberg.bsky.social & Elizabeth Dickinson is the best analysis I've hear of the Venezuela crisis and the challenges of governing the country now: www.globaldispatches.org/p/the-us-jus...
The U.S. Just Toppled Nicolás Maduro. Here Are the Major Risks
Timely, expert analysis from the International Crisis Group's Elizabeth Dickinson
www.globaldispatches.org

Good analysis of what's happened to US aid, and what the consequences have been: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
The Painful, Seismic Shift in Humanitarian Aid—and What’s Next
In the face of the United States’ aid pullback, UN member states must seize this opportunity to reimagine and renovate an outmoded global humanitarian system.
carnegieendowment.org

Economic development has its sceptics, in this article I look into the case for and against: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...
Growing pains: what to make of economic development
Do larger economies improve the quality of people's lives?
open.substack.com

Trump administration sacks several US ambassadors in Pacific countries: www.rnz.co.nz/internationa...
Three Pacific ambassadors recalled by the U.S. Department of State
Three US ambassadors to the Pacific have been recalled by the State Department
www.rnz.co.nz

A grim update on the number of lives potentially lost thanks to US aid cuts from @cgdev.org: www.cgdev.org/blog/update-...
Update on Lives Lost from USAID Cuts
In this blog, we report on an update to our earlier estimates of the potential mortality impacts of the administration’s aid cuts. A similar approach to our original estimates using financial data to ...
www.cgdev.org

This is spot on from @charlesjkenny.bsky.social. "Aid isn't fairy dust", what it should and shouldn't be focused on: www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
www.cgdev.org

In parts of academia international development is viewed as a mere construct -- a discourse of control. This is nonsense, as I explain in my most recent Substack post development is real and it matters. open.substack.com/pub/terencew...
Does development matter?
What is development? Is it good? And where does aid fit in?
open.substack.com

Want to know what the real -- actually existing -- China wants? There were two great presentations on this at the Australasian Aid Conference. You can watch them via the links in my newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/terencew...
A tale of two Chinas
Understanding China is essential if we want to give good aid in the Pacific
open.substack.com

Also, at least as it was taught to me, it seemed like the median voter's views were fixed and clear, whereas in reality they're often fuzzy and subject to change.

What if we dealt with the actually existing China in the Pacific rather than the phantom menace that haunts Wellington and Canberra? A barnstorming presentation from Eric Olander at the Australasian Aid Conference summarised neatly in this blog: devpolicy.org/china-the-gl...
China, the Global South and the post-American international order - Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre
Current shifts in Western aid are structural and, while China isn't simply filling the gap, it's actively seeking tactical advantage, says Eric Olander.
devpolicy.org

What's the state of democracy like in the Pacific? Listen to this Devpol podcast to hear the answers: devpolicytalks.simplecast.com/episodes/pac...
Pacific democracy: global indices and lived realities | Devpolicy Talks
This episode explores the state of democracy in the Pacific, focusing on a joint report by International IDEA and the Australia National University's Department of Pacific Affairs. The report, release...
devpolicytalks.simplecast.com

Reposted by Libby Robin

File under "Late Capitalism Afterall". Via Gallup polling
i’m not crying you’re crying

xkcd: Fifteen Years

Fifteen Years
xkcd.com
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic,” by Arteaga (@caroartc.bsky.social) and Barone (@vickybarone.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects Of the Opioid Epidemic
Abstract. In this paper, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: t
doi.org