Gavin Kelly
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gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly
@gavin-kelly.bsky.social
6K followers 390 following 300 posts

Chief Executive, Nuffield Foundation

Previous lives:
Chief Executive & Exec. Chair, Resolution Foundation
Founding Chair, Living Wage Commission
Deputy Chief of Staff, 10 Downing Street
Council of Economic Advisors, HMT .. more

Videos

The Resolution Foundation is an independent British think tank established in 2005. Its stated aim is to improve the standard of living of low- to middle-income families.

Source: Wikipedia
History 37%
Political science 20%
Posts Replies Media Videos

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 2d
15% of us think 2026 will be a bad year for us personally, 52% think it will be bad for the country.

Private optimism & public pessimism makes for turbulent politics.
yougov.co.uk YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 2d
How good do Britons think 2026 will be for...

Themselves personally
Good: 39%
Average: 33%
Bad: 15%

The UK
Good: 9%
Average: 26%
Bad: 52%

yougov.co.uk/society/arti...

Reposted by Steven Fielding, Gavin Kelly

yougov.co.uk
YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 2d
How good do Britons think 2026 will be for...

Themselves personally
Good: 39%
Average: 33%
Bad: 15%

The UK
Good: 9%
Average: 26%
Bad: 52%

yougov.co.uk/society/arti...

Reposted by Brigitte Nerlich, Marcos Vera‐Hernández, Melanie Simms , and 3 more

hetanshah.bsky.social
Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 3d
The Council for Science & Technology which advises the PM is looking for a new member ‘with social & behavioural science expertise’. Great opportunity to bring a social science perspective to the heart of policymaking. Apply by 19 Jan
apply-for-public-appointment.service.gov.uk/roles/9075
Appointment details – Council for Science and Technology Member – Apply for a public appointment – GOV.UK
apply-for-public-appointment.service.gov.uk

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 4d
Just started The Land in Winter, Andrew Miller. Promising…

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 4d
Yep. Need regular coaches to be self-aware they aren’t working at an elite academy…. A lot of Pep white-board role playing going on….

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 4d
As a parent of kids playing U15 & U13 I regret to inform you it gets much, much worse….

Reposted by Christian Odendahl

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 4d
Here comes the sun: ‘A London day will last 7 hours and 53 minutes on December 21, compared with a whopping 16 hours and 38 minutes on June 21.’

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Here comes the sun: light amid the UK gloom
It may be hard to remember in the depths of winter but this has been a miraculously bright twelve months
giftarticle.ft.com

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Gavin Kelly

chrisdillow.bsky.social
Chris Dillow @chrisdillow.bsky.social · 6d
New substack: why so many people are content with economic stagnation: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/wallowing-...
Wallowing in poverty
Why we're not bothered about economic growth.
chrisdillow.substack.com

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 13d
Top Christmas card just arrived…

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 13d
Good piece by @chrisgiles.ft.com on the continued theme of the unreliability of key UK economic statistics & why this really matters. Here's a nugget on debt.
www.ft.com/content/5aff...

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 21d
Via new @lukesibieta.bsky.social report on demographic change & schools, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org.

ifs.org.uk/publications...
Demographic change and schools across the UK: lessons from history | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Pupil numbers are falling rapidly across the UK. This report analyses the choices facing policymakers and past declines in pupil numbers.
ifs.org.uk

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 21d
Because it happens in slow-motion we (still) tend to underappreciate the scale of demographic change & its profound implications for society.

Compare (expected) UK child population in 2035 to that in 1971.

Scotland = 44% lower, Wales = 30% lower, Northern Ireland = 34% lower & England 16% lower

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 21d
People sometimes question whether social/economic research improves lives. This report on the enduring impact of Sure Start has the power to do that. Glad @nuffieldfoundation.org funded it.

Reposted by Christine Farquharson, Gavin Kelly

theifs.bsky.social
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 21d
We're pleased to share that our report on the effects of Sure Start on children’s outcomes has won the 'Impact of Analysis' Award in this year's ONS Research Excellence Awards.

🏆 Find out more: ifs.org.uk/news/ifs-sur...
IFS Sure Start research wins ONS Research Excellence Award 2025 | Institute for Fiscal Studies
We are pleased to announce that our research on the effects of Sure Start on children’s outcomes has been awarded ONS' Impact of Analysis Award.
ifs.org.uk

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 23d
ifs.org.uk/articles/har...
The hardest questions for SEND are still to be answered | Institute for Fiscal Studies
How will changes announced at Budget 2025 affect SEND spending in future? How can the government deal with historic deficits accumulated by councils?
ifs.org.uk

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 23d
By 2029/29 there is expected to be a £6bn gap between levels of SEND spending and the funding available. And councils’ cumulative SEND deficits will be £14 bn.

Really important @theifs.bsky.social briefing on this funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org

Reposted by David D. Buck

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 24d
Something that is likely to be overlooked in all this: Richard helped broaden fiscal thinking on public investment, the wider balance sheet & the crucial implications of health/disability for growth, spending & revenues. Hope that thinking continues.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
OBR chair Richard Hughes resigns over Budget day publishing error
The government's official forecaster inadvertently published a crucial Budget document early.
www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Simon Burgess

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 24d
Heartening to see this level of intellectual ambition & breadth in the new 'London Consensus' agenda set out by Tim Besley & many colleagues at the LSE (& beyond).

www.lse.ac.uk/school-of-pu...
Shaping a 21st Century Policy Consensus
www.lse.ac.uk

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 27d
How the broken social contract for Gen Z encourages financial nihilism.

On the nose from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

www.ft.com/content/c17a...
The housing crisis is pushing Gen Z into crypto and economic nihilism
Locked out of home ownership, young adults are turning to risky financial behaviour
www.ft.com

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Jonathan Portes, Nick Pearce

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Nov 25
A small, welcome step on the fiscal devo journey.

www.gov.uk/government/n...
Levy on overnight trips will help mayors invest in local growth
England’s mayors will be able to invest in transport, infrastructure, and the visitor economy through a new levy on overnight stays.
www.gov.uk

Reposted by Gavin Kelly

nuffieldfoundation.org
Nuffield Foundation @nuffieldfoundation.org · Nov 24
Child poverty remains a persistent challenge in the UK. At Wednesday's Budget, attention will be on the Chancellor & whether she will scrap the two-child benefit limit. The Foundation's @amiddletonbeer.bsky.social assesses the evidence for this necessary, but not sufficient, policy.
bit.ly/3XhNsHr
Child Poverty in the UK: Removing the two-child limit is important, but insufficient - Nuffield Foundation
The decisions to be announced at the despatch box on Wednesday will have profound...
bit.ly

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Nov 21
The findings really chime with the powerful argument made by @lisaharker.bsky.social about our care system pushing young people into independence at too young an age.

www.nuffieldfoundation.org/research/our...
Generation abandoned? - Nuffield Foundation
Young people in care are being left further behind: we need to examine why care is not providing the right foundation for adulthood
www.nuffieldfoundation.org

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Nov 21
The conclusion is really important: don't assume that investing in 'older' young people doesn't work. Rather think more broadly about the sorts of relational investments most likely to pay-off.

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Nov 21
Want to help some of the most vulnerable young people in society get on in life?

Then extend the age at which young adults leave foster care, says this fascinating new US study by @khmusen.bsky.social

The effects - particularly on employment rates - are significant.

katemusen.com/uploads/jmp....
katemusen.com

Reposted by Victor Galaz, Jack Stilgoe

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Nov 14
The ethics council to the vast Norwegian sovereign wealth fund (largest in the world) has been suspended by the Norwegian government.

Important & troubling piece by @martinsandbu.ft.com

www.ft.com/content/f6b3...
How Norway jeopardised its integrity overnight
Oslo abruptly changed the ethics rules for the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund
www.ft.com

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Nov 12
Here's Denis Healey when the basic (+ higher) rate of income tax was last raised 50 years ago (BR went up by 2p to 35%). Note the desire to avoid a *100%* marginal rate at the very top.

Reposted by Gavin Kelly

adalovelaceinst.bsky.social
Ada Lovelace Institute @adalovelaceinst.bsky.social · Nov 10
📣Closing this week: We're hiring an Associate Director to lead our Emerging Technology & Industry Practice research domain.

It's an exciting time to join Ada as we begin our new strategy period.

Deadline: 23:59 GMT, 16 November 2025.
www.adalovelaceinstitute.org/job/associat...
Ada Lovelace Institute Associate Director, Emerging Technology & Industry Practice
www.adalovelaceinstitute.org

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Nov 5
So many issues Today programme could have asked Charlie Mayfield about on his new report. Very odd to pursue a line of enquiry about whether the UK statutory sick pay is too generous (we have one of the least generous systems in the OECD).

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Oct 27
Don’t think a 0.3% downgrade is especially surprising (regardless of analysts’ expectations). As brutal as the Budget will be for HMT, I expect they’d prefer this to 3 years of consecutive small downgrades.

on.ft.com/3WWvlq6 Reeves faces £20bn hit to UK public finances from productivity downgrade
Reeves faces £20bn hit to UK public finances from productivity downgrade
Bigger than expected reduction in OBR forecast deals blow to chancellor ahead of Budget
on.ft.com

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Oct 24
So sorry Sunder - shocking - please take care of yourself.