Gavin Kelly
@gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Chief Executive, Nuffield Foundation
Previous lives:
Chief Executive & Exec. Chair, Resolution Foundation
Founding Chair, Living Wage Commission
Deputy Chief of Staff, 10 Downing Street
Council of Economic Advisors, HMT
Previous lives:
Chief Executive & Exec. Chair, Resolution Foundation
Founding Chair, Living Wage Commission
Deputy Chief of Staff, 10 Downing Street
Council of Economic Advisors, HMT
Here's Denis Healey when the basic (+ higher) rate of income tax was last raised 50 years ago (BR went up by 2p to 35%). Note the desire to avoid a *100%* marginal rate at the very top.
November 12, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Here's Denis Healey when the basic (+ higher) rate of income tax was last raised 50 years ago (BR went up by 2p to 35%). Note the desire to avoid a *100%* marginal rate at the very top.
Hard to argue with the central conclusion: serious tax reform is long overdue. Whether its property, capital gains, carbon, motoring or self-employment - the tax system is not fit for purpose. Change will take time & needs to be carefully crafted. This Budget needs to be reforming + revenue-raising
October 13, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Hard to argue with the central conclusion: serious tax reform is long overdue. Whether its property, capital gains, carbon, motoring or self-employment - the tax system is not fit for purpose. Change will take time & needs to be carefully crafted. This Budget needs to be reforming + revenue-raising
Here is the cut out & keep scorecard of revenue raised in 2029/30 from different tax options:
October 13, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Here is the cut out & keep scorecard of revenue raised in 2029/30 from different tax options:
Being clear about what is happening to graduates in the jobs market is important in its own right - but also because simplistic analysis just feeds the beast of suspect narrative (it's all AI etc)
More clear thinking from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
More clear thinking from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
October 10, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Being clear about what is happening to graduates in the jobs market is important in its own right - but also because simplistic analysis just feeds the beast of suspect narrative (it's all AI etc)
More clear thinking from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
More clear thinking from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
I expect we'll be seeing a lot more of this.
October 6, 2025 at 1:51 PM
I expect we'll be seeing a lot more of this.
‘My name is Lewis Capaldi and I’m back’.
September 17, 2025 at 8:09 PM
‘My name is Lewis Capaldi and I’m back’.
The underlying financial position.
September 12, 2025 at 11:16 AM
The underlying financial position.
Essential @nuffieldfoundation.org funded note by @theifs.bsky.social on England's SEND system - highly topical this autumn. Here's the growth in the number of EHCPs over the last decade+.
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
September 12, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Essential @nuffieldfoundation.org funded note by @theifs.bsky.social on England's SEND system - highly topical this autumn. Here's the growth in the number of EHCPs over the last decade+.
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
6 out of 10 households in the bottom half of Britain's (working age) income distribution have savings worth less than 3 months' income.
c. 1 in 2 have under £1k of savings.
Combined with a weak safety net, it makes for a huge amount of social insecurity.
c. 1 in 2 have under £1k of savings.
Combined with a weak safety net, it makes for a huge amount of social insecurity.
September 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
6 out of 10 households in the bottom half of Britain's (working age) income distribution have savings worth less than 3 months' income.
c. 1 in 2 have under £1k of savings.
Combined with a weak safety net, it makes for a huge amount of social insecurity.
c. 1 in 2 have under £1k of savings.
Combined with a weak safety net, it makes for a huge amount of social insecurity.
The impressive rise of the age 90+ population.
33% rise in number of 90+ men over the last decade.
And a 21.7% rise in the overall number of centenarians over last decade.
33% rise in number of 90+ men over the last decade.
And a 21.7% rise in the overall number of centenarians over last decade.
September 3, 2025 at 8:46 AM
The impressive rise of the age 90+ population.
33% rise in number of 90+ men over the last decade.
And a 21.7% rise in the overall number of centenarians over last decade.
33% rise in number of 90+ men over the last decade.
And a 21.7% rise in the overall number of centenarians over last decade.
The cost of cuts to early years provision keep rising.
August 29, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The cost of cuts to early years provision keep rising.
Such a troubling trend.
August 29, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Such a troubling trend.
Best thing I’ve read this summer or for a long time. From HG Wells to Hiroshima via Tasmania - come for the beautiful writing on family & place, stay for the echoes of Sebald.
August 16, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Best thing I’ve read this summer or for a long time. From HG Wells to Hiroshima via Tasmania - come for the beautiful writing on family & place, stay for the echoes of Sebald.
Tom Tugendhat MP going to the place on taxation that no-one else dare go.
July 6, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Tom Tugendhat MP going to the place on taxation that no-one else dare go.
Just awful. I was in No 10 when HPV was introduced - there was such excitement about the possibility of eradicating cervical cancer over a generation.
June 8, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Just awful. I was in No 10 when HPV was introduced - there was such excitement about the possibility of eradicating cervical cancer over a generation.
The post-Covid rise of anti-vax views: 1 in 3 people think there are undisclosed harmful effects.
June 8, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The post-Covid rise of anti-vax views: 1 in 3 people think there are undisclosed harmful effects.
The dangerous decline of child vaccination in England. Such a worrying trend at several levels.
June 8, 2025 at 11:00 AM
The dangerous decline of child vaccination in England. Such a worrying trend at several levels.
I keep hearing it asserted that a higher minimum wage must be really harming the chances of wage progression. Not true according to this new evidence.
May 27, 2025 at 12:40 PM
I keep hearing it asserted that a higher minimum wage must be really harming the chances of wage progression. Not true according to this new evidence.
The likelihood of a fiscally painful downgrade of the OBR's productivity assumption is high & rising. If it happens it will likely be phased rather than a one-off step down. But the consequences would still be large and outweigh other policy choices that are dominating the headlines.
May 26, 2025 at 5:22 PM
The likelihood of a fiscally painful downgrade of the OBR's productivity assumption is high & rising. If it happens it will likely be phased rather than a one-off step down. But the consequences would still be large and outweigh other policy choices that are dominating the headlines.
If you are interested in public policy do look at the new @theifs.bsky.social report on the impact of Sure Start - a powerful piece of work. Here are the estimated benefits and costs.
Really pleased @nuffieldfoundation.org supported this programme of work.
Really pleased @nuffieldfoundation.org supported this programme of work.
May 22, 2025 at 7:36 AM
If you are interested in public policy do look at the new @theifs.bsky.social report on the impact of Sure Start - a powerful piece of work. Here are the estimated benefits and costs.
Really pleased @nuffieldfoundation.org supported this programme of work.
Really pleased @nuffieldfoundation.org supported this programme of work.
The benign consequences of adopting the real Living Wage - a natural experiment.
Surprising absence of some of the oft-cited trade-offs in the findings from this fascinating study @cep-lse.bsky.social @livingwageuk.bsky.social
Surprising absence of some of the oft-cited trade-offs in the findings from this fascinating study @cep-lse.bsky.social @livingwageuk.bsky.social
April 11, 2025 at 6:06 PM
The benign consequences of adopting the real Living Wage - a natural experiment.
Surprising absence of some of the oft-cited trade-offs in the findings from this fascinating study @cep-lse.bsky.social @livingwageuk.bsky.social
Surprising absence of some of the oft-cited trade-offs in the findings from this fascinating study @cep-lse.bsky.social @livingwageuk.bsky.social
What times these are. The US may be turning the clock back on child labour, explains @sarahoconnorft.ft.com
April 8, 2025 at 2:16 PM
What times these are. The US may be turning the clock back on child labour, explains @sarahoconnorft.ft.com
The rise & rise of Deprivation of Liberty orders for children.
Over 100% growth in 6 years, largely under the radar. Over half of DoLs are for > 6 months.
Vital that @nuffieldfjo.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org shines a bright light on this & works with the sector to bring about change.
Over 100% growth in 6 years, largely under the radar. Over half of DoLs are for > 6 months.
Vital that @nuffieldfjo.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org shines a bright light on this & works with the sector to bring about change.
April 1, 2025 at 10:20 AM
The rise & rise of Deprivation of Liberty orders for children.
Over 100% growth in 6 years, largely under the radar. Over half of DoLs are for > 6 months.
Vital that @nuffieldfjo.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org shines a bright light on this & works with the sector to bring about change.
Over 100% growth in 6 years, largely under the radar. Over half of DoLs are for > 6 months.
Vital that @nuffieldfjo.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org shines a bright light on this & works with the sector to bring about change.
The latest child poverty figures are out & they are grim.
Timely to read new @nuffieldfoundation.org funded work by @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social @changingrealities.bsky.social which gives voice to those on low-incomes, sets out an agenda & highlights the contrasting paths of the nations of the UK.
Timely to read new @nuffieldfoundation.org funded work by @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social @changingrealities.bsky.social which gives voice to those on low-incomes, sets out an agenda & highlights the contrasting paths of the nations of the UK.
March 27, 2025 at 12:07 PM
The latest child poverty figures are out & they are grim.
Timely to read new @nuffieldfoundation.org funded work by @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social @changingrealities.bsky.social which gives voice to those on low-incomes, sets out an agenda & highlights the contrasting paths of the nations of the UK.
Timely to read new @nuffieldfoundation.org funded work by @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social @changingrealities.bsky.social which gives voice to those on low-incomes, sets out an agenda & highlights the contrasting paths of the nations of the UK.