Gavin Kelly
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gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly
@gavin-kelly.bsky.social
6.1K followers 400 following 310 posts

Chief Executive, Nuffield Foundation

Previous lives:
Chief Executive & Exec. Chair, Resolution Foundation
Founding Chair, Living Wage Commission
Deputy Chief of Staff, 10 Downing Street
Council of Economic Advisors, HMT .. more

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The Resolution Foundation is an independent British think tank established in 2005. Its stated aim is to improve the standard of living of low- to middle-income families.

Source: Wikipedia
History 37%
Political science 20%
Posts Replies Media Videos

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 4d
Quite so. Will get worse before it gets better!

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 5d
Hoping it’s a good one.

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 8d
A really rewarding read by @martinsandbu.ft.com

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Why your AI companion is not your friend
Why your AI companion is not your friend
First, tech companies usurped the meaning of ‘friends’ and ‘connection’ — now they are coming for ‘companionship’
giftarticle.ft.com

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 9d
As a lifelong severe asthmatic I can testify that 'life changing' isn't hype. Biologic treatments are transformative.

Really troubling that only 21k of the estimated 58k 'severe' group currently receive them.

www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcar...
‘Life-changing’ asthma drug only requires two jabs a year
A trial of GSK’s long-acting injection depemokimab shows that it could cut hospital admissions by 72% with minimal side-effects
www.thetimes.com

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 10d
Here's an open access version of the paper. Kudos to authors @caroartc.bsky.social @vickybarone.bsky.social

viquibarone.github.io/baronevictor...
viquibarone.github.io

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 10d
Bigger picture: this highlights quite how important health can be in reshaping the political landscape. And it is a case study in path dependency.

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 10d
'....from the mid-2000s to 2022, exposure to the opioid epidemic continuously increased the Republican vote share in House, presidential, and gubernatorial
elections... a one-standard-deviation increase in our measure of exposure led to a 4.5 percentage point increase in Republican vote share'

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, William Myers, David Darmofal

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 10d
Incredible social science & data use here.

The immediate story is about how the opioid epidemic (pushed by pharma in high cancer areas), resulted in major opioid death & economic hardship which - through various media/political channels - resulted in a sustained rise in support for the Republicans

Reposted by Tim Bale

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 14d
15% of us think 2026 will be a bad year for us personally, 52% think it will be bad for the country.

Private optimism & public pessimism makes for turbulent politics.
yougov.co.uk YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 14d
How good do Britons think 2026 will be for...

Themselves personally
Good: 39%
Average: 33%
Bad: 15%

The UK
Good: 9%
Average: 26%
Bad: 52%

yougov.co.uk/society/arti...

Reposted by Jonathan Hopkin, Andrew S. Crines, Steven Fielding , and 1 more

yougov.co.uk
YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 14d
How good do Britons think 2026 will be for...

Themselves personally
Good: 39%
Average: 33%
Bad: 15%

The UK
Good: 9%
Average: 26%
Bad: 52%

yougov.co.uk/society/arti...

Reposted by Brigitte Nerlich, Marcos Vera‐Hernández, Melanie Simms , and 4 more

hetanshah.bsky.social
Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 15d
The Council for Science & Technology which advises the PM is looking for a new member ‘with social & behavioural science expertise’. Great opportunity to bring a social science perspective to the heart of policymaking. Apply by 19 Jan
apply-for-public-appointment.service.gov.uk/roles/9075
Appointment details – Council for Science and Technology Member – Apply for a public appointment – GOV.UK
apply-for-public-appointment.service.gov.uk

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 15d
Just started The Land in Winter, Andrew Miller. Promising…

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 15d
Yep. Need regular coaches to be self-aware they aren’t working at an elite academy…. A lot of Pep white-board role playing going on….

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 16d
As a parent of kids playing U15 & U13 I regret to inform you it gets much, much worse….

Reposted by Christian Odendahl

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 16d
Here comes the sun: ‘A London day will last 7 hours and 53 minutes on December 21, compared with a whopping 16 hours and 38 minutes on June 21.’

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Here comes the sun: light amid the UK gloom
It may be hard to remember in the depths of winter but this has been a miraculously bright twelve months
giftarticle.ft.com

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Gavin Kelly

chrisdillow.bsky.social
Chris Dillow @chrisdillow.bsky.social · 17d
New substack: why so many people are content with economic stagnation: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/wallowing-...
Wallowing in poverty
Why we're not bothered about economic growth.
chrisdillow.substack.com

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 24d
Top Christmas card just arrived…

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 25d
Good piece by @chrisgiles.ft.com on the continued theme of the unreliability of key UK economic statistics & why this really matters. Here's a nugget on debt.
www.ft.com/content/5aff...

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Dec 5
Via new @lukesibieta.bsky.social report on demographic change & schools, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org.

ifs.org.uk/publications...
Demographic change and schools across the UK: lessons from history | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Pupil numbers are falling rapidly across the UK. This report analyses the choices facing policymakers and past declines in pupil numbers.
ifs.org.uk

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Dec 5
Because it happens in slow-motion we (still) tend to underappreciate the scale of demographic change & its profound implications for society.

Compare (expected) UK child population in 2035 to that in 1971.

Scotland = 44% lower, Wales = 30% lower, Northern Ireland = 34% lower & England 16% lower

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Dec 4
People sometimes question whether social/economic research improves lives. This report on the enduring impact of Sure Start has the power to do that. Glad @nuffieldfoundation.org funded it.

Reposted by Christine Farquharson, Gavin Kelly

theifs.bsky.social
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Dec 4
We're pleased to share that our report on the effects of Sure Start on children’s outcomes has won the 'Impact of Analysis' Award in this year's ONS Research Excellence Awards.

🏆 Find out more: ifs.org.uk/news/ifs-sur...
IFS Sure Start research wins ONS Research Excellence Award 2025 | Institute for Fiscal Studies
We are pleased to announce that our research on the effects of Sure Start on children’s outcomes has been awarded ONS' Impact of Analysis Award.
ifs.org.uk

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Dec 2
ifs.org.uk/articles/har...
The hardest questions for SEND are still to be answered | Institute for Fiscal Studies
How will changes announced at Budget 2025 affect SEND spending in future? How can the government deal with historic deficits accumulated by councils?
ifs.org.uk

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Dec 2
By 2029/29 there is expected to be a £6bn gap between levels of SEND spending and the funding available. And councils’ cumulative SEND deficits will be £14 bn.

Really important @theifs.bsky.social briefing on this funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org

Reposted by David D. Buck

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Dec 1
Something that is likely to be overlooked in all this: Richard helped broaden fiscal thinking on public investment, the wider balance sheet & the crucial implications of health/disability for growth, spending & revenues. Hope that thinking continues.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
OBR chair Richard Hughes resigns over Budget day publishing error
The government's official forecaster inadvertently published a crucial Budget document early.
www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Simon Burgess

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Dec 1
Heartening to see this level of intellectual ambition & breadth in the new 'London Consensus' agenda set out by Tim Besley & many colleagues at the LSE (& beyond).

www.lse.ac.uk/school-of-pu...
Shaping a 21st Century Policy Consensus
www.lse.ac.uk

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Nov 28
How the broken social contract for Gen Z encourages financial nihilism.

On the nose from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

www.ft.com/content/c17a...
The housing crisis is pushing Gen Z into crypto and economic nihilism
Locked out of home ownership, young adults are turning to risky financial behaviour
www.ft.com

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Jonathan Portes, Nick Pearce

gavin-kelly.bsky.social
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Nov 25
A small, welcome step on the fiscal devo journey.

www.gov.uk/government/n...
Levy on overnight trips will help mayors invest in local growth
England’s mayors will be able to invest in transport, infrastructure, and the visitor economy through a new levy on overnight stays.
www.gov.uk

Reposted by Gavin Kelly

nuffieldfoundation.org
Nuffield Foundation @nuffieldfoundation.org · Nov 24
Child poverty remains a persistent challenge in the UK. At Wednesday's Budget, attention will be on the Chancellor & whether she will scrap the two-child benefit limit. The Foundation's @amiddletonbeer.bsky.social assesses the evidence for this necessary, but not sufficient, policy.
bit.ly/3XhNsHr
Child Poverty in the UK: Removing the two-child limit is important, but insufficient - Nuffield Foundation
The decisions to be announced at the despatch box on Wednesday will have profound...
bit.ly

Reposted by Joanna Bryson, Lawrence F. Katz, Dan Goldhaber , and 15 more

qjeharvard.bsky.social
The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · Nov 23
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic,” by Arteaga (@caroartc.bsky.social) and Barone (@vickybarone.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects Of the Opioid Epidemic
Abstract. In this paper, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: t
doi.org