@kipcat.bsky.social
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I am a big fan of qualitative work.
But there is not some sort of rigorous qualitative work that contradicts the basic economic metrics and people should not pretend that there is.
Or if they are aware of it, maybe drop a link?
But there is not some sort of rigorous qualitative work that contradicts the basic economic metrics and people should not pretend that there is.
Or if they are aware of it, maybe drop a link?
Barring a handful of real clunkers, I do respect Stancil as a smart guy, but—and for reasons that make sense—his inability to acknowledge the mere existence of qualitative analysis and recognition of only the most narrow quant does prevent him from being a good analyst.
people can buy more stuff today than ever before, more or less. compared to more than 3-4 years ago and it’s not even close. we are vastly wealthier on average now than even within near living memory
November 9, 2025 at 6:47 PM
I am a big fan of qualitative work.
But there is not some sort of rigorous qualitative work that contradicts the basic economic metrics and people should not pretend that there is.
Or if they are aware of it, maybe drop a link?
But there is not some sort of rigorous qualitative work that contradicts the basic economic metrics and people should not pretend that there is.
Or if they are aware of it, maybe drop a link?
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this has been one of my central arguments the past ten years. the theory underpinning the anti-democratic elements of the american constitutional order is wrong!
The more democratic elements of the American constitutional and economic order are actually throwing up road blocks to Trumpism. Protests and boycotts and low level courts and juries and cetera. Elite actors on the other hand are all too frequently caving. Fascinating study in who actually cares!
BREAKING: JUSTICE DEPARTMENT EATS A LOSS IN 'SANDWICH GUY' CASE AS JURORS FIND DEFENDANT NOT GUILTY www.nbcnews.com/politics/jus...
November 6, 2025 at 10:38 PM
this has been one of my central arguments the past ten years. the theory underpinning the anti-democratic elements of the american constitutional order is wrong!
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ok so i bought some consumer data and decided i'd test this single layer neural network with a linear activation function from the image below. after testing it against other algorithms i found that this estimator thing had the lowest variance of any linear unbiased training algorithm??
November 6, 2025 at 11:04 PM
ok so i bought some consumer data and decided i'd test this single layer neural network with a linear activation function from the image below. after testing it against other algorithms i found that this estimator thing had the lowest variance of any linear unbiased training algorithm??
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straight-up jury nullification. this guy did it, confessed to it, and the jury instructions explicitly said that if he did it intentionally, it was assault.
BREAKING: JUSTICE DEPARTMENT EATS A LOSS IN 'SANDWICH GUY' CASE AS JURORS FIND DEFENDANT NOT GUILTY www.nbcnews.com/politics/jus...
Jury acquits D.C. 'sandwich guy' charged with chucking a sub at a federal agent
Sean Dunn faced single misdemeanor offense after federal grand jurors refused to indict him on the felony charge sought by prosecutors.
www.nbcnews.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:34 PM
straight-up jury nullification. this guy did it, confessed to it, and the jury instructions explicitly said that if he did it intentionally, it was assault.
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setting aside everything else it's kind of demented how conspiratorial left-nimbys get. i am sorry but no, that annoying yimby you're arguing with online is not being paid by soros and/or tyler cowen. this is just not real
viewing the anti props 2-5 NIMBY coalition is pretty remarkable. it’s like 80% MAGA NIMBYs who hate the idea of affordable housing
and the other 20% is the dumbest leftists on earth who are too stupid to realize they’re just helping the first group
and the other 20% is the dumbest leftists on earth who are too stupid to realize they’re just helping the first group
October 27, 2025 at 1:11 PM
setting aside everything else it's kind of demented how conspiratorial left-nimbys get. i am sorry but no, that annoying yimby you're arguing with online is not being paid by soros and/or tyler cowen. this is just not real
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Three senior Republican appropriators agree it doesn't make any sense for Democrats to agree to a government funding deal unless Trump actually adheres to the deal.
The Democratic alternative CR has language that would begin to address this, but Trump and Vought are completely opposed.
The Democratic alternative CR has language that would begin to address this, but Trump and Vought are completely opposed.
October 15, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Three senior Republican appropriators agree it doesn't make any sense for Democrats to agree to a government funding deal unless Trump actually adheres to the deal.
The Democratic alternative CR has language that would begin to address this, but Trump and Vought are completely opposed.
The Democratic alternative CR has language that would begin to address this, but Trump and Vought are completely opposed.
Reposted
Trump: we will do project 2025
Harris: he will do project 2025
Public: oh that’s bad
Trump: I’m not gonna do it have never heard of it
Harris: he’s still gonna do it
Media: no one can predict the future 77 pinocchios
Harris: he will do project 2025
Public: oh that’s bad
Trump: I’m not gonna do it have never heard of it
Harris: he’s still gonna do it
Media: no one can predict the future 77 pinocchios
Last year, CNN ran a “fact check” of Kamala HQ that claimed we were lying for saying Trump’s plan is Project 2025.
Now Trump is outright admitting it’s his plan.
Legacy media failed the country.
Now Trump is outright admitting it’s his plan.
Legacy media failed the country.
October 3, 2025 at 12:19 AM
Trump: we will do project 2025
Harris: he will do project 2025
Public: oh that’s bad
Trump: I’m not gonna do it have never heard of it
Harris: he’s still gonna do it
Media: no one can predict the future 77 pinocchios
Harris: he will do project 2025
Public: oh that’s bad
Trump: I’m not gonna do it have never heard of it
Harris: he’s still gonna do it
Media: no one can predict the future 77 pinocchios
@theatlantic.com "White House aides and allies believe that they will have the advantage as Washington careers toward tomorrow’s deadline": should be "careens" www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
Trump’s Grand Plan for a Government Shutdown
The Trump administration might use a shutdown to finish the job that DOGE started.
www.theatlantic.com
October 1, 2025 at 6:01 AM
@theatlantic.com "White House aides and allies believe that they will have the advantage as Washington careers toward tomorrow’s deadline": should be "careens" www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
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Coat Hack: Wearing a 18x7-foot-long, standard wool toga negates the need for a wool coat.
The effect of car dependency: in 1940, Basil Rathbone was photographed wearing an overcoat outside his home. As more men relied on cars, overcoats became shorter to accommodate drivers. Today, the right is marketed as an "overcoat," even if it would've been considered more sport coat length in 1940.
September 21, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Coat Hack: Wearing a 18x7-foot-long, standard wool toga negates the need for a wool coat.
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New at Tusk: What a Star Trek episode has to say to Democratic leaders about compromise versus conflict
"A Quality of Mercy" and a government shutdown
When you have the right leader for the wrong time
open.substack.com
September 16, 2025 at 1:08 PM
New at Tusk: What a Star Trek episode has to say to Democratic leaders about compromise versus conflict
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My neighbor in Orlando mentioned this EXACT concern to me last night!
September 7, 2025 at 5:01 PM
My neighbor in Orlando mentioned this EXACT concern to me last night!
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Lawyer brain (laudatory) having deep qualitative knowledge of processes, and the relationship between processes and the outcomes they produce; Lawyer brain (derogatory) prizing process for it’s own sake, prioritizing process over outcomes
September 6, 2025 at 4:36 AM
Lawyer brain (laudatory) having deep qualitative knowledge of processes, and the relationship between processes and the outcomes they produce; Lawyer brain (derogatory) prizing process for it’s own sake, prioritizing process over outcomes
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I don't think legal positivists have fully recognized how right they were. Legality is just a social fact.
The dipshits did it. DoD now points to war.gov. They’ve rebranded it DOW with a new logo and shitty fonts. Except there are obviously tons of pages where it’s still DoD.
September 5, 2025 at 9:02 PM
I don't think legal positivists have fully recognized how right they were. Legality is just a social fact.
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Not sure whose fault it is primarily that most people don't seem to know that the president is basically a manager whose job is to carry out the will of Congress, and not The Country's Boss
This “explicit” is a weird editorial choice. The constitution gives the president no power over this at all. It’s not ambiguous.
August 31, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Not sure whose fault it is primarily that most people don't seem to know that the president is basically a manager whose job is to carry out the will of Congress, and not The Country's Boss
Lmao attribution, ngl pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
August 17, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Lmao attribution, ngl pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
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We took a close look at Split Ticket's WAR metric, which has become influential in Democratic circles for suggesting moderates significantly outperform progressives.
Our finding: The metric contains systematic biases that overstate the advantage of moderation. A corrected model shows no advantage.🧵
Our finding: The metric contains systematic biases that overstate the advantage of moderation. A corrected model shows no advantage.🧵
Do Moderates Do Better?
Uncovering Bias in Split Ticket’s WAR Scores
data4democracy.substack.com
August 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
We took a close look at Split Ticket's WAR metric, which has become influential in Democratic circles for suggesting moderates significantly outperform progressives.
Our finding: The metric contains systematic biases that overstate the advantage of moderation. A corrected model shows no advantage.🧵
Our finding: The metric contains systematic biases that overstate the advantage of moderation. A corrected model shows no advantage.🧵
Reposted
following our anlaysis of moderates and WAR, this new piece (conducted completely independent of what me and mark were doing!) confirms the same finding: very little relationship between WAR and ideology, & more important, completely swamped by uncertainty data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
August 14, 2025 at 8:14 PM
following our anlaysis of moderates and WAR, this new piece (conducted completely independent of what me and mark were doing!) confirms the same finding: very little relationship between WAR and ideology, & more important, completely swamped by uncertainty data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
Reposted
Oh neat, there's a version of uBlock Origin for Safari now apps.apple.com/us/app/ubloc...
uBlock Origin Lite
uBO Lite (uBOL) is a reliable and efficient content blocker.
The default ruleset corresponds to uBlock Origin's default filterset:
- uBlock Origin's built-in filter lists
- EasyList
- EasyPrivacy
-...
apps.apple.com
August 5, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Oh neat, there's a version of uBlock Origin for Safari now apps.apple.com/us/app/ubloc...
Reposted
"Politicians with a vision and a strong, clear rhetorical appeal, like Trump, Bernie, AOC, and now Mamdani, are those who excite people. People become disappointed and disillusioned when they lapse into focus-group-tested canting. "
www.unpopularfront.news/p/against-po...
www.unpopularfront.news/p/against-po...
Against Polling
It's 90% Bullshit
www.unpopularfront.news
August 6, 2025 at 5:29 PM
"Politicians with a vision and a strong, clear rhetorical appeal, like Trump, Bernie, AOC, and now Mamdani, are those who excite people. People become disappointed and disillusioned when they lapse into focus-group-tested canting. "
www.unpopularfront.news/p/against-po...
www.unpopularfront.news/p/against-po...
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I was pretty chuffed by this callout in The Economist. But Betsey was less sure, suggesting that perhaps the roles of full-time economics professor and amateur comedian ought to be separate. In any other era, I might agree. But today, absurdity seems central to both. economist.com/culture/2025...
July 30, 2025 at 1:01 AM
I was pretty chuffed by this callout in The Economist. But Betsey was less sure, suggesting that perhaps the roles of full-time economics professor and amateur comedian ought to be separate. In any other era, I might agree. But today, absurdity seems central to both. economist.com/culture/2025...
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If your argument for cutting rates is that the economy is at full employment, the only counter argument needed is to explain what the words "full" and "employment" mean.
Tim Scott: "Our employment? Almost at full employment, 4.1 percent. What else do we need to have this economy on fire? We need lower interest rates."
July 31, 2025 at 12:29 PM
If your argument for cutting rates is that the economy is at full employment, the only counter argument needed is to explain what the words "full" and "employment" mean.
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The man predicted the future and he told you exactly how it was going to happen, too
July 26, 2025 at 11:09 PM
The man predicted the future and he told you exactly how it was going to happen, too
Reposted
Was reprinted in the 1982 “Improving Newswriting:
the Best of The Bulletin of the American Society of Newspaper Editors” and The Archive has this clean scan of that.
the Best of The Bulletin of the American Society of Newspaper Editors” and The Archive has this clean scan of that.
July 21, 2025 at 3:01 AM
Was reprinted in the 1982 “Improving Newswriting:
the Best of The Bulletin of the American Society of Newspaper Editors” and The Archive has this clean scan of that.
the Best of The Bulletin of the American Society of Newspaper Editors” and The Archive has this clean scan of that.
Reposted
So the @washingtonpost.com’s message to its thousands of federal readers is that they don’t deserve their pay?
July 10, 2025 at 4:50 PM
So the @washingtonpost.com’s message to its thousands of federal readers is that they don’t deserve their pay?
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Also, Mamdani and his supporters should understand that a key part of building support for him is criticizing the New York Times. Explicitly.
Mamdani and his surrogates should be saying “AG Sulzberger” and “Pat Healy” every day, as in “AG Sulzberger’s paper ran another Mamdani hit piece today.”
Mamdani and his surrogates should be saying “AG Sulzberger” and “Pat Healy” every day, as in “AG Sulzberger’s paper ran another Mamdani hit piece today.”
July 7, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Also, Mamdani and his supporters should understand that a key part of building support for him is criticizing the New York Times. Explicitly.
Mamdani and his surrogates should be saying “AG Sulzberger” and “Pat Healy” every day, as in “AG Sulzberger’s paper ran another Mamdani hit piece today.”
Mamdani and his surrogates should be saying “AG Sulzberger” and “Pat Healy” every day, as in “AG Sulzberger’s paper ran another Mamdani hit piece today.”