Prof Christina Pagel
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chrischirp.bsky.social
Prof Christina Pagel
@chrischirp.bsky.social

Prof Operational Research , @UCL_CORU, passionate about health care, women in STEMs, defending liberal democracy (!). Member of @independentsage, posts personal. https://www.trumpactiontracker.info/

Christina Pagel FMedSci HonFFPH is a German-British mathematician and professor of operational research at University College London (UCL) within UCL's Clinical Operational Research Unit (CORU), which applies operational research, data analysis and mathematical modelling to topics in healthcare. She was Director of UCL CORU from 2017 to 2022 and is currently Vice President of the UK Operational Research Society. She also co-leads, alongside Rebecca Shipley, UCL's CHIMERA research hub which analyses data from critically ill hospital patients. .. more

Public Health 39%
Medicine 29%

This comes from reporting of Trump's own words (his post on truth social below) Anything on the chart comes from reputable news articles.

Reposted by Christina Pagel

The CDC changed the universal vaccine schedule & no longer recommends

Rotavirus
Hepatitis A & B
Meningitis
Influenza
RSV

I’ve cared for previously healthy kids who died from RSV, influenza and meningitis.

We all are going to be caring for a lot more now.

In our already overflowing hospitals

Ok - you didn't need to be rude about it. I'm always happy to correct actual mistakes.
It was a typo in my original Trump Tracker entry (the orig Guardian article mentions both F35s and F16s). I've corrected the entry on the tracker, on the googlesheet and in the timelines on my substack to F35.

Reposted by Christina Pagel

A fascinating corrective by Scarlett Maguire, full of striking stats

“Recent data… shows that 1 in 3 young women now say they will vote for the Green Party. Meanwhile, young men, far from being more right wing than the population as a whole, are as likely to vote Green as they are Reform (20%)”
Young women are radicalising
Britain's young women are sad, alienated and increasingly left-wing
www.newstatesman.com
"US attack on Greenland would mean end of Nato, says Danish PM" www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
US attack on Greenland would mean end of Nato, says Danish PM
Mette Frederiksen criticises Donald Trump’s ‘unacceptable pressure’ as Greenland counterpart condemns ‘fantasies’
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Christina Pagel

The U.S. took the unprecedented step Monday of dropping the number of vaccines it recommends for every child -- leaving other immunizations, such as flu shots, open to families to choose but without clear guidance. https://to.pbs.org/3N3Zq5E
Trump administration cuts number of vaccines it recommends for every child
Medical experts are slamming the move, saying it could lead to reduced uptake of important vaccinations and increase disease.
www.pbs.org
The Corporation for Public Broadcasting has been dissolved, ending its 58 years as the primary funder for PBS, NPR and local TV and radio stations
Corporation For Public Broadcasting Is Dissolved After 58 Years Of Service
www.huffpost.com
If there is an argument then this is the argument. But lol I can’t find where this obviously false stat is coming from. And if the government does believe more than half the families in the UK are using it as their primary news source then woah maybe time to up the scrutiny of it!
The National Science Foundation just had a big reorganization. Here are five things to know | Science | AAAS www.science.org/content/arti... 🧪
The National Science Foundation just had a big reorganization. Here are five things to know
Divisions and rotators disappear as more career staff become supervisors
www.science.org

yes - every action in the chart is on TrumpActionTracker more generally (www.trumpactiontracker.info) and these specific ones are also on this googlesheet (with links to news stories)
tinyurl.com/PagelVE
Venezuela timeline by Prof Christina Pagel, TrumpActionTracker.info
tinyurl.com
One of most remarkable US presentations at UN Security Council I've ever seen.

- No reference to UN Charter legal justification
- Claims Panama as precedent (which the UN condemned)
- Energy reserves ⤵️ as justification is illegal
- Sharp contrast with US Ambassador Pickering presentation in 1989

Reposted by Christina Pagel

Outstanding as always. Pressure building on the EU to lay down some definitive red lines and unequivocal support both diplomatically and, if needed, militarily regarding Greenland. Any US action should be viewed as a breach of NATO guidelines. Complex as US, currently, a member.

Reposted by Christina Pagel

basically the shorthand is: "normal" older people are most likely to be on facebook, younger people don't do text-based social media now.

there's not a big case for any govt/Labour presence on social media outside facebook and possibly tiktok (which I don't know well) tbh

More details on my substack post

christinapagel.substack.com/p/the-paper-...

All actions from TrumpActionTracker: www.trumpactiontracker.info

11/11
The paper trail to Caracas
How the US spent months building the legal and military case for attacking Venezuela
christinapagel.substack.com

Trump has been pretty clear all year that he views military and economic might as the only important geopolitical factor. If he can, and he wants to, he will.

This is all happening in plain sight, and if we refuse to believe our eyes we only have ourselves to blame. 10/11

Since Saturday, Trump has already threatened Cuba, Colombia and Mexico with military action & reiterated his desire to annex Greenland.

US has already struck Colombian boats, sanctions Colombian president, threatened Mexico and sent new envoy to Greenland.
9/11

The combined timeline of military attacks and build-up events is shown below.

The full list of events in the chart, along with the date of each and a news source for each, is available in this Googlesheet
tinyurl.com/PagelVE

8/11

By the time Maduro was indicted and seized last weekend, the groundwork had been laid for regime-change operations to be presented not as invasion or war, but as self-defence and counter-narco-terrorism.
7/11

US first asserted unilateral executive power to use the military against non-state actors, then retrofitted an armed-conflict framework to justify lethal force, secrecy, & immunity.

Sanctions, terrorist designations, & reclassification of fentanyl as a weapon further militarised drug policy.

6/11

Summer & autumn saw actions amounting to a deliberate legal construction designed to normalise an overseas war without congressional authorisation by re-badging criminal drug-smuggling activity as armed conflict and terrorism.

5/11

In military build-up, there was a steady increase in the assembled armed forces, inc the arrival of aircraft used for special operations on Xmas Eve.

Trump himself both threatened Maduro directly at the end of Nov & then signalled to reporters that a ground operation was imminent.

4/11

Reposted by Alison Phipps

Even more instructive is the build up.

While November and early December were relatively quiet in terms of actual strikes (see above), those months instead saw a clear escalation in military materiel, threats, and legal ‘justifications’.

3/11

Reposted by Alison Phipps

The military strikes themselves show a clear escalation. US had carried out 35 by end of 2025, killing > 115 people.

As well as boat strikes, the US started seizing oil tankers in Dec. The attacks culminated with a CIA drone strike on a Venezuelan port in late Dec & finally the Jan attack.

2/11
🚨🧵on Venezuela

While the final US military operation last weekend might have been under cover of darkness, the build-up to it was out in the open for all to see.

I've constructed some timelines of the immediate build-up covering both the strikes and the supporting actions...

1/11

Reposted by Christina Pagel

I mean what was the point of all this, if they are gonna let it slide because running scared of Musk?

www.gov.uk/government/p...
Crime and Policing Bill: child sexual abuse material factsheet
www.gov.uk

Reposted by Christina Pagel

There is no counter narrative when there is an algorithm designed to amplify one side and suppress the other. There is no free speech angle on X for this reason either
Cabinet Office Minister Baroness Anderson tells the Lords the Government will keep on using X.

"I still believe that X is an appropriate platform to use because I believe in freedom of speech..."

"It is incredibly important that there is a counter narrative on those platforms," she says.
What X is allowing Grok to do is unlawful or regulatory-illegal in multiple jurisdictions, creates clear DSA violations, and continues despite regulator scrutiny. The images do not need to be pornographic, non-consensual sexualised or intimate depictions are enough.
Elon Musk chatbot repeatedly making CSAM on demand should be one of the single biggest stories right now and it's effectively a collective shrug instead
I absolutely HATE it when Marjorie Taylor Greene makes sense.
Keir Starmer's spokesman asked if Government will still use X now it posts indecent images of children, replies "we always keep communication channels under review to reach public in most appropriate way possible”

"Operators are under obligation to act appropriately. We always hope they would do"