@zackpolanski.bsky.social
#Walthamstow had an 18,000 #Labour majority at #GE2024
( #Greens came 2nd on 9,000)
Walthamstow had a 34,000 #Labour majority at #GE2019
(Greens came 3rd on 5,000)
It's 1 of #Starmer 's SAFEST seats in the UK ...
#Walthamstow had an 18,000 #Labour majority at #GE2024
( #Greens came 2nd on 9,000)
Walthamstow had a 34,000 #Labour majority at #GE2019
(Greens came 3rd on 5,000)
It's 1 of #Starmer 's SAFEST seats in the UK ...
February 18, 2026 at 11:32 PM
@zackpolanski.bsky.social
#Walthamstow had an 18,000 #Labour majority at #GE2024
( #Greens came 2nd on 9,000)
Walthamstow had a 34,000 #Labour majority at #GE2019
(Greens came 3rd on 5,000)
It's 1 of #Starmer 's SAFEST seats in the UK ...
#Walthamstow had an 18,000 #Labour majority at #GE2024
( #Greens came 2nd on 9,000)
Walthamstow had a 34,000 #Labour majority at #GE2019
(Greens came 3rd on 5,000)
It's 1 of #Starmer 's SAFEST seats in the UK ...
I haven't dbl-checked this, but VERY interesting if true :
#Walthamstow had an 18,000 #Labour majority at #GE2024
( #Greens came 2nd on 9,000)
Walthamstow had a 34,000 #Labour majority at #GE2019
(Greens came 3rd on 5,000)
It's 1 of #Starmer 's SAFEST seats in the UK ...
#Polanski
#Walthamstow had an 18,000 #Labour majority at #GE2024
( #Greens came 2nd on 9,000)
Walthamstow had a 34,000 #Labour majority at #GE2019
(Greens came 3rd on 5,000)
It's 1 of #Starmer 's SAFEST seats in the UK ...
#Polanski
February 18, 2026 at 8:06 PM
Starmer making catastrophic error. It is not the far right taking his votes, it is the pro-European parties (Grn+LD+SNP+PC).
Voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters (YG; 15-16 February):
Lab 50%
Grn* 21%
LD* 12%
Ref 7%
Con 4%
SNP* 2%
PC* 2%
oth 2%
Loss to pro-EU* = 37%
Loss to far right = 11%
Voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters (YG; 15-16 February):
Lab 50%
Grn* 21%
LD* 12%
Ref 7%
Con 4%
SNP* 2%
PC* 2%
oth 2%
Loss to pro-EU* = 37%
Loss to far right = 11%
February 17, 2026 at 12:06 PM
Starmer making catastrophic error. It is not the far right taking his votes, it is the pro-European parties (Grn+LD+SNP+PC).
Voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters (YG; 15-16 February):
Lab 50%
Grn* 21%
LD* 12%
Ref 7%
Con 4%
SNP* 2%
PC* 2%
oth 2%
Loss to pro-EU* = 37%
Loss to far right = 11%
Voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters (YG; 15-16 February):
Lab 50%
Grn* 21%
LD* 12%
Ref 7%
Con 4%
SNP* 2%
PC* 2%
oth 2%
Loss to pro-EU* = 37%
Loss to far right = 11%
Yes, and (Lab+Gr)/2>Ref.
The latest MRP (MiC)
Ref 30
Lab 28
Gr 23
Applying average poll swings to GE2024
Gr 29
Ref 26
Lab 25
How Workers Party voters go & who can get better turnout are likely to be deciding factors.
Although denying Andy Burnham may have a local negative effect on Labour.
The latest MRP (MiC)
Ref 30
Lab 28
Gr 23
Applying average poll swings to GE2024
Gr 29
Ref 26
Lab 25
How Workers Party voters go & who can get better turnout are likely to be deciding factors.
Although denying Andy Burnham may have a local negative effect on Labour.
February 15, 2026 at 2:06 PM
Yes, and (Lab+Gr)/2>Ref.
The latest MRP (MiC)
Ref 30
Lab 28
Gr 23
Applying average poll swings to GE2024
Gr 29
Ref 26
Lab 25
How Workers Party voters go & who can get better turnout are likely to be deciding factors.
Although denying Andy Burnham may have a local negative effect on Labour.
The latest MRP (MiC)
Ref 30
Lab 28
Gr 23
Applying average poll swings to GE2024
Gr 29
Ref 26
Lab 25
How Workers Party voters go & who can get better turnout are likely to be deciding factors.
Although denying Andy Burnham may have a local negative effect on Labour.
I can't recall exactly. I stopped using Twitter a couple of years ago apart from around GE2024. I think it may have been around then. I remember coming across some posts thinking eurgh that's pretty rancid.
I think when the Telegraph finally gave up the pretence of any objectivity about anything.
I think when the Telegraph finally gave up the pretence of any objectivity about anything.
February 14, 2026 at 9:49 AM
I can't recall exactly. I stopped using Twitter a couple of years ago apart from around GE2024. I think it may have been around then. I remember coming across some posts thinking eurgh that's pretty rancid.
I think when the Telegraph finally gave up the pretence of any objectivity about anything.
I think when the Telegraph finally gave up the pretence of any objectivity about anything.
True, & I also believe the Murrell arrest would have had its primary effect on voters by now anyway.
Whether there is anything else to reveal that might go beyond Murrell, remains to be seen, but I think that would probably have come out in whispers by GE2024.
I'd be surprised if more is to come.
Whether there is anything else to reveal that might go beyond Murrell, remains to be seen, but I think that would probably have come out in whispers by GE2024.
I'd be surprised if more is to come.
Independence doesn't belong to the SNP, and Westminster is hardly a model of propriety.
I am cynical about the timing of these charges but the outcome won't influence my vote. Either way, I still want Scottish independence.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
February 14, 2026 at 6:05 AM
True, & I also believe the Murrell arrest would have had its primary effect on voters by now anyway.
Whether there is anything else to reveal that might go beyond Murrell, remains to be seen, but I think that would probably have come out in whispers by GE2024.
I'd be surprised if more is to come.
Whether there is anything else to reveal that might go beyond Murrell, remains to be seen, but I think that would probably have come out in whispers by GE2024.
I'd be surprised if more is to come.
Absolutely. I think they were devoid of ideas tbh. Marketing and PR spin only gets you so far in politics without any substance behind it. Starmer's Labour are are a bunch of careerists & lobbyists. They gutted out anyone with any social principles. That was evident well before GE2024.
February 11, 2026 at 9:21 AM
Absolutely. I think they were devoid of ideas tbh. Marketing and PR spin only gets you so far in politics without any substance behind it. Starmer's Labour are are a bunch of careerists & lobbyists. They gutted out anyone with any social principles. That was evident well before GE2024.
GE2024 messaging was weak because of Swinney focussed on stopping Reform (and not Labour). The toppling of NS & all the media frenzy over it too didn't help. I do think simple messaging of 'change' carried Labour vote up here. I was just surprised at there being so many gulliable Scots in our midst.
February 11, 2026 at 8:57 AM
GE2024 messaging was weak because of Swinney focussed on stopping Reform (and not Labour). The toppling of NS & all the media frenzy over it too didn't help. I do think simple messaging of 'change' carried Labour vote up here. I was just surprised at there being so many gulliable Scots in our midst.
For the life of me I still can't quite fathom how Labour got 37 seats here in GE2024. It's mind boggling how stupid voters can be with simple messaging/slogans like 'kick the Tories out'.
February 11, 2026 at 7:15 AM
For the life of me I still can't quite fathom how Labour got 37 seats here in GE2024. It's mind boggling how stupid voters can be with simple messaging/slogans like 'kick the Tories out'.
Ah, McTernan. That's an interesting call. Indeed, how Labour have slipped from their GE2024 win to likely being hammered this May is reminiscent of McTernan being so involved in Labour losing 40 MPs in Scotland in 2015.
February 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
Ah, McTernan. That's an interesting call. Indeed, how Labour have slipped from their GE2024 win to likely being hammered this May is reminiscent of McTernan being so involved in Labour losing 40 MPs in Scotland in 2015.
Desperation and delusion more like. This will just leave Sarwar looking impotent. Labour’s success in Scotland at GE2024 was nothing to do with him, and its fate in the Holyrood election this year is just as completely beyond his control. That’s unionism, baybeeee!
Sarwar has shown his ruthless streak. But will his swipe at Starmer mean anything to voters?
Sarwar has shown his ruthless streak. But will his swipe at Starmer mean anything to voters?
Scottish Labour leader is gambling that by declaring his loyalty to Scotland, the electorate will rally behind him
www.theguardian.com
February 9, 2026 at 5:26 PM
Desperation and delusion more like. This will just leave Sarwar looking impotent. Labour’s success in Scotland at GE2024 was nothing to do with him, and its fate in the Holyrood election this year is just as completely beyond his control. That’s unionism, baybeeee!
Kinda, but yes indirectly - would be a mistake to absolve Labour of agency in this. For me personally I was there before GE2024, cos of the surrender brexitism. Which yeah, similar dynamic innit. If Labour won't take a stand when a stand is needed, then they are not the answer
February 9, 2026 at 9:53 AM
Kinda, but yes indirectly - would be a mistake to absolve Labour of agency in this. For me personally I was there before GE2024, cos of the surrender brexitism. Which yeah, similar dynamic innit. If Labour won't take a stand when a stand is needed, then they are not the answer
McSweeny was no great political strategist, Labour only won the GE2024 because the tories were so hated. Please don't over egg his abilities.
#R4Today
#R4Today
February 9, 2026 at 6:41 AM
McSweeny was no great political strategist, Labour only won the GE2024 because the tories were so hated. Please don't over egg his abilities.
#R4Today
#R4Today
They’ve lost over half their voters, and they’re scattering in all directions.
Current voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters in Scotland:
Labour 48%
Reform 17%
SNP 15%
LD 7%
Greens 5%
Conservatives 5%
others 3%
(YG, 8-14 January)
Current voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters in Scotland:
Labour 48%
Reform 17%
SNP 15%
LD 7%
Greens 5%
Conservatives 5%
others 3%
(YG, 8-14 January)
February 9, 2026 at 2:32 AM
They’ve lost over half their voters, and they’re scattering in all directions.
Current voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters in Scotland:
Labour 48%
Reform 17%
SNP 15%
LD 7%
Greens 5%
Conservatives 5%
others 3%
(YG, 8-14 January)
Current voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters in Scotland:
Labour 48%
Reform 17%
SNP 15%
LD 7%
Greens 5%
Conservatives 5%
others 3%
(YG, 8-14 January)
The country was so desperate to kick the Tories out, Kevin the Gerbil would've won a landslide.
Some of us post-GE2024 were bemoaning that Labour should've won by more and wiped the Tories out completely.
Some of us post-GE2024 were bemoaning that Labour should've won by more and wiped the Tories out completely.
February 8, 2026 at 8:19 PM
The country was so desperate to kick the Tories out, Kevin the Gerbil would've won a landslide.
Some of us post-GE2024 were bemoaning that Labour should've won by more and wiped the Tories out completely.
Some of us post-GE2024 were bemoaning that Labour should've won by more and wiped the Tories out completely.
Figures. Every possibility that they fielded non-existent candidates at GE2024 bylines.scot/politics/ref...
A shameless grab of Short Money
A shameless grab of Short Money
February 8, 2026 at 1:14 PM
Figures. Every possibility that they fielded non-existent candidates at GE2024 bylines.scot/politics/ref...
A shameless grab of Short Money
A shameless grab of Short Money
🗳️ How young women would vote in #GE2029:
🟢 Grn: 44% (+21)
🔴 Lab: 21% (-21)
🟠 Lib: 19% (+3)
🔵 Con: 8% (+2)
➡️ Ref: 5% (-1)
Via @YouGov, 14 Dec - 9 Jan
(+/- vs GE2024)
🟢 Grn: 44% (+21)
🔴 Lab: 21% (-21)
🟠 Lib: 19% (+3)
🔵 Con: 8% (+2)
➡️ Ref: 5% (-1)
Via @YouGov, 14 Dec - 9 Jan
(+/- vs GE2024)
February 8, 2026 at 10:44 AM
🗳️ How young women would vote in #GE2029:
🟢 Grn: 44% (+21)
🔴 Lab: 21% (-21)
🟠 Lib: 19% (+3)
🔵 Con: 8% (+2)
➡️ Ref: 5% (-1)
Via @YouGov, 14 Dec - 9 Jan
(+/- vs GE2024)
🟢 Grn: 44% (+21)
🔴 Lab: 21% (-21)
🟠 Lib: 19% (+3)
🔵 Con: 8% (+2)
➡️ Ref: 5% (-1)
Via @YouGov, 14 Dec - 9 Jan
(+/- vs GE2024)
🗳️ How young men would vote in #GE2029:
🟢 Grn: 30% (+18)
🔴 Lab: 21% (-19)
🟠 Lib: 17% (+1)
🔵 Con: 12% (+2)
➡️ Ref: 12% (=)
Via @YouGov, 14 Dec - 9 Jan (+/- vs GE2024)
🟢 Grn: 30% (+18)
🔴 Lab: 21% (-19)
🟠 Lib: 17% (+1)
🔵 Con: 12% (+2)
➡️ Ref: 12% (=)
Via @YouGov, 14 Dec - 9 Jan (+/- vs GE2024)
February 8, 2026 at 10:43 AM
🗳️ How young men would vote in #GE2029:
🟢 Grn: 30% (+18)
🔴 Lab: 21% (-19)
🟠 Lib: 17% (+1)
🔵 Con: 12% (+2)
➡️ Ref: 12% (=)
Via @YouGov, 14 Dec - 9 Jan (+/- vs GE2024)
🟢 Grn: 30% (+18)
🔴 Lab: 21% (-19)
🟠 Lib: 17% (+1)
🔵 Con: 12% (+2)
➡️ Ref: 12% (=)
Via @YouGov, 14 Dec - 9 Jan (+/- vs GE2024)
🗳️ MRP | Gorton and Denton:
➡️ Ref: 33% (+19)
🟢 Grn: 24% (+10)
🔴 Lab: 20% (-31)
🔵 Con: 10% (+2)
🟠 Lib: 5% (+1)
Via @ElectCalculus / @FindoutnowUK, 1-8 Dec
(+/- vs GE2024)
➡️ Ref: 33% (+19)
🟢 Grn: 24% (+10)
🔴 Lab: 20% (-31)
🔵 Con: 10% (+2)
🟠 Lib: 5% (+1)
Via @ElectCalculus / @FindoutnowUK, 1-8 Dec
(+/- vs GE2024)
February 7, 2026 at 12:56 PM
🗳️ MRP | Gorton and Denton:
➡️ Ref: 33% (+19)
🟢 Grn: 24% (+10)
🔴 Lab: 20% (-31)
🔵 Con: 10% (+2)
🟠 Lib: 5% (+1)
Via @ElectCalculus / @FindoutnowUK, 1-8 Dec
(+/- vs GE2024)
➡️ Ref: 33% (+19)
🟢 Grn: 24% (+10)
🔴 Lab: 20% (-31)
🔵 Con: 10% (+2)
🟠 Lib: 5% (+1)
Via @ElectCalculus / @FindoutnowUK, 1-8 Dec
(+/- vs GE2024)
At the risk of looking foolish in 3 wks time, I think this gives Labour at least a chance of holding the seat, *if* they can maintain their position as the party with the best chance of beating Reform. Worth remembering the Greens were a poor third in GE2024 so they have a lot of ground to make up.
February 7, 2026 at 10:39 AM
At the risk of looking foolish in 3 wks time, I think this gives Labour at least a chance of holding the seat, *if* they can maintain their position as the party with the best chance of beating Reform. Worth remembering the Greens were a poor third in GE2024 so they have a lot of ground to make up.
My Seat Model:
SNP: 30 (+21)
LAB: 12 (-25)
LDM: 6 (=)
RFM: 5 (+5)
CON: 4 (-1)
Changes w/ GE2024.
SNP: 30 (+21)
LAB: 12 (-25)
LDM: 6 (=)
RFM: 5 (+5)
CON: 4 (-1)
Changes w/ GE2024.
February 7, 2026 at 12:17 AM
My Seat Model:
SNP: 30 (+21)
LAB: 12 (-25)
LDM: 6 (=)
RFM: 5 (+5)
CON: 4 (-1)
Changes w/ GE2024.
SNP: 30 (+21)
LAB: 12 (-25)
LDM: 6 (=)
RFM: 5 (+5)
CON: 4 (-1)
Changes w/ GE2024.
The selected candidate for the by-election stood in GE2024 and was narrowly defeated by the Tories in a very safe Tory seat. Why on earth we would pick someone who is not even an approved parliamentary candidate and force a by-election at huge expense to the tax payer is arrogance beyond belief.
February 5, 2026 at 3:34 PM
The selected candidate for the by-election stood in GE2024 and was narrowly defeated by the Tories in a very safe Tory seat. Why on earth we would pick someone who is not even an approved parliamentary candidate and force a by-election at huge expense to the tax payer is arrogance beyond belief.
Labour's lack of boldness, imagination and foresight is failing. The tiptoe-with-a-Ming-vase strategy worked Ok up to GE2024 but has hamstrung Labour in Government. Starmer going might help (I didn't think this at all until recently) indeed might be a necessary condition but it isn't sufficient.
February 4, 2026 at 2:58 PM
Labour's lack of boldness, imagination and foresight is failing. The tiptoe-with-a-Ming-vase strategy worked Ok up to GE2024 but has hamstrung Labour in Government. Starmer going might help (I didn't think this at all until recently) indeed might be a necessary condition but it isn't sufficient.
Labour have lost 35% of their voters to progressive pro-European parties, and just 13% to far-right pro-Trump parties.
So why is Starmer aping Reform?
Voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters (YG; 1-2 Feb):
Lab 50%
Grn* 20%
LD* 11%
Ref 9%
Con 4%
SNP* 2%
PC* 2%
oth 1%
Loss to pro-EU* = 35%
So why is Starmer aping Reform?
Voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters (YG; 1-2 Feb):
Lab 50%
Grn* 20%
LD* 11%
Ref 9%
Con 4%
SNP* 2%
PC* 2%
oth 1%
Loss to pro-EU* = 35%
February 3, 2026 at 9:34 PM
Labour have lost 35% of their voters to progressive pro-European parties, and just 13% to far-right pro-Trump parties.
So why is Starmer aping Reform?
Voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters (YG; 1-2 Feb):
Lab 50%
Grn* 20%
LD* 11%
Ref 9%
Con 4%
SNP* 2%
PC* 2%
oth 1%
Loss to pro-EU* = 35%
So why is Starmer aping Reform?
Voting intention of GE2024 Labour voters (YG; 1-2 Feb):
Lab 50%
Grn* 20%
LD* 11%
Ref 9%
Con 4%
SNP* 2%
PC* 2%
oth 1%
Loss to pro-EU* = 35%