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leftiestats.bsky.social
Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
@leftiestats.bsky.social
www.statsforlefties.com

Stats and election analysis from a progressive, Marxist perspective. Run by Eleanora Folan (she/her). All opinions my own. Trans woman 🏳️‍⚧️
Pinned
Israel is a violently racist nation packed with bloodthirsty child killers, and by allying with them Labour is directly complicit in the mass murder of tens of thousands of innocents.

This is simply a fact. Free Palestine.
🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 13pts

➡️ REF – 33% (+3)
🔴 LAB – 20% (-)
🔵 CON – 17% (-1)
🟠 LD – 12% (-)
🟢 GRN – 11% (-1)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 5-7 Nov (+/- vs 22-24 Oct)
November 9, 2025 at 4:28 PM
🖊️ ARTICLE | Reform rides high - but why?

Three years ago, Reform were polling 1%. Today they seem poised for a landslide GE win. How did this happen? And how did Labour fumble an easy layup so badly? Find out in my latest piece: www.statsforlefties.com/2025/11/07/poll-roundup-october
Reform Rides High
Eleanora explains how Reform rocketed to the top of the polls.
statsforlefties.wordpress.com
November 7, 2025 at 7:53 PM
🚨 POLL | Reform lead, Greens 2nd

➡️ REF – 33% (+1)
🟢 GRN – 18% (+1)
🔵 CON – 16% (-)
🔴 LAB – 15% (-1)
🟠 LD – 11% (-1)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 5-6 Nov (+/- vs 29 Oct)
November 6, 2025 at 5:38 PM
🚨 NEW | Labour falls to 3rd place

➡️ REF – 31% (-2)
🔵 CON – 19% (+1)
🔴 LAB – 18% (-3)
🟠 LD – 13% (+1)
🟢 GRN – 12% (+1)

Via @Moreincommon_, 31 Oct-3 Nov (+/- vs 27 Oct)
November 5, 2025 at 10:07 AM
🚨 NOWCAST | Reform to win majority

➡️ REF – 359 seats (+354)
🟠 LD – 83 seats (+11)
🔴 LAB – 71 seats (-339)
🔵 CON – 31 seats (-90)
🟡 SNP – 45 seats (+36)
🟢 GRN – 19 seats (+15)

This uses my NEW seat projection method.
November 4, 2025 at 5:53 PM
🚨 BREAKING | Greens rocket to **2nd place**

➡️ REF – 32% (-)
🟢 GRN – 17% (+2)
🔴 LAB – 16% (-)
🔵 CON – 16% (-1)
🟠 LD – 12% (-)

Via @findoutnowuk, 29 Oct (+/- vs 22 Oct)
October 30, 2025 at 5:03 PM
New York City polling averages:

🔵 Mamdani (D) - 48%
⚪️ Cuomo (I) - 32%
🔴 Sliwa (R) - 17%

Based on polls conducted in October 2025
October 29, 2025 at 2:48 PM
🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 12pts

➡️ REF – 33% (+2)
🔴 LAB – 21% (-1)
🔵 CON – 18% (-1)
🟠 LD – 12% (-1)
🟢 GRN – 11% (+1)

Via @moreincommon_, 24-27 Oct (+/- vs 17-20 Oct)
October 29, 2025 at 10:11 AM
🚨 NEW | Greens at 16%, 1pt shy of Labour

➡️ REF – 27% (+1)
🔴 LAB – 17% (-3)
🔵 CON – 17% (-)
🟢 GRN – 16% (+1)
🟠 LD – 15% (-)

Via @YouGov, 26-27 Oct (+/- vs 19-20 Oct)
October 28, 2025 at 9:40 AM
🚨 BREAKING | Greens surge to **17%**

➡️ REF – 28% (+1)
🔴 LAB – 18% (-4)
🔵 CON – 18% (-1)
🟢 GRN – 17% (+4)
🟠 LD – 11% (+1)

Via @LordAPolls, 16-20 Oct (+/- vs 11-15 Sep)
October 27, 2025 at 10:00 AM
🚨 NEW | Poll points to SNP Holyrood MAJORITY

🟡 SNP – 66 seats (+2)
➡️ REF – 16 seats (+16)
🟢 GRN – 15 seats (+7)
🔴 LAB – 14 seats (-8)
🟠 LD – 9 seats (+5)
🔵 CON – 9 seats (-22)

My estimate based on @FindoutnowUK poll, 14 Oct
October 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
🚨 NEW | Left-winger Catherine Connolly WINS election for President of Ireland* in a landslide.

🔴 Connolly (IND) – 63.4%
🔵 Humphreys (FG) – 29.5%
🟢 Gavin (FF) – 7.1%

*Note: President of Ireland is the head of state but is NOT the head of government like in US/France etc.
October 25, 2025 at 7:45 PM
🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 15pts

➡️ REF – 32% (-)
🔵 CON – 17% (-)
🔴 LAB – 16% (+1)
🟢 GRN – 15% (-)
🟠 LD – 12% (-)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 22 Oct (+/- vs 15 Oct)
October 25, 2025 at 3:53 PM
🚨 NEW | Plaid Cymru GAIN Caerphilly

🟢 PLAID – 47% (+19)
➡️ REF – 36% (+34)
🔴 LAB – 11% (-35)
🔵 CON – 2% (-15)
🟢 GRN – 2% (+2)
🟠 LD – 2% (-1)

+/- vs 2021 Senedd election
October 24, 2025 at 9:02 AM
🚨 BREAKING | 9 in 10 transgender people distrust Labour on the issue of trans rights, reveals new poll.

✅ Trust – 9%
❌ Distrust – 91%

Via @YouGov / @GoodLawProject, 23 Jul-11 Aug
October 23, 2025 at 4:21 PM
🟢 Senedd poll | Reform lead by 7pts

➡️ REF – 30% (+5)
🔴 LAB – 23% (-4)
🟢 PLAID – 22% (+1)
🔵 CON – 11% (-2)
🟢 GRN – 9% (+3)
🟠 LD – 4% (-)

Via @BeaufortLtd, 22 Sep-12 Oct (+/- vs 3 Jul)
October 21, 2025 at 2:13 PM
🚨 NEW | Greens hit 15% with YouGov

➡️ REF – 26% (-1)
🔴 LAB – 20% (-)
🔵 CON – 17% (-)
🟠 LD – 15% (-1)
🟢 GRN – 15% (+2)

Via @YouGov, 19-20 Oct (+/- vs 13-14 Oct)
October 21, 2025 at 1:20 PM
On the day Zack Polanski announced his leadership campaign, the Green Party had 60,000 members.

They now have 128,000 - an increase of 113%.

He doubled the membership in just 5 months.
October 19, 2025 at 5:51 PM
🚨 MRP | Greens to win Manchester Rusholme

🟢 GRN – 28% (+5)
🔴 LAB – 25% (-27)
➡️ REF – 17% (+11)
🟣 YRP – 15% (new)
🔵 CON – 5% (-1)
🟠 LD – 3% (new)

Via @FindoutnowUK / @ElectCalculus, 10-18 Sep
October 19, 2025 at 12:23 PM
🚨 POLL | Britons SUPPORT banning Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from attending next month's Aston Villa match.

✅ Support – 42%
❌ Oppose – 28%

Via @YouGov, 17 October
October 18, 2025 at 12:12 PM
🚨 BREAKING | Greens TIED with Labour

➡️ REF – 32% (-)
🔵 CON – 17% (-)
🟢 GRN – 15% (-)
🔴 LAB – 15% (-2)
🟠 LD – 12% (-)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Oct (+/- vs 8 Oct)
October 16, 2025 at 5:35 PM
🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 10pts

➡️ REF – 32% (-2)
🔴 LAB – 22% (+1)
🔵 CON – 18% (+2)
🟠 LD – 11% (-1)
🟢 GRN – 10% (-)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 8-10 Oct (+/- vs 1-3 Oct)
October 11, 2025 at 7:26 PM
🚨 BREAKING | Trans activist group BASH BACK have smashed up the Brighton Centre, which will play host to anti-trans hate group FiLiA today.

BASH BACK wrote in a statement: "These bigots have our blood on their hands", adding FiLiA should "expect retaliation" for transphobia.
BREAKING: BASH BACK TARGET FiLiA ANTI-TRANS CONFERENCE

The conference, whose alumni include J.K. Rowling, this year hosts hate groups LGBAlliance and Transgender Trend, along with the director of Scottish Lesbians, one of the groups responsible for April's segregationist Supreme Court ruling.
October 10, 2025 at 8:10 AM
🚨 NOWCAST | Reform to win majority of 108

➡️ REF – 379 seats (+374)
🟠 LD – 83 seats (+11)
🔴 LAB – 76 seats (-335)
🟡 SNP – 46 seats (+37)
🔵 CON – 21 seats (-100)
🟢 GRN – 5 seats (+1)

+/- vs GE2024
October 9, 2025 at 8:35 PM
🚨 NEW | Greens surge to 15% (2pts behind Lab)

➡️ REF – 32% (-3)
🔴 LAB – 17% (-2)
🔵 CON – 17% (+3)
🟢 GRN – 15% (+4)
🟠 LD – 12% (-)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 8 Oct (+/- vs 1 Oct)
October 9, 2025 at 12:59 PM