Christabel Cooper
@christabelcoops.bsky.social
Director of Research at Labour Together. Interested in politics and data. Interested in how people think about politics and data.
I think Trump is miscalculating over Venezuela because his mentality revolves around the division between the strong and the weak, and the assumption that the weak always submit to the strong. America has demonstrated its strength so the Venezuelan regime should submit and let the US run the place.
January 4, 2026 at 12:15 PM
I think Trump is miscalculating over Venezuela because his mentality revolves around the division between the strong and the weak, and the assumption that the weak always submit to the strong. America has demonstrated its strength so the Venezuelan regime should submit and let the US run the place.
Reposted by Christabel Cooper
NEW
When should social media posts have legal consequences?
Comparing and contrasting the cases of Lucy Connolly and Alaa Abd El-Fattah
By me, at @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/soc...
When should social media posts have legal consequences?
Comparing and contrasting the cases of Lucy Connolly and Alaa Abd El-Fattah
By me, at @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/soc...
December 31, 2025 at 1:32 PM
NEW
When should social media posts have legal consequences?
Comparing and contrasting the cases of Lucy Connolly and Alaa Abd El-Fattah
By me, at @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/soc...
When should social media posts have legal consequences?
Comparing and contrasting the cases of Lucy Connolly and Alaa Abd El-Fattah
By me, at @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/soc...
Parts of the left were rightly attacked for only acknowledging some forms of racism and ignoring others.
Astonishing to see the alacrity with which the hard right has imitated this behaviour - plus the lack of critical comment this hypocrisy receives from the "moderate" right.
Astonishing to see the alacrity with which the hard right has imitated this behaviour - plus the lack of critical comment this hypocrisy receives from the "moderate" right.
December 30, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Parts of the left were rightly attacked for only acknowledging some forms of racism and ignoring others.
Astonishing to see the alacrity with which the hard right has imitated this behaviour - plus the lack of critical comment this hypocrisy receives from the "moderate" right.
Astonishing to see the alacrity with which the hard right has imitated this behaviour - plus the lack of critical comment this hypocrisy receives from the "moderate" right.
Labour does so badly in this poll mainly because, as the tables show, they lose 29% of their 2024 vote to the Lib Dems and Greens.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 27% (+12)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-17)
LDM: 15% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+6)
Via @veriangroup.com, 12-15 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2024.
RFM: 27% (+12)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-17)
LDM: 15% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+6)
Via @veriangroup.com, 12-15 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2024.
December 20, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Labour does so badly in this poll mainly because, as the tables show, they lose 29% of their 2024 vote to the Lib Dems and Greens.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
The commentary says "People switching from Labour are heavily motivated by tactical considerations with 30% saying this is the primary reason for their switch" yet the new voting system doesn't need tactical votes to keep out Reform. If Lab can communicate this, they might get a few votes back.
Huge new poll puts Plaid ahead of Reform with Labour and the Conservatives on just 10% each. willhaywardwales.substack.com/p/bombshell-...
Bombshell polling for Wales
If this is correct we are seeing a seismic shift
willhaywardwales.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 9:20 AM
The commentary says "People switching from Labour are heavily motivated by tactical considerations with 30% saying this is the primary reason for their switch" yet the new voting system doesn't need tactical votes to keep out Reform. If Lab can communicate this, they might get a few votes back.
Reposted by Christabel Cooper
Bus usage has been increasing across the North – but one of the biggest increases has been seen in Greater Manchester.
Is this a result of @andyburnham.bsky.social taking buses back into public control?
And are there other reasons for optimism?
Short 🧵
1/4
Is this a result of @andyburnham.bsky.social taking buses back into public control?
And are there other reasons for optimism?
Short 🧵
1/4
December 11, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Bus usage has been increasing across the North – but one of the biggest increases has been seen in Greater Manchester.
Is this a result of @andyburnham.bsky.social taking buses back into public control?
And are there other reasons for optimism?
Short 🧵
1/4
Is this a result of @andyburnham.bsky.social taking buses back into public control?
And are there other reasons for optimism?
Short 🧵
1/4
Completely agree. For me, private school changed my life because I came from a poor family, the government paid my fees and state schools in London at the time were poor. But it will add much less value to a kid from a wealthy family who could get them into what are now, very good state schools.
Starting to unrionically think private schools are good for social mobility in that most of them have less of a value add than fees + ROI over the period would.
My free advice to this couple? Instead of paying £47k a year in school fees and scraping by, stick 15k a year in each kid's bank account so that they each have around £100k at age 18 to spend on a house, business or uni. You then have £17k/year leftover to spend on luxuries. Better life all round
December 8, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Completely agree. For me, private school changed my life because I came from a poor family, the government paid my fees and state schools in London at the time were poor. But it will add much less value to a kid from a wealthy family who could get them into what are now, very good state schools.
Partly the problem is "party people already suspect might be racist is led by someone suspected of racism" is less of a story than "party which tells everyone else not to be racist doesn't deal with racism in its own ranks". Left wing parties are inevitably going to be held to a higher standard.
The right wing press will not cover allegations about Farage's anti-Semitism in the way they covered Corbyn's because they were never interested in the actual racism. It was all about politics. But broadcasters have obligations under impartiality rules. They have no excuses.
November 26, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Partly the problem is "party people already suspect might be racist is led by someone suspected of racism" is less of a story than "party which tells everyone else not to be racist doesn't deal with racism in its own ranks". Left wing parties are inevitably going to be held to a higher standard.
I think the reason Trump is so bad at peace making is he can't understand why people fight wars - because he can't comprehend why people are willing to die for a cause greater than themselves. He doesn't get why an (apparently) weaker party (eg Ukraine) won't just concede (eg give up the Donbas).
A US framework to end war in Ukraine would leave it more vulnerable to Russian aggression, if it restricts Kyiv's army, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned today.
EU rules out restrictions on Ukraine’s army in rebuke to Trump plan
Allowing Russia to change borders by force or letting Moscow veto Kyiv’s future membership in the EU are red lines, Brussels warns.
www.politico.eu
November 23, 2025 at 4:25 PM
I think the reason Trump is so bad at peace making is he can't understand why people fight wars - because he can't comprehend why people are willing to die for a cause greater than themselves. He doesn't get why an (apparently) weaker party (eg Ukraine) won't just concede (eg give up the Donbas).
Reposted by Christabel Cooper
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
Reposted by Christabel Cooper
This statement not acceptable and I suspect not sustainable. Large majority of public support principle of asylum, support letting people stay permanently. Majority for that among Labour and other progressive parties’ voters is overwhelming. The Reform voters this is aimed at will never vote Labour
"The era of permanent protection is over"
Is this Labour government really saying it was wrong in principle to let these refugees of the last 75 years to stay, settle and become British - and they believe that should NEVER happen again in principle or practice?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiuR...
Is this Labour government really saying it was wrong in principle to let these refugees of the last 75 years to stay, settle and become British - and they believe that should NEVER happen again in principle or practice?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiuR...
Refugees from 7 decades gather to commemorate 70 years of refugee in protection in the UK
YouTube video by Refugee Council
www.youtube.com
November 15, 2025 at 12:49 PM
This statement not acceptable and I suspect not sustainable. Large majority of public support principle of asylum, support letting people stay permanently. Majority for that among Labour and other progressive parties’ voters is overwhelming. The Reform voters this is aimed at will never vote Labour
There is little public understanding about what local authorities spend their money on (ie principally adult social care). Labour Together's polling finds people think it takes up 13% of council spending, in fact it's 39%. And they overestimate admin costs.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
Council spending and the Jay delusion
Exclusive polling by Labour Together reveals the public have no idea how councils spend money
www.newstatesman.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:48 PM
There is little public understanding about what local authorities spend their money on (ie principally adult social care). Labour Together's polling finds people think it takes up 13% of council spending, in fact it's 39%. And they overestimate admin costs.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
Further thought on Caerphilly: it's a grim result for Labour because it has been replaced as the progressive party most likely to beat Reform in Wales. But the *scale* of the collapse of Labour's vote is a much bigger problem for Reform, because it shows the level of tactical voting against them.
October 24, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Further thought on Caerphilly: it's a grim result for Labour because it has been replaced as the progressive party most likely to beat Reform in Wales. But the *scale* of the collapse of Labour's vote is a much bigger problem for Reform, because it shows the level of tactical voting against them.
Particularly notable that Reform was beaten in a high turnout election. At May's locals they seem to have benefitted from turning out people who did not vote in 2024 - looks like we're now seeing a similar turnout among more progressive voters, motivated to beat them.
Scale of Plaid win in Caerphilly is significant, not least because of what it says about the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform. Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly.
October 24, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Particularly notable that Reform was beaten in a high turnout election. At May's locals they seem to have benefitted from turning out people who did not vote in 2024 - looks like we're now seeing a similar turnout among more progressive voters, motivated to beat them.
Enjoyed doing this podcast with @davehillonlondon.bsky.social. I made the point that Labour can't afford to lose its support in London. Right now 14% of the seats it won in 2024 are in the capital. But in the latest @yougov.co.uk MRP this rises to over a third of the 144 seats Labour keeps.
New True London podcast with guest @christabelcoops.bsky.social from @labourtogether.bsky.social. I asked her a large question: Is #Labour in big trouble in #London and, if so, does it care? www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFDz.... #truelondon @stephenkb.bsky.social @pickardje.bsky.social
True London: Does Labour care about London? With Christabel Cooper
YouTube video by Dave Hill On London
www.youtube.com
October 21, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Enjoyed doing this podcast with @davehillonlondon.bsky.social. I made the point that Labour can't afford to lose its support in London. Right now 14% of the seats it won in 2024 are in the capital. But in the latest @yougov.co.uk MRP this rises to over a third of the 144 seats Labour keeps.
I accept that even the Tories can't out-Reform Reform on immigration, but is it a totally crazy pitch for them to say to Con/Ref considerers "sure, we aren't as hard line on immigration as Reform, but we are pretty tough, and importantly we are not completely batshit on the the economy."
October 5, 2025 at 7:40 PM
I accept that even the Tories can't out-Reform Reform on immigration, but is it a totally crazy pitch for them to say to Con/Ref considerers "sure, we aren't as hard line on immigration as Reform, but we are pretty tough, and importantly we are not completely batshit on the the economy."
Interesting that Reform, which is currently 10+ points ahead in the polls, has accused Starmer of "scholastic terrorism" apparently without being worried that it is labelling the Labour/Reform considerers it needs to attract as supporters of terrorism.
Crying racism only hurts Labour
Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked.
📊 @bwalker.uk
Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked.
📊 @bwalker.uk
Crying racism only hurts Labour
Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked.
www.newstatesman.com
October 2, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Interesting that Reform, which is currently 10+ points ahead in the polls, has accused Starmer of "scholastic terrorism" apparently without being worried that it is labelling the Labour/Reform considerers it needs to attract as supporters of terrorism.
Thoughts on the potential impact of a Your Party/Green pact versus the parties standing separately. Standing independently hurts Labour the most, but overwhelmingly the beneficiary is likely to be Reform. OTOH a pact helps Your Party in a handful of seats. Neither scenario really helps the Greens.
August 20, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Thoughts on the potential impact of a Your Party/Green pact versus the parties standing separately. Standing independently hurts Labour the most, but overwhelmingly the beneficiary is likely to be Reform. OTOH a pact helps Your Party in a handful of seats. Neither scenario really helps the Greens.
The problem with the Ukraine-Russia negotiations is that Trump completely fails to grasp that the aims of the two sides are totally incompatible, and he needs to decide which side he actually wants to win.
Ukraine wants to be a sovereign, thriving state. Russia ideally wants to subjugate Ukraine.
Ukraine wants to be a sovereign, thriving state. Russia ideally wants to subjugate Ukraine.
August 20, 2025 at 6:23 AM
The problem with the Ukraine-Russia negotiations is that Trump completely fails to grasp that the aims of the two sides are totally incompatible, and he needs to decide which side he actually wants to win.
Ukraine wants to be a sovereign, thriving state. Russia ideally wants to subjugate Ukraine.
Ukraine wants to be a sovereign, thriving state. Russia ideally wants to subjugate Ukraine.
It turns out that the vast majority (around 80%) of the public don't know which parties are (currently) likely to be the top challengers for their constituency, which could make effective tactical voting verrrry difficult, as I note here: labourlist.org/2025/08/tact...
'Tactical voting helped Labour to win, but it can't rely on it for victory in 2029' - LabourList
Political parties should aim to earn positive votes that reflect genuine support for their values and policies, and build a real mandate to govern and deliver lasting change.
labourlist.org
August 5, 2025 at 7:59 AM
It turns out that the vast majority (around 80%) of the public don't know which parties are (currently) likely to be the top challengers for their constituency, which could make effective tactical voting verrrry difficult, as I note here: labourlist.org/2025/08/tact...
I'd really recommend actually reading Ian's substack before passing any comment. It's thoughtful, offers some excellent advice and is generally an antidote to the kind of crap peddled to young men from the charlatans and the radical right.
OK so feeling slightly apprehensive about this, which I suppose is kind of the point. This is an attempt at a progressive view on masculinity and on men getting laid. God help me. iandunt.substack.com/p/how-to-be-...
How to be a man
The right story narrative about male attractiveness is grounded in Social Darwinism and free market economics. Can progressives tell a better story?
iandunt.substack.com
August 2, 2025 at 8:21 AM
I'd really recommend actually reading Ian's substack before passing any comment. It's thoughtful, offers some excellent advice and is generally an antidote to the kind of crap peddled to young men from the charlatans and the radical right.
Am quoted in @labourlist.bsky.social on the Return of Stevenage Woman, making the point that the biggest group of voters which Labour is currently losing is not to Reform, but to "Don't Know". labourlist.org/2025/07/stev...
Asylum and bills: How Labour quietly lost Stevenage Woman - and won her back - LabourList
Tom Belger reported from Stevenage
labourlist.org
July 31, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Am quoted in @labourlist.bsky.social on the Return of Stevenage Woman, making the point that the biggest group of voters which Labour is currently losing is not to Reform, but to "Don't Know". labourlist.org/2025/07/stev...
Wrote this on the big problem that the hard right have with London - if ethnic diversity and high levels of migration really are the major causes of decline in the UK, then why is the region with the greatest diversity and largest number of migrants, doing so well?
Great piece for On London by the brilliant @christabelcoops.bsky.social. If fewer "White British" means national decline, how come the nation's capital is content with diversity & the UK's economic powerhouse? www.onlondon.co.uk/christabel-c... @philipstephens.bsky.social
If fewer 'White British' means decline, why is London successful?
Using the capital to paint apocalyptic visions conveniently ignores its contentment with diversity and its economic vitality
www.onlondon.co.uk
June 25, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Wrote this on the big problem that the hard right have with London - if ethnic diversity and high levels of migration really are the major causes of decline in the UK, then why is the region with the greatest diversity and largest number of migrants, doing so well?
Reform's policies are designed for maximum political appeal but are economically bonkers. This *should* hurt them badly in an election campaign, so long as we still have some semblance of normal politics - unlike, say, in the US where Trump's destructive economic agenda was simply ignored.
Reform UK is proposing a "Britannia card" that would let wealthy foreigners pay a £250k fee to move to the UK, and live here exempt from all tax on their foreign assets
What they don't say: it would cost the UK £34bn
Report here, and thread below: buff.ly/gpe2Dpf
What they don't say: it would cost the UK £34bn
Report here, and thread below: buff.ly/gpe2Dpf
June 23, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Reform's policies are designed for maximum political appeal but are economically bonkers. This *should* hurt them badly in an election campaign, so long as we still have some semblance of normal politics - unlike, say, in the US where Trump's destructive economic agenda was simply ignored.
Reposted by Christabel Cooper
The rise of Nigel Farage could lead you to believe that a more abrasive way of doing politics is popular.
So, we wanted to test: Does the public want politicians to swear more?
Should politicians try to be more colourful, by using more colourful language?
The answer is ‘no’(-ish).
A thread 🧵:
So, we wanted to test: Does the public want politicians to swear more?
Should politicians try to be more colourful, by using more colourful language?
The answer is ‘no’(-ish).
A thread 🧵:
June 20, 2025 at 7:10 AM
The rise of Nigel Farage could lead you to believe that a more abrasive way of doing politics is popular.
So, we wanted to test: Does the public want politicians to swear more?
Should politicians try to be more colourful, by using more colourful language?
The answer is ‘no’(-ish).
A thread 🧵:
So, we wanted to test: Does the public want politicians to swear more?
Should politicians try to be more colourful, by using more colourful language?
The answer is ‘no’(-ish).
A thread 🧵: