UK unemployment rises, cuts priced
10h
UK unemployment rose to 5.2%, a near five-year high, as wage growth cooled and traders priced in a Bank of England interest-rate cut.
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Reposted by Ben H. Ansell
Had missed this Dallas Fed look at shifts in unauthorized employment. It suggests that the current breakeven rate for jobs growth is *negative* 10k. IOW today 40k monthly jobs is equivalent (roughly) to a 150k+ print in the late 2010s.
New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations
A sudden reversal in U.S. net unauthorized immigration has important implications for the demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth and local labor markets.
www.dallasfed.org
February 17, 2026 at 9:21 PM
Had missed this Dallas Fed look at shifts in unauthorized employment. It suggests that the current breakeven rate for jobs growth is *negative* 10k. IOW today 40k monthly jobs is equivalent (roughly) to a 150k+ print in the late 2010s.
Normally you'd expect growing sectors to have to increase pay to attract people. But sectors with the fastest pay growth have seen some of the biggest falls in payroll employment. Partly, I'd say, because employer costs (NMW & NICs) are rising faster than employers can rise prices or productivity.
February 17, 2026 at 5:30 PM
Normally you'd expect growing sectors to have to increase pay to attract people. But sectors with the fastest pay growth have seen some of the biggest falls in payroll employment. Partly, I'd say, because employer costs (NMW & NICs) are rising faster than employers can rise prices or productivity.
Reposted by Stephen Evans
📉🤯📉 Should we be panicking about the labour market? I have commandeered the L&W monthly briefing + our expert team to help me think this question through. 🤯📉🤯
You can read the whole thing here - but here are some headline thoughts...
learningandwork.org.uk/labour-marke...
You can read the whole thing here - but here are some headline thoughts...
learningandwork.org.uk/labour-marke...
Labour Market Briefing: February 2026 - Learning and Work Institute
Our analysis of the ONS labour market statistics, released on the morning of 17 February 2026.
learningandwork.org.uk
February 17, 2026 at 5:16 PM
📉🤯📉 Should we be panicking about the labour market? I have commandeered the L&W monthly briefing + our expert team to help me think this question through. 🤯📉🤯
You can read the whole thing here - but here are some headline thoughts...
learningandwork.org.uk/labour-marke...
You can read the whole thing here - but here are some headline thoughts...
learningandwork.org.uk/labour-marke...
'Turbocharging growth'
UK unemployment hits post-pandemic peak as wage growth cools - www.ft.com/content/241a... via @FT
UK unemployment hits post-pandemic peak as wage growth cools - www.ft.com/content/241a... via @FT
UK unemployment hits post-pandemic peak as wage growth cools
Youth joblessness surges to highest in over a decade
www.ft.com
February 17, 2026 at 2:49 PM
'Turbocharging growth'
UK unemployment hits post-pandemic peak as wage growth cools - www.ft.com/content/241a... via @FT
UK unemployment hits post-pandemic peak as wage growth cools - www.ft.com/content/241a... via @FT
...
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
February 17, 2026 at 1:45 PM
...
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
Disappointing UK Jobs Data:
According to data released earlier today, Britain’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, above the 5.1% consensus forecast. The increase to 14% in the unemployment rate for 18-to-24-year-olds is of particular concern
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a...
1 of 2
According to data released earlier today, Britain’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, above the 5.1% consensus forecast. The increase to 14% in the unemployment rate for 18-to-24-year-olds is of particular concern
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a...
1 of 2
February 17, 2026 at 1:45 PM
Disappointing UK Jobs Data:
According to data released earlier today, Britain’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, above the 5.1% consensus forecast. The increase to 14% in the unemployment rate for 18-to-24-year-olds is of particular concern
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a...
1 of 2
According to data released earlier today, Britain’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, above the 5.1% consensus forecast. The increase to 14% in the unemployment rate for 18-to-24-year-olds is of particular concern
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a...
1 of 2
Reposted by Mel Bartley
From April, who gets more money in their pocket?
⬆️ Higher National Living Wage ⬆️ State Pension rise ⬆️ Universal Credit & benefits uprated ⬆️ Expanded childcare support
Biggest gains go to minimum wage workers, pensioners & low-income families.
⬆️ Higher National Living Wage ⬆️ State Pension rise ⬆️ Universal Credit & benefits uprated ⬆️ Expanded childcare support
Biggest gains go to minimum wage workers, pensioners & low-income families.
February 17, 2026 at 12:43 PM
From April, who gets more money in their pocket?
⬆️ Higher National Living Wage ⬆️ State Pension rise ⬆️ Universal Credit & benefits uprated ⬆️ Expanded childcare support
Biggest gains go to minimum wage workers, pensioners & low-income families.
⬆️ Higher National Living Wage ⬆️ State Pension rise ⬆️ Universal Credit & benefits uprated ⬆️ Expanded childcare support
Biggest gains go to minimum wage workers, pensioners & low-income families.
by Stephen Evans Reposted by Jonathan Portes
On pay, PAYE data (which is partial, e.g. doesn't include most self-employment) shows lower paid have generally had bigger pay rises than average or higher paid as minimum wage has risen over last decade. These are nominal data & overall growth slow so not claiming 'we've never had it so good'!
February 17, 2026 at 10:57 AM
On pay, PAYE data (which is partial, e.g. doesn't include most self-employment) shows lower paid have generally had bigger pay rises than average or higher paid as minimum wage has risen over last decade. These are nominal data & overall growth slow so not claiming 'we've never had it so good'!
Bonus chart. Here's the change in 3m average payroll employment. 3m average to limit the effect of latest data being more provisional. But this is not a good picture. Reminder: population rises over time so some running to stand still on jobs. Reminder 2: like all data, PAYE has its flaws.
February 17, 2026 at 10:37 AM
Bonus chart. Here's the change in 3m average payroll employment. 3m average to limit the effect of latest data being more provisional. But this is not a good picture. Reminder: population rises over time so some running to stand still on jobs. Reminder 2: like all data, PAYE has its flaws.
Youth unemployment stood at 14.7% in the EU/14.3% in the Eurozone in December 2025, including 13% in Greece.
Must be the first time size the Eurozone crisis that Greece has a lower youth unemployment than the UK - with Greece down from a peak at 58.9% (!) youth unemployment in 2013.
Must be the first time size the Eurozone crisis that Greece has a lower youth unemployment than the UK - with Greece down from a peak at 58.9% (!) youth unemployment in 2013.
The UK age 18-24 unemployment rate has been rising since 2022 and hit a concerning 14% in December 2025
Though it's worth bearing in mind that in 2011 the rate was more than 20%...
Though it's worth bearing in mind that in 2011 the rate was more than 20%...
February 17, 2026 at 9:36 AM
Youth unemployment stood at 14.7% in the EU/14.3% in the Eurozone in December 2025, including 13% in Greece.
Must be the first time size the Eurozone crisis that Greece has a lower youth unemployment than the UK - with Greece down from a peak at 58.9% (!) youth unemployment in 2013.
Must be the first time size the Eurozone crisis that Greece has a lower youth unemployment than the UK - with Greece down from a peak at 58.9% (!) youth unemployment in 2013.
Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
The UK age 18-24 unemployment rate has been rising since 2022 and hit a concerning 14% in December 2025
Though it's worth bearing in mind that in 2011 the rate was more than 20%...
Though it's worth bearing in mind that in 2011 the rate was more than 20%...
February 17, 2026 at 9:04 AM
The UK age 18-24 unemployment rate has been rising since 2022 and hit a concerning 14% in December 2025
Though it's worth bearing in mind that in 2011 the rate was more than 20%...
Though it's worth bearing in mind that in 2011 the rate was more than 20%...
by Jonathan Portes Reposted by Mel Bartley, Alison Phipps, Peter Campbell
Employment rates for non-EU born are now *above* those for the UK born.
Gap used be nearly 10 percentage points.
A tribute to the success of UK immigration/immigrants and labour market integration, especially in recent years.
Something government should celebrate..
Gap used be nearly 10 percentage points.
A tribute to the success of UK immigration/immigrants and labour market integration, especially in recent years.
Something government should celebrate..
February 17, 2026 at 8:26 AM
Employment rates for non-EU born are now *above* those for the UK born.
Gap used be nearly 10 percentage points.
A tribute to the success of UK immigration/immigrants and labour market integration, especially in recent years.
Something government should celebrate..
Gap used be nearly 10 percentage points.
A tribute to the success of UK immigration/immigrants and labour market integration, especially in recent years.
Something government should celebrate..