Mohamed A. El-Erian
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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm.bsky.social

Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more

Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more

Economics 67%
Business 13%

... November, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. That's roughly 14 percent more than the same 11 months of 2024, and the highest tally since 2010."
#economy @washingtonpost.com

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This excerpt from the Washington Post article, "Bankruptcies Soar as Companies Grapple With Inflation, Tariffs," is yet another example of the intensifying multifaceted divergence in the US economy:
"At least 717 companies filed for bankruptcy through ...

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... to the attention of millions. But lasting success comes from a business model that is difficult to replicate, and which keeps evolving in a fast-changing world."

#economy #markets #success @economist.com

From The Economist on "What Novo Nordisk, OpenAI and Pop Mart have in common--All three have suffered the curse of overnight success:"

"Bosses should take heed. A hit product can bring a company...

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More record highs in Asian trading for precious metals:
Per Bloomberg, “Spot silver rose 5.5% to $83.65 as of 7:23 a.m. in Singapore. Gold edged up 0.1% to $4,539.93 an ounce. Platinum added 0.6% and palladium was up 1.5%.”
#Investors #investing #markets #gold #platinum #silver

Hello.
Please find below the links to the final “Weekly Look” of the year.
It’s a relatively short one in light of the traditional seasonal lull in data releases and policy meetings.
I want to thank you deeply for your readership and engagement over the past year...

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The Global Economy and Markets: The Final "Weekly Look" of 2025
Thank you for joining me for the final "Weekly Look" of 2025. This edition is relatively brief, reflecting the traditional seasonal lull in data releases and policy meetings.
www.linkedin.com

… but also created additional challenges for actively-managed funds – all this as, on the other side, passive funds remained structurally bound to the index, unable to overweight the handful of mega-cap stocks that drove market gains.
#economy #markets #investing #investors

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According to Bloomberg, “around $1 trillion was pulled from active equity mutual funds over the year, marking an 11th year of net outflows, while passive equity exchange-traded funds got more than $600 billion.”
Two factors, disappointing performance and high fees, not only drove this migration…

Good morning.
On notable 2025 developments in European bond markets:
Per these FT charts, Italian risk spreads have returned to pre-debt crisis levels and...
There’s been a partial inversion in the traditional “core-periphery” dynamic, as French spreads now exceed those of both Italy and Spain.

Torsten Slok:
"With a steep yield curve, governments are issuing more short‑dated paper....
The consequence is that monetary and fiscal policy have become more tightly linked, because a lower maturity makes government interest expenses more sensitive to central bank rate decisions."
#economy

A sobering look from the FT at the UK: The “higher-for-longer” chart.
Not a leaderboard to top when growth and investment dynamics are already under pressure.
Moreover, the longer the economy faces such high borrowing costs, the greater the risk that they will stay elevated or climb even higher.

From the @WSJ: “Economic fortunes of low- and high-income Americans are diverging—same pattern happening with companies.”
#economy #inequality #divergence #dispersion

… and aside from Bitcoin and oil, it’s been a winning year for:
US stocks AND foreign stocks
Stocks AND bonds
Government bonds AND high yield bonds
Stocks AND gold
Gold AND other metals.
#economy #investing #investors #portfolio #gold #bitcoin #oil #stocks #bonds

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Just how good has this year been for investors?
In short, great as a rising tide lifted (almost) all boats.
Virtually every corner of a diversified portfolio is in the green, ignoring historical correlations.
Specifically,…

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From @cnbc.com: “A University of Michigan poll published in December shows that high prices remain a pain point for consumers. About 46% blame high prices for poor personal finances — among the highest shares since the series started in the late 1970s.”
#economy #inflation #affordability

Gold has been trading above $4,500 for the first time.
#economy #markets #gold #investing #investors

Having already weakened substantially in 2025, the dollar limps into the final week with the DXY index depreciating to below 98 again.
#economy #markets #dollar #currency

... activities, consumer debt requires different risk-modeling "muscles" while less amenable to their value

#economy #markets #privatecredit @financialtimes.com

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... lower overall systemic risk—acting as a diversified "shock absorber" for the financial system.
The Skeptical View: Private credit is expanding into riskier areas that sit outside their traditional expertise and where they lack a comparative advantage. Unlike their bespoke corporate...

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... including two opposing views that, interestingly are not mutually exclusive!
The Optimistic View: These firms, who invest overwhelmingly in advanced countries, are increasingly substituting for traditional banks. By moving this debt off bank balance sheets, they could potentially ...

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The private credit explosion continues:
According to the Financial Times, “private credit firms snapped up nearly 14 times as much consumer debt this year as in 2024, piling into riskier areas such as credit cards and buy now, pay later debt.”
This shift raises interesting questions, ...

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... it may well be related to the deeper structural shift we have talked about previously: the unsettling decoupling of GDP growth from employment.
For more, please see:
www.politico.com/newsletters/... )

#economy #growth @politico.com

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The ‘unsettling phenomenon’ hitting Trump’s economy
A growing economy is a good thing. Politically speaking, it may not mean much moving forward.
www.politico.com

...
With the current sentiment component falling to its lowest level since February 2021, consumer confidence came in below the consensus forecast—this after a notable upward revision for the prior month.
(I use the term "on the surface" for the soft/hard data disconnect because...

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The U.S. economic data releases continue with consumer confidence figures that illustrate, yet again, a striking disconnect: he sharp divergence between "soft" sentiment data and "hard" metrics of economic activity.
...

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...policy moves have found support across parts of both the political left and right.
An example is the latest White House announcement on defense contractors, urging that these firms pivot their capital deployment away from share buybacks and toward industrial capacity and R&D.
#geoeconomics

...policy moves have found surprising support across parts of both the political left and right.
An example is the latest White House announcement on defense contractors, urging that these firms pivot their capital deployment away from share buybacks and toward industrial capacity and R&D.
#economy

The Rise of Geo-Economics Continues:
Geo-economics—whereby a mix of geopolitics, national security, and domestic politics exerts a greater influence on economic outcomes than traditional economic and financial factors—has come to the fore in a major way this year.
In some cases, the associated...

While on US data, November industrial production beat the consensus forecast, as did capacity utilization.
November's IP was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level, the highest growth rate since June.
At 70%, capacity utilization was the highest since July.
#economy #markets