Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University.
Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more
Coming on the heels of yesterday’s higher-than-expected unemployment figures and softer wage data, today's numbers reinforce the likelihood that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.
#economy #inflation #uk
The headline annual rate cooled from 3.4% in December to 3.0% in January, the lowest since March 2025, while the core measure eased from 3.5% to 3.3%.
The decline in the inflation rate was quite broad-based as..
Thank you so much for having me on the show.
www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...
#economy #markets #AI @cnbc.com
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
According to data released earlier today, Britain’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, above the 5.1% consensus forecast. The increase to 14% in the unemployment rate for 18-to-24-year-olds is of particular concern
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a...
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This leaves technical considerations in the driver’s seat, even if the specifics remain elusive at this end.
Your thoughts. please?
#economy #markets #growth #inflation #bonds
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Standard valuation models also struggle to justify a 4% yield.
...
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After dipping to 4.01% earlier this morning, the yield on the 10-year US government bond is currently hovering around 4.03%—a level that seems disconnected from both fundamentals and valuations.
From a fundamental perspective, last week’s softer-than-expected ...
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www.ft.com/content/298a...
#economy @financialtimes.com
#businessschools #mba @financialtimes.com
Both are reminders that in a rapidly shifting economy, the most valuable thing you can learn is how to manage/communicate/influence/lead change and leverage new tech.
#AI #businessschools
Among the interesting results of the latest survey from the FT and ZHAW
(i) Human-centric competencies remain critical; and
(ii) While traditional Finance and Operations stay relatively flat...
My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory.
The decoupling of growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years:
www.ft.com/content/298a...
#economy
Forecasters had anticipated a sharp rebound following the tariff-driven contraction in Q3; instead, muted consumption and sluggish exports resulted in a meager 0.1% Q-o-Q...
Please find below the links to the weekly look at the global economy and markets.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly...
open.substack.com/pub/mohamede...
#economy #markets
The bond market reacted swiftly to the data, initially driving the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.08%—its lowest level so far this year.
#economy #inflation #markets
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The annual measures edged lower to 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively, with questions to the persistence of the decline...
That’s good news. Less good is, as other inflation data will show, the US economy is now in its sixth consecutive year of inflation running above the Federal Reserve's target.
...
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That’s the bad news. The silver lining so far? This persistent "inflation slippage" has not unanchored long-term inflation expectations.
#economy #markets #inflation @wsj.com
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What is virtually guaranteed is that these first 2026 inflation numbers will be part of a bigger set of data confirming...
Meanwhile, traders wasted no time picking a side. They reduced the probability of a Fed cut in June from roughly 70% to just under 50%.
#economy #employment
The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, supports those who believe the U.S. labor market remains solid. Yet, significant downward revisions…
#inflation #china
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It’s a reminder that China faces the opposite problem of the US.
While Friday’s data release in the…
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•There is an equally broad spectrum of opinions regarding the composition of this slowdown—specifically, the balance between supply-side constraints and cooling demand.
#economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #markets
The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings.
Two additional factors to note:
• There is an unusually wide gap in individual surveyed…
This December cooling of retail sales underscores the importance of AI-related industrial and service sectors as drivers of growth.
#economy #retailsales #markets #growth
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Reposted by Ben H. Ansell
An across-the-board miss for US retail sales as headline monthly growth stalls in December, falling short of the 0.4% consensus forecast.
The weakness is visible also in the components with monthly retail sales growth (ex-autos and gas) also at 0.0%, missing the ...
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