... is to weaker growth, higher borrowing rates, or adverse external shocks.
The smaller the headroom, the tighter the fiscal tightrope the UK is walking.
#UKBudget #FiscalPolicy #Economy #Headroom #UK #budget @financialtimes.com

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...stark by the one-month view:
The probability was over 90% at the end of October before collapsing and rebounding.
Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility.
So much for "forward policy guidance" fostering stability/predictability
#economy #markets #federalreserve

...
Current Struggles: The current conditions component sank to its lowest level since 2021.
Future Doubts: The forward-looking index slid back to its April 2025 low.
The culprit? The mix of lingering price worries and growing employment income insecurity
#economy #markets #growth #confidence
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... and collaboration;

Robust revenue diversification across Search, Cloud, and advertising platforms; and

Considerable investment in deep science and foundational research.

#economy #markets #ai #google #alphabet

... Deep vertical integration, spanning hardware and chips to the final application layer;

An innovation-driven culture rooted in engineering excellence, known for encouraging long-term, high-risk "moonshot" projects and empowering employees with autonomy for creative exploration...

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... other releases this morning (contracting ADP weekly job growth and well-behaved PPI) is driving US government yields lower (the 10-year is now trading at 4.01%).

#economy #USretaill #FederalReserve #AI #inflation #markets

... households, in particular, are facing significant headwinds.
The AI economic lifeline (massive spending related to infrastructure and technology, as well as the productivity promise) emerges as a disproportionate driver of GDP growth.
The combination of this retail sales data and ...

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... health of the labor market rise.
2. The Deeper Divergence: The decoupling of GDP growth from employment raises tricky economic, political, and social questions for the year ahead.
#economy #FederalReserve #inflation #LaborMarket #SFFed #inflation #jobs

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...as the central bank at the core of the global payments system.
It reflects shutdown-disrupted data, a dual-mandate squeeze, a lame-duck Chair, and the lack of a clear strategic framework from the world’s most powerful central bank, which has been overly data-dependent for a protracted period.

... between the two nations and position for a strategic peace? Or do they use this window to aggressively reduce their sensitivity to Chinese markets and suppliers?
#economy #markets #China #Tesla #EVs #GlobalEconomy #SupplyChain #USChina

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On the demand side, it highlights the complexities facing US companies in an overall Chinese sales environment that is not as robust as it was.
All this is to say that US companies face a stark strategic choice. Do they buy into the current tactical geopolitical peace ...

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