Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm.bsky.social
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University.
Per Torsten Slok, “a record-high share of total wealth in the household sector is owned by people that are more than 70 years old.”
This challenges the idea that the tech-driven boom of the past decade would have made such a diatributuon skew younger.
#economy #markets #wealth #inequality
This challenges the idea that the tech-driven boom of the past decade would have made such a diatributuon skew younger.
#economy #markets #wealth #inequality
December 7, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Per Torsten Slok, “a record-high share of total wealth in the household sector is owned by people that are more than 70 years old.”
This challenges the idea that the tech-driven boom of the past decade would have made such a diatributuon skew younger.
#economy #markets #wealth #inequality
This challenges the idea that the tech-driven boom of the past decade would have made such a diatributuon skew younger.
#economy #markets #wealth #inequality
Quite a few in economics, politics and international relations warn of unusual uncertainty and disruptive structural change. Yet market measures of volatility aren't reflecting this in any noticeable manner.
Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg,
“The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering…
Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg,
“The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering…
December 6, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Quite a few in economics, politics and international relations warn of unusual uncertainty and disruptive structural change. Yet market measures of volatility aren't reflecting this in any noticeable manner.
Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg,
“The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering…
Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg,
“The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering…
Despite a solid bond auction, Japanese government bond yields have continued to climb — reaching highs not seen in nearly 20 years.
While this rise has added some upward pressure on global yields, the spillover effects remain fairly well contained for now.
#economy #markets #japan #jgb.
While this rise has added some upward pressure on global yields, the spillover effects remain fairly well contained for now.
#economy #markets #japan #jgb.
December 4, 2025 at 5:47 PM
From John Authers’ daily note:
“Remarkably, and counter to decades of prior experience, the average inflation rate in emerging economies is now slightly lower than in the developed world, where price rises have started to accelerate again.”
#economy #markets #em #EmergingMarkets #inflation
“Remarkably, and counter to decades of prior experience, the average inflation rate in emerging economies is now slightly lower than in the developed world, where price rises have started to accelerate again.”
#economy #markets #em #EmergingMarkets #inflation
December 4, 2025 at 11:24 AM
From John Authers’ daily note:
“Remarkably, and counter to decades of prior experience, the average inflation rate in emerging economies is now slightly lower than in the developed world, where price rises have started to accelerate again.”
#economy #markets #em #EmergingMarkets #inflation
“Remarkably, and counter to decades of prior experience, the average inflation rate in emerging economies is now slightly lower than in the developed world, where price rises have started to accelerate again.”
#economy #markets #em #EmergingMarkets #inflation
Short-term market technicals have shifted from negative to neutral, with the combination of Bitcoins bouncing and stabilizing Japanese yields providing a sounder footing for risk assets.
Longer-term...
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Longer-term...
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December 2, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Short-term market technicals have shifted from negative to neutral, with the combination of Bitcoins bouncing and stabilizing Japanese yields providing a sounder footing for risk assets.
Longer-term...
...
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Longer-term...
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According to Bloomberg, and per the BIS study:
"The world’s largest hedge funds are accumulating “substantially higher” leverage in the bond market than smaller rivals at very low cost."
#economy #markets #hedgefunds #bis
"The world’s largest hedge funds are accumulating “substantially higher” leverage in the bond market than smaller rivals at very low cost."
#economy #markets #hedgefunds #bis
December 2, 2025 at 2:09 PM
According to Bloomberg, and per the BIS study:
"The world’s largest hedge funds are accumulating “substantially higher” leverage in the bond market than smaller rivals at very low cost."
#economy #markets #hedgefunds #bis
"The world’s largest hedge funds are accumulating “substantially higher” leverage in the bond market than smaller rivals at very low cost."
#economy #markets #hedgefunds #bis
While the implied market probability of a December Fed rate cut has climbed to 95%, confidence in follow-up reductions is far lower.
Per the Bloomberg charts below, markets assign a less than 30% probability to a subsequent cut in January—a view that extends to the following two meetings as well.
Per the Bloomberg charts below, markets assign a less than 30% probability to a subsequent cut in January—a view that extends to the following two meetings as well.
December 2, 2025 at 1:06 PM
While the implied market probability of a December Fed rate cut has climbed to 95%, confidence in follow-up reductions is far lower.
Per the Bloomberg charts below, markets assign a less than 30% probability to a subsequent cut in January—a view that extends to the following two meetings as well.
Per the Bloomberg charts below, markets assign a less than 30% probability to a subsequent cut in January—a view that extends to the following two meetings as well.
Thank you, Becky Quick and Joe Kernen, for the interesting conversation this morning on CNBC.
#economy #markets #AI #FederalReserve @cnbc.com
#economy #markets #AI #FederalReserve @cnbc.com
December 1, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Thank you, Becky Quick and Joe Kernen, for the interesting conversation this morning on CNBC.
#economy #markets #AI #FederalReserve @cnbc.com
#economy #markets #AI #FederalReserve @cnbc.com
Per Axios, “President Trump said Sunday he's decided who he'll nominate to be the next Federal Reserve chair.”
Both this issue and the December rate decision currently dominate Fed-related conversations.
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Both this issue and the December rate decision currently dominate Fed-related conversations.
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December 1, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Per Axios, “President Trump said Sunday he's decided who he'll nominate to be the next Federal Reserve chair.”
Both this issue and the December rate decision currently dominate Fed-related conversations.
...
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Both this issue and the December rate decision currently dominate Fed-related conversations.
...
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It was truly a privilege and an honor to be part of "GIC Insights 2025" in Singapore.
My huge thanks to all my friends at GIC for this and for the opportunity to serve on Advisory Board and Strategies Committee
#economy #gic #singapore #markets
My huge thanks to all my friends at GIC for this and for the opportunity to serve on Advisory Board and Strategies Committee
#economy #gic #singapore #markets
November 30, 2025 at 1:10 PM
It was truly a privilege and an honor to be part of "GIC Insights 2025" in Singapore.
My huge thanks to all my friends at GIC for this and for the opportunity to serve on Advisory Board and Strategies Committee
#economy #gic #singapore #markets
My huge thanks to all my friends at GIC for this and for the opportunity to serve on Advisory Board and Strategies Committee
#economy #gic #singapore #markets
A sobering chart from Martin Wolf (below).
The gap between UK borrowing costs and other advanced economies isn't just persisting—it’s widening: A stark reminder of the "UK premium" currently baked into markets.
This isn't just about debt service costs eating into the budget at ...
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The gap between UK borrowing costs and other advanced economies isn't just persisting—it’s widening: A stark reminder of the "UK premium" currently baked into markets.
This isn't just about debt service costs eating into the budget at ...
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November 27, 2025 at 5:12 PM
A sobering chart from Martin Wolf (below).
The gap between UK borrowing costs and other advanced economies isn't just persisting—it’s widening: A stark reminder of the "UK premium" currently baked into markets.
This isn't just about debt service costs eating into the budget at ...
1 of 2
The gap between UK borrowing costs and other advanced economies isn't just persisting—it’s widening: A stark reminder of the "UK premium" currently baked into markets.
This isn't just about debt service costs eating into the budget at ...
1 of 2
While on the UK budget, here are some summary charts from the Financial Times.
#economy #Markets #budget #UKBudget2025 @financialtimes.com
#economy #Markets #budget #UKBudget2025 @financialtimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 12:10 PM
While on the UK budget, here are some summary charts from the Financial Times.
#economy #Markets #budget #UKBudget2025 @financialtimes.com
#economy #Markets #budget #UKBudget2025 @financialtimes.com
FYI, the link to my take on the UK budget:
www.ft.com/content/de60...
@financialtimes.com #economy #markets #budget #ukbudget #ukbudget2025
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www.ft.com/content/de60...
@financialtimes.com #economy #markets #budget #ukbudget #ukbudget2025
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November 27, 2025 at 11:52 AM
FYI, the link to my take on the UK budget:
www.ft.com/content/de60...
@financialtimes.com #economy #markets #budget #ukbudget #ukbudget2025
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www.ft.com/content/de60...
@financialtimes.com #economy #markets #budget #ukbudget #ukbudget2025
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Building on my earlier FT analysis, the unusual run-up to the UK budget continues with the premature publication of the OBR's assessment of the proposed measures, as well as the overall economic context.
The immediate market reactions include higher government bond yields and a weaker currency.
The immediate market reactions include higher government bond yields and a weaker currency.
November 26, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Building on my earlier FT analysis, the unusual run-up to the UK budget continues with the premature publication of the OBR's assessment of the proposed measures, as well as the overall economic context.
The immediate market reactions include higher government bond yields and a weaker currency.
The immediate market reactions include higher government bond yields and a weaker currency.
Speaking of the UK budget, many will pay attention to the magnitude of the “headroom.” This gives a feel for how much room the UK has to forsake revenues or raise spending without breaking the fiscal rules and, also, how vulnerable the fiscal stance...
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November 26, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Speaking of the UK budget, many will pay attention to the magnitude of the “headroom.” This gives a feel for how much room the UK has to forsake revenues or raise spending without breaking the fiscal rules and, also, how vulnerable the fiscal stance...
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According to Bloomberg, “National Economic Council Director Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner for the next Fed chair.”
#FederalReserve #economy #markets
#FederalReserve #economy #markets
November 26, 2025 at 12:37 AM
According to Bloomberg, “National Economic Council Director Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner for the next Fed chair.”
#FederalReserve #economy #markets
#FederalReserve #economy #markets
...stark by the one-month view:
The probability was over 90% at the end of October before collapsing and rebounding.
Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility.
So much for "forward policy guidance" fostering stability/predictability
#economy #markets #federalreserve
The probability was over 90% at the end of October before collapsing and rebounding.
Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility.
So much for "forward policy guidance" fostering stability/predictability
#economy #markets #federalreserve
November 25, 2025 at 9:53 PM
...stark by the one-month view:
The probability was over 90% at the end of October before collapsing and rebounding.
Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility.
So much for "forward policy guidance" fostering stability/predictability
#economy #markets #federalreserve
The probability was over 90% at the end of October before collapsing and rebounding.
Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility.
So much for "forward policy guidance" fostering stability/predictability
#economy #markets #federalreserve
This four-day chart—yes, only four days—illustrates just how violently the market has repriced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10. The implied probability surged from the low 30s to over 90% just an hour ago, and currently sits at 87%
It's a remarkable move, made even more...
It's a remarkable move, made even more...
November 25, 2025 at 9:52 PM
This four-day chart—yes, only four days—illustrates just how violently the market has repriced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10. The implied probability surged from the low 30s to over 90% just an hour ago, and currently sits at 87%
It's a remarkable move, made even more...
It's a remarkable move, made even more...
H/T to Torsten Slok for this SF Fed chart illustrating demand-side influences overtaking supply-side factors as the primary driver of US inflation.
Why this matters:
1. The Fed: Inflation driven more by demand than supply factors argues against a rate cut just as worries mount about the ...
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Why this matters:
1. The Fed: Inflation driven more by demand than supply factors argues against a rate cut just as worries mount about the ...
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November 24, 2025 at 4:48 PM
H/T to Torsten Slok for this SF Fed chart illustrating demand-side influences overtaking supply-side factors as the primary driver of US inflation.
Why this matters:
1. The Fed: Inflation driven more by demand than supply factors argues against a rate cut just as worries mount about the ...
1 of 2
Why this matters:
1. The Fed: Inflation driven more by demand than supply factors argues against a rate cut just as worries mount about the ...
1 of 2
The "Gemini Effect" amplifies the outperformance:
This CNBC chart illustrates how Google/Alphabet (at another record high today) has outperformed the rest of the "Magnificent 7" tech cohort.
This outperformance is being reinforced by the widely praised reception of Gemini 3 (rolled out last week).
This CNBC chart illustrates how Google/Alphabet (at another record high today) has outperformed the rest of the "Magnificent 7" tech cohort.
This outperformance is being reinforced by the widely praised reception of Gemini 3 (rolled out last week).
November 24, 2025 at 4:20 PM
The "Gemini Effect" amplifies the outperformance:
This CNBC chart illustrates how Google/Alphabet (at another record high today) has outperformed the rest of the "Magnificent 7" tech cohort.
This outperformance is being reinforced by the widely praised reception of Gemini 3 (rolled out last week).
This CNBC chart illustrates how Google/Alphabet (at another record high today) has outperformed the rest of the "Magnificent 7" tech cohort.
This outperformance is being reinforced by the widely praised reception of Gemini 3 (rolled out last week).
...as the central bank at the core of the global payments system.
It reflects shutdown-disrupted data, a dual-mandate squeeze, a lame-duck Chair, and the lack of a clear strategic framework from the world’s most powerful central bank, which has been overly data-dependent for a protracted period.
It reflects shutdown-disrupted data, a dual-mandate squeeze, a lame-duck Chair, and the lack of a clear strategic framework from the world’s most powerful central bank, which has been overly data-dependent for a protracted period.
November 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
...as the central bank at the core of the global payments system.
It reflects shutdown-disrupted data, a dual-mandate squeeze, a lame-duck Chair, and the lack of a clear strategic framework from the world’s most powerful central bank, which has been overly data-dependent for a protracted period.
It reflects shutdown-disrupted data, a dual-mandate squeeze, a lame-duck Chair, and the lack of a clear strategic framework from the world’s most powerful central bank, which has been overly data-dependent for a protracted period.
This Tesla news from CNBC isn't just about the car company. It also illustrates notable evolutions in supply and demand dynamics:
On the supply side, it confirms the forceful emergence of China's EV industry, including its state-backed players.
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On the supply side, it confirms the forceful emergence of China's EV industry, including its state-backed players.
...
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November 24, 2025 at 1:53 PM
This Tesla news from CNBC isn't just about the car company. It also illustrates notable evolutions in supply and demand dynamics:
On the supply side, it confirms the forceful emergence of China's EV industry, including its state-backed players.
...
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On the supply side, it confirms the forceful emergence of China's EV industry, including its state-backed players.
...
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This IMF chart illustrates the ongoing secular decline in Europe’s growth and productivity, also underscoring the critical need to unlock the potential of policy, AI and other innovations for reinvigorating the region’s economic prospects.
#economy #eu #europe #growth #Productivity
#economy #eu #europe #growth #Productivity
November 22, 2025 at 12:10 PM
This IMF chart illustrates the ongoing secular decline in Europe’s growth and productivity, also underscoring the critical need to unlock the potential of policy, AI and other innovations for reinvigorating the region’s economic prospects.
#economy #eu #europe #growth #Productivity
#economy #eu #europe #growth #Productivity
