UK unemployment rises, cuts priced
7h
UK unemployment rose to 5.2%, a near five-year high, as wage growth cooled and traders priced in a Bank of England interest-rate cut.
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Disappointing UK Jobs Data:
According to data released earlier today, Britain’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, above the 5.1% consensus forecast. The increase to 14% in the unemployment rate for 18-to-24-year-olds is of particular concern
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a...
1 of 2
According to data released earlier today, Britain’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, above the 5.1% consensus forecast. The increase to 14% in the unemployment rate for 18-to-24-year-olds is of particular concern
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a...
1 of 2
February 17, 2026 at 1:45 PM
Disappointing UK Jobs Data:
According to data released earlier today, Britain’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, above the 5.1% consensus forecast. The increase to 14% in the unemployment rate for 18-to-24-year-olds is of particular concern
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a...
1 of 2
According to data released earlier today, Britain’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, above the 5.1% consensus forecast. The increase to 14% in the unemployment rate for 18-to-24-year-olds is of particular concern
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a...
1 of 2
by Jonathan Portes Reposted by Mel Bartley, Alison Phipps, Peter Campbell
Employment rates for non-EU born are now *above* those for the UK born.
Gap used be nearly 10 percentage points.
A tribute to the success of UK immigration/immigrants and labour market integration, especially in recent years.
Something government should celebrate..
Gap used be nearly 10 percentage points.
A tribute to the success of UK immigration/immigrants and labour market integration, especially in recent years.
Something government should celebrate..
February 17, 2026 at 8:26 AM
Employment rates for non-EU born are now *above* those for the UK born.
Gap used be nearly 10 percentage points.
A tribute to the success of UK immigration/immigrants and labour market integration, especially in recent years.
Something government should celebrate..
Gap used be nearly 10 percentage points.
A tribute to the success of UK immigration/immigrants and labour market integration, especially in recent years.
Something government should celebrate..
Posted earlier: My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory. The decoupling of US growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years:
www.ft.com/content/298a...
#economy @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/298a...
#economy @financialtimes.com
This time really could be different on jobs
Three catalysts are driving an intensifying divergence between a cooling US labour market and strong GDP growth
www.ft.com
February 16, 2026 at 11:16 PM
Posted earlier: My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory. The decoupling of US growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years:
www.ft.com/content/298a...
#economy @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/298a...
#economy @financialtimes.com
...
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
February 17, 2026 at 1:45 PM
...
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
Why are journalists describing the rise in unemployment as unexpected?
If you increase the cost of Labour relative to Capital investment you are encouraging unemployment to rise
This is part of the government's strategy and entirely predictable
If you increase the cost of Labour relative to Capital investment you are encouraging unemployment to rise
This is part of the government's strategy and entirely predictable
It seems that the increase in National Insurance rate was intended to encourage investment in capital (aka AI) rather than people
Now we see the consequent decline in jobs
Why would a *Labour* government do this?
Responding to the priorities of the tech oligarchs, not the needs of working people
Now we see the consequent decline in jobs
Why would a *Labour* government do this?
Responding to the priorities of the tech oligarchs, not the needs of working people
February 17, 2026 at 8:03 AM
Why are journalists describing the rise in unemployment as unexpected?
If you increase the cost of Labour relative to Capital investment you are encouraging unemployment to rise
This is part of the government's strategy and entirely predictable
If you increase the cost of Labour relative to Capital investment you are encouraging unemployment to rise
This is part of the government's strategy and entirely predictable
Reposted by Stacy D. VanDeveer
US had almost *no* job growth in 2025.
Hiring numbers were revised down by over a million jobs.
Largest annual revision in over 20 years.
www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...
Hiring numbers were revised down by over a million jobs.
Largest annual revision in over 20 years.
www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...
U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, but labor market growth stalled in 2025
The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that U.S. employers added 181,000 jobs last year, far fewer than the 1.46 million jobs that were added in 2024.
www.nbcnews.com
February 16, 2026 at 5:30 PM
US had almost *no* job growth in 2025.
Hiring numbers were revised down by over a million jobs.
Largest annual revision in over 20 years.
www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...
Hiring numbers were revised down by over a million jobs.
Largest annual revision in over 20 years.
www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...
Via the @financialreports.bsky.social
My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory.
The decoupling of growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years:
www.ft.com/content/298a...
#economy
My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory.
The decoupling of growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years:
www.ft.com/content/298a...
#economy
This time really could be different on jobs
Three catalysts are driving an intensifying divergence between a cooling US labour market and strong GDP growth
www.ft.com
February 16, 2026 at 12:25 PM
Via the @financialreports.bsky.social
My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory.
The decoupling of growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years:
www.ft.com/content/298a...
#economy
My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory.
The decoupling of growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years:
www.ft.com/content/298a...
#economy
It seems that the increase in National Insurance rate was intended to encourage investment in capital (aka AI) rather than people
Now we see the consequent decline in jobs
Why would a *Labour* government do this?
Responding to the priorities of the tech oligarchs, not the needs of working people
Now we see the consequent decline in jobs
Why would a *Labour* government do this?
Responding to the priorities of the tech oligarchs, not the needs of working people
February 17, 2026 at 7:13 AM
It seems that the increase in National Insurance rate was intended to encourage investment in capital (aka AI) rather than people
Now we see the consequent decline in jobs
Why would a *Labour* government do this?
Responding to the priorities of the tech oligarchs, not the needs of working people
Now we see the consequent decline in jobs
Why would a *Labour* government do this?
Responding to the priorities of the tech oligarchs, not the needs of working people
Real wages and productivity haven't diverged. The proof of this is that the two variables, real wages and productivity, have moved together when measured properly. Other things happening does not negate that fact.
February 16, 2026 at 5:09 PM
Real wages and productivity haven't diverged. The proof of this is that the two variables, real wages and productivity, have moved together when measured properly. Other things happening does not negate that fact.
Reposted by Ben H. Ansell
Had missed this Dallas Fed look at shifts in unauthorized employment. It suggests that the current breakeven rate for jobs growth is *negative* 10k. IOW today 40k monthly jobs is equivalent (roughly) to a 150k+ print in the late 2010s.
New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations
A sudden reversal in U.S. net unauthorized immigration has important implications for the demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth and local labor markets.
www.dallasfed.org
February 17, 2026 at 9:21 PM
Had missed this Dallas Fed look at shifts in unauthorized employment. It suggests that the current breakeven rate for jobs growth is *negative* 10k. IOW today 40k monthly jobs is equivalent (roughly) to a 150k+ print in the late 2010s.
Reposted by Aaron Sojourner
“.. With the vacancy-to-unemployed ratio now below 1.0, bargaining power is again shifting back to capital and away from workers. .. This is a marked contrast with an overall economy that is running hot.”
@elerianm.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/298a...
@elerianm.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/298a...
February 16, 2026 at 1:45 PM
“.. With the vacancy-to-unemployed ratio now below 1.0, bargaining power is again shifting back to capital and away from workers. .. This is a marked contrast with an overall economy that is running hot.”
@elerianm.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/298a...
@elerianm.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/298a...
The alternative PAYE data does show a gradual downtrend, but it's hardly "jobs apocalypse"
February 17, 2026 at 8:05 AM
The alternative PAYE data does show a gradual downtrend, but it's hardly "jobs apocalypse"