Ben Chu
@benchu.bsky.social
Policy and analysis correspondent, BBC Verify.
https://www.benchu.co.uk/
Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025
https://linktr.ee/exileeconomics
https://www.benchu.co.uk/
Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025
https://linktr.ee/exileeconomics
Pinned
Ben Chu
@benchu.bsky.social
· Oct 20
The Tax Conundrum - Episode 1: The Problem - BBC Sounds
What's wrong with our tax system?
www.bbc.co.uk
Why do we seem to find it so hard to have a rational conversation about how MUCH we pay in tax and HOW we pay it?
I'm exploring that in a new 3 part series for BBC Radio 4.
Episode 1 of The Tax Conundrum available here 🎧👇...
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
I'm exploring that in a new 3 part series for BBC Radio 4.
Episode 1 of The Tax Conundrum available here 🎧👇...
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
How much will the watering down of the government's farming inheritance tax changes cost?
When it unveiled the original reforms in the 2024 Budget, HMT estimated they would raise £230m in 2026/27, rising to £520m in 2029/30...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672b98...
When it unveiled the original reforms in the 2024 Budget, HMT estimated they would raise £230m in 2026/27, rising to £520m in 2029/30...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672b98...
December 23, 2025 at 3:02 PM
How much will the watering down of the government's farming inheritance tax changes cost?
When it unveiled the original reforms in the 2024 Budget, HMT estimated they would raise £230m in 2026/27, rising to £520m in 2029/30...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672b98...
When it unveiled the original reforms in the 2024 Budget, HMT estimated they would raise £230m in 2026/27, rising to £520m in 2029/30...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672b98...
Reposted by Ben Chu
A short seven years (!) after I started writing the code, it’s great to see this paper published.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
December 18, 2025 at 9:52 AM
A short seven years (!) after I started writing the code, it’s great to see this paper published.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
Thanks to Simon Hunt of City AM for choosing Exile Economics as one of his top 6 business books of 2025... 👇
www.cityam.com/six-of-the-t...
www.cityam.com/six-of-the-t...
December 15, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Thanks to Simon Hunt of City AM for choosing Exile Economics as one of his top 6 business books of 2025... 👇
www.cityam.com/six-of-the-t...
www.cityam.com/six-of-the-t...
Many thanks @davidheniguk.bsky.social! This was a great event & introduced me to a lot of valuable new contacts
Starting a year in review with what I read - workwise the two best books were Apple in China showing how the US contributed to the growth of an economic giant, and Exile Economics by @benchu.bsky.social telling the story of inter-dependencies - I was happy to discuss this with him for @borderlex.net
December 15, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Many thanks @davidheniguk.bsky.social! This was a great event & introduced me to a lot of valuable new contacts
Reposted by Ben Chu
BBC Radio 4 / @benchu.bsky.social recently did a good series (3 episodes, called the Tax Conundrum) exploring, inter alia, precisely this disjuncture between how the UK's tax system actually works (income taxation has gotten much more progressive) and how most Brits think it works
I understand what marginal tax rates and how they work, but (with apologies for naive point) the fact that someone on a median income only pays this much tax - given the general state of the discourse on this - is surprising to me
December 12, 2025 at 2:20 PM
BBC Radio 4 / @benchu.bsky.social recently did a good series (3 episodes, called the Tax Conundrum) exploring, inter alia, precisely this disjuncture between how the UK's tax system actually works (income taxation has gotten much more progressive) and how most Brits think it works
Reposted by Ben Chu
Did Rachel Reeves and the Government “mislead” people about the state of the public finances and the need for tax rises before the Budget?
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
December 1, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Did Rachel Reeves and the Government “mislead” people about the state of the public finances and the need for tax rises before the Budget?
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
People who heard the 8.10am Radio 4 Today interview with Dr Tom Dolphin of the BMA this morning might be interested in this explainer:
📺 👇
What's happened to resident doctors' pay since 2008?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...
📺 👇
What's happened to resident doctors' pay since 2008?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...
What’s happened to resident doctors’ pay since 2008?
Resident doctors in England say pay is at the core of their dispute with the government, but what’s actually happened to their pay over the past 17 years?
www.bbc.co.uk
December 2, 2025 at 9:31 PM
People who heard the 8.10am Radio 4 Today interview with Dr Tom Dolphin of the BMA this morning might be interested in this explainer:
📺 👇
What's happened to resident doctors' pay since 2008?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...
📺 👇
What's happened to resident doctors' pay since 2008?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...
Very sad news.
Andreas Whittam Smith was a very great man - and in my encounters with him while I worked for many years at The Independent an exceptionally nice one too.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home...
Andreas Whittam Smith was a very great man - and in my encounters with him while I worked for many years at The Independent an exceptionally nice one too.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home...
Andreas Whittam Smith death: Co-founder of The Independent, dies aged 88
The editor and media entrepreneur changed the landscape of British journalism over his decades-long career
www.independent.co.uk
December 1, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Very sad news.
Andreas Whittam Smith was a very great man - and in my encounters with him while I worked for many years at The Independent an exceptionally nice one too.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home...
Andreas Whittam Smith was a very great man - and in my encounters with him while I worked for many years at The Independent an exceptionally nice one too.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home...
In short, the answer to whether the government can fairly be said to have misled or not on the state of the public finances depends alot on which element of its communications we're talking about 👇
Did Rachel Reeves and the Government “mislead” people about the state of the public finances and the need for tax rises before the Budget?
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
December 1, 2025 at 1:08 PM
In short, the answer to whether the government can fairly be said to have misled or not on the state of the public finances depends alot on which element of its communications we're talking about 👇
Did Rachel Reeves and the Government “mislead” people about the state of the public finances and the need for tax rises before the Budget?
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
December 1, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Did Rachel Reeves and the Government “mislead” people about the state of the public finances and the need for tax rises before the Budget?
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
Thanks to @grattaninstitute.bsky.social for choosing Exile Economics as a recommendation for the Australian PM's summer reading list!
1/ Announcing Grattan’s Prime Minister’s Summer Reading List for 2025! 🎉
Here are the six books we think the PM and all Australians should read over summer. #auspol buff.ly/UbafIPQ
Here are the six books we think the PM and all Australians should read over summer. #auspol buff.ly/UbafIPQ
December 1, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Thanks to @grattaninstitute.bsky.social for choosing Exile Economics as a recommendation for the Australian PM's summer reading list!
Reposted by Ben Chu
2/ @benchu.bsky.social Exile Economics paints a picture of a world retreating from the global economic system. But cutting ourselves off from these trade and migration flows isn’t just economically damaging – in many cases it’s simply not possible.
December 1, 2025 at 4:01 AM
2/ @benchu.bsky.social Exile Economics paints a picture of a world retreating from the global economic system. But cutting ourselves off from these trade and migration flows isn’t just economically damaging – in many cases it’s simply not possible.
Reposted by Ben Chu
1/ Announcing Grattan’s Prime Minister’s Summer Reading List for 2025! 🎉
Here are the six books we think the PM and all Australians should read over summer. #auspol buff.ly/UbafIPQ
Here are the six books we think the PM and all Australians should read over summer. #auspol buff.ly/UbafIPQ
December 1, 2025 at 4:01 AM
1/ Announcing Grattan’s Prime Minister’s Summer Reading List for 2025! 🎉
Here are the six books we think the PM and all Australians should read over summer. #auspol buff.ly/UbafIPQ
Here are the six books we think the PM and all Australians should read over summer. #auspol buff.ly/UbafIPQ
OBR: "We have not changed our assessment that Brexit will reduce the level of UK productivity by around 4 per cent after 15 years."
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
obr.uk
November 26, 2025 at 3:26 PM
OBR: "We have not changed our assessment that Brexit will reduce the level of UK productivity by around 4 per cent after 15 years."
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
The latest tax increases are very backloaded in the forecast - according to the OBR projected borrowing is up in every year to 2028-29 relative to the March 2025 Spring statement - only falls in 2029-30
November 26, 2025 at 1:18 PM
The latest tax increases are very backloaded in the forecast - according to the OBR projected borrowing is up in every year to 2028-29 relative to the March 2025 Spring statement - only falls in 2029-30
Little movement (so far) in UK government market borrowing costs in response to the Budget - couple of basis points +/- across the yield curve.
Looks like markets expected new headroom vs fiscal rules of around £22bn... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Looks like markets expected new headroom vs fiscal rules of around £22bn... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
November 26, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Little movement (so far) in UK government market borrowing costs in response to the Budget - couple of basis points +/- across the yield curve.
Looks like markets expected new headroom vs fiscal rules of around £22bn... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Looks like markets expected new headroom vs fiscal rules of around £22bn... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Key takeaways on Chancellor's policy choices from the accidentally published OBR doc.
- Now £22bn of headroom in 2029-30 (up from £9.9bn)
- £26bn in tax rises in 2029-30 (including extension income tax threshold freeze, NICS on salary sacrifice pensions)
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
- Now £22bn of headroom in 2029-30 (up from £9.9bn)
- £26bn in tax rises in 2029-30 (including extension income tax threshold freeze, NICS on salary sacrifice pensions)
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
obr.uk
November 26, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Key takeaways on Chancellor's policy choices from the accidentally published OBR doc.
- Now £22bn of headroom in 2029-30 (up from £9.9bn)
- £26bn in tax rises in 2029-30 (including extension income tax threshold freeze, NICS on salary sacrifice pensions)
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
- Now £22bn of headroom in 2029-30 (up from £9.9bn)
- £26bn in tax rises in 2029-30 (including extension income tax threshold freeze, NICS on salary sacrifice pensions)
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
My Budget preview available on BBC iPlayer here.
- Has the Chancellor already hit "working people" with tax rises?
- Is Brexit really to blame for the expected increase in borrowing the forecasts?
- Is it in the interests of young people to put up taxes?
📺👇
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
- Has the Chancellor already hit "working people" with tax rises?
- Is Brexit really to blame for the expected increase in borrowing the forecasts?
- Is it in the interests of young people to put up taxes?
📺👇
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
How Will the Budget Affect Young People?
Ahead of the Budget this week, BBC Verify’s Ben Chu has been to Leeds, where the Chancellor’s constituency is, and has been looking at the figures.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 24, 2025 at 10:10 AM
My Budget preview available on BBC iPlayer here.
- Has the Chancellor already hit "working people" with tax rises?
- Is Brexit really to blame for the expected increase in borrowing the forecasts?
- Is it in the interests of young people to put up taxes?
📺👇
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
- Has the Chancellor already hit "working people" with tax rises?
- Is Brexit really to blame for the expected increase in borrowing the forecasts?
- Is it in the interests of young people to put up taxes?
📺👇
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
The national debt, benefits, housing, taxation...
How should we think about this week's Budget choices in the context of fairness between the UK's generations?
My analysis for BBC online ✍️👇
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
How should we think about this week's Budget choices in the context of fairness between the UK's generations?
My analysis for BBC online ✍️👇
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Could the Budget help turn Generation Z into generation debt?
There's growing concern that current tax and spending policies help pensioners, but are unfair on younger generations.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 23, 2025 at 11:29 AM
The national debt, benefits, housing, taxation...
How should we think about this week's Budget choices in the context of fairness between the UK's generations?
My analysis for BBC online ✍️👇
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
How should we think about this week's Budget choices in the context of fairness between the UK's generations?
My analysis for BBC online ✍️👇
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Many thanks to @vickyspratt.bsky.social for this lovely recommendation of my series "The Tax Conundrum" on BBC Sounds...
inews.co.uk/opinion/22k-...
inews.co.uk/opinion/22k-...
November 19, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Many thanks to @vickyspratt.bsky.social for this lovely recommendation of my series "The Tax Conundrum" on BBC Sounds...
inews.co.uk/opinion/22k-...
inews.co.uk/opinion/22k-...
"We have become the destination of choice in Europe" according to the Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
Data from Eurostat & the Home Office shows the UK had the fifth largest number of claims of the EU/UK area in 2025, at 108,000... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691ae0...
Data from Eurostat & the Home Office shows the UK had the fifth largest number of claims of the EU/UK area in 2025, at 108,000... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691ae0...
November 17, 2025 at 6:19 PM
"We have become the destination of choice in Europe" according to the Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
Data from Eurostat & the Home Office shows the UK had the fifth largest number of claims of the EU/UK area in 2025, at 108,000... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691ae0...
Data from Eurostat & the Home Office shows the UK had the fifth largest number of claims of the EU/UK area in 2025, at 108,000... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691ae0...
If you're wondering HOW and WHY the government has got itself in such a mess on tax ahead of this latest Budget - take a listen to my new 3 part series on the UK's Tax Conundrum on Sounds...
🎧👇
🎧👇
Why do we seem to find it so hard to have a rational conversation about how MUCH we pay in tax and HOW we pay it?
I'm exploring that in a new 3 part series for BBC Radio 4.
Episode 1 of The Tax Conundrum available here 🎧👇...
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
I'm exploring that in a new 3 part series for BBC Radio 4.
Episode 1 of The Tax Conundrum available here 🎧👇...
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
The Tax Conundrum - Episode 1: The Problem - BBC Sounds
What's wrong with our tax system?
www.bbc.co.uk
November 14, 2025 at 3:18 PM
If you're wondering HOW and WHY the government has got itself in such a mess on tax ahead of this latest Budget - take a listen to my new 3 part series on the UK's Tax Conundrum on Sounds...
🎧👇
🎧👇
UK 10 year Gilt yield is now up around 8 basis points today (0.08%) & the 30 yield yield is up 10 basis points (0.1%).
Both down a bit from the market open - but still a material increase in UK gov borrowing costs in response to the income tax rise flip-flop...
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Both down a bit from the market open - but still a material increase in UK gov borrowing costs in response to the income tax rise flip-flop...
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
November 14, 2025 at 10:35 AM
UK 10 year Gilt yield is now up around 8 basis points today (0.08%) & the 30 yield yield is up 10 basis points (0.1%).
Both down a bit from the market open - but still a material increase in UK gov borrowing costs in response to the income tax rise flip-flop...
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Both down a bit from the market open - but still a material increase in UK gov borrowing costs in response to the income tax rise flip-flop...
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Very useful chart from Berenberg - the blue bars are the tariffs that could be removed if the US Supreme Court strikes down Trump's emergency tariffs (though the White House could well respond by using other tariff legislation to try to re-impose them)
November 14, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Very useful chart from Berenberg - the blue bars are the tariffs that could be removed if the US Supreme Court strikes down Trump's emergency tariffs (though the White House could well respond by using other tariff legislation to try to re-impose them)