Ben Chu
@benchu.bsky.social
Policy and analysis correspondent, BBC Verify.
https://www.benchu.co.uk/
Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025
https://linktr.ee/exileeconomics
https://www.benchu.co.uk/
Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025
https://linktr.ee/exileeconomics
....The data also shows a significant increse in the margins of non-supermarket retailers on fuel sales
November 5, 2025 at 10:26 AM
....The data also shows a significant increse in the margins of non-supermarket retailers on fuel sales
UK supermarkets have doubled their profit margins on fuel sales since 2017, according to data from the Competition and Markets Authority...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
November 5, 2025 at 10:25 AM
UK supermarkets have doubled their profit margins on fuel sales since 2017, according to data from the Competition and Markets Authority...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
...And here's the latest Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts for both.
Both measures essentially flat as a share of GDP over the Parliament.
obr.uk/data/
Both measures essentially flat as a share of GDP over the Parliament.
obr.uk/data/
November 4, 2025 at 6:32 PM
...And here's the latest Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts for both.
Both measures essentially flat as a share of GDP over the Parliament.
obr.uk/data/
Both measures essentially flat as a share of GDP over the Parliament.
obr.uk/data/
Interesting that Rachel Reeves in her economy speech referenced public sector net debt when she said it's at £2.9 trillion/95% of GDP - her fiscal rules are targetting a different (lower) measure of the national debt called "public sector net financial liabilities".... www.gov.uk/government/s...
November 4, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Interesting that Rachel Reeves in her economy speech referenced public sector net debt when she said it's at £2.9 trillion/95% of GDP - her fiscal rules are targetting a different (lower) measure of the national debt called "public sector net financial liabilities".... www.gov.uk/government/s...
...Not especially.
They would take China's purchase volumes back to where they were before this year's trade war and China's moratorium on buying US soybeans...
They would take China's purchase volumes back to where they were before this year's trade war and China's moratorium on buying US soybeans...
October 30, 2025 at 4:56 PM
...Not especially.
They would take China's purchase volumes back to where they were before this year's trade war and China's moratorium on buying US soybeans...
They would take China's purchase volumes back to where they were before this year's trade war and China's moratorium on buying US soybeans...
Waiting to go on Newsnight to talk about what the Trump/Xi summit means for global trade!
@bbcnewsnight.bsky.social
BBC2 /iPlayer now
@bbcnewsnight.bsky.social
BBC2 /iPlayer now
October 29, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Waiting to go on Newsnight to talk about what the Trump/Xi summit means for global trade!
@bbcnewsnight.bsky.social
BBC2 /iPlayer now
@bbcnewsnight.bsky.social
BBC2 /iPlayer now
About to speak to Paddy O’Connell on Broadcasting House on BBC Radio 4 about how much asylum seekers receive in UK state support - and how that compares to other EU countries’ systems
#BroadcastingHouse
#BroadcastingHouse
October 26, 2025 at 9:09 AM
About to speak to Paddy O’Connell on Broadcasting House on BBC Radio 4 about how much asylum seekers receive in UK state support - and how that compares to other EU countries’ systems
#BroadcastingHouse
#BroadcastingHouse
Pleased to see "The Tax Conundrum" is radio pick of the day in the i paper and the Daily Mail 👇
October 20, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Pleased to see "The Tax Conundrum" is radio pick of the day in the i paper and the Daily Mail 👇
The Tax Conundrum is Pick of the Day in the Mail on Sunday and the Radio Times describes and the Radio Times says “a lid is lifted and all is illuminated”...
October 19, 2025 at 8:21 AM
The Tax Conundrum is Pick of the Day in the Mail on Sunday and the Radio Times describes and the Radio Times says “a lid is lifted and all is illuminated”...
Since 2010 government policy has reduced the income of working age people by an average of £1,400 per year relative to where they would otherwise be.
At the same time the triple lock has pushed up the incomes of older people by £900 a year...9/11
At the same time the triple lock has pushed up the incomes of older people by £900 a year...9/11
September 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Since 2010 government policy has reduced the income of working age people by an average of £1,400 per year relative to where they would otherwise be.
At the same time the triple lock has pushed up the incomes of older people by £900 a year...9/11
At the same time the triple lock has pushed up the incomes of older people by £900 a year...9/11
It’s true that some countries have a more generous system - the state pension currently replaces around 54% of average UK earnings, compared to the developed country average of 61%...6/11
September 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
It’s true that some countries have a more generous system - the state pension currently replaces around 54% of average UK earnings, compared to the developed country average of 61%...6/11
And the poverty rate of pensioners is now lower than of working age people - with working age non-parents shown in green, at 17% in 2024, and working age parents shown in blue, at 25%...4/11
September 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
And the poverty rate of pensioners is now lower than of working age people - with working age non-parents shown in green, at 17% in 2024, and working age parents shown in blue, at 25%...4/11
But, since then, the poverty rate of the group has fallen quite dramatically to 16% in 2024, reflecting the retirement of many relatively well-off baby boomers...3/11
September 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
But, since then, the poverty rate of the group has fallen quite dramatically to 16% in 2024, reflecting the retirement of many relatively well-off baby boomers...3/11
In the early 1990s the poverty rate of pensioners - defined as the share of the group living on less than 60% of average incomes after housing costs - was around 40%...2/11
September 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
In the early 1990s the poverty rate of pensioners - defined as the share of the group living on less than 60% of average incomes after housing costs - was around 40%...2/11
By contrast asylum claims from people who arrived by small boats are still rising - and at a higher level - 43,600 in the year to june...
September 2, 2025 at 11:30 AM
By contrast asylum claims from people who arrived by small boats are still rising - and at a higher level - 43,600 in the year to june...
The Home Secretary is focusing today on students who go on to claim asylum.
Home Office data shows the numbers of asylum seekers who were previously issued with a student visa are up in recent years, to 14,800 in the year to June, though some signs of a peak...
Home Office data shows the numbers of asylum seekers who were previously issued with a student visa are up in recent years, to 14,800 in the year to June, though some signs of a peak...
September 2, 2025 at 11:30 AM
The Home Secretary is focusing today on students who go on to claim asylum.
Home Office data shows the numbers of asylum seekers who were previously issued with a student visa are up in recent years, to 14,800 in the year to June, though some signs of a peak...
Home Office data shows the numbers of asylum seekers who were previously issued with a student visa are up in recent years, to 14,800 in the year to June, though some signs of a peak...
Back in the Newsnight studio with Paddy O’Connell to talk about immigration - perceptions and fact
Join us at 1030pm on BBC2 and iPlayer
Join us at 1030pm on BBC2 and iPlayer
August 28, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Back in the Newsnight studio with Paddy O’Connell to talk about immigration - perceptions and fact
Join us at 1030pm on BBC2 and iPlayer
Join us at 1030pm on BBC2 and iPlayer
Also the theory that the 2024-25 increase is driven by more bags being used in internet sales seems a little hard to square with the fact online retail sales have been rising steadily as % of overall sales since 2007 www.ons.gov.uk/businessindu...
August 25, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Also the theory that the 2024-25 increase is driven by more bags being used in internet sales seems a little hard to square with the fact online retail sales have been rising steadily as % of overall sales since 2007 www.ons.gov.uk/businessindu...
Some context for the headlines about rising plastic bag use in England - yes there was a rise in the most recent data for 2024-25, but it's still below 2021-22 levels and *far* fewer bags are sold than a decade ago...
August 25, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Some context for the headlines about rising plastic bag use in England - yes there was a rise in the most recent data for 2024-25, but it's still below 2021-22 levels and *far* fewer bags are sold than a decade ago...
Does the UK still have the fastest growth rate in the G7 after today's Q2 2025 data?
Not on a quarter-on-quarter basis - the US grew faster in Q2.
But if you annualise growth rates over Q1 and Q2 the answer is possibly (2% vs 1.2% in the US).
Note: we don't yet have data from Japan for Q2...
Not on a quarter-on-quarter basis - the US grew faster in Q2.
But if you annualise growth rates over Q1 and Q2 the answer is possibly (2% vs 1.2% in the US).
Note: we don't yet have data from Japan for Q2...
August 14, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Does the UK still have the fastest growth rate in the G7 after today's Q2 2025 data?
Not on a quarter-on-quarter basis - the US grew faster in Q2.
But if you annualise growth rates over Q1 and Q2 the answer is possibly (2% vs 1.2% in the US).
Note: we don't yet have data from Japan for Q2...
Not on a quarter-on-quarter basis - the US grew faster in Q2.
But if you annualise growth rates over Q1 and Q2 the answer is possibly (2% vs 1.2% in the US).
Note: we don't yet have data from Japan for Q2...
So this is, in a nutshell, is what the government has done.
- Cash payments = £35bn
- After adjusting for inflation = £10.2bn
- After adjusting for social time preference (STPR) = £3.4bn...
12/22
- Cash payments = £35bn
- After adjusting for inflation = £10.2bn
- After adjusting for social time preference (STPR) = £3.4bn...
12/22
August 11, 2025 at 1:38 PM
So this is, in a nutshell, is what the government has done.
- Cash payments = £35bn
- After adjusting for inflation = £10.2bn
- After adjusting for social time preference (STPR) = £3.4bn...
12/22
- Cash payments = £35bn
- After adjusting for inflation = £10.2bn
- After adjusting for social time preference (STPR) = £3.4bn...
12/22
If you apply those official Green Book discount rates to the Chagos payments that works out as:
- £2.5bn in years 1-30
- £798m in years 31-75
- £154m in years 76-99
Adding them together, gives a total of £3.4bn - the figure claimed by the government...
11/22
- £2.5bn in years 1-30
- £798m in years 31-75
- £154m in years 76-99
Adding them together, gives a total of £3.4bn - the figure claimed by the government...
11/22
August 11, 2025 at 1:38 PM
If you apply those official Green Book discount rates to the Chagos payments that works out as:
- £2.5bn in years 1-30
- £798m in years 31-75
- £154m in years 76-99
Adding them together, gives a total of £3.4bn - the figure claimed by the government...
11/22
- £2.5bn in years 1-30
- £798m in years 31-75
- £154m in years 76-99
Adding them together, gives a total of £3.4bn - the figure claimed by the government...
11/22
The government discounted the annual payments owed using different rates over three time periods:
- 3.5% for the first 30 years of payments
- 3% for payments in years 31-75
- 2.5% for payments in years 76-99...
9/22
- 3.5% for the first 30 years of payments
- 3% for payments in years 31-75
- 2.5% for payments in years 76-99...
9/22
August 11, 2025 at 1:38 PM
The government discounted the annual payments owed using different rates over three time periods:
- 3.5% for the first 30 years of payments
- 3% for payments in years 31-75
- 2.5% for payments in years 76-99...
9/22
- 3.5% for the first 30 years of payments
- 3% for payments in years 31-75
- 2.5% for payments in years 76-99...
9/22
So how have ministers come up with the much lower figure of £3.4bn?
First, by adjusting those projected cash payouts by the OBR's 2.3%/year inflation forecast to get a real terms cost in each year.
That shows an annual payment of around £100m & a cumulative total of £10.2bn over 99 years...
6/22
First, by adjusting those projected cash payouts by the OBR's 2.3%/year inflation forecast to get a real terms cost in each year.
That shows an annual payment of around £100m & a cumulative total of £10.2bn over 99 years...
6/22
August 11, 2025 at 1:38 PM
So how have ministers come up with the much lower figure of £3.4bn?
First, by adjusting those projected cash payouts by the OBR's 2.3%/year inflation forecast to get a real terms cost in each year.
That shows an annual payment of around £100m & a cumulative total of £10.2bn over 99 years...
6/22
First, by adjusting those projected cash payouts by the OBR's 2.3%/year inflation forecast to get a real terms cost in each year.
That shows an annual payment of around £100m & a cumulative total of £10.2bn over 99 years...
6/22
The Office for Budget Responsibility has an assumption that long-term inflation will be 2.3%/year.
Applying this to the relevant cash payment figures in the deal and adding them up over 99 years gives you a cumulative bill of around £35bn...
5/22
Applying this to the relevant cash payment figures in the deal and adding them up over 99 years gives you a cumulative bill of around £35bn...
5/22
August 11, 2025 at 1:38 PM
The Office for Budget Responsibility has an assumption that long-term inflation will be 2.3%/year.
Applying this to the relevant cash payment figures in the deal and adding them up over 99 years gives you a cumulative bill of around £35bn...
5/22
Applying this to the relevant cash payment figures in the deal and adding them up over 99 years gives you a cumulative bill of around £35bn...
5/22