Nicolai von Ondarza
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nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza
@nvondarza.bsky.social
14K followers 1K following 3K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21d
November was a month of high tension in the European Parliament.

I went through 51 final votes and 10 public Council votes for my latest EU-Analytics review – and found three different working majorities at play:
EU Analytics November 2025 review
The breakdown of the Cordon Sanitaire amid three different majorities
substack.com

Reposted by Philipp Sarasin

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 3d
And JD Vance 🙈

Reposted by Andrew Scott, Ben Tonra

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 3d
Have become quite critical of Macron lately. But for the EU's sole nuclear power this is an important response.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
Going into hibernation mode until early next year. Enjoy Christmas and have a great start into 2026 everybody!

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Nicolai von Ondarza

sandertordoir.bsky.social
Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 7d
My letter in the Economist pushes back on its take on Europe and the second China shock.

The Economist lays out the profound pressure China is putting on EU manufacturing, but then proceeds to advocate the EU give up and switch to services à la the UK. That feels thin.

Pleased they published it.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

javilopen.bsky.social
Javi Lopez ⛩️ @javilopen.bsky.social · 7d
How do you call something that is super smart and evil at the same time?

Do you remember when Elon signed the FLI letter to pause, for 6 months, the training of models more powerful than GPT-4...

And 3 months later he launched Grok? 🤣

Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza, Steven H. Seggie

maxbergmann.bsky.social
Max Bergmann @maxbergmann.bsky.social · 7d
The EU never gets praise even when it acts. There is so much constant EU negging that commentators struggle to praise when it delivers. The EU did what it needed to do. Take the win.

Last night was a big step for Ukraine and the European project.

First, the EU got the money for Ukraine 1/

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

stevepeers.bsky.social
Steve Peers @stevepeers.bsky.social · 7d
Presumably there will be some sort of link by means of cross-reference or political synching up. In any event the decision triggering enhanced cooperation has to come before the vote on the legislation implementing it (ie the Art 212 law on the loan). Indeed enhanced cooperation trigger needs QMV.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
It is almost mean that they drop this consequential move for loads of EU policy nerds on what is for many the last major working day before Christmas. So many policy and institutional consequences to think through...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

veron.bsky.social
Nicolas Veron @veron.bsky.social · 7d
One more point actually, about Belgium.

The Belgian authorities have indicated that they were vulnerable to Russian bullying. PM Bart De Wever has been commendably transparent that Putin's direct threats were among his motivations to oppose the Commission's proposal for a Reparations Loan. (1/2)

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

veron.bsky.social
Nicolas Veron @veron.bsky.social · 7d
In 2022, financial support to Ukraine was led by the US with Europeans as followers. Now the EU is leading it, while the US has withdrawn from the financial front. As recently as a year ago, the dominant expectation was that the EU would have no choice but to follow a US financial withdrawal. (2/N)

Reposted by David M. Farrell, Nicolai von Ondarza

michaelgtcd.bsky.social
Michael Gallagher @michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 7d
The time between christmas and new year is usually a time of little political activity. But not this year in Kosovo, where a general election will take place on 28 December. Kosovo becomes the 12th European country since 1945 to hold more than 1 election in a calendar year.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
Great analysis by my colleague @julianasuess.bsky.social on EU space policy - both for the challenges and opportunities in the area itself, and as a case study on what is needed on the path to reduce dependencies on the US for core strategic capabilities:
swp-berlin.org Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 7d
Weltraumfähigkeit: Die Abhängigkeit von den USA ist groß. Um europäische Autonomie zu schaffen, sollten Fähigkeiten wie Weltraumlageerfassung, militärische Aufklärung oder Raketenfrühwarnung priorisiert werden, so @julianasuess.bsky.social www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Europäische Autonomie im Weltraum
Satellitensysteme als Pfeiler europäischer Verteidigung
www.swp-berlin.org

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

tokarski.bsky.social
Paweł Tokarski @tokarski.bsky.social · 7d
It is very interesting to look at European integration in terms of jointly generated debt. This is what this recently published book is about.
academic.oup.com/book/61738/c...
Introduction: How the EU Came to Issue Debt on the Scale of a Large State
Abstract. Under the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, all expenditure and revenue shown in the EU budget must be in balance. Despite this le
academic.oup.com

Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza

columnist.bsky.social
Dr Stylite @columnist.bsky.social · 7d
Politico’s European coverage verging on self parody.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
A less positive reading is that there are still veto opportunities down the road for Orbán & Co, if the MFF regulation indeed needs to be changed.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
This means that the EUCO agreement rests on a form of constructive abstention, in the sense that Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia will actively have to vote for the approach ont he conditions that they do not have to pay.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
Interesting thread on the legal implementation of the 90bn loan.

My understanding is that Enhanced Cooperation can be adopted by majority, so does not need Orbán & co, but if the MFF regulation needs changing as Lucas argues, this implies everyone has to actively vote in favour of this approach.
lucasguttenberg.bsky.social Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 7d
So what the hell just happened? Two things: Ukraine will get 90 billion euros. And Orbán did not veto that even though he could have.

How so? Short thread:

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

swp-berlin.org
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 7d
Weltraumfähigkeit: Die Abhängigkeit von den USA ist groß. Um europäische Autonomie zu schaffen, sollten Fähigkeiten wie Weltraumlageerfassung, militärische Aufklärung oder Raketenfrühwarnung priorisiert werden, so @julianasuess.bsky.social www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Europäische Autonomie im Weltraum
Satellitensysteme als Pfeiler europäischer Verteidigung
www.swp-berlin.org

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
Fascinating, also for other countries (hopefully) following later. Do you know of data whether this already impacts in the form of closure of petrol stations etc? There must be a sort of tipping point where normal petrol stations are no longer economically in parts of the country.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
I have the choice between 'Basic Instinct' (German charts) and 'Patriot Games' (US Charts).

For once, I am going with the US option and will clearly become Jack Ryan next year.

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Steve Peers, Ben Tonra , and 1 more

lucasguttenberg.bsky.social
Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 7d
So what the hell just happened? Two things: Ukraine will get 90 billion euros. And Orbán did not veto that even though he could have.

How so? Short thread:

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

alxluck.bsky.social
Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 7d
A joint venture between Rheinmetall and Finnish SAR satellite company ICEYE has received a provider contract supplying Bundeswehr with SAR reconnaissance imagery. IOC for the relevant constellation is 10/2026, FOC 04/2028. Contract expires end of 2030.
esut.de/2025/12/meld...
Taktische Weltraumaufklärung SPOCK 1 von Rheinmetall und ICYE (RISS)
Das BAAINBw hat mit dem Joint Venture Rheinmetall ICEYE Space Solutions (RISS) einen Betreibervertrag für das Weltraumaufklärungssystem mit SAR-Satelliten abgeschlossen. Die Leistungen sollen im Zeitr...
esut.de

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza, Stijn Smismans

bencrum.nl
Ben Crum @bencrum.nl · 7d
. @vkreilinger.bsky.social: "Is the #EU24 the new EU?"

I have mixed feelings about the "solution" used yesterday to provide the 90 bn loan to Ukraine

On the one hand, this is the way that the European Council should have handled the Hungary-problem for long; much better than "bribing" them ...
vkreilinger.bsky.social Valentin Kreilinger @vkreilinger.bsky.social · 7d
Article 20 TEU for ”enhanced cooperation“ is mentioned in the Conclusions of the European Council on the reparations loan for Ukraine. A smart move! It allows to go ahead without Orbán, Fico and Babiš. Is the #EU24 the new EU? #EUCO 1/3

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
A positive side effect of using Enhanced Cooperation and the EU budget:

This not only steps around vetos, but also involves the European Parliament. This gives the loan to Ukraine well needed democratic legitimacy - and will be a test where political parties in the EP stand on Ukraine/Russia.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
In a way, this seems to me a form of 'constructive abstention' - of Hungary (plus Slovakia and Czechia) being comfortable with the use of the EU budget via Enhanced Cooperation, as long as they were exempt:
eublogo.bsky.social Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 7d
Two days before the summit, Hungary had signalled to the European Commission that while it was opposed to joint debt for Ukraine, it could agree to borrowing against the budget if Budapest was exempt from repaying it, two officials told the FT
financialtimes.com Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 7d
How Merz’s summit plan on Russian assets backfired ft.trib.al/pnrW3n5

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

eublogo.bsky.social
Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 7d
Two days before the summit, Hungary had signalled to the European Commission that while it was opposed to joint debt for Ukraine, it could agree to borrowing against the budget if Budapest was exempt from repaying it, two officials told the FT

Reposted by Ben Tonra, Nicolai von Ondarza

tobyvogel.bsky.social
Toby Vogel 🇪🇺 @tobyvogel.bsky.social · 7d
Big deal: Ukraine gets the financing it needs to resist Russia's war of extermination
Big deal: EU does foreign policy* through joint borrowing
Big deal: EU sidesteps national vetoes to act decisively

But thanks to Merz and VDL and their stubbornness it looks like a failure

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7d
Much to be critical on how last night's EU decision on a loan to Ukraine came about.

But together with the use of Art. 122 on the Russian loans the way via Enhanced Cooperation shows that on foreign policy, the EU is willing to move from Unity to Action as its guiding principle.
EU agrees €90bn loan to Ukraine after frozen Russian asset plan fails
Money to be borrowed against bloc’s budget after leaders fail to agree on proposal using Moscow’s funds
www.ft.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

guntramwolff.bsky.social
Guntram Wolff @guntramwolff.bsky.social · 7d
Most important is that Ukraine gets the money. Huge deal for EU:
1) if you want to do EU foreign policy, you need EU resources and debt. #EUCO delivered
2) First time this EU debt was decided without unanimity as far as I can remember

www.consilium.europa.eu/media/wqmkno...
www.consilium.europa.eu

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Laurent Pech, Nicolai von Ondarza

stevepeers.bsky.social
Steve Peers @stevepeers.bsky.social · 7d
A quick explanation of how this borrowing to assist Ukraine will work. "Enhanced cooperation" means EU law is being used, but some Member States opt out. The process has been applied a few times before, but never before re the EU budget. 1/
jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 7d
🚨 The latest conclusions say the EU will trigger Article 20 of enhanced cooperation to ensure that any mobilisation of EU resources to guarantee joint debt "will not have an impact on the financial obligations of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia," as previously reported by Euronews.
jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 7d
🚨 Bombshell at #EUCO at almost 2 am: António Costa has proposed to use common borrowing to meet Ukraine's most immediate financial needs while technical work on the reparations loan continues in the coming months.

Messy mix-match solution. Leaders are still discussing.