Nicolai von Ondarza

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 8h

Always happy to share! The tool itself is unfortunately only running locally on my home PC. But I am reguarly posting insights from it at my substack EU-Analytics like this one:

EU Analytics January 2026 review

The unpredictability of a shifting EU political landscape

substack.com

Sabine Fischer @sabfis3.bsky.social · 10h

Immer wieder wird in unserer Debatte gefragt, ob die Menschen in der #Ukraine zu Zugeständnissen bereit sind. Gerade in einem (wie immer sehr guten) Gespräch mit dem wunderbaren @golod.bsky.social im @deutschlandfunk.de.web.brid.gy.

Dabei sollte nicht vergessen werden:

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 20h

Finally, the other expectation also came true - despite flirting with the far-right on the issue, on the EU-US trade deal the 'von der Leyen' Platform found a deal, including new safeguards in case Trump raises tariffs or threatens another EU country.

S&D Group @socialistsanddemocrats.eu · 21h

We welcome the agreement reached today in the EP that fundamentally improves last year’s EU–US Turnberry tariff deal.

Congrats, rapporteur Bernd Lange for delivering on key priorities, providing greater certainty & stability for 🇪🇺workers & businesses.
www.socialistsanddemocrats.eu/newsroom/sds...

Europe Elects @europeelects.bsky.social · 21h

Italy: right-wing Lega (PfE) reaches a record low of 6.6%, its lowest level since October 2014, in the latest SWG poll.

The decline follows the exit from the party of MEP Roberto Vannacci (FN-NI).

➤ europeelects.eu/italy

#Salvini #Vannacci

S&D Group @socialistsanddemocrats.eu · 21h

We welcome the agreement reached today in the EP that fundamentally improves last year’s EU–US Turnberry tariff deal.

Congrats, rapporteur Bernd Lange for delivering on key priorities, providing greater certainty & stability for 🇪🇺workers & businesses.
www.socialistsanddemocrats.eu/newsroom/sds...

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

That is something I wondered as well. With national ratification it seems to me far-fetched that Art. 7 could take that away - constitutionally highly problematic - even if the other member states wanted that.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Further working on my analytical tool for EU-Analytics. If you look at the (just 11) main votes in the European Parliament on migration in this legislature, the EPP now votes more often together with the ECR, PfE and ESN than with its 'von der Leyen' platform partners:

Max Bergmann @maxbergmann.bsky.social · 1d

I think something new needs to be built. A Schengen type structure created through PESCO is one option. But the geopolitical problem with a pure Coalition of the Willing of states is it maintains the divorce in Europe between economic and military power. In a war, need to have that linked.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

The wierdness of the current European Parliament, however, means that on the same day a hardening of migration laws is adopted with the help of the far-right, a broad majority of the centre plus the Greens adopt a progressive climate law, against the far-right:

Thomas Pellerin-Carlin @tpellerincarlin.bsky.social · 1d

C’est une victoire !
Le Parlement européen vient d’adopter la loi climat, fruit d’une large coalition, des Verts à la droite rationnelle, unie autour d’un objectif commun : répondre à l’urgence climatique et assumer la responsabilité historique de l’Europe.

(1/3)

Thomas Pellerin-Carlin @tpellerincarlin.bsky.social · 1d

C’est une victoire !
Le Parlement européen vient d’adopter la loi climat, fruit d’une large coalition, des Verts à la droite rationnelle, unie autour d’un objectif commun : répondre à l’urgence climatique et assumer la responsabilité historique de l’Europe.

(1/3)

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

This means that at least as far as the European Parliament is concerned, a core tenet of the EU's migration policy is now co-decided by the far-right, including its most extreme elements in the ESN, like the German AfD.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

As expected, all three votes today on the aspects of the 'safe third countries' list at EU level were carried by the EPP with the three far-right parties.

Each of the votes looked like a variation of this (data via @howtheyvote.eu):

Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 1d

I don’t think that’s true. Alone the fact that the EU has a tried-and-tested technical, legal, bureaucratic and political infrastructure in place to collect money from members, spend it jointly and even issue debt is an advantage over any new institution that is hard to overstate.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

An overlooked but important institutional change - @kajakallas.bsky.social is now reguarly calling de facto Defence Councils with the national defence ministers.

From its past, the EU does not have a normal Defence Council, as Foreign Ministers used to steer the Common Security and Defence policy.

EU Council @consilium.europa.eu · 1d

Defence ministers will meet in Brussels on 11 February to discuss EU support to Ukraine, with a focus on defence innovation. Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, will take part in the meeting.

Read the agenda highlights: link.europa.eu/hpMqKw

On the left, the text "Foreign Affairs Council (Defence), 11 February 2026, Brussels". On the right, a photo of the atrium of the Europa building of the Council.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Yes, but it will be a huge difference whether the EU with a closely associated UK & Norway become the centre of gravity of European defence, or a fragmented Coalition of the Willing, with little joint political authority.

The latter is easier in the short run, but more unstable in the long run.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Next step in the EP saga on Mercosur - after the slim majority for referral to the ECJ (with the potential for a huge delay) now a broad majority for agriculture safety net.

This will likely play into the discussion about whether Commission & Council opt for provisional application.

Bernd Lange MdEP @bernd-lange.bsky.social · 1d

Relieved that additional safety net for agriculture now in place. Next challenge: returning to (or starting?) a discussion based on facts. We should get it right by the time of our consent procedure. Letting this deal slip away would be a huge failure we cannot afford. #Mercosur

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Fragmented UK political space - scandals are breaking on bluesky, cabinet ministers post their support for the Prime Minister on X.

Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 1d

No-one seems to have noticed, but many of the core developments in the Mandelson/Epstein story these last few days have been broken on this website. @pickardje.bsky.social and @petergeoghegan.bsky.social are both posting each breaking development on BlueSky, not X.

Bernd Lange MdEP @bernd-lange.bsky.social · 1d

Relieved that additional safety net for agriculture now in place. Next challenge: returning to (or starting?) a discussion based on facts. We should get it right by the time of our consent procedure. Letting this deal slip away would be a huge failure we cannot afford. #Mercosur

Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 1d

No-one seems to have noticed, but many of the core developments in the Mandelson/Epstein story these last few days have been broken on this website. @pickardje.bsky.social and @petergeoghegan.bsky.social are both posting each breaking development on BlueSky, not X.

EU Council @consilium.europa.eu · 1d

Defence ministers will meet in Brussels on 11 February to discuss EU support to Ukraine, with a focus on defence innovation. Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, will take part in the meeting.

Read the agenda highlights: link.europa.eu/hpMqKw

Jay in Kyiv @jayinkyiv.bsky.social · 1d

An Irishman living in US for 20 years with a valid visa, no criminal record, married to a US citizen, kidnapped by ICE and sent to a concentration camp 2000 miles away for 5 months.

www.irishtimes.com/world/us/202...

Irishman detained by Ice appeals to Taoiseach to raise case with Trump amid ‘torture’

Seamus Culleton from Kilkenny has been in Texas Ice facility for nearly five months despite holding valid work permit

www.irishtimes.com

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 1d

Financial Times featured my recruitment estimates today. www.ft.com/content/ce74...

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

There is a serious debate to be had there about how to organise long transition periods that could make Ukraine accession more managable, also in areas like agriculture. Alas, pretending taking away Hungary's voting rights is seriously considered is not that serious debate.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

That being said, losing trust in the US as a security provider is not the same as gaining trust in the EU/European allies. There Europeans need to step up together, with Poland a key part of it.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

I remember well discussions with colleagues from Poland in 2024 arguing that Olaf Scholz was a bigger problem for their security than if Trump were to be reelected. This is a big change.

James Kanter @jameskanter.bsky.social · 1d

Poles no longer trusting the US for protection is a really big story. 27% of respondents see EU states as main source of assistance in emergency vs 15% the Americans. That said nearly 25% say Poland cannot on either US or EU states.
h/t @euractiv.com

UE czy USA?

Według badania przeprowadzonego przez Opinia24 na zlecenie RMF FM w obliczu potencjalnego zagrożenia Polacy częściej liczą na wsparcie europejskich sąsiadów niż na pomoc zza oceanu. Najnowszy sondaż u...

www.rmf24.pl

James Kanter @jameskanter.bsky.social · 1d

Poles no longer trusting the US for protection is a really big story. 27% of respondents see EU states as main source of assistance in emergency vs 15% the Americans. That said nearly 25% say Poland cannot on either US or EU states.
h/t @euractiv.com

UE czy USA?

Według badania przeprowadzonego przez Opinia24 na zlecenie RMF FM w obliczu potencjalnego zagrożenia Polacy częściej liczą na wsparcie europejskich sąsiadów niż na pomoc zza oceanu. Najnowszy sondaż u...

www.rmf24.pl

Anna Hubert @annahbrt.bsky.social · 1d

Today in @contexte.com
👉 In Antwerp, nearly half a dozen EU leaders are attending the industry summit

Macron, Merz, Belgian De Wever, Dutch Schoof & Austria's Stocker will participate. More could join.

This is complicating Cefic's organisation ; it's been somewhat “overwhelmed”

Paweł Tokarski @tokarski.bsky.social · 1d

The Banque de France Governor’s resignation: a masterstroke of political chess?
By creating an "institutional lock," Macron ensures his successor inherits a leadership team appointed by him until 2029/2032. It protects France and Eurozone from policy shifts.

fr.euronews.com/business/202...

Gouverneur de la Banque de France démissionne, Macron tranchera

François Villeroy de Galhau a surpris en annonçant sa démission anticipée de la Banque de France. Des analystes y voient un calcul pour peser sur sa succession.

fr.euronews.com

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Unhelpful mixture of different debates. The question of Ukraine's EU accession will not be solved by using Art. 7 against Hungary.

This kind of pretense, that the other member states could take away Hungary's voting rights and then force through Ukraine accession, plays only into Orban's arguments

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

The EU is hatching an unprecedented plan that could give Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as early as next year.

Based on conversations with 10 officials and diplomats, we have identified five steps that could make it happen 👇

5 steps to get Ukraine into the EU in 2027

Plans to bring Kyiv into the tent before it has completed all reforms and to remove Hungary’s veto signal a sense of urgency in Brussels.

www.politico.eu

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

The EU is hatching an unprecedented plan that could give Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as early as next year.

Based on conversations with 10 officials and diplomats, we have identified five steps that could make it happen 👇

5 steps to get Ukraine into the EU in 2027

Plans to bring Kyiv into the tent before it has completed all reforms and to remove Hungary’s veto signal a sense of urgency in Brussels.

www.politico.eu

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