Stephen Evans | Lightnews

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 22h

Normally you'd expect growing sectors to have to increase pay to attract people. But sectors with the fastest pay growth have seen some of the biggest falls in payroll employment. Partly, I'd say, because employer costs (NMW & NICs) are rising faster than employers can rise prices or productivity.

Emily Andrews @emilyishness.bsky.social · 22h

📉🤯📉 Should we be panicking about the labour market? I have commandeered the L&W monthly briefing + our expert team to help me think this question through. 🤯📉🤯

You can read the whole thing here - but here are some headline thoughts...

learningandwork.org.uk/labour-marke...

Labour Market Briefing: February 2026 - Learning and Work Institute

Our analysis of the ONS labour market statistics, released on the morning of 17 February 2026.

learningandwork.org.uk

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 1d

Thinking of a career in think tanks?

On Wednesday, we're hosting a webinar for undergraduates or those with similar experience interested in working in the sector. We'll have speakers from numerous organisations sharing their insight and experience.

Register here 👉 buff.ly/a3cO0df

Working in the think tank sector

Webinar for undergraduates or those with similar experience interested in working in the sector

Think tanks are research organisations that develop ideas and suggestions for action on a whole range of subjects affecting society. Using research, analysis and commentary, we aim to inform and influence politicians, policy makers and the public.

This event is aimed at people from Black, Asian and other minority ethnic groups, people with work-limiting health conditions or impairments, young adults with caring responsibilities (including young parents), mature students, people from lower-income backgrounds, care leavers and LGBT+ students.

Wednesday 18 February 2026
3:30 pm - 6:05 pm

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 1d

ASHE data shows a similar picture. And I've included real terms for comparison. [Charts produced by copilot as an experiment - I've sensechecked the data thought].

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 1d

On pay, PAYE data (which is partial, e.g. doesn't include most self-employment) shows lower paid have generally had bigger pay rises than average or higher paid as minimum wage has risen over last decade. These are nominal data & overall growth slow so not claiming 'we've never had it so good'!

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 1d

Bonus chart. Here's the change in 3m average payroll employment. 3m average to limit the effect of latest data being more provisional. But this is not a good picture. Reminder: population rises over time so some running to stand still on jobs. Reminder 2: like all data, PAYE has its flaws.

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 1d

By the way, the Government has an ambition for an 80% employment rate (no timeframe - in my view would need c10 years). When it took office, 75% of 16-64 year olds were in work. Now, 75% are in work. OBR projection for 2030 equivalent to, 75%. Hmm...

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 1d

Another cheery pull quote from me. Points of hope would be that the labour market isn't going off a cliff, figures get revised, and the Government can take action to create a more business friendly environment & help more people look for work.

Learning and Work Institute @learnworkuk.bsky.social · 1d

"Overall, employment is falling, unemployment rising and vacancies flat."

💬 L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social responds to the labour market statistics released by ONS today.

Labour market stats response, February 2026 - Learning and Work Institute

L&W's chief executive Stephen Evans responds to the latest labour market data from ONS.

learningandwork.org.uk

Learning and Work Institute @learnworkuk.bsky.social · 1d

"Overall, employment is falling, unemployment rising and vacancies flat."

💬 L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social responds to the labour market statistics released by ONS today.

Labour market stats response, February 2026 - Learning and Work Institute

L&W's chief executive Stephen Evans responds to the latest labour market data from ONS.

learningandwork.org.uk

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 1d

Definitely the case that rising employer costs plus a flattish economy equals likelihood of reduced hiring, yes.

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 1d

To illustrate the point about hiring. 600k people started a new payroll job in December; down from 650-700k in post-pandemic years. Proportion of people LFS estimates are starting a new job (from out of work or another job) also trending down. Labour market softening is broadly falling hiring.

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 1d

Correction, PAYE drop last month is revised to 5.6K (rather than 2k). Point still stands: these figures can be revised a fair bit, but overall no doubt the labour market is flattening / weakening.

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 1d

Nearly 1m young people are not in education, employment or training, risking long-term harm to career prospects. 58% say they've never had a paid job. Disrupted education & transition to work through Covid, plus falls in sectors they're most likely to have a first job, are making it more difficult

A Youth Guarantee for England - Learning and Work Institute

Following the Government’s commitment to introducing a Youth Guarantee in England, something we first called for five years ago, L&W is launching a new project.

learningandwork.org.uk

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 1d

Labour market stats not great. A worrying 1 in 7 18-24 year olds now unemployed. Retail & hospitality bearing the brunt, with 122k fewer people in payroll employment. Rising employer costs & flat economy taking a toll. But figures subject to revision. Last months 43k PAYE drop now revised to 2k.

Grodaeu @groda.eu · 1d

Good point by @sarahoconnorft.ft.com "low skilled" is a stupid label. Since skill isnt measurably (except in sport) it always always just means low wage. Say that instead.
www.ft.com/content/0409...

Learning and Work Institute @learnworkuk.bsky.social · 2d

You have until this Friday to apply for two exciting roles at L&W! ⏰

➡️ Deputy Director, Policy and Research (Better Work and Progression)
➡️ Head of Research: Qualitative Methods and Evaluation

Find out about what the roles involve and apply. ⬇️

Join our team - Learning and Work Institute

learningandwork.org.uk

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 3d

Try telling someone in Germany that in England we’ve decided one year is far too long for lots of apprenticeships. They’ll probably assume they’ve misheard you. As Charlotte I think argues part of the answer is to stop calling everything an apprenticeship, other training has value too.

FE Week @feweek.bsky.social · 3d

'Employers will continue to view them as high-risk, high-cost propositions'
Charlotte Bosworth warns an eight-month apprenticeship model may suit policy design, but not fast-moving sectors or frontline services
https://feweek.co.uk/one-size-fits-all-foundation-apprenticeships-just-wont-work/

FE Week @feweek.bsky.social · 3d

'Employers will continue to view them as high-risk, high-cost propositions'
Charlotte Bosworth warns an eight-month apprenticeship model may suit policy design, but not fast-moving sectors or frontline services
https://feweek.co.uk/one-size-fits-all-foundation-apprenticeships-just-wont-work/

Chris Dillow @chrisdillow.bsky.social · 3d

New substack: politics is not about cosy debates or soundbites on silly TV shows. It’s about conflicts of interest. chrisdillow.substack.com/p/economic-g...

Economic growth as social change

Raising economic growth requires the government to defeat some vested interests.

chrisdillow.substack.com

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 5d

The good news is employers can still invest in these apprenticeships outside the levy - levy is a minimum not a maximum. Or there may be shorter courses that do the job that become eligible. Management & leadership is important. Doesn’t mean apprenticeships funded thru levy are answer.

FE Week @feweek.bsky.social · 5d

Exclusive: Leadership and management apprenticeships are on the chopping block under plans to find savings and tilt the apprenticeship system towards young people, skills minister Jacqui Smith has confirmed https://feweek.co.uk/management-apprenticeships-on-the-chopping-block-minister-confirms/

Management apprenticeships on the chopping block, minister confirms

Government gears up to tell employers which apprenticeships 'aren't appropriate for public funding'

feweek.co.uk

FE Week @feweek.bsky.social · 5d

Exclusive: Leadership and management apprenticeships are on the chopping block under plans to find savings and tilt the apprenticeship system towards young people, skills minister Jacqui Smith has confirmed https://feweek.co.uk/management-apprenticeships-on-the-chopping-block-minister-confirms/

Management apprenticeships on the chopping block, minister confirms

Government gears up to tell employers which apprenticeships 'aren't appropriate for public funding'

feweek.co.uk

Learning and Work Institute @learnworkuk.bsky.social · 5d

"It's good that the apprenticeship budget is increasing, though this is broadly in line with growth in the amount the levy raises; the Treasury is still keeping £700m+ of levy funds above what it spends."

Read @stephenevans.bsky.social's comments on apprenticeship budget increases in FE Week. ⬇️

Apprenticeship budget top-up piles cost pressure on ministers

Mid-year adjustment to 2025-26 allocation reinforces warnings the system is operating on increasingly fine margins

feweek.co.uk

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 5d

Includes my comment that limiting spending by e.g. limiting level 7 apprenticeships for those aged 22+ will help stay in budget. But won't make the Govt's desired pivot to more apprenticeships for young people. That needs broader action to help the near 1m YP not in education, employment or training

FE Week @feweek.bsky.social · 6d

England’s apprenticeship budget was topped up with an extra £43.2m halfway through this financial year, underscoring mounting financial pressures and intensifying government’s drive to tighten control of the system https://feweek.co.uk/apprenticeship-budget-top-up-piles-cost-pressure-on-ministers/

Apprenticeship budget top-up piles cost pressure on ministers

Mid-year adjustment to 2025-26 allocation reinforces warnings the system is operating on increasingly fine margins

feweek.co.uk

FE Week @feweek.bsky.social · 6d

England’s apprenticeship budget was topped up with an extra £43.2m halfway through this financial year, underscoring mounting financial pressures and intensifying government’s drive to tighten control of the system https://feweek.co.uk/apprenticeship-budget-top-up-piles-cost-pressure-on-ministers/

Apprenticeship budget top-up piles cost pressure on ministers

Mid-year adjustment to 2025-26 allocation reinforces warnings the system is operating on increasingly fine margins

feweek.co.uk

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 6d

Thinking of a career in think tanks?

We're hosting a webinar for undergraduates or those with similar experience interested in working in the sector. We'll have speakers from numerous organisations sharing their insight and experience.

Register here 👉 buff.ly/a3cO0df

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 7d

There seems to be an increasing number of unhelpful incentives / cliff edges that pile up when trying to raise more revenue without raising rates. And that no one gets rid of because you either have to create some losers (even if overall revenue neutral) or raise less cash. In other words, arghh!

Learning and Work Institute @learnworkuk.bsky.social · 8d

"Our future prosperity and business success is underpinned by skills. Time for us all to up our game."

✍️ In a new piece for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social's Spotlight on Policy, L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social explains four ways we can get employers to better engage with skills reform.

How do we get employers to better engage with skills reform?

Policy experts on the need to demonstrate trust, consistency, support and value.

www.newstatesman.com

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · 9d

How do we help people in at risk occupations to change career? Join us to talk about it. [Add topical joke of your choice].

Learning and Work Institute @learnworkuk.bsky.social · 9d

Just over two weeks to go until our webinar with @thenfer.bsky.social! 📺

This webinar on Tuesday 24 February will present research from NFER's #Skills2035 programme to consider how the adult skills system can better meet the needs of people in at-risk occupations.

Register now. ⬇️

Turning risk into opportunity: Reskilling workers in a changing economy - Learning and Work Institute

This webinar will present research from NFER’s The Skills Imperative 2035 programme and consider how the adult skills system can be reinvigorated to better meet the needs of people in at-risk occupati...

learningandwork.org.uk

Learning and Work Institute @learnworkuk.bsky.social · 9d

Just over two weeks to go until our webinar with @thenfer.bsky.social! 📺

This webinar on Tuesday 24 February will present research from NFER's #Skills2035 programme to consider how the adult skills system can better meet the needs of people in at-risk occupations.

Register now. ⬇️

Turning risk into opportunity: Reskilling workers in a changing economy - Learning and Work Institute

This webinar will present research from NFER’s The Skills Imperative 2035 programme and consider how the adult skills system can be reinvigorated to better meet the needs of people in at-risk occupati...

learningandwork.org.uk

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