Paul Bivand
@paulbivand.bsky.social
Labour market stats wonk: default mode: cynical. Boosts are not endorsements and may be ironic. Also on avian-dinosaur-site @PaulBivand
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside).
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside).
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Independent Report into Young People and Work. Statement made by Pat McFadden on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2025-11-11/HCWS1028
November 11, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Independent Report into Young People and Work. Statement made by Pat McFadden on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2025-11-11/HCWS1028
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Workers told us: flexible working requests get approved on paper, but workloads stay the same. Careers stall, burnout rises. New legislation arrives in 2027, but without culture change, the gap between policy and practice remains. Read more: timewise.co.uk/article/call...
Calling time on the gap between flexible working policy and practice - Timewise
For thousands of workers across the UK, flexible working isn't a perk. It's the difference between staying in a career or dropping out altogether.
timewise.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Workers told us: flexible working requests get approved on paper, but workloads stay the same. Careers stall, burnout rises. New legislation arrives in 2027, but without culture change, the gap between policy and practice remains. Read more: timewise.co.uk/article/call...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Scrapping the cap entirely is both good policy *and* good politics.
Half measures will "save" some money short-term, but will piss *everybody* off and still leave very large numbers of children suffering from a policy designed to make them poorer.
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Half measures will "save" some money short-term, but will piss *everybody* off and still leave very large numbers of children suffering from a policy designed to make them poorer.
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Food vouchers, free milk and two-child cap: Reeves weighs up help for families
Ministers' long-awaited child poverty strategy is due this month - and it's closely tied to the Chancellor's Budget
inews.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Scrapping the cap entirely is both good policy *and* good politics.
Half measures will "save" some money short-term, but will piss *everybody* off and still leave very large numbers of children suffering from a policy designed to make them poorer.
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Half measures will "save" some money short-term, but will piss *everybody* off and still leave very large numbers of children suffering from a policy designed to make them poorer.
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
I'm obliged for the nod.
The "Penrose Effect" seems to be a real thing - hypothesised in the 1930s and re-tested in the last decade or so:
Where you reduce your inpatient psychiatric provision, you'll see a correlated rise within 10yrs in prisons of seriously mentally ill prisoners.
The "Penrose Effect" seems to be a real thing - hypothesised in the 1930s and re-tested in the last decade or so:
Where you reduce your inpatient psychiatric provision, you'll see a correlated rise within 10yrs in prisons of seriously mentally ill prisoners.
November 9, 2025 at 11:37 AM
I'm obliged for the nod.
The "Penrose Effect" seems to be a real thing - hypothesised in the 1930s and re-tested in the last decade or so:
Where you reduce your inpatient psychiatric provision, you'll see a correlated rise within 10yrs in prisons of seriously mentally ill prisoners.
The "Penrose Effect" seems to be a real thing - hypothesised in the 1930s and re-tested in the last decade or so:
Where you reduce your inpatient psychiatric provision, you'll see a correlated rise within 10yrs in prisons of seriously mentally ill prisoners.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
New, by me
The real problem which blights our prison and punishment system
The way we think about custodial sentences is what needs to change
Reflections on the wrongful prison release news
Substack: emptycity.substack.com/p/the-real-p...
Personal blog: davidallengreen.com/2025/11/the-...
The real problem which blights our prison and punishment system
The way we think about custodial sentences is what needs to change
Reflections on the wrongful prison release news
Substack: emptycity.substack.com/p/the-real-p...
Personal blog: davidallengreen.com/2025/11/the-...
The real problem which blights our prison and punishment system
7th November 2025 The way we think about custodial sentences is what needs to change * Today’s news is about prisons: * Let us take a step back. There is a serious addiction problem which blights o…
davidallengreen.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:59 AM
New, by me
The real problem which blights our prison and punishment system
The way we think about custodial sentences is what needs to change
Reflections on the wrongful prison release news
Substack: emptycity.substack.com/p/the-real-p...
Personal blog: davidallengreen.com/2025/11/the-...
The real problem which blights our prison and punishment system
The way we think about custodial sentences is what needs to change
Reflections on the wrongful prison release news
Substack: emptycity.substack.com/p/the-real-p...
Personal blog: davidallengreen.com/2025/11/the-...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Yes, we talk about the HSE a bit on our report in the summer - www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... - I think really important to have lots of conversations about the roles of HSE as well as Acas + employment tribunals etc in a reformed system
Opening doors • Resolution Foundation
Improving employment outcomes for disabled people is essential not just for raising living standards, but also for supporting economic growth. To increase the employment of disabled people, the report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 7, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Yes, we talk about the HSE a bit on our report in the summer - www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... - I think really important to have lots of conversations about the roles of HSE as well as Acas + employment tribunals etc in a reformed system
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Excellent @chrisgiles.ft.com piece putting the panic about ‘out of control welfare spending’ into perspective.
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
No need for a moral panic about the welfare system
It’s far from perfect, but the UK’s spending is broadly controlled and employment is high
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Excellent @chrisgiles.ft.com piece putting the panic about ‘out of control welfare spending’ into perspective.
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Excellent analysis of Mayfield Review from @benbgeiger.bsky.social & @louisemurphy.bsky.social
@resolutionfoundation.org
- Review has the right diagnosis & analysis of problem & drivers.
- UK labour market isn't in crisis, but does have a long-running problem with disability inclusion.
1/n
@resolutionfoundation.org
- Review has the right diagnosis & analysis of problem & drivers.
- UK labour market isn't in crisis, but does have a long-running problem with disability inclusion.
1/n
From Review to reality • Resolution Foundation
There’s always a danger that official reviews end up generating a lot of talk and symbolic gestures, but don’t set out meaningful steps for change. That’s the challenge faced by the just-published rev...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 7, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Excellent analysis of Mayfield Review from @benbgeiger.bsky.social & @louisemurphy.bsky.social
@resolutionfoundation.org
- Review has the right diagnosis & analysis of problem & drivers.
- UK labour market isn't in crisis, but does have a long-running problem with disability inclusion.
1/n
@resolutionfoundation.org
- Review has the right diagnosis & analysis of problem & drivers.
- UK labour market isn't in crisis, but does have a long-running problem with disability inclusion.
1/n
Reposted by Paul Bivand
For political hacks like myself, 'put it in the curriculum' is the oldest and hattiest of old hat policy ideas.
Why do we think schools should solve all our problems? What if we thought differently about life skills and civic education?
howtorunacountry.substack.com/p/schools-ca...
Why do we think schools should solve all our problems? What if we thought differently about life skills and civic education?
howtorunacountry.substack.com/p/schools-ca...
Schools cannot solve all our problems
The limits of ‘put it in the curriculum’ politics
howtorunacountry.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 9:28 AM
For political hacks like myself, 'put it in the curriculum' is the oldest and hattiest of old hat policy ideas.
Why do we think schools should solve all our problems? What if we thought differently about life skills and civic education?
howtorunacountry.substack.com/p/schools-ca...
Why do we think schools should solve all our problems? What if we thought differently about life skills and civic education?
howtorunacountry.substack.com/p/schools-ca...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
A fun question. In 5 years time, what looks better? The US’s enormous bet & capex on AI? Or China’s equally enormous bet and capex on renewables?
China has made cheap, clean energy available in huge quantities. The world should take the win econ.st/4oqFszB
Photo: Eyevine
Photo: Eyevine
November 7, 2025 at 7:10 AM
A fun question. In 5 years time, what looks better? The US’s enormous bet & capex on AI? Or China’s equally enormous bet and capex on renewables?
Reposted by Paul Bivand
🎄 Flags spark as a festive stand-off, with one village claiming it can't put up Christmas lights until flags come down
🗣️ A chaotic Kent County Council meeting
➡️ What else is happening at KCC this week?
🗞️ News in brief, and more
🗣️ A chaotic Kent County Council meeting
➡️ What else is happening at KCC this week?
🗞️ News in brief, and more
Flags spark festive stand-off
Plus what's going on at KCC this week, a chaotic council meeting, news in brief, and more
www.kentcurrent.news
November 7, 2025 at 9:24 AM
🎄 Flags spark as a festive stand-off, with one village claiming it can't put up Christmas lights until flags come down
🗣️ A chaotic Kent County Council meeting
➡️ What else is happening at KCC this week?
🗞️ News in brief, and more
🗣️ A chaotic Kent County Council meeting
➡️ What else is happening at KCC this week?
🗞️ News in brief, and more
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Until I die, I will never understand why so many motorists think that “having a car” should give you special protections from doing crimes.
Year one: "We can work it out as an estimate"
Year two: "Oh, look, lots of people are dodging the system!"
Year three: "We need to fit mandatory trackers to every car in the country."
Year four plus: "Why shouldn't tracker data be used in evidence? What have people got to hide?"
Year two: "Oh, look, lots of people are dodging the system!"
Year three: "We need to fit mandatory trackers to every car in the country."
Year four plus: "Why shouldn't tracker data be used in evidence? What have people got to hide?"
I don’t think think “estimated road use” is right approach - at the least drivers should have the *option* of getting a black box fitted that just tracks their EVs usage, but come on, Mel, impersonate a serious politician!
November 6, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Until I die, I will never understand why so many motorists think that “having a car” should give you special protections from doing crimes.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Today's news:
What happens when museums can't afford to buy coins...
'Auctioneer, David Guest said the "stunning" coins were sold to "bidders from all over the world and exceeded my expectations".'
Bidders.
From.
All.
Over.
The.
World.
😡
#Archaeology 🏺 #Detecting
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
What happens when museums can't afford to buy coins...
'Auctioneer, David Guest said the "stunning" coins were sold to "bidders from all over the world and exceeded my expectations".'
Bidders.
From.
All.
Over.
The.
World.
😡
#Archaeology 🏺 #Detecting
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
New Forest hoard of 70 coins dug up in lockdown fetch over £380k
The 69 gold coins and one silver were found in a garden in Milford on Sea in April 2020.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 6, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Today's news:
What happens when museums can't afford to buy coins...
'Auctioneer, David Guest said the "stunning" coins were sold to "bidders from all over the world and exceeded my expectations".'
Bidders.
From.
All.
Over.
The.
World.
😡
#Archaeology 🏺 #Detecting
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
What happens when museums can't afford to buy coins...
'Auctioneer, David Guest said the "stunning" coins were sold to "bidders from all over the world and exceeded my expectations".'
Bidders.
From.
All.
Over.
The.
World.
😡
#Archaeology 🏺 #Detecting
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Interesting & nice chart!. Similar idea to what I use in #rstats
vcd::fourfold()
- but uses quarter circles, with CI rings for the odds ratio.
- signif OR !=1 \equiv quarter circles DON'T OVERLAP
vcd::fourfold()
- but uses quarter circles, with CI rings for the odds ratio.
- signif OR !=1 \equiv quarter circles DON'T OVERLAP
November 6, 2025 at 3:39 AM
Interesting & nice chart!. Similar idea to what I use in #rstats
vcd::fourfold()
- but uses quarter circles, with CI rings for the odds ratio.
- signif OR !=1 \equiv quarter circles DON'T OVERLAP
vcd::fourfold()
- but uses quarter circles, with CI rings for the odds ratio.
- signif OR !=1 \equiv quarter circles DON'T OVERLAP
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Kent County Council is getting underway.
Slightly odd arrangements in place where usual press seats have been closed, leaving us in the public gallery, which has 14 seats. Far more than 14 people are here, leading to several journalists and others being left outside of the room.
But we’re in.
Slightly odd arrangements in place where usual press seats have been closed, leaving us in the public gallery, which has 14 seats. Far more than 14 people are here, leading to several journalists and others being left outside of the room.
But we’re in.
November 6, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Kent County Council is getting underway.
Slightly odd arrangements in place where usual press seats have been closed, leaving us in the public gallery, which has 14 seats. Far more than 14 people are here, leading to several journalists and others being left outside of the room.
But we’re in.
Slightly odd arrangements in place where usual press seats have been closed, leaving us in the public gallery, which has 14 seats. Far more than 14 people are here, leading to several journalists and others being left outside of the room.
But we’re in.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
*Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?*
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?
Yet again, the DWP has been publishing data in a misleading way, making it hard to know what's going on...
inequalities.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:21 AM
*Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?*
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
🚨🚨This is stellar investigative journalism by @kaitlintosh.bsky.social and @michelleinezsimon.bsky.social on how #elonmusk is boosting the #british right. 🧵 news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how
Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how
news.sky.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:51 AM
🚨🚨This is stellar investigative journalism by @kaitlintosh.bsky.social and @michelleinezsimon.bsky.social on how #elonmusk is boosting the #british right. 🧵 news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
A remarkable (and powerful) judgment from a District Judge refusing to amend a landlord's injunction for access to inspect to include a power of forced entry. The common law was against it, no statute allowed it and the procedure rules could not override this.
nearlylegal.co.uk/2025/11/the-...
nearlylegal.co.uk/2025/11/the-...
The King of England… and all his force dares not cross the threshold - Nearly Legal: Housing Law News and Comment
Southern Housing v James Emmanuel (2025) EWCC 58 This was a first instance judgment, by District Judge Cridge at Bromley County Court, on the vexed issue of whether the court has the power to amend an...
nearlylegal.co.uk
November 2, 2025 at 6:29 PM
A remarkable (and powerful) judgment from a District Judge refusing to amend a landlord's injunction for access to inspect to include a power of forced entry. The common law was against it, no statute allowed it and the procedure rules could not override this.
nearlylegal.co.uk/2025/11/the-...
nearlylegal.co.uk/2025/11/the-...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
ITS A COYOTE! CHASING A ROAD RUNNER!
Wonder why this scene looks so familiar...
#WildlifeWednesday 🐦🐕
#WildlifeWednesday 🐦🐕
November 5, 2025 at 10:07 PM
ITS A COYOTE! CHASING A ROAD RUNNER!
Reposted by Paul Bivand
📒 Government published Sir Charlie Mayfield's ‘Keep Britain Working’ report today.
An ambitious framework for how employers can support workers in ill-health.
Focus must be here to shift the dial on employment of disabled people & benefit spend, not cutting people's benefits. 🧵
An ambitious framework for how employers can support workers in ill-health.
Focus must be here to shift the dial on employment of disabled people & benefit spend, not cutting people's benefits. 🧵
This morning's reading: "Employers join forces with government to tackle ill-health and keep Britain working" from Department of Health and Social Care www.gov.uk/government/n...
Employers join forces with government to tackle ill-health and keep Britain working
More than 60 major and many small employers are joining forces with government to tackle the rising tide of ill-health that is pushing people out of work and holding back growth.
www.gov.uk
November 5, 2025 at 5:49 PM
📒 Government published Sir Charlie Mayfield's ‘Keep Britain Working’ report today.
An ambitious framework for how employers can support workers in ill-health.
Focus must be here to shift the dial on employment of disabled people & benefit spend, not cutting people's benefits. 🧵
An ambitious framework for how employers can support workers in ill-health.
Focus must be here to shift the dial on employment of disabled people & benefit spend, not cutting people's benefits. 🧵
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Women deserve the freedom to move - yet many still feel unsafe cycling
No one should have to choose between a busy road or a dark path. When cycling’s safer for women, it’s safer for everyone 🚲
👉 Donate or join: cyclinguk.org/my-ride-our-right
'My ride. Our right' – supported by Cycle SOS
No one should have to choose between a busy road or a dark path. When cycling’s safer for women, it’s safer for everyone 🚲
👉 Donate or join: cyclinguk.org/my-ride-our-right
'My ride. Our right' – supported by Cycle SOS
November 5, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Women deserve the freedom to move - yet many still feel unsafe cycling
No one should have to choose between a busy road or a dark path. When cycling’s safer for women, it’s safer for everyone 🚲
👉 Donate or join: cyclinguk.org/my-ride-our-right
'My ride. Our right' – supported by Cycle SOS
No one should have to choose between a busy road or a dark path. When cycling’s safer for women, it’s safer for everyone 🚲
👉 Donate or join: cyclinguk.org/my-ride-our-right
'My ride. Our right' – supported by Cycle SOS
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?
Maybe not if claimants moving to UC are counted as initial claims at their first WCA reassessment on UC. open.substack.com/pub/inequali...
Maybe not if claimants moving to UC are counted as initial claims at their first WCA reassessment on UC. open.substack.com/pub/inequali...
Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?
Yet again, the DWP has been publishing data in a misleading way, making it hard to know what's going on...
open.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?
Maybe not if claimants moving to UC are counted as initial claims at their first WCA reassessment on UC. open.substack.com/pub/inequali...
Maybe not if claimants moving to UC are counted as initial claims at their first WCA reassessment on UC. open.substack.com/pub/inequali...
Reposted by Paul Bivand
The first question to ask whenever you hear a statisical claim about sickness & disability benefit receipt is 'has @benbgeiger.bsky.social posted on this yet?' and if the answer is 'no' wait until he has before commenting. inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?
Yet again, the DWP has been publishing data in a misleading way, making it hard to know what's going on...
inequalities.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:37 PM
The first question to ask whenever you hear a statisical claim about sickness & disability benefit receipt is 'has @benbgeiger.bsky.social posted on this yet?' and if the answer is 'no' wait until he has before commenting. inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...