Louise Murphy
@louisemurphy.bsky.social
Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, focusing on employment, young people and health | views my own
Reposted by Louise Murphy
🚨 New Living Standards Outlook published today! 🚨
This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived.
@louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC
This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived.
@louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC
February 10, 2026 at 9:58 AM
🚨 New Living Standards Outlook published today! 🚨
This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived.
@louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC
This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived.
@louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC
And listen in to our Unsung Britain conference, focusing on the lives of the 13 million working-age families across the poorest half of the country, starting at 9am this morning: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/unsun...
Unsung Britain Final Conference • Resolution Foundation
The 13 million working-age families across the poorest half of the country, who at various times have been dubbed the ‘squeezed middle’, ‘just about managing families’ and ‘alarm clock Britain’ are…
www.resolutionfoundation.org
February 10, 2026 at 7:45 AM
And listen in to our Unsung Britain conference, focusing on the lives of the 13 million working-age families across the poorest half of the country, starting at 9am this morning: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/unsun...
Read more in our new Living Standards Outlook, published today: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
February 10, 2026 at 7:45 AM
Read more in our new Living Standards Outlook, published today: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
What would be a coherent strategy for improving living standards?
1. Prioritise stronger growth as the central objective...
But also:
2. Reform the tax and benefits system to share gains across the distribution
3. Ease cost of living pressures so that families feel improvements in the near term
1. Prioritise stronger growth as the central objective...
But also:
2. Reform the tax and benefits system to share gains across the distribution
3. Ease cost of living pressures so that families feel improvements in the near term
February 10, 2026 at 7:45 AM
What would be a coherent strategy for improving living standards?
1. Prioritise stronger growth as the central objective...
But also:
2. Reform the tax and benefits system to share gains across the distribution
3. Ease cost of living pressures so that families feel improvements in the near term
1. Prioritise stronger growth as the central objective...
But also:
2. Reform the tax and benefits system to share gains across the distribution
3. Ease cost of living pressures so that families feel improvements in the near term
However, as things stand the living standards outlook is set to worsen later in the decade.
This is unsurprising given the OBR's expectation of dismal real wage growth.
If wage growth turns out to be higher - e.g. as the Bank of England expects - this would be good news for living standards.
This is unsurprising given the OBR's expectation of dismal real wage growth.
If wage growth turns out to be higher - e.g. as the Bank of England expects - this would be good news for living standards.
February 10, 2026 at 7:45 AM
However, as things stand the living standards outlook is set to worsen later in the decade.
This is unsurprising given the OBR's expectation of dismal real wage growth.
If wage growth turns out to be higher - e.g. as the Bank of England expects - this would be good news for living standards.
This is unsurprising given the OBR's expectation of dismal real wage growth.
If wage growth turns out to be higher - e.g. as the Bank of England expects - this would be good news for living standards.
But we expect some good news over the coming year, especially for families in the lower half of the income distribution.
This strong income growth largely reflects the above-inflation boost to UC coming this April, and the ending of the two-child limit.
This strong income growth largely reflects the above-inflation boost to UC coming this April, and the ending of the two-child limit.
February 10, 2026 at 7:45 AM
But we expect some good news over the coming year, especially for families in the lower half of the income distribution.
This strong income growth largely reflects the above-inflation boost to UC coming this April, and the ending of the two-child limit.
This strong income growth largely reflects the above-inflation boost to UC coming this April, and the ending of the two-child limit.
Families across Britain have experienced two decades of poor income growth, and the outlook for the rest of the 2020s isn't much better.
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
February 10, 2026 at 7:45 AM
Families across Britain have experienced two decades of poor income growth, and the outlook for the rest of the 2020s isn't much better.
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Look, I know there's a lot going on in the news right now. But the MPC decision today was actually quite interesting!
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
February 5, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Look, I know there's a lot going on in the news right now. But the MPC decision today was actually quite interesting!
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Our new report on Universal Credit is out today. We worked with participants from @changingrealities.bsky.social to develop 16 recommendations for how outcomes for and experiences of UC claimants can be improved.
This thread has the details!
This thread has the details!
🧵 NEW: Our report 'Listen and learn' sets out how the Government should improve Universal Credit (UC) for the 15 million people who rely on it.
13 years after its roll-out began, it’s time to get UC right.
We've co-produced recommendations with @changingrealities.bsky.social participants 👇
13 years after its roll-out began, it’s time to get UC right.
We've co-produced recommendations with @changingrealities.bsky.social participants 👇
January 29, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Our new report on Universal Credit is out today. We worked with participants from @changingrealities.bsky.social to develop 16 recommendations for how outcomes for and experiences of UC claimants can be improved.
This thread has the details!
This thread has the details!
Reposted by Louise Murphy
The latest USoc wave lets us split out the Covid years from what came after.
So striking that they look the same!
Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
So striking that they look the same!
Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
January 15, 2026 at 1:53 PM
The latest USoc wave lets us split out the Covid years from what came after.
So striking that they look the same!
Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
So striking that they look the same!
Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Job opportunity - we need a fab new colleague to do quant research on work, welfare and mental health within
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
Postdoctoral Research Associate in Work, Welfare & Mental Health at King's College London
Apply now for the Postdoctoral Research Associate in Work, Welfare & Mental Health role on jobs.ac.uk - the leading job board for higher education jobs. View details.
www.jobs.ac.uk
January 16, 2026 at 9:14 AM
Job opportunity - we need a fab new colleague to do quant research on work, welfare and mental health within
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Today’s labour market stats show a weakening jobs market, with rising unemployment and flatlining real pay. Some @resolutionfoundation.org key takeaways from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵 ...
December 16, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Today’s labour market stats show a weakening jobs market, with rising unemployment and flatlining real pay. Some @resolutionfoundation.org key takeaways from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵 ...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Have written a piece teeing up tomorrow's labour market stats, pointing out the sort-of obvious - that we currently have a problem with unemployment (i.e. demand) not just participation (i.e. supply). www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Labour Market Outlook Q4 2025 • Resolution Foundation
Employment has fallen over the past two years and is substantially lower than it was before the pandemic. Perhaps surprisingly given its central place in policy debates, participation is essentially u...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
December 15, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Have written a piece teeing up tomorrow's labour market stats, pointing out the sort-of obvious - that we currently have a problem with unemployment (i.e. demand) not just participation (i.e. supply). www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
It's great that DWP is publishing this data, allowing us to better understand what is really going on.
But it shows that DWP has a new challenge on its hands: is it prepared enough to support the 1m people who were previously claiming ESA, many of whom have been out of work for a long time?
But it shows that DWP has a new challenge on its hands: is it prepared enough to support the 1m people who were previously claiming ESA, many of whom have been out of work for a long time?
December 11, 2025 at 4:37 PM
It's great that DWP is publishing this data, allowing us to better understand what is really going on.
But it shows that DWP has a new challenge on its hands: is it prepared enough to support the 1m people who were previously claiming ESA, many of whom have been out of work for a long time?
But it shows that DWP has a new challenge on its hands: is it prepared enough to support the 1m people who were previously claiming ESA, many of whom have been out of work for a long time?
Finally, migration from ESA to UC is also affecting the makeup of the UC Health group, since those who move from ESA to UC are more likely than other claimants to be in the LCWRA group (where they receive greater financial support from the benefits system and are not expected to look for work).
December 11, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Finally, migration from ESA to UC is also affecting the makeup of the UC Health group, since those who move from ESA to UC are more likely than other claimants to be in the LCWRA group (where they receive greater financial support from the benefits system and are not expected to look for work).
We see a similar trend when we look at Work Capability Assessments (WCAs).
We saw an uptick in the number of UC WCAs taking place each month during the pandemic period, mainly among new claimants.
But in recent months, the rise in UC WCAs reflects a surge in WCAs for people moving from ESA to UC.
We saw an uptick in the number of UC WCAs taking place each month during the pandemic period, mainly among new claimants.
But in recent months, the rise in UC WCAs reflects a surge in WCAs for people moving from ESA to UC.
December 11, 2025 at 4:37 PM
We see a similar trend when we look at Work Capability Assessments (WCAs).
We saw an uptick in the number of UC WCAs taking place each month during the pandemic period, mainly among new claimants.
But in recent months, the rise in UC WCAs reflects a surge in WCAs for people moving from ESA to UC.
We saw an uptick in the number of UC WCAs taking place each month during the pandemic period, mainly among new claimants.
But in recent months, the rise in UC WCAs reflects a surge in WCAs for people moving from ESA to UC.
But when we look at the increase in UC Health caseload *over the past year*, migration from ESA is doing more work.
More than two-thirds of the rise in caseload since September 2024 relates to those moving from ESA to UC (639k of the total 933k rise).
More than two-thirds of the rise in caseload since September 2024 relates to those moving from ESA to UC (639k of the total 933k rise).
December 11, 2025 at 4:37 PM
But when we look at the increase in UC Health caseload *over the past year*, migration from ESA is doing more work.
More than two-thirds of the rise in caseload since September 2024 relates to those moving from ESA to UC (639k of the total 933k rise).
More than two-thirds of the rise in caseload since September 2024 relates to those moving from ESA to UC (639k of the total 933k rise).
Since the start of 2020, the UC Health caseload has increased by 2.6m, and most of the rise relates to those who are *not* moving to UC straight from ESA (ie either new claimants, or people moving from other benefits).
December 11, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Since the start of 2020, the UC Health caseload has increased by 2.6m, and most of the rise relates to those who are *not* moving to UC straight from ESA (ie either new claimants, or people moving from other benefits).
Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA).
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
December 11, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA).
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
2: Reforms that improve the claimant experience do not appear to be intrinsically at odds with a desire to keep caseloads and costs under control. By 2025, there is little to suggest that the Scottish approach has led to either a marked increase or decrease in caseload or costs.
December 8, 2025 at 12:04 PM
2: Reforms that improve the claimant experience do not appear to be intrinsically at odds with a desire to keep caseloads and costs under control. By 2025, there is little to suggest that the Scottish approach has led to either a marked increase or decrease in caseload or costs.
There are two key takeaways for the Timms review.
1: Any new approach to disability benefits will take time to bed in, and will often incur additional costs in the short-term. For example, for both PIP in 2013 and ADP in 2022, there were blips in award rates in the early days.
1: Any new approach to disability benefits will take time to bed in, and will often incur additional costs in the short-term. For example, for both PIP in 2013 and ADP in 2022, there were blips in award rates in the early days.
December 8, 2025 at 12:04 PM
There are two key takeaways for the Timms review.
1: Any new approach to disability benefits will take time to bed in, and will often incur additional costs in the short-term. For example, for both PIP in 2013 and ADP in 2022, there were blips in award rates in the early days.
1: Any new approach to disability benefits will take time to bed in, and will often incur additional costs in the short-term. For example, for both PIP in 2013 and ADP in 2022, there were blips in award rates in the early days.
But it is not just the caseload that influences the overall cost of disability benefits: the average value of awards matters too.
By 2025, ADP is actually paid at lower rates on average than is the case for PIP, with fewer claimants receiving the more generous 'enhanced' payments.
By 2025, ADP is actually paid at lower rates on average than is the case for PIP, with fewer claimants receiving the more generous 'enhanced' payments.
December 8, 2025 at 12:04 PM
But it is not just the caseload that influences the overall cost of disability benefits: the average value of awards matters too.
By 2025, ADP is actually paid at lower rates on average than is the case for PIP, with fewer claimants receiving the more generous 'enhanced' payments.
By 2025, ADP is actually paid at lower rates on average than is the case for PIP, with fewer claimants receiving the more generous 'enhanced' payments.
Instead, the real trend that needs to be taken seriously is that the proportion of reviews that result in disability benefits being reduced or removed has fallen sharply across Britain.
Pre-pandemic, around two-in-five reviews had a negative outcome; by 2025 this is less than one-in-five.
Pre-pandemic, around two-in-five reviews had a negative outcome; by 2025 this is less than one-in-five.
December 8, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Instead, the real trend that needs to be taken seriously is that the proportion of reviews that result in disability benefits being reduced or removed has fallen sharply across Britain.
Pre-pandemic, around two-in-five reviews had a negative outcome; by 2025 this is less than one-in-five.
Pre-pandemic, around two-in-five reviews had a negative outcome; by 2025 this is less than one-in-five.
There have been concerns that Social Security Scotland's commitment to taking a “light-touch and person-centred approach“ to ADP reviews risks increasing costs.
But such concerns may have been overdone - the gap in review outcomes beteween ADP and PIP has narrowed dramatically in the past year.
But such concerns may have been overdone - the gap in review outcomes beteween ADP and PIP has narrowed dramatically in the past year.
December 8, 2025 at 12:04 PM
There have been concerns that Social Security Scotland's commitment to taking a “light-touch and person-centred approach“ to ADP reviews risks increasing costs.
But such concerns may have been overdone - the gap in review outcomes beteween ADP and PIP has narrowed dramatically in the past year.
But such concerns may have been overdone - the gap in review outcomes beteween ADP and PIP has narrowed dramatically in the past year.
Likewise, in the early days of ADP, the award rate (the proportion of applications that result in benefits being paid) was higher than for PIP.
But since 2022, the ADP award rate has fallen gradually, and by 2025 the ADP award rate is actually lower than the PIP award rate in England and Wales.
But since 2022, the ADP award rate has fallen gradually, and by 2025 the ADP award rate is actually lower than the PIP award rate in England and Wales.
December 8, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Likewise, in the early days of ADP, the award rate (the proportion of applications that result in benefits being paid) was higher than for PIP.
But since 2022, the ADP award rate has fallen gradually, and by 2025 the ADP award rate is actually lower than the PIP award rate in England and Wales.
But since 2022, the ADP award rate has fallen gradually, and by 2025 the ADP award rate is actually lower than the PIP award rate in England and Wales.