Louise Murphy
@louisemurphy.bsky.social
Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, focusing on employment, young people and health | views my own
Reposted by Louise Murphy
🚨 New Living Standards Outlook published today! 🚨
This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived.
@louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC
This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived.
@louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC
February 10, 2026 at 9:58 AM
🚨 New Living Standards Outlook published today! 🚨
This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived.
@louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC
This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived.
@louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC
Families across Britain have experienced two decades of poor income growth, and the outlook for the rest of the 2020s isn't much better.
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
February 10, 2026 at 7:45 AM
Families across Britain have experienced two decades of poor income growth, and the outlook for the rest of the 2020s isn't much better.
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Look, I know there's a lot going on in the news right now. But the MPC decision today was actually quite interesting!
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
February 5, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Look, I know there's a lot going on in the news right now. But the MPC decision today was actually quite interesting!
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Our new report on Universal Credit is out today. We worked with participants from @changingrealities.bsky.social to develop 16 recommendations for how outcomes for and experiences of UC claimants can be improved.
This thread has the details!
This thread has the details!
🧵 NEW: Our report 'Listen and learn' sets out how the Government should improve Universal Credit (UC) for the 15 million people who rely on it.
13 years after its roll-out began, it’s time to get UC right.
We've co-produced recommendations with @changingrealities.bsky.social participants 👇
13 years after its roll-out began, it’s time to get UC right.
We've co-produced recommendations with @changingrealities.bsky.social participants 👇
January 29, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Our new report on Universal Credit is out today. We worked with participants from @changingrealities.bsky.social to develop 16 recommendations for how outcomes for and experiences of UC claimants can be improved.
This thread has the details!
This thread has the details!
Reposted by Louise Murphy
The latest USoc wave lets us split out the Covid years from what came after.
So striking that they look the same!
Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
So striking that they look the same!
Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
January 15, 2026 at 1:53 PM
The latest USoc wave lets us split out the Covid years from what came after.
So striking that they look the same!
Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
So striking that they look the same!
Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Job opportunity - we need a fab new colleague to do quant research on work, welfare and mental health within
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
Postdoctoral Research Associate in Work, Welfare & Mental Health at King's College London
Apply now for the Postdoctoral Research Associate in Work, Welfare & Mental Health role on jobs.ac.uk - the leading job board for higher education jobs. View details.
www.jobs.ac.uk
January 16, 2026 at 9:14 AM
Job opportunity - we need a fab new colleague to do quant research on work, welfare and mental health within
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Today’s labour market stats show a weakening jobs market, with rising unemployment and flatlining real pay. Some @resolutionfoundation.org key takeaways from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵 ...
December 16, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Today’s labour market stats show a weakening jobs market, with rising unemployment and flatlining real pay. Some @resolutionfoundation.org key takeaways from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵 ...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Have written a piece teeing up tomorrow's labour market stats, pointing out the sort-of obvious - that we currently have a problem with unemployment (i.e. demand) not just participation (i.e. supply). www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Labour Market Outlook Q4 2025 • Resolution Foundation
Employment has fallen over the past two years and is substantially lower than it was before the pandemic. Perhaps surprisingly given its central place in policy debates, participation is essentially u...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
December 15, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Have written a piece teeing up tomorrow's labour market stats, pointing out the sort-of obvious - that we currently have a problem with unemployment (i.e. demand) not just participation (i.e. supply). www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA).
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
December 11, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA).
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
The Govt is undertaking the Timms review, assessing whether PIP is “fair and fit for the future”.
But what if we could learn lessons from a nation within the UK that had successfully implemented a new adult disability benefit just three years ago? 🤔
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
But what if we could learn lessons from a nation within the UK that had successfully implemented a new adult disability benefit just three years ago? 🤔
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Delivering dignity? • Resolution Foundation
When the Scottish Government introduced the Adult Disability Payment (ADP) in 2022 to replace Personal Independence Payment (PIP), it set out to do things differently. [i] Although the two benefits ha...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
December 8, 2025 at 12:04 PM
The Govt is undertaking the Timms review, assessing whether PIP is “fair and fit for the future”.
But what if we could learn lessons from a nation within the UK that had successfully implemented a new adult disability benefit just three years ago? 🤔
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
But what if we could learn lessons from a nation within the UK that had successfully implemented a new adult disability benefit just three years ago? 🤔
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one.
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
November 27, 2025 at 12:55 PM
This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one.
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
New net migration figures show that international net-migration falls to 204k (like 2000s average).
Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure.
This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data.
Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure.
This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data.
November 27, 2025 at 11:16 AM
New net migration figures show that international net-migration falls to 204k (like 2000s average).
Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure.
This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data.
Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure.
This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
The Chancellor has scrapped the two-child limit, benefitting more than half a million families.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
November 26, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The Chancellor has scrapped the two-child limit, benefitting more than half a million families.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
Reminder - increasing the number of face-to-face assessments for PIP is a red herring.
The success rates for face-to-face vs virtual assessments are very similar.
The success rates for face-to-face vs virtual assessments are very similar.
November 26, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Reminder - increasing the number of face-to-face assessments for PIP is a red herring.
The success rates for face-to-face vs virtual assessments are very similar.
The success rates for face-to-face vs virtual assessments are very similar.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
November 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
Reposted by Louise Murphy
The 2026 minimum wage rates have been announced:
NLW: £12.21➡️£12.71. (+4.1%)
18-20-yo rate: £10➡️£10.85. (+8.5%)
16-17-yo rate: £7.55➡️£8.00. (+6%)
Some context & thoughts on those uprating decisions:
NLW: £12.21➡️£12.71. (+4.1%)
18-20-yo rate: £10➡️£10.85. (+8.5%)
16-17-yo rate: £7.55➡️£8.00. (+6%)
Some context & thoughts on those uprating decisions:
November 25, 2025 at 10:29 PM
The 2026 minimum wage rates have been announced:
NLW: £12.21➡️£12.71. (+4.1%)
18-20-yo rate: £10➡️£10.85. (+8.5%)
16-17-yo rate: £7.55➡️£8.00. (+6%)
Some context & thoughts on those uprating decisions:
NLW: £12.21➡️£12.71. (+4.1%)
18-20-yo rate: £10➡️£10.85. (+8.5%)
16-17-yo rate: £7.55➡️£8.00. (+6%)
Some context & thoughts on those uprating decisions:
Great new blog from Alex.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
November 25, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Great new blog from Alex.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
NEW: Report from me and @nehaldavison.bsky.social on how and why boys from low-income families get left behind in their early years
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
The opportunity gap facing boys from low-income families at age 5 and beyond | Institute for Government
Early attainment gaps mean some boys don't just start behind, they stay behind.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 20, 2025 at 7:41 AM
NEW: Report from me and @nehaldavison.bsky.social on how and why boys from low-income families get left behind in their early years
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Unless DWP improves the clarity of its UC statistics by splitting out claimants who migrate from legacy benefits to UC vs those who make new claims, we're going to keep getting misleading headlines like this for the foreseeable future...
November 12, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Unless DWP improves the clarity of its UC statistics by splitting out claimants who migrate from legacy benefits to UC vs those who make new claims, we're going to keep getting misleading headlines like this for the foreseeable future...
Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside).
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside).
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
What should we make of the Mayfield 'Keep Britain Working' review, published this week?
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
From Review to reality • Resolution Foundation
There’s always a danger that official reviews end up generating a lot of talk and symbolic gestures, but don’t set out meaningful steps for change. That’s the challenge faced by the just-published rev...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 7, 2025 at 9:45 AM
What should we make of the Mayfield 'Keep Britain Working' review, published this week?
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Performance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for Government
It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 AM
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Rare opportunity. We are currently recruiting for a member of our senior leadership team to take forward our work on productivity and growth. Do get in touch if interested. www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...
Research Director • Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation is looking for an exceptional candidate to help lead our research team. This is an exciting opportunity to join the Foundation’s senior leadership as we seek to turn around t...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 27, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Rare opportunity. We are currently recruiting for a member of our senior leadership team to take forward our work on productivity and growth. Do get in touch if interested. www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...
There are close to one million young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) - but before we can fix this problem, we need to understand who these young people really are.
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
False starts • Resolution Foundation
Nearly one million young people are now NEET (not in education, employment or training). Tackling this crisis requires stronger enforcement of participation requirements for 16-17-year-olds and an exp...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 21, 2025 at 7:55 AM
There are close to one million young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) - but before we can fix this problem, we need to understand who these young people really are.
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...