Louise Murphy
@louisemurphy.bsky.social
Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, focusing on employment, young people and health | views my own
Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside).
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside).
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
What should we make of the Mayfield 'Keep Britain Working' review, published this week?
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
From Review to reality • Resolution Foundation
There’s always a danger that official reviews end up generating a lot of talk and symbolic gestures, but don’t set out meaningful steps for change. That’s the challenge faced by the just-published rev...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 7, 2025 at 9:45 AM
What should we make of the Mayfield 'Keep Britain Working' review, published this week?
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Performance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for Government
It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 AM
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Rare opportunity. We are currently recruiting for a member of our senior leadership team to take forward our work on productivity and growth. Do get in touch if interested. www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...
Research Director • Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation is looking for an exceptional candidate to help lead our research team. This is an exciting opportunity to join the Foundation’s senior leadership as we seek to turn around t...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 27, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Rare opportunity. We are currently recruiting for a member of our senior leadership team to take forward our work on productivity and growth. Do get in touch if interested. www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...
There are close to one million young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) - but before we can fix this problem, we need to understand who these young people really are.
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
False starts • Resolution Foundation
Nearly one million young people are now NEET (not in education, employment or training). Tackling this crisis requires stronger enforcement of participation requirements for 16-17-year-olds and an exp...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 21, 2025 at 7:55 AM
There are close to one million young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) - but before we can fix this problem, we need to understand who these young people really are.
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
It's increasingly perplexing that DWP aren't prioritising improving their stats to better reflect the move from legacy benefits to UC.
Until then, we'll keep getting misleading headlines like 'Long-term sickness claims rising by 5,000 a day' - you can't blame journalists when the stats are so bad!
Until then, we'll keep getting misleading headlines like 'Long-term sickness claims rising by 5,000 a day' - you can't blame journalists when the stats are so bad!
October 7, 2025 at 8:13 AM
It's increasingly perplexing that DWP aren't prioritising improving their stats to better reflect the move from legacy benefits to UC.
Until then, we'll keep getting misleading headlines like 'Long-term sickness claims rising by 5,000 a day' - you can't blame journalists when the stats are so bad!
Until then, we'll keep getting misleading headlines like 'Long-term sickness claims rising by 5,000 a day' - you can't blame journalists when the stats are so bad!
Reposted by Louise Murphy
New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system.
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
Children who receive support are more likely to be out-of-work or education, receiving out-of-work benefits, or receiving health-related benefits at age 22.
There is very little evidence on how systems of support could improve these long-term outcomes.
There is very little evidence on how systems of support could improve these long-term outcomes.
October 3, 2025 at 11:35 AM
New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system.
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
Good news that the Govt will offer more support to young people who are out of work.
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
September 29, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Good news that the Govt will offer more support to young people who are out of work.
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Inflation holding steady at 3.8% leaves the UK with the highest headline CPI inflation in the G7 and the joint highest (with Iceland, also 3.8% in Aug) among OECD rich countries. A chunk of this is policy related (NI rise, higher administered prices, eg water bills, and food packaging regulation).
September 17, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Inflation holding steady at 3.8% leaves the UK with the highest headline CPI inflation in the G7 and the joint highest (with Iceland, also 3.8% in Aug) among OECD rich countries. A chunk of this is policy related (NI rise, higher administered prices, eg water bills, and food packaging regulation).
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Today’s ONS data show a labour market continuing to cool, but there are signs of calming after a jobs crunch in the first part of 2025. Here is our thread (fom me and @charliemccurdy.bsky.social)
Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October
Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October
September 16, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Today’s ONS data show a labour market continuing to cool, but there are signs of calming after a jobs crunch in the first part of 2025. Here is our thread (fom me and @charliemccurdy.bsky.social)
Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October
Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October
Reposted by Louise Murphy
New piece out today on recent market moves.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2025 • Resolution Foundation
UK Government borrowing costs have once again been in the headlines. Recent moves have, however, been overblown: since benchmark 10-year yields peaked at post-financial-crisis highs of 4.9 per cent in...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
September 12, 2025 at 11:21 AM
New piece out today on recent market moves.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6]
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
September 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6]
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
New @resfoundation.bsky.social blog on what the latest Universal Credit Health data tells us about benefit claims across Britain
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...
What the latest Universal Credit Health data tells us about benefit claims across Britain • Resolution Foundation
New data out this week shows that the proportion of UC claimants in receipt of UC health continues to rise: over a third (37 per cent) of people in receipt of UC are in the health group, up from 32 pe...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
September 12, 2025 at 3:00 PM
New @resfoundation.bsky.social blog on what the latest Universal Credit Health data tells us about benefit claims across Britain
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...
New UC data out today shows that more than a third (37%) of all UC claimants are in receipt of UC health, up from 32% this time last year.
Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...
Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...
September 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
New UC data out today shows that more than a third (37%) of all UC claimants are in receipt of UC health, up from 32% this time last year.
Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...
Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...
This is excellent. There's now broad consensus that the current benefits system isn't doing a good enough job at supporting disabled people into employment, but until now there hasn't been much good evidence about what 'better employment support' actually looks like.
My final piece of work for @neweconomics.bsky.social was a collaboration with Camden Council & a brilliant team of staff there
We ran a test & learn pilot to explore how to increase voluntary engagement with employment support among ill & disabled residents 1/3
We ran a test & learn pilot to explore how to increase voluntary engagement with employment support among ill & disabled residents 1/3
August 29, 2025 at 4:49 PM
This is excellent. There's now broad consensus that the current benefits system isn't doing a good enough job at supporting disabled people into employment, but until now there hasn't been much good evidence about what 'better employment support' actually looks like.
Big moment - all PIP claimants in Scotland have been transferred to Adult Disability Payment.
Why does this matter?
1) UC (incl UC-health) is reserved to the UK Gov, while disability benefits are devolved. This makes the UK Gov's upcoming health benefit reform tricky
www.gov.scot/news/adult-d...
Why does this matter?
1) UC (incl UC-health) is reserved to the UK Gov, while disability benefits are devolved. This makes the UK Gov's upcoming health benefit reform tricky
www.gov.scot/news/adult-d...
Adult Disability Payment transfer complete
Delivering a new approach to disability assistance ‘rooted in compassion’.
www.gov.scot
August 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Big moment - all PIP claimants in Scotland have been transferred to Adult Disability Payment.
Why does this matter?
1) UC (incl UC-health) is reserved to the UK Gov, while disability benefits are devolved. This makes the UK Gov's upcoming health benefit reform tricky
www.gov.scot/news/adult-d...
Why does this matter?
1) UC (incl UC-health) is reserved to the UK Gov, while disability benefits are devolved. This makes the UK Gov's upcoming health benefit reform tricky
www.gov.scot/news/adult-d...
There are a few jobs going in the RF research team - more info here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...
Ready for your next step? We're hiring! 📣
If you have strong quantitative research skills and a commitment to raising living standards in the UK, you might be the right fit for our team.
Find out more about becoming an Economist or Research & Policy Analyst ⤵️ buff.ly/7MNZRR4
If you have strong quantitative research skills and a commitment to raising living standards in the UK, you might be the right fit for our team.
Find out more about becoming an Economist or Research & Policy Analyst ⤵️ buff.ly/7MNZRR4
August 26, 2025 at 3:03 PM
There are a few jobs going in the RF research team - more info here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...
The ONS released new NEETs data this morning, suggesting that almost a million (948k) 16-24-year-olds are not in education, employment or training.
Although LFS issues mean that we shouldn't put too much weight on these figures, there are reasons to be concerned about trends in youth employment...
Although LFS issues mean that we shouldn't put too much weight on these figures, there are reasons to be concerned about trends in youth employment...
August 21, 2025 at 9:07 AM
The ONS released new NEETs data this morning, suggesting that almost a million (948k) 16-24-year-olds are not in education, employment or training.
Although LFS issues mean that we shouldn't put too much weight on these figures, there are reasons to be concerned about trends in youth employment...
Although LFS issues mean that we shouldn't put too much weight on these figures, there are reasons to be concerned about trends in youth employment...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
We should not accept 1 in 8 of our 16-24 year olds shut out of learning or earning. Dreadful for young people, economy & society.
Purposeful government can make a difference - but it will require learning lessons, real focus & new resource. Me in the @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/97da...
Purposeful government can make a difference - but it will require learning lessons, real focus & new resource. Me in the @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/97da...
We must clear a path for young people outside full-time education
As GCSE results land, we should realise that training alongside decent work is a better next step for some 16-year-olds
www.ft.com
August 20, 2025 at 3:32 PM
We should not accept 1 in 8 of our 16-24 year olds shut out of learning or earning. Dreadful for young people, economy & society.
Purposeful government can make a difference - but it will require learning lessons, real focus & new resource. Me in the @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/97da...
Purposeful government can make a difference - but it will require learning lessons, real focus & new resource. Me in the @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/97da...
Great new paper looking at the first cohort of T level students:
T level students who progress to HE end up at lower quality unis/courses than students from other pathways
Unlike BTECs, disadvantaged students studying T levels were less likely to progress to HE than their non-disadvantaged peers
T level students who progress to HE end up at lower quality unis/courses than students from other pathways
Unlike BTECs, disadvantaged students studying T levels were less likely to progress to HE than their non-disadvantaged peers
Do students who follow the "traditional" education pathway (A levels to HE) fare better than those following "non-standard" vocational / mixed pathways - including the infamous T Level?
Our PhD student @robbiemaris.bsky.social
has the answers, in his new paper:
Our PhD student @robbiemaris.bsky.social
has the answers, in his new paper:
August 15, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Great new paper looking at the first cohort of T level students:
T level students who progress to HE end up at lower quality unis/courses than students from other pathways
Unlike BTECs, disadvantaged students studying T levels were less likely to progress to HE than their non-disadvantaged peers
T level students who progress to HE end up at lower quality unis/courses than students from other pathways
Unlike BTECs, disadvantaged students studying T levels were less likely to progress to HE than their non-disadvantaged peers
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...
August 14, 2025 at 6:16 AM
Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...
Lots of food for thought in this note about the risk of scrapping BTECs (a policy decision that doesn't get discussed enough imo).
It includes this great stat: a quarter of students now enter university with BTEC qualifications rather than A Levels etc!
www.sixthformcolleges.org/380/news-and...
It includes this great stat: a quarter of students now enter university with BTEC qualifications rather than A Levels etc!
www.sixthformcolleges.org/380/news-and...
Scrapping BTEC qualifications will lead to “qualifications gap” in key sectors, report finds
A new report has found that the government’s plan to scrap applied general qualifications (AGQs) such as BTECs, in order to direct more 16- to 1...
www.sixthformcolleges.org
August 12, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Lots of food for thought in this note about the risk of scrapping BTECs (a policy decision that doesn't get discussed enough imo).
It includes this great stat: a quarter of students now enter university with BTEC qualifications rather than A Levels etc!
www.sixthformcolleges.org/380/news-and...
It includes this great stat: a quarter of students now enter university with BTEC qualifications rather than A Levels etc!
www.sixthformcolleges.org/380/news-and...
Today’s labour market statistics show that the jobs market is continuing to loosen, with jobs, vacancies and pay growth all weakening.
Our @resfoundation.bsky.social take, from myself and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social, is below...
Our @resfoundation.bsky.social take, from myself and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social, is below...
August 12, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Today’s labour market statistics show that the jobs market is continuing to loosen, with jobs, vacancies and pay growth all weakening.
Our @resfoundation.bsky.social take, from myself and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social, is below...
Our @resfoundation.bsky.social take, from myself and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social, is below...
Great report on "the radical domestication of existence" - worth a read
Great new @ippr.org report from @sachahilhorst.bsky.social, making very clear the link between the decline of community spaces and the rise of the radical right. Sacha reimagines the 20th century miners' welfare fund as a model for reviving social infrastructure:
www.ippr.org/articles/pla...
www.ippr.org/articles/pla...
Places to come together: Rebuilding local solidarities against the far right | IPPR
In late July 2024, the seaside town of Southport in Merseyside burst into the national consciousness when it suffered two different, violent events in succ
www.ippr.org
July 29, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Great report on "the radical domestication of existence" - worth a read
The Government will struggle to reach its 80% employment target without getting more disabled people into work.
Here’s a thread – based on today’s @resfoundation.bsky.social report with @benbgeiger.bsky.social – on how better employer incentives can help get us there...
Here’s a thread – based on today’s @resfoundation.bsky.social report with @benbgeiger.bsky.social – on how better employer incentives can help get us there...
July 24, 2025 at 2:42 PM
The Government will struggle to reach its 80% employment target without getting more disabled people into work.
Here’s a thread – based on today’s @resfoundation.bsky.social report with @benbgeiger.bsky.social – on how better employer incentives can help get us there...
Here’s a thread – based on today’s @resfoundation.bsky.social report with @benbgeiger.bsky.social – on how better employer incentives can help get us there...