This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived.
@louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC
This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived.
@louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC
1. Prioritise stronger growth as the central objective...
But also:
2. Reform the tax and benefits system to share gains across the distribution
3. Ease cost of living pressures so that families feel improvements in the near term
1. Prioritise stronger growth as the central objective...
But also:
2. Reform the tax and benefits system to share gains across the distribution
3. Ease cost of living pressures so that families feel improvements in the near term
This is unsurprising given the OBR's expectation of dismal real wage growth.
If wage growth turns out to be higher - e.g. as the Bank of England expects - this would be good news for living standards.
This is unsurprising given the OBR's expectation of dismal real wage growth.
If wage growth turns out to be higher - e.g. as the Bank of England expects - this would be good news for living standards.
This strong income growth largely reflects the above-inflation boost to UC coming this April, and the ending of the two-child limit.
This strong income growth largely reflects the above-inflation boost to UC coming this April, and the ending of the two-child limit.
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
This thread has the details!
13 years after its roll-out began, it’s time to get UC right.
We've co-produced recommendations with @changingrealities.bsky.social participants 👇
This thread has the details!
So striking that they look the same!
Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
So striking that they look the same!
Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
But it shows that DWP has a new challenge on its hands: is it prepared enough to support the 1m people who were previously claiming ESA, many of whom have been out of work for a long time?
But it shows that DWP has a new challenge on its hands: is it prepared enough to support the 1m people who were previously claiming ESA, many of whom have been out of work for a long time?
We saw an uptick in the number of UC WCAs taking place each month during the pandemic period, mainly among new claimants.
But in recent months, the rise in UC WCAs reflects a surge in WCAs for people moving from ESA to UC.
We saw an uptick in the number of UC WCAs taking place each month during the pandemic period, mainly among new claimants.
But in recent months, the rise in UC WCAs reflects a surge in WCAs for people moving from ESA to UC.
More than two-thirds of the rise in caseload since September 2024 relates to those moving from ESA to UC (639k of the total 933k rise).
More than two-thirds of the rise in caseload since September 2024 relates to those moving from ESA to UC (639k of the total 933k rise).
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
1: Any new approach to disability benefits will take time to bed in, and will often incur additional costs in the short-term. For example, for both PIP in 2013 and ADP in 2022, there were blips in award rates in the early days.
1: Any new approach to disability benefits will take time to bed in, and will often incur additional costs in the short-term. For example, for both PIP in 2013 and ADP in 2022, there were blips in award rates in the early days.
By 2025, ADP is actually paid at lower rates on average than is the case for PIP, with fewer claimants receiving the more generous 'enhanced' payments.
By 2025, ADP is actually paid at lower rates on average than is the case for PIP, with fewer claimants receiving the more generous 'enhanced' payments.
Pre-pandemic, around two-in-five reviews had a negative outcome; by 2025 this is less than one-in-five.
Pre-pandemic, around two-in-five reviews had a negative outcome; by 2025 this is less than one-in-five.
But such concerns may have been overdone - the gap in review outcomes beteween ADP and PIP has narrowed dramatically in the past year.
But such concerns may have been overdone - the gap in review outcomes beteween ADP and PIP has narrowed dramatically in the past year.
But since 2022, the ADP award rate has fallen gradually, and by 2025 the ADP award rate is actually lower than the PIP award rate in England and Wales.
But since 2022, the ADP award rate has fallen gradually, and by 2025 the ADP award rate is actually lower than the PIP award rate in England and Wales.