Alex Clegg
@alexclegg.bsky.social
Economist at the Resolution Foundation, focusing on social security, poverty and living standards
Reposted by Alex Clegg
Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA).
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
December 11, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA).
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
What does the data tell us?
ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.
@lalithatry.bsky.social and I ceremoniously set the parameter for the two-child limit to 'off' in our default 'current policy' version of the IPPR tax benefit model the other day. Felt cathartic.
December 5, 2025 at 6:14 PM
@lalithatry.bsky.social and I ceremoniously set the parameter for the two-child limit to 'off' in our default 'current policy' version of the IPPR tax benefit model the other day. Felt cathartic.
The existence of the two child limit has, rightly but unfortunately, dominated poverty analysis for the last 8 years. Looking forward to doing this work in a post-two child limit world.
December 5, 2025 at 6:09 PM
The existence of the two child limit has, rightly but unfortunately, dominated poverty analysis for the last 8 years. Looking forward to doing this work in a post-two child limit world.
Our updated child poverty projections following the publication of the Strategy show a significant fall next year and a decline over the whole Parliament. Still more to be done, but this is a good achievement in the face of significant headwinds and a tight fiscal position
Updating our projections for the latest data and forecasts from the OBR, we project that child poverty rates will fall to 31 per cent by 2029-30, 3.5 percentage points lower than would have been the case in the absence of policy changes …
December 5, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Our updated child poverty projections following the publication of the Strategy show a significant fall next year and a decline over the whole Parliament. Still more to be done, but this is a good achievement in the face of significant headwinds and a tight fiscal position
Reposted by Alex Clegg
This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one.
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
November 27, 2025 at 12:55 PM
This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one.
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
See (much much) more analysis in our overnight report! www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Stairway to headroom • Resolution Foundation
The Chancellor’s second tax-rising budget arrived under dark clouds, but forecasts came in better than feared. But even though she was saved from the worst predictions of past weeks, the Chancellor st...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
See (much much) more analysis in our overnight report! www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Nevertheless, the Chancellor managed at this Budget to expand her fiscal headroom in a way that was progressive and boosted incomes for the poorest households. The announcement on the two-child limit in particular was extremely welcome.
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Nevertheless, the Chancellor managed at this Budget to expand her fiscal headroom in a way that was progressive and boosted incomes for the poorest households. The announcement on the two-child limit in particular was extremely welcome.
And despite the giveaways and U-turns, the outcome of the miserable productivity outlook and tax rises is continuing stagnation in overall living standards. Real Household Disposable Income growth across this Parliament is expected to be the second worst on record, beating only the last one
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
And despite the giveaways and U-turns, the outcome of the miserable productivity outlook and tax rises is continuing stagnation in overall living standards. Real Household Disposable Income growth across this Parliament is expected to be the second worst on record, beating only the last one
It is not clear where the Chancellor might look if further tightening is needed - a real possibility given rising unemployment and a weak outlook for productivity. A more consistent set of priorities would be welcome.
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
It is not clear where the Chancellor might look if further tightening is needed - a real possibility given rising unemployment and a weak outlook for productivity. A more consistent set of priorities would be welcome.
This points to a deeper confusion over who should bear the pain of fiscal consolidation. In Spring, the Chancellor's answer was disabled people; yesterday she asked everyone to pay a little more but especially richer households
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
This points to a deeper confusion over who should bear the pain of fiscal consolidation. In Spring, the Chancellor's answer was disabled people; yesterday she asked everyone to pay a little more but especially richer households
This picture is different from what it looked like after the Spring Statement, when the cumulative impacts of this Government's announcements were regressive overall. The change is driven by the 2-child limit repeal and the backtrack on planned cuts to PIP and UC-Health bsky.app/profile/alex...
At the Autumn budget the Govt said they wouldn't do the last Govt's WCA changes but would do their own changes to save the same amount of money, which was scored. We therefore analysed that as a cut made by this Govt, so it now disappears from our distributional chart of this Parliament's changes
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
This picture is different from what it looked like after the Spring Statement, when the cumulative impacts of this Government's announcements were regressive overall. The change is driven by the 2-child limit repeal and the backtrack on planned cuts to PIP and UC-Health bsky.app/profile/alex...
Zooming out, yesterday's announcements mean the distributional impact of all policies announced by this Government is now progressive: the bottom half lose 0.1% of the household income on average by 2029-30 from this Government's changes, compared to 1.4% for the top half
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Zooming out, yesterday's announcements mean the distributional impact of all policies announced by this Government is now progressive: the bottom half lose 0.1% of the household income on average by 2029-30 from this Government's changes, compared to 1.4% for the top half
Benefit changes since Autumn Budget 24 outweigh tax rises for half of households in the bottom half of the distribution, and two-thirds of the poorest decile. In contrast, 4/5 households in the top half, and almost all households in the richest decile will find themselves worse off overall
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Benefit changes since Autumn Budget 24 outweigh tax rises for half of households in the bottom half of the distribution, and two-thirds of the poorest decile. In contrast, 4/5 households in the top half, and almost all households in the richest decile will find themselves worse off overall
How has the Budget impacted living standards? The distributional impact of all tax/benefit changes since Autumn Budget 2024 is progressive:poorer households gain from 2-child limit repeal and UC boost, while richer households lose from threshold freezes and new property, dividend and savings taxes
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
How has the Budget impacted living standards? The distributional impact of all tax/benefit changes since Autumn Budget 2024 is progressive:poorer households gain from 2-child limit repeal and UC boost, while richer households lose from threshold freezes and new property, dividend and savings taxes
Not well understood that 6 in 10 families impacted by the two-child limit are in work, and that the vast majority have 3 or 4 children.
The Chancellor has scrapped the two-child limit, benefitting more than half a million families.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
November 26, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Not well understood that 6 in 10 families impacted by the two-child limit are in work, and that the vast majority have 3 or 4 children.
Reposted by Alex Clegg
Live posting about the speech feels slightly unnecessary when all the details are out. But I'm a sucker for tradition nonetheless.
November 26, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Live posting about the speech feels slightly unnecessary when all the details are out. But I'm a sucker for tradition nonetheless.
Reposted by Alex Clegg
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
November 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
Reposted by Alex Clegg
Is runaway welfare spending to blame for the Chancellor's fiscal challenges?
Hear from @alexclegg.bsky.social on why any claims that the Chancellor could avoid raising in the Budget could by cutting welfare should be scrutinised.
Hear from @alexclegg.bsky.social on why any claims that the Chancellor could avoid raising in the Budget could by cutting welfare should be scrutinised.
November 25, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Is runaway welfare spending to blame for the Chancellor's fiscal challenges?
Hear from @alexclegg.bsky.social on why any claims that the Chancellor could avoid raising in the Budget could by cutting welfare should be scrutinised.
Hear from @alexclegg.bsky.social on why any claims that the Chancellor could avoid raising in the Budget could by cutting welfare should be scrutinised.
Inevitably, there are already arguments that the Chancellor should cut welfare spending instead of raising taxes tomorrow. But is welfare spending really 'out of control'?
Here's the facts:
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/is-w...
Here's the facts:
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/is-w...
Is welfare spending ‘out of control’? • Resolution Foundation
The run up to this Budget has seen more than its fair share of rumours, leaks, briefings and counter-briefings. But if there’s one thing we know for sure, it is that tax rises are coming. The public f...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 25, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Inevitably, there are already arguments that the Chancellor should cut welfare spending instead of raising taxes tomorrow. But is welfare spending really 'out of control'?
Here's the facts:
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/is-w...
Here's the facts:
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/is-w...
But for entitlement-based support like Council Tax Reduction, localisation is unlikely to improve on a centrally-designed scheme and can lead to unfairness, inefficiency and arbitrary hardship.
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
But for entitlement-based support like Council Tax Reduction, localisation is unlikely to improve on a centrally-designed scheme and can lead to unfairness, inefficiency and arbitrary hardship.
The Government should also be clear that discretionary crisis support cannot be expected to fully make up for shortfalls in support in the UK-wide, entitlement-based social security system
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
The Government should also be clear that discretionary crisis support cannot be expected to fully make up for shortfalls in support in the UK-wide, entitlement-based social security system
Overall, social security support can benefit from localisation but it should only be done when the advantages of local delivery are clear and realizable. For discretionary support, this means protected funding and clear but not constraining guidance from central government.
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Overall, social security support can benefit from localisation but it should only be done when the advantages of local delivery are clear and realizable. For discretionary support, this means protected funding and clear but not constraining guidance from central government.
This would bring CTR in England in line with the schemes in Scotland and Wales, would close one of the gaps in available support that has opened up as a result of country-level devolution, and make Council Tax Reduction equitable across Great Britain and between working- and pension-age families.
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
This would bring CTR in England in line with the schemes in Scotland and Wales, would close one of the gaps in available support that has opened up as a result of country-level devolution, and make Council Tax Reduction equitable across Great Britain and between working- and pension-age families.
We estimate that centralising CTR under the current default scheme, which mirrors the old Council Tax Benefit and covers up to 100 per cent of Council Tax liability, would cost around £400 million in higher support in 2029-30 compared to the current funding model
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
We estimate that centralising CTR under the current default scheme, which mirrors the old Council Tax Benefit and covers up to 100 per cent of Council Tax liability, would cost around £400 million in higher support in 2029-30 compared to the current funding model