Alex Clegg
@alexclegg.bsky.social
Economist at the Resolution Foundation, focusing on social security, poverty and living standards
So, while there has been a rise in people claiming incapacity benefits in the last few years, the uptick in the increase beginning in 2024 does appear to be a result of the start of previous ESA recipients being migrated to UC.
November 11, 2025 at 4:45 PM
So, while there has been a rise in people claiming incapacity benefits in the last few years, the uptick in the increase beginning in 2024 does appear to be a result of the start of previous ESA recipients being migrated to UC.
This means that the claimants most likely to be working were mostly migrated to UC at the beginning of the programme in 2023, and the claimants most likely to be not working due to health reasons were migrated towards the end
November 11, 2025 at 4:45 PM
This means that the claimants most likely to be working were mostly migrated to UC at the beginning of the programme in 2023, and the claimants most likely to be not working due to health reasons were migrated towards the end
New Universal Credit statistics today show the % of claimants in the ‘no work requirements’ conditionality group has continued to rise to 49%, and the proportion in work has fallen to 33%. This is likely to be written up as ‘a rise in claimants not required to work’, but context is very important! 🧵
November 11, 2025 at 4:45 PM
New Universal Credit statistics today show the % of claimants in the ‘no work requirements’ conditionality group has continued to rise to 49%, and the proportion in work has fallen to 33%. This is likely to be written up as ‘a rise in claimants not required to work’, but context is very important! 🧵
The status quo would leave this Government on track for the worst performance on child poverty of any Labour Government in 60 years. Fully scrapping the 2-child limit is essential to get child poverty falling, but they would need to go further to guarantee success against uncertain forecasts.
October 30, 2025 at 9:09 AM
The status quo would leave this Government on track for the worst performance on child poverty of any Labour Government in 60 years. Fully scrapping the 2-child limit is essential to get child poverty falling, but they would need to go further to guarantee success against uncertain forecasts.
These 3 reforms together would be a powerful programme to reduce child poverty over the Parliament. We estimate they would drive down child poverty rates from 31% in 2024-25 to 29.5% in 2029-30, equivalent to 660,000 fewer children in poverty in 2029-30 than would be the case absent of any action
October 30, 2025 at 9:09 AM
These 3 reforms together would be a powerful programme to reduce child poverty over the Parliament. We estimate they would drive down child poverty rates from 31% in 2024-25 to 29.5% in 2029-30, equivalent to 660,000 fewer children in poverty in 2029-30 than would be the case absent of any action
However, our projections show all of these partial-repeal alternatives would leave child poverty rates higher at the end of the forecast period than at the beginning (just under 32 per cent compared to just under 31 per cent in 2024-25)
October 30, 2025 at 9:09 AM
However, our projections show all of these partial-repeal alternatives would leave child poverty rates higher at the end of the forecast period than at the beginning (just under 32 per cent compared to just under 31 per cent in 2024-25)
The Child Poverty Strategy is finally coming next month. There have already been welcome announcements on extending Free School Meals and over-indexing the UC standard allowance, but our latest projections show these are not enough to prevent child poverty reaching a record high in 2029-30
October 30, 2025 at 9:09 AM
The Child Poverty Strategy is finally coming next month. There have already been welcome announcements on extending Free School Meals and over-indexing the UC standard allowance, but our latest projections show these are not enough to prevent child poverty reaching a record high in 2029-30
And none of the rumoured options is as cost-effective in lifting children out of poverty as fully scrapping the two-child limit, which would cost £7,480 per child lifted out of poverty (the other options range from £7,540 to £10,520.
October 1, 2025 at 11:26 AM
And none of the rumoured options is as cost-effective in lifting children out of poverty as fully scrapping the two-child limit, which would cost £7,480 per child lifted out of poverty (the other options range from £7,540 to £10,520.
And data on ethnicity of affected households suggests Asian and Black families are over-represented among those affected by the two-child limit, though the big caveat here is that 37% reported their ethnicity as other or did not specify
July 14, 2025 at 10:26 AM
And data on ethnicity of affected households suggests Asian and Black families are over-represented among those affected by the two-child limit, though the big caveat here is that 37% reported their ethnicity as other or did not specify
Data on the age of the youngest child in affected households reminds us that this is a policy that currently affects young children, due to the nature of the roll-out:
July 14, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Data on the age of the youngest child in affected households reminds us that this is a policy that currently affects young children, due to the nature of the roll-out:
40 per cent of households affected by the two-child limit are receiving a health or disability benefit, and 1 in 4 affected households has a child who is receiving a disability benefit or is blind
July 14, 2025 at 10:26 AM
40 per cent of households affected by the two-child limit are receiving a health or disability benefit, and 1 in 4 affected households has a child who is receiving a disability benefit or is blind
59 per cent of households affected by the two-child limit have at least one person in work, and we now have data on affected households' conditionality groups, which shows 21% in the 'Working - no requirements' group, which generally means working full time.
July 14, 2025 at 10:26 AM
59 per cent of households affected by the two-child limit have at least one person in work, and we now have data on affected households' conditionality groups, which shows 21% in the 'Working - no requirements' group, which generally means working full time.
450,000 households and more than 1.6 million children were affected by the two-child limit in April 2025, an increase of 13,000 households and 35,000 children compared to April 2024
July 14, 2025 at 10:26 AM
450,000 households and more than 1.6 million children were affected by the two-child limit in April 2025, an increase of 13,000 households and 35,000 children compared to April 2024
And we now have data on ethnicity of affected households. This shows Asian and Black families are slightly over-represented compared to the population, but the big caveat is nearly 4 in 10 affected households either didn't report their ethnicity or reported it as 'Other'
July 10, 2025 at 4:01 PM
And we now have data on ethnicity of affected households. This shows Asian and Black families are slightly over-represented compared to the population, but the big caveat is nearly 4 in 10 affected households either didn't report their ethnicity or reported it as 'Other'
Looking at the age of affected household's youngest child reminds us that the policy currently hits those with young children due to the nature of the roll-out. And strikingly, 47 per cent of households affected by the two-child limit have not had a child while they were claiming Universal Credit
July 10, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Looking at the age of affected household's youngest child reminds us that the policy currently hits those with young children due to the nature of the roll-out. And strikingly, 47 per cent of households affected by the two-child limit have not had a child while they were claiming Universal Credit
182,000 (40 per cent) of households affected by the two-child limit are receiving a health or disability benefit, and 113,000 have a child who is receiving a disability benefit or is blind
July 10, 2025 at 4:01 PM
182,000 (40 per cent) of households affected by the two-child limit are receiving a health or disability benefit, and 113,000 have a child who is receiving a disability benefit or is blind
59 per cent of affected households have at least one person in work, and we now have breakdowns by UC conditionality group, which show 21 per cent of affected households are in the 'Working - no requirements' group, which generally means working full-time.
July 10, 2025 at 4:01 PM
59 per cent of affected households have at least one person in work, and we now have breakdowns by UC conditionality group, which show 21 per cent of affected households are in the 'Working - no requirements' group, which generally means working full-time.
And although the Government insisted that the new policy is “targeted”, nearly half (43%) of those with reinstated payments are in the top half of the income distribution.
June 10, 2025 at 8:57 AM
And although the Government insisted that the new policy is “targeted”, nearly half (43%) of those with reinstated payments are in the top half of the income distribution.
So who gains? On average, the first 8 deciles will gain a similar amount in cash terms, but this is worth more as a % of income to poorer pensioners. Pensioners in the bottom tenth will see income rise by nearly 3%, compared to about 0.5% for those in the middle
June 10, 2025 at 8:57 AM
So who gains? On average, the first 8 deciles will gain a similar amount in cash terms, but this is worth more as a % of income to poorer pensioners. Pensioners in the bottom tenth will see income rise by nearly 3%, compared to about 0.5% for those in the middle
And conversations with people on low incomes suggested awareness of locally provided support is low.
May 22, 2025 at 12:22 PM
And conversations with people on low incomes suggested awareness of locally provided support is low.
Another problematic pattern is that nearly two-thirds of HSF spending is provided as vouchers, which can be inefficient. Recipients spoke of their preference for cash, which gives them more choice and is less stigmatising.
May 22, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Another problematic pattern is that nearly two-thirds of HSF spending is provided as vouchers, which can be inefficient. Recipients spoke of their preference for cash, which gives them more choice and is less stigmatising.
This was echoed in interviews with LAs:
May 22, 2025 at 12:22 PM
This was echoed in interviews with LAs:
There has been variation in what the HSF has been spent on across LAs, but there are some potentially problematic patterns. In HSF 3 and 4, Free School Meals support in the holidays became the largest category of HSF spending after it was newly added as a permitted category.
May 22, 2025 at 12:22 PM
There has been variation in what the HSF has been spent on across LAs, but there are some potentially problematic patterns. In HSF 3 and 4, Free School Meals support in the holidays became the largest category of HSF spending after it was newly added as a permitted category.
And short-term renewals have created issues for local authorities administering the scheme. Of the 7 waves of the HSF, only two were announced more than a month before the funding was allocated, giving LAs little time to plan the allocation of awards and making it hard to retain administrative staff
May 22, 2025 at 12:22 PM
And short-term renewals have created issues for local authorities administering the scheme. Of the 7 waves of the HSF, only two were announced more than a month before the funding was allocated, giving LAs little time to plan the allocation of awards and making it hard to retain administrative staff