Declan Gaffney
@greyskiesthinking.bsky.social
Research, analysis & grey-skies thinking on labour markets, social security, public finance & equality. Usual disclaimer. Cheap foreign labour 🇮🇪. Profile pic is Takashi Shimura with Toshiro Mifune in Stray Dog (Akira Kurosawa, 1949).
Pinned
If all young people deferred having children until they could meet the entire cost of raising them, there'd be no workers to pay for pensions in thirty years time.
This made me laugh out loud, which *sweeping gesture* is not a frequent occurrence these days.
in this week's newsletter! my very, very hot take, which is that one of the reasons politics has got bad is that our politicians have got.......too good - do read it, see what you think, shout at me, etc youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/politics-i... [free edition!]
February 6, 2026 at 1:20 PM
This made me laugh out loud, which *sweeping gesture* is not a frequent occurrence these days.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
5/5 PMs with approval ratings of measles isn't just a feature of failed leadership. It's Brexit Britain. There's no money for anything people want and were promised they would have, and no one can blame the people who got us into this mess because they got 52% of the vote (let alone reverse it).
Starmer's reported condition - incredibly unpopular, shorn of authority, probably un-reelectable and yet will stagger on for want of an alternative - is just the new normal of how Britain is governed. It was also true for two-thirds of May's premiership, half of Johnson's and all of Sunak's.
February 6, 2026 at 12:10 PM
5/5 PMs with approval ratings of measles isn't just a feature of failed leadership. It's Brexit Britain. There's no money for anything people want and were promised they would have, and no one can blame the people who got us into this mess because they got 52% of the vote (let alone reverse it).
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Starmer's reported condition - incredibly unpopular, shorn of authority, probably un-reelectable and yet will stagger on for want of an alternative - is just the new normal of how Britain is governed. It was also true for two-thirds of May's premiership, half of Johnson's and all of Sunak's.
February 6, 2026 at 11:36 AM
Starmer's reported condition - incredibly unpopular, shorn of authority, probably un-reelectable and yet will stagger on for want of an alternative - is just the new normal of how Britain is governed. It was also true for two-thirds of May's premiership, half of Johnson's and all of Sunak's.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
I hope the abyss in @stephenkb.bsky.social's newsletter becomes a returning character
February 6, 2026 at 11:20 AM
I hope the abyss in @stephenkb.bsky.social's newsletter becomes a returning character
For those of us of a certain age this would be a big scalp for the Epstein files.
Affaire Epstein : Jack Lang convoqué par le Quai d’Orsay dimanche, l’exécutif s’attend à une résistance du président de l’Institut du monde arabe
Affaire Epstein : Jack Lang convoqué par le Quai d’Orsay dimanche, l’exécutif s’attend à une résistance du président de l’Institut du monde arabe
Si l’Elysée et Matignon n’ont pas à se prononcer sur le fond de l’affaire, le couple exécutif attend des explications sur les mails mettant en cause l’ancien ministre socialiste dans les millions de documents liés à l’affaire Epstein.
www.lemonde.fr
February 6, 2026 at 9:39 AM
For those of us of a certain age this would be a big scalp for the Epstein files.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
🔴 BREAKING: Labour Together paid controversial PR firm £30k to investigate journalists who were digging into how its undeclared funding
Reporters from Sunday Times, Guardian and other outlets targetted
*And* Morgan McSweeney knew about it
Full story:
democracyforsale.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
Reporters from Sunday Times, Guardian and other outlets targetted
*And* Morgan McSweeney knew about it
Full story:
democracyforsale.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
BREAKING: McSweeney’s think tank paid PR firm to investigate journalists
Labour Together put private investigators onto journalists writing about its funding. Starmer's right-hand man knew.
democracyforsale.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 8:01 PM
🔴 BREAKING: Labour Together paid controversial PR firm £30k to investigate journalists who were digging into how its undeclared funding
Reporters from Sunday Times, Guardian and other outlets targetted
*And* Morgan McSweeney knew about it
Full story:
democracyforsale.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
Reporters from Sunday Times, Guardian and other outlets targetted
*And* Morgan McSweeney knew about it
Full story:
democracyforsale.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Make social media platforms criminally accountable for sex abuse images that they allow to be posted.
Please support Labour’s bill
Sign below 👇
Please support Labour’s bill
Sign below 👇
Social media platforms need to be held criminally accountable for sexual abuse images.
X, Meta, TikTok and Google cannot shirk their responsibility!!
Contact your TD and ask them to support Labour's Bill to take on the platforms!
🔗 labour.ie/ban-ai-gener...
X, Meta, TikTok and Google cannot shirk their responsibility!!
Contact your TD and ask them to support Labour's Bill to take on the platforms!
🔗 labour.ie/ban-ai-gener...
Ban AI generated intimate images - The Labour Party
Ban AI generated intimate images - The Labour PartyAdvances in AI mean real harm is happening right now and our laws are not keeping pace with the creation and sharing of intimate images made to look ...
labour.ie
February 5, 2026 at 7:20 PM
Make social media platforms criminally accountable for sex abuse images that they allow to be posted.
Please support Labour’s bill
Sign below 👇
Please support Labour’s bill
Sign below 👇
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Even when there is no political scandal, voters often (overall) think the PM/ministers should resign. The numbers here for Labour supporters are decidedly lukewarm, though,
By 50% to 24%, Britons say Keir Starmer should step down as prime minister
2024 Labour voters are split, with 37% wanting him to stand down and 40% wanting him to stay
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
2024 Labour voters are split, with 37% wanting him to stand down and 40% wanting him to stay
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
February 5, 2026 at 5:44 PM
Even when there is no political scandal, voters often (overall) think the PM/ministers should resign. The numbers here for Labour supporters are decidedly lukewarm, though,
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
- I was lying in bed the other night
- was you
- yes Dud, and I heard this tap, tap, tap on the window
- who was it?
- bloody Jim Pickard of the FT
- no
- yes Dud, "Peter, Peter" he said, "tell me about Jeffrey Epstein"
- and what did you say?
- I told him to 'fuck off'
- that told him
- it did Dud
- was you
- yes Dud, and I heard this tap, tap, tap on the window
- who was it?
- bloody Jim Pickard of the FT
- no
- yes Dud, "Peter, Peter" he said, "tell me about Jeffrey Epstein"
- and what did you say?
- I told him to 'fuck off'
- that told him
- it did Dud
February 5, 2026 at 3:09 PM
- I was lying in bed the other night
- was you
- yes Dud, and I heard this tap, tap, tap on the window
- who was it?
- bloody Jim Pickard of the FT
- no
- yes Dud, "Peter, Peter" he said, "tell me about Jeffrey Epstein"
- and what did you say?
- I told him to 'fuck off'
- that told him
- it did Dud
- was you
- yes Dud, and I heard this tap, tap, tap on the window
- who was it?
- bloody Jim Pickard of the FT
- no
- yes Dud, "Peter, Peter" he said, "tell me about Jeffrey Epstein"
- and what did you say?
- I told him to 'fuck off'
- that told him
- it did Dud
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
One person has died and three others have been taken to hospital after a Bus Éireann bus crashed in Dublin city centre this afternoon. jrnl.ie/6948011
Emergency services responding after double decker bus crashes in Dublin city centre
Talbot Street is closed from Gardiner Street and Marlborough Street is closed from Cathal Brugha Street.
jrnl.ie
February 5, 2026 at 2:16 PM
One person has died and three others have been taken to hospital after a Bus Éireann bus crashed in Dublin city centre this afternoon. jrnl.ie/6948011
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Child poverty is the fault of the parents, says the Labour Home Secretary. Or the fault of the children for existing. I'm not sure but it seems to be one of the two.
"Are you worried that there will be an impact on child poverty?"
Home Secretary "This is a system of economic migration ... they chose to bring their families with them" is the underlying principle.
Home Secretary "This is a system of economic migration ... they chose to bring their families with them" is the underlying principle.
February 5, 2026 at 2:09 PM
Child poverty is the fault of the parents, says the Labour Home Secretary. Or the fault of the children for existing. I'm not sure but it seems to be one of the two.
I'd like to say 'Not my circus, not my monkeys' but my bank statement reminds me I'm still a member. 🇮🇪
Keir Starmer attacks the racism of Reform and Matt Goodwin but then adds that "Britain has also been let down by a mindset on the left of politics that is too slow to defend core British values"
February 5, 2026 at 2:01 PM
I'd like to say 'Not my circus, not my monkeys' but my bank statement reminds me I'm still a member. 🇮🇪
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
There are no uniquely British values. A silly and nebulous idea
Keir Starmer attacks the racism of Reform and Matt Goodwin but then adds that "Britain has also been let down by a mindset on the left of politics that is too slow to defend core British values"
February 5, 2026 at 11:33 AM
There are no uniquely British values. A silly and nebulous idea
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
'...it is naive to think that supporting the Minnesota protests or interfering with ICE arrests is simply and indisputably “the Christian thing to do.”'
The Spectator instructing American bishops on the meaning of Catholicism.
The Spectator instructing American bishops on the meaning of Catholicism.
The Catholic Church is getting swept away by ICE outrage
Cardinal Joseph Tobin called for the defunding of ICE by lawmakers during an interfaith prayer livestream on Sunday
spectator.com
February 5, 2026 at 12:04 AM
'...it is naive to think that supporting the Minnesota protests or interfering with ICE arrests is simply and indisputably “the Christian thing to do.”'
The Spectator instructing American bishops on the meaning of Catholicism.
The Spectator instructing American bishops on the meaning of Catholicism.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
I just re-read, for the first time for years, the memoir I wrote for the British Academy for Jerry Cohen, shortly after his sudden, shocking, death in 2009. Here it is a Word file for those who don't have access to the British Academy volume.
www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~uctyjow/CPB...
www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~uctyjow/CPB...
www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk
February 4, 2026 at 7:42 AM
I just re-read, for the first time for years, the memoir I wrote for the British Academy for Jerry Cohen, shortly after his sudden, shocking, death in 2009. Here it is a Word file for those who don't have access to the British Academy volume.
www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~uctyjow/CPB...
www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~uctyjow/CPB...
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
This is quite spectacularly silly.
All bicycles included in draft plan for mandatory helmets and high-vis, Department confirms irishcycle.com/2026/02/04/a...
All bicycles included in draft plan for mandatory helmets and high-vis, Department confirms
— Plan was expected to be put to the Cabinet today before it was withdrawn from the meeting of Government Ministers. A reported plan by Ireland’s Government to make the wearing of helme…
irishcycle.com
February 4, 2026 at 10:15 PM
This is quite spectacularly silly.
PSA: if you want to repost a thread, you only need to repost the first post. That is the point of threads. You don't need to clog your followers' timeline with every single post, however interesting.
February 4, 2026 at 9:55 PM
PSA: if you want to repost a thread, you only need to repost the first post. That is the point of threads. You don't need to clog your followers' timeline with every single post, however interesting.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Weird and almost universal revisionism today. Even at the time, it was pretty clear that Mandelson wasn't appointed *despite* his dodgy links but *because* of them. Trump's Washington is a dirty swamp. Mandelson was deemed a man able to swim in it. This wasn't a secret. Everybody said it out loud.
February 4, 2026 at 8:55 PM
Weird and almost universal revisionism today. Even at the time, it was pretty clear that Mandelson wasn't appointed *despite* his dodgy links but *because* of them. Trump's Washington is a dirty swamp. Mandelson was deemed a man able to swim in it. This wasn't a secret. Everybody said it out loud.
👂👂
A 3LP/2CD Cecil Taylor live set — FRAGMENTS: THE COMPLETE 1969 SALLE PLEYEL CONCERTS — will be released in April. Two full concerts, 92 minutes and 50 minutes long respectively, featuring Jimmy Lyons, Sam Rivers, and Andrew Cyrille. This one will blow your house down. (I wrote the liner notes.)
February 4, 2026 at 8:32 PM
👂👂
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
My (young) child now sees iconic pieces of cinematography or photography and dismisses them knowingly as "AI" because the model has been trained on these iconic images and he now doubts their veracity in advance.
February 4, 2026 at 4:22 PM
My (young) child now sees iconic pieces of cinematography or photography and dismisses them knowingly as "AI" because the model has been trained on these iconic images and he now doubts their veracity in advance.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Why the "earned settlement" proposals will harm not help integration and social cohesion (and, I'd add, the economy).
This by @colinyeo.bsky.social should be read by every Labour MP...
wewantedworkers.substack.com/p/labours-ea...
This by @colinyeo.bsky.social should be read by every Labour MP...
wewantedworkers.substack.com/p/labours-ea...
Labour's earned settlement proposals: destroying a British success story
The proposals confuse immigration policy with citizenship policy. They will harm not help integration.
wewantedworkers.substack.com
February 4, 2026 at 3:36 PM
Why the "earned settlement" proposals will harm not help integration and social cohesion (and, I'd add, the economy).
This by @colinyeo.bsky.social should be read by every Labour MP...
wewantedworkers.substack.com/p/labours-ea...
This by @colinyeo.bsky.social should be read by every Labour MP...
wewantedworkers.substack.com/p/labours-ea...
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
February 4, 2026 at 11:13 AM
Very good piece. The earned settlement proposals are not about immigration policy, they are about integration, which they will undermine.
First post from me for a while on my occasional Substack, about Labour's earned settlement proposals and the damage they will do. open.substack.com/pub/wewanted...
February 4, 2026 at 3:41 PM
Very good piece. The earned settlement proposals are not about immigration policy, they are about integration, which they will undermine.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
This might be the thing that kills him.
The people of Minneapolis have been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
The first time a city's population has ever been nominated.
www.newsweek.com/minneapolis-...
The first time a city's population has ever been nominated.
www.newsweek.com/minneapolis-...
February 4, 2026 at 1:16 PM
This might be the thing that kills him.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
This breed of 'utterly appalled' politicians should be confronted, relentlessly w Norman Finkelstein take on Epstein and his friends, in 2015.
February 4, 2026 at 12:19 PM
This breed of 'utterly appalled' politicians should be confronted, relentlessly w Norman Finkelstein take on Epstein and his friends, in 2015.