Declan Gaffney
@greyskiesthinking.bsky.social
Research, analysis & grey-skies thinking on labour markets, social security, public finance & equality. Usual disclaimer. Cheap foreign labour 🇮🇪. Profile pic is Takashi Shimura with Toshiro Mifune in Stray Dog (Akira Kurosawa, 1949).
Pinned
If all young people deferred having children until they could meet the entire cost of raising them, there'd be no workers to pay for pensions in thirty years time.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
One to look out for - Family Resources Survey going to be linked to admin & could make a substantive difference to relative poverty measures. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Is child poverty really as widespread as official figures show?
Labour has staked its credibility on cutting it, so it’s worth straightening out the data
www.thetimes.com
February 8, 2026 at 2:35 PM
One to look out for - Family Resources Survey going to be linked to admin & could make a substantive difference to relative poverty measures. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
True. A large majority of people with dependent children are net recipients from the tax, benefit and public services system already, as shown by ONS's Effect of Taxes and Benefits on Household Income reports. The opposite holds for people without children.
People with no children already pay more tax, because we get fewer transfers from the state. Think of just a mother's medical bills, or one year's school tuition. Women without children also do more care work than childless men, so we're probably the biggest net contributors to the welfare state.
Reform by-election candidate suggested people who don’t have kids should pay more tax
Exclusive: The Reform politician’s suggestion would ‘punish millions of women and strip them of their basic dignity to choose’, Labour’s deputy leader has warned
www.independent.co.uk
February 8, 2026 at 12:02 PM
True. A large majority of people with dependent children are net recipients from the tax, benefit and public services system already, as shown by ONS's Effect of Taxes and Benefits on Household Income reports. The opposite holds for people without children.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Happy #SuperbOwl 🦉 Sunday to all who celebrate.
February 8, 2026 at 11:39 AM
Happy #SuperbOwl 🦉 Sunday to all who celebrate.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Hate-filled fake videos about London are everywhere. We've obtained a recording of a TikToker confessing to secretly filming Londoners in their homes for clicks.
He says it's not political. He just wants to make money from far-right anger.
Read what he says: www.londoncentric.media/p/london-tik...
He says it's not political. He just wants to make money from far-right anger.
Read what he says: www.londoncentric.media/p/london-tik...
February 8, 2026 at 7:44 AM
Hate-filled fake videos about London are everywhere. We've obtained a recording of a TikToker confessing to secretly filming Londoners in their homes for clicks.
He says it's not political. He just wants to make money from far-right anger.
Read what he says: www.londoncentric.media/p/london-tik...
He says it's not political. He just wants to make money from far-right anger.
Read what he says: www.londoncentric.media/p/london-tik...
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Watergate, but if someone was killed.
NYT confirming MS NOW reporting:
Prosecutors began investigating Renee Good's killing, then Washington told them to stop.
Federal prosecutors had a warrant to collect evidence from Good's vehicle, but Trump leaders said to drop it. About a dozen prosecutors have since departed.
Prosecutors began investigating Renee Good's killing, then Washington told them to stop.
Federal prosecutors had a warrant to collect evidence from Good's vehicle, but Trump leaders said to drop it. About a dozen prosecutors have since departed.
Prosecutors Began Investigating Renee Good’s Killing. Washington Told Them to Stop.
www.nytimes.com
February 8, 2026 at 12:22 AM
Watergate, but if someone was killed.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Dear Northern Ireland,
I think you need to investigate your former Prime Minister Sean Woodward for his relationship with Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein. Your attention to this matter would be greatly appreciated.
I think you need to investigate your former Prime Minister Sean Woodward for his relationship with Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein. Your attention to this matter would be greatly appreciated.
February 6, 2026 at 7:24 PM
Dear Northern Ireland,
I think you need to investigate your former Prime Minister Sean Woodward for his relationship with Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein. Your attention to this matter would be greatly appreciated.
I think you need to investigate your former Prime Minister Sean Woodward for his relationship with Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein. Your attention to this matter would be greatly appreciated.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Yep, I saw Duke Ellington in Newcastle in the early 60s with Hodges Gonzavles, Anderson etc. mind-blowing
February 7, 2026 at 11:48 PM
Yep, I saw Duke Ellington in Newcastle in the early 60s with Hodges Gonzavles, Anderson etc. mind-blowing
Just listened to Miss Thing by the 1939 Count Basie Orchestra and was reminded of the almost unbelievable fact that I saw Harry 'Sweets' Edison play in the Gresham hotel in Dublin in my youth. Closest I've come to that extraordinary period in the music.
February 7, 2026 at 11:39 PM
Just listened to Miss Thing by the 1939 Count Basie Orchestra and was reminded of the almost unbelievable fact that I saw Harry 'Sweets' Edison play in the Gresham hotel in Dublin in my youth. Closest I've come to that extraordinary period in the music.
This is a wonderful interview. Putting Considering Genius: Writings on Jazz on my birthday wishlist.
February 7, 2026 at 9:25 PM
This is a wonderful interview. Putting Considering Genius: Writings on Jazz on my birthday wishlist.
This band is jumping. Charlie Rouse, Butch Warren, Ben Riley.
👂https://www.radiofrance.fr/francemusique/podcasts/les-legendes-du-jazz/thelonious-monk-en-concert-le-23-fevrier-1964-au-studio-104-de-la-maison-de-la-radio-a-paris-1-2-1664180
Thelonious Monk en concert le 23 février 1964 au Studio 104 de la Maison de la Radio à Paris (1/2)
« Ne joue pas ce que le public veut, joue ce que tu veux et laisse le public s’emparer de ce que tu fais, même si ça doit lui prendre quinze ou vingt ans. » Thelonious Monk
www.radiofrance.fr
February 7, 2026 at 8:39 PM
This band is jumping. Charlie Rouse, Butch Warren, Ben Riley.
👂https://www.radiofrance.fr/francemusique/podcasts/les-legendes-du-jazz/thelonious-monk-en-concert-le-23-fevrier-1964-au-studio-104-de-la-maison-de-la-radio-a-paris-1-2-1664180
Thelonious Monk en concert le 23 février 1964 au Studio 104 de la Maison de la Radio à Paris (1/2)
« Ne joue pas ce que le public veut, joue ce que tu veux et laisse le public s’emparer de ce que tu fais, même si ça doit lui prendre quinze ou vingt ans. » Thelonious Monk
www.radiofrance.fr
February 7, 2026 at 8:05 PM
👂https://www.radiofrance.fr/francemusique/podcasts/les-legendes-du-jazz/thelonious-monk-en-concert-le-23-fevrier-1964-au-studio-104-de-la-maison-de-la-radio-a-paris-1-2-1664180
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
This is nonsense because an early election isn’t in Starmer’s hands. The King would surely refuse a dissolution of Parliament on the grounds that someone else would be able to form a majority. The PLP would close ranks to ensure it.
Will Keir Starmer use his nuclear option to try to head off a leadership challenge? www.independent.co.uk/voices/keir-...
Will Keir Starmer use his nuclear option to try to head off a leadership challenge?
The prime minister’s allies have hinted that he will call a general election, says John Rentoul
www.independent.co.uk
February 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM
This is nonsense because an early election isn’t in Starmer’s hands. The King would surely refuse a dissolution of Parliament on the grounds that someone else would be able to form a majority. The PLP would close ranks to ensure it.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
To be fair, do they even have food in Italy?
Not only did they bring a small private army, but among the waste of taxpayer money was BRINGING A FULL PLANE OF FOOD.
To *Italy*.
To *Italy*.
February 7, 2026 at 4:32 PM
To be fair, do they even have food in Italy?
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
I don't think we have to engage properly with Matt Goodwin talking about birth rates, he's just trying to signal that he wants more white people, it's not really anything beyond that.
February 7, 2026 at 3:35 PM
I don't think we have to engage properly with Matt Goodwin talking about birth rates, he's just trying to signal that he wants more white people, it's not really anything beyond that.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
A good example of how strangely unpolitical this government is at times.
The Economist is fretting that trade union laws have been tilted (sharply!) back towards strengthening unions.
But is the government making an argument around this to progressive voters? No.
economist.com/britain/2026...
The Economist is fretting that trade union laws have been tilted (sharply!) back towards strengthening unions.
But is the government making an argument around this to progressive voters? No.
economist.com/britain/2026...
February 7, 2026 at 12:59 PM
A good example of how strangely unpolitical this government is at times.
The Economist is fretting that trade union laws have been tilted (sharply!) back towards strengthening unions.
But is the government making an argument around this to progressive voters? No.
economist.com/britain/2026...
The Economist is fretting that trade union laws have been tilted (sharply!) back towards strengthening unions.
But is the government making an argument around this to progressive voters? No.
economist.com/britain/2026...
Great reporting from Amelia Gentleman, brilliantly complemented by Marina Hyde's op-ed. Grim. www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...
Sex and snacks, but no seat at the table: the role of women in Epstein’s sordid men’s club
Files reveal a world of flattery and fratboy tones, where rich men are cultivated and women provide services
www.theguardian.com
February 7, 2026 at 12:19 PM
Great reporting from Amelia Gentleman, brilliantly complemented by Marina Hyde's op-ed. Grim. www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Absolutely tremendous work here, no notes.
(Apart from to say that this proposal is by the actual president of RIBA)
(Apart from to say that this proposal is by the actual president of RIBA)
February 7, 2026 at 9:24 AM
Absolutely tremendous work here, no notes.
(Apart from to say that this proposal is by the actual president of RIBA)
(Apart from to say that this proposal is by the actual president of RIBA)
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
ICE seems to have grabbed several people early Thursday morning at a few spots in my town. News spread quickly but hours after the fact. Lots of rumors. Also looks to be genuinely galvanizing local action.
February 7, 2026 at 1:58 AM
ICE seems to have grabbed several people early Thursday morning at a few spots in my town. News spread quickly but hours after the fact. Lots of rumors. Also looks to be genuinely galvanizing local action.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Richard Lloyd just announced that Television bassist Fred Smith died in hospice today
RIP to one of the greats
RIP to one of the greats
Television - Elevation
YouTube video by SpaceOdyssee0
youtu.be
February 6, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Richard Lloyd just announced that Television bassist Fred Smith died in hospice today
RIP to one of the greats
RIP to one of the greats
This made me laugh out loud, which *sweeping gesture* is not a frequent occurrence these days.
in this week's newsletter! my very, very hot take, which is that one of the reasons politics has got bad is that our politicians have got.......too good - do read it, see what you think, shout at me, etc youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/politics-i... [free edition!]
February 6, 2026 at 1:20 PM
This made me laugh out loud, which *sweeping gesture* is not a frequent occurrence these days.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
5/5 PMs with approval ratings of measles isn't just a feature of failed leadership. It's Brexit Britain. There's no money for anything people want and were promised they would have, and no one can blame the people who got us into this mess because they got 52% of the vote (let alone reverse it).
Starmer's reported condition - incredibly unpopular, shorn of authority, probably un-reelectable and yet will stagger on for want of an alternative - is just the new normal of how Britain is governed. It was also true for two-thirds of May's premiership, half of Johnson's and all of Sunak's.
February 6, 2026 at 12:10 PM
5/5 PMs with approval ratings of measles isn't just a feature of failed leadership. It's Brexit Britain. There's no money for anything people want and were promised they would have, and no one can blame the people who got us into this mess because they got 52% of the vote (let alone reverse it).
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Starmer's reported condition - incredibly unpopular, shorn of authority, probably un-reelectable and yet will stagger on for want of an alternative - is just the new normal of how Britain is governed. It was also true for two-thirds of May's premiership, half of Johnson's and all of Sunak's.
February 6, 2026 at 11:36 AM
Starmer's reported condition - incredibly unpopular, shorn of authority, probably un-reelectable and yet will stagger on for want of an alternative - is just the new normal of how Britain is governed. It was also true for two-thirds of May's premiership, half of Johnson's and all of Sunak's.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
I hope the abyss in @stephenkb.bsky.social's newsletter becomes a returning character
February 6, 2026 at 11:20 AM
I hope the abyss in @stephenkb.bsky.social's newsletter becomes a returning character
For those of us of a certain age this would be a big scalp for the Epstein files.
Affaire Epstein : Jack Lang convoqué par le Quai d’Orsay dimanche, l’exécutif s’attend à une résistance du président de l’Institut du monde arabe
Affaire Epstein : Jack Lang convoqué par le Quai d’Orsay dimanche, l’exécutif s’attend à une résistance du président de l’Institut du monde arabe
Si l’Elysée et Matignon n’ont pas à se prononcer sur le fond de l’affaire, le couple exécutif attend des explications sur les mails mettant en cause l’ancien ministre socialiste dans les millions de documents liés à l’affaire Epstein.
www.lemonde.fr
February 6, 2026 at 9:39 AM
For those of us of a certain age this would be a big scalp for the Epstein files.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
🔴 BREAKING: Labour Together paid controversial PR firm £30k to investigate journalists who were digging into how its undeclared funding
Reporters from Sunday Times, Guardian and other outlets targetted
*And* Morgan McSweeney knew about it
Full story:
democracyforsale.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
Reporters from Sunday Times, Guardian and other outlets targetted
*And* Morgan McSweeney knew about it
Full story:
democracyforsale.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
BREAKING: McSweeney’s think tank paid PR firm to investigate journalists
Labour Together put private investigators onto journalists writing about its funding. Starmer's right-hand man knew.
democracyforsale.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 8:01 PM
🔴 BREAKING: Labour Together paid controversial PR firm £30k to investigate journalists who were digging into how its undeclared funding
Reporters from Sunday Times, Guardian and other outlets targetted
*And* Morgan McSweeney knew about it
Full story:
democracyforsale.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
Reporters from Sunday Times, Guardian and other outlets targetted
*And* Morgan McSweeney knew about it
Full story:
democracyforsale.substack.com/p/exclusive-...