Declan Gaffney
@greyskiesthinking.bsky.social
Research, analysis & grey-skies thinking on labour markets, social security, public finance & equality. Usual disclaimer. Cheap foreign labour 🇮🇪. Profile pic is Takashi Shimura with Toshiro Mifune in Stray Dog (Akira Kurosawa, 1949).
Pinned
If all young people deferred having children until they could meet the entire cost of raising them, there'd be no workers to pay for pensions in thirty years time.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
It’s very loud in Kyiv.
russia is attacking us with ballistic missiles.
Let the world know.
russia is attacking us with ballistic missiles.
Let the world know.
February 2, 2026 at 11:43 PM
It’s very loud in Kyiv.
russia is attacking us with ballistic missiles.
Let the world know.
russia is attacking us with ballistic missiles.
Let the world know.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Alex Pretti’s death ruled a homicide by Minnesota medical examiner
Alex Pretti’s death ruled a homicide by Minnesota medical examiner
Alex Pretti’s death ruled a homicide by Minnesota medical examiner
www.independent.co.uk
February 2, 2026 at 11:23 PM
Alex Pretti’s death ruled a homicide by Minnesota medical examiner
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Reminder that "jaywalking" was literally made up by american car manufacturers to shift the blame for accidents from drivers to pedestrians. "Jay" was a slang term meaning "idiot" or "rube".
“Jaywalking is permitted in London. In 1966, the police tried to crack down on it, but gave up after three months.”
People walk and cycle on roads by right, people drive under licence.
Jaywalking is not a thing in English law and Waymo must not change that.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
People walk and cycle on roads by right, people drive under licence.
Jaywalking is not a thing in English law and Waymo must not change that.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Self-driving taxis are coming to London – should we be worried? | Jack Stilgoe
Waymo’s cars were first rolled out in San Francisco, but the English capital’s old roads, pelican crossings and jaywalkers may pose issues for AI, says science and technology professor Jack Stilgoe
www.theguardian.com
February 2, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Reminder that "jaywalking" was literally made up by american car manufacturers to shift the blame for accidents from drivers to pedestrians. "Jay" was a slang term meaning "idiot" or "rube".
'Intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich.' I suppose you can read that two ways.
February 2, 2026 at 10:47 PM
'Intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich.' I suppose you can read that two ways.
Too trusting, everyone says that was Peter's great fault.
This Katy Balls interview with PM, conducted before latest revelations, is quite something. He says of Epstein: “Perhaps he wanted to be a mentor and I was naive in regarding him as a good-faith actor. There was no reason to shun his advice, but I was too trusting.”
www.thetimes.com/article/22e6...
www.thetimes.com/article/22e6...
Peter Mandelson: Epstein is like dog muck; the smell won’t go away
Peter Mandelson was sacked as ambassador to the US because of his links to Jeffrey Epstein. Now, he has resigned from the Labour Party. Is this the end for him?
www.thetimes.com
February 2, 2026 at 10:18 PM
Too trusting, everyone says that was Peter's great fault.
👇
The awfulness of Epstein risks overshadowing the fact that what Mandelson did would have been wrong whichever financier he was sending stuff to. thecritic.co.uk/pete...
February 2, 2026 at 9:53 PM
👇
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
The most relevant social science take on Epstein:
Sounds like the Epstein files offer rich materials for an anthropological study in the spirit of Marcel Mauss. There's no such thing as a free gift! No gift without a counter-gift!
February 2, 2026 at 12:34 PM
The most relevant social science take on Epstein:
Almost regretting rewatching the BBC Tinker Tailor over the last week. It's colouring my perception of unfolding events.
February 2, 2026 at 8:44 PM
Almost regretting rewatching the BBC Tinker Tailor over the last week. It's colouring my perception of unfolding events.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
There's more.
On 31 March 2010, Lord Mandelson's principal private secretary sent him a note of a meeting between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Larry Summers, US Treasury Secretary.
Lord Mandelson forwarded it to Jeffrey Epstein five minutes later.
On 31 March 2010, Lord Mandelson's principal private secretary sent him a note of a meeting between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Larry Summers, US Treasury Secretary.
Lord Mandelson forwarded it to Jeffrey Epstein five minutes later.
February 2, 2026 at 8:30 PM
There's more.
On 31 March 2010, Lord Mandelson's principal private secretary sent him a note of a meeting between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Larry Summers, US Treasury Secretary.
Lord Mandelson forwarded it to Jeffrey Epstein five minutes later.
On 31 March 2010, Lord Mandelson's principal private secretary sent him a note of a meeting between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Larry Summers, US Treasury Secretary.
Lord Mandelson forwarded it to Jeffrey Epstein five minutes later.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
*extremely economist voice* The Melania movie is proof that bribery should simply be legalized. Look how wasteful these backdoor bribes are
February 2, 2026 at 6:34 PM
*extremely economist voice* The Melania movie is proof that bribery should simply be legalized. Look how wasteful these backdoor bribes are
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
I have decided that ALL physical analogies for the economy are rubbish.
open.substack.com/pub/gileswil...
Income is not located in a place. Money doesn't flow. The economy isn't a machine. Or a body. There's no meaningful "fuel".
open.substack.com/pub/gileswil...
Income is not located in a place. Money doesn't flow. The economy isn't a machine. Or a body. There's no meaningful "fuel".
it is not just that there are no "levers"
language is a huge barrier to understanding
open.substack.com
February 2, 2026 at 6:30 PM
I have decided that ALL physical analogies for the economy are rubbish.
open.substack.com/pub/gileswil...
Income is not located in a place. Money doesn't flow. The economy isn't a machine. Or a body. There's no meaningful "fuel".
open.substack.com/pub/gileswil...
Income is not located in a place. Money doesn't flow. The economy isn't a machine. Or a body. There's no meaningful "fuel".
Don't tell me he might have breached the ministerial code 😮!!!
SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn has reported Peter Mandelson to the Met Police.
Flynn said: "There is no question that Lord Mandelson's actions were shameful and unethical - the only question is the extent to which his actions breached the ministerial code and the law"
Flynn said: "There is no question that Lord Mandelson's actions were shameful and unethical - the only question is the extent to which his actions breached the ministerial code and the law"
February 2, 2026 at 3:30 PM
Don't tell me he might have breached the ministerial code 😮!!!
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
🚨BREAKING - Gordon Brown says he has asked the Cabinet Secretary "to investigate the disclosure of confidential and market sensitive information" allegedly from Mandelson
Says he asked the cabinet office to investigate this in September and department found no record.
Says he asked the cabinet office to investigate this in September and department found no record.
February 2, 2026 at 3:09 PM
🚨BREAKING - Gordon Brown says he has asked the Cabinet Secretary "to investigate the disclosure of confidential and market sensitive information" allegedly from Mandelson
Says he asked the cabinet office to investigate this in September and department found no record.
Says he asked the cabinet office to investigate this in September and department found no record.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Explosive from @faisalislam.bsky.social about that call that did take place with Dimon and Darling.
February 2, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Explosive from @faisalislam.bsky.social about that call that did take place with Dimon and Darling.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
I do think CS Lewis was on to something when he wrote about the lure of being in the Inner Ring. (“Of all the passions, the passion for the Inner Ring is most skillful in making a man who is not yet a very bad man do very bad things”)
www.lewissociety.org/innerring/
www.lewissociety.org/innerring/
The Inner Ring - CS Lewis Society of California
www.lewissociety.org
February 2, 2026 at 11:39 AM
I do think CS Lewis was on to something when he wrote about the lure of being in the Inner Ring. (“Of all the passions, the passion for the Inner Ring is most skillful in making a man who is not yet a very bad man do very bad things”)
www.lewissociety.org/innerring/
www.lewissociety.org/innerring/
Very disappointed in Peter's neglect of the most basic principles of tradecraft regarding e-mail.
BREAKING on ft website:
Lord Peter Mandelson leaked a sensitive UK government document to Jeffrey Epstein while he was business secretary that proposed £20bn of asset sales and revealed Labour’s tax policy plans
www.ft.com/content/fdf7...
Lord Peter Mandelson leaked a sensitive UK government document to Jeffrey Epstein while he was business secretary that proposed £20bn of asset sales and revealed Labour’s tax policy plans
www.ft.com/content/fdf7...
Mandelson leaked sensitive UK government tax plans to Epstein
Former ambassador forwarded memo from special adviser to Gordon Brown to late sex offender in 2009
www.ft.com
February 2, 2026 at 11:45 AM
Very disappointed in Peter's neglect of the most basic principles of tradecraft regarding e-mail.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Mandelson must have said something mean about Jim's puddle photos
big Epstein-Mandelson scoop coming up soon
February 2, 2026 at 11:27 AM
Mandelson must have said something mean about Jim's puddle photos
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
The second correction here is incredible, a bit like declaring that 95% of the population is currently wearing nappies.
The Times has now published a correction of some of the multiple errors in its front-page splash interview of Alan Milburn on NEETs/SEN.
Of course, having published Milburn's invented numbers, they don't bother to give their readers the actual ones.
Original article here: archive.ph/I0f49
Of course, having published Milburn's invented numbers, they don't bother to give their readers the actual ones.
Original article here: archive.ph/I0f49
February 2, 2026 at 10:55 AM
The second correction here is incredible, a bit like declaring that 95% of the population is currently wearing nappies.
This is really illuminating on where Labour's political strategists are at on the Reform threat & why the strategy is so weak. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
To win the battle against Reform, Labour must first define its enemy | Tom Baldwin
The PM has told Labour it is in the ‘fight of our lives’ against Nigel Farage’s challengers. To win, it must first agree on a line of attack, says Tom Baldwin, author of Keir Starmer, The Biography
www.theguardian.com
February 2, 2026 at 10:54 AM
This is really illuminating on where Labour's political strategists are at on the Reform threat & why the strategy is so weak. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Alistair Darling and the official Treasury were always aware that investment banks had an inside track to Number 10. But the brazen nature of that inside track is rather breath-taking.
Who leaked this Number 10 discussion to Jeffrey Epstein? And are there consequences for the leaker?
It’s an internal discussion re. getting markets moving in the aftermath of the financial crisis. No doubt of great interest to Epstein and his financial market clients.
It’s an internal discussion re. getting markets moving in the aftermath of the financial crisis. No doubt of great interest to Epstein and his financial market clients.
February 2, 2026 at 10:33 AM
Alistair Darling and the official Treasury were always aware that investment banks had an inside track to Number 10. But the brazen nature of that inside track is rather breath-taking.
Sounds like the Epstein files offer rich materials for an anthropological study in the spirit of Marcel Mauss. There's no such thing as a free gift! No gift without a counter-gift!
February 2, 2026 at 10:23 AM
Sounds like the Epstein files offer rich materials for an anthropological study in the spirit of Marcel Mauss. There's no such thing as a free gift! No gift without a counter-gift!
Yeah, yeah, the Mandy business is funny, but it's also depressing as f**k.
February 1, 2026 at 11:09 PM
Yeah, yeah, the Mandy business is funny, but it's also depressing as f**k.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
Also evidence that essentially eliminating irregular immigration - as Australia has - doesn't, by itself, stop the radical right.
Nobody in Britain pays any attention to Australian politics, but One Nation overtaking the Coalition in the polls has distinct parallels with Reform leading the Conservatives. Parties on the radical right are coming for centre right parties across the world...
Poll via AFR / RedBridge Accent.
Poll via AFR / RedBridge Accent.
February 1, 2026 at 9:46 PM
Also evidence that essentially eliminating irregular immigration - as Australia has - doesn't, by itself, stop the radical right.
Reposted by Declan Gaffney
He should know that the letter of resignation has to be to the Secretary of his CLP not the General Secretary.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Lord Mandelson resigns from Labour Party over Epstein links
Lord Mandelson resigns from Labour Party over Epstein links
www.bbc.co.uk
February 1, 2026 at 10:41 PM
He should know that the letter of resignation has to be to the Secretary of his CLP not the General Secretary.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
