Paul Bivand
@paulbivand.bsky.social
Labour market stats wonk: default mode: cynical. Boosts are not endorsements and may be ironic. Also on avian-dinosaur-site @PaulBivand
The labour market flows produced by ONS this morning.
November 11, 2025 at 3:21 PM
The labour market flows produced by ONS this morning.
Looking at the trends in rates fro just these flows, allm of them are cyclical, but flows from inactivity (directly) have been more positive than job changers or flows from unemployment.
November 11, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Looking at the trends in rates fro just these flows, allm of them are cyclical, but flows from inactivity (directly) have been more positive than job changers or flows from unemployment.
New job starts, overall, have been trending down - this looks very much like online vacancy trends from the likes of Indeed Hiringlab. ONS gives breakdowns of where job starts came from.
November 11, 2025 at 1:52 PM
New job starts, overall, have been trending down - this looks very much like online vacancy trends from the likes of Indeed Hiringlab. ONS gives breakdowns of where job starts came from.
The net flow from inactivity to unemployment is down this quarter, but remains above pre-pandemic levels. This means people who are economically inactive flowing towards the labour market.
November 11, 2025 at 1:52 PM
The net flow from inactivity to unemployment is down this quarter, but remains above pre-pandemic levels. This means people who are economically inactive flowing towards the labour market.
This quarter's labour market flows can help answer. Flows into unemployment (by definition), come from either employment or inactivity. In the last quarter, the net flow between employment and unemployment is -ve, so , on net, people are flowing to jobs, while the net flow with inactivity is +ve.
November 11, 2025 at 1:52 PM
This quarter's labour market flows can help answer. Flows into unemployment (by definition), come from either employment or inactivity. In the last quarter, the net flow between employment and unemployment is -ve, so , on net, people are flowing to jobs, while the net flow with inactivity is +ve.
The story of this morning's labour market stats is that unemployment is rising - and almost up to it's pandemic peak (in the UK, unemployment was squashed down by furlough keeping people in jobs, unlike some other places). But, where is this unemployment coming from? 1/
November 11, 2025 at 1:52 PM
The story of this morning's labour market stats is that unemployment is rising - and almost up to it's pandemic peak (in the UK, unemployment was squashed down by furlough keeping people in jobs, unlike some other places). But, where is this unemployment coming from? 1/
Thanks, having asked (many years ago) for flows between conditionality groups, now trying to visualise them. More complex than lfs labour market status (below). With 8 conditionality status nodes not 3. And many edges. LFS is August release.
November 2, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Thanks, having asked (many years ago) for flows between conditionality groups, now trying to visualise them. More complex than lfs labour market status (below). With 8 conditionality status nodes not 3. And many edges. LFS is August release.
A lot of the demographics is the fall in the number of children. Playing with OECD dependency ratios (youth and old as % of 20-65 population). France for comparison (puts our demographic issues into context).
October 27, 2025 at 9:22 PM
A lot of the demographics is the fall in the number of children. Playing with OECD dependency ratios (youth and old as % of 20-65 population). France for comparison (puts our demographic issues into context).
New today from ONS - employee earnings data. www.ons.gov.uk/releases/emp.... I've compared occupations with 2021 (1st year of same classification). Figures used are weekly pay, so if firms have responded to employer NI rises, min wage rise by cutting hours, that would give lower pay rises
October 23, 2025 at 3:06 PM
New today from ONS - employee earnings data. www.ons.gov.uk/releases/emp.... I've compared occupations with 2021 (1st year of same classification). Figures used are weekly pay, so if firms have responded to employer NI rises, min wage rise by cutting hours, that would give lower pay rises
Looked at OECD data on ageing population, and think we may have missed the fiscal effects of declining numbers of children. OECD chart ages only, France as similar population, more extreme changes.
October 7, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Looked at OECD data on ageing population, and think we may have missed the fiscal effects of declining numbers of children. OECD chart ages only, France as similar population, more extreme changes.
Feasible that the drop in HMRC employment (which Resolution Foundation sees as a better guide than the LFS rise), which is mostly young, includes moves to self-employed. Gap between the 2 lines in each facet should be self-employed, if all accurate, which is unlikely.
September 2, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Feasible that the drop in HMRC employment (which Resolution Foundation sees as a better guide than the LFS rise), which is mostly young, includes moves to self-employed. Gap between the 2 lines in each facet should be self-employed, if all accurate, which is unlikely.
HMRC have been trying to deal with old-style small employers keeping workers on emergency tax code until the end of financial years. That's declining, but affects seasonal factors especially around April. Wouldn't be surprised by sharp rise in self-employment % of workers over the last year or so.
August 26, 2025 at 2:29 PM
HMRC have been trying to deal with old-style small employers keeping workers on emergency tax code until the end of financial years. That's declining, but affects seasonal factors especially around April. Wouldn't be surprised by sharp rise in self-employment % of workers over the last year or so.
This chart shows the HMRC flows figures just for the last two years. Job outflows (people leaving jobs) moved in a narrow range, but 1.7% down on June 2024 (month prior to election). New job starts further down, but little change since July 2024 (election month).
August 12, 2025 at 1:30 PM
This chart shows the HMRC flows figures just for the last two years. Job outflows (people leaving jobs) moved in a narrow range, but 1.7% down on June 2024 (month prior to election). New job starts further down, but little change since July 2024 (election month).
Online vacancies from Indeed (to 1 August 2025). The latest figure is 78.1% of pre-covid levels. Chart from: data.indeed.com#/postings. Not surprising that job starts and vacancy flow look similar - but ONS vacancies rather different as include more 'stocks' of vacancies rather than Indeed. 2/3
August 12, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Online vacancies from Indeed (to 1 August 2025). The latest figure is 78.1% of pre-covid levels. Chart from: data.indeed.com#/postings. Not surprising that job starts and vacancy flow look similar - but ONS vacancies rather different as include more 'stocks' of vacancies rather than Indeed. 2/3
This morning's labour market release of HMRC data on jobs includes flow data on people starting and finishing jobs. Includes people moving from one job to another (usually the majority). New job starts down 10.7% on June 2019. Job leavers down too, but less, and broadly flat. Looks a bit like (2)
August 12, 2025 at 1:30 PM
This morning's labour market release of HMRC data on jobs includes flow data on people starting and finishing jobs. Includes people moving from one job to another (usually the majority). New job starts down 10.7% on June 2019. Job leavers down too, but less, and broadly flat. Looks a bit like (2)
Mid-skilled occupations vary - admin and clerical roles have been dropping for a long time. Construction trades are down on 2019, but textiles and printing trades are up. Skilled metal, electrical etc roles well down on 2019.
July 24, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Mid-skilled occupations vary - admin and clerical roles have been dropping for a long time. Construction trades are down on 2019, but textiles and printing trades are up. Skilled metal, electrical etc roles well down on 2019.
High-skilled jobs, on the other hand, are mostly well down on 2019. The exception is health & social care associate professionals - particularly (in the ONS data) early education and childcare practitioners (childcare expansion) & higher level teaching assistants (SEND).
July 24, 2025 at 1:29 PM
High-skilled jobs, on the other hand, are mostly well down on 2019. The exception is health & social care associate professionals - particularly (in the ONS data) early education and childcare practitioners (childcare expansion) & higher level teaching assistants (SEND).
Lower skilled (and paid) jobs have smaller falls in vacancy flow since 2019. The exception is customer service jobs... Elementary admin and service - with vacancies up since 2019 - includes coffee shop and hospitality jobs affected by the minimum wage rises and employer National Insurance rise.
July 24, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Lower skilled (and paid) jobs have smaller falls in vacancy flow since 2019. The exception is customer service jobs... Elementary admin and service - with vacancies up since 2019 - includes coffee shop and hospitality jobs affected by the minimum wage rises and employer National Insurance rise.
This morning's ONS real-time indicators www.ons.gov.uk/economy/econ... included new online vacancies for June 2025 (not seasonally adjusted). Nearly 34% down on June 2019, but 3% up on June 2024 (may be important for some narratives). Trend up since July 2023, except Christmas.
July 24, 2025 at 1:13 PM
This morning's ONS real-time indicators www.ons.gov.uk/economy/econ... included new online vacancies for June 2025 (not seasonally adjusted). Nearly 34% down on June 2019, but 3% up on June 2024 (may be important for some narratives). Trend up since July 2023, except Christmas.
Dangerous to follow the narrative re NICs. Actual low-paid job new vacancies (by occupation) vary a lot. Hospitality and retail lowest paid in 'elementary administration and services' - up on 2019. Customer services the biggest drop (no surprise there). New stats on these next week. Sectors mislead.
July 17, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Dangerous to follow the narrative re NICs. Actual low-paid job new vacancies (by occupation) vary a lot. Hospitality and retail lowest paid in 'elementary administration and services' - up on 2019. Customer services the biggest drop (no surprise there). New stats on these next week. Sectors mislead.
This morning's labour market statistics have produced comment blaming poor figures on the rise in employer National Insurance announced October 2024, implemented April 2025. HMRC stats on job leaving little change, while the fall in job starts was June 2024, before election.
July 17, 2025 at 3:14 PM
This morning's labour market statistics have produced comment blaming poor figures on the rise in employer National Insurance announced October 2024, implemented April 2025. HMRC stats on job leaving little change, while the fall in job starts was June 2024, before election.
This is a snapshot chart from the latest one. digital.nhs.uk/data-and-inf.... There are similar analyses for other mental health conditions. May have to go back to previous surveys to get time series.
July 16, 2025 at 1:31 PM
This is a snapshot chart from the latest one. digital.nhs.uk/data-and-inf.... There are similar analyses for other mental health conditions. May have to go back to previous surveys to get time series.
Unless you increase growth, by some combination of raising productivity and raising total hours worked. Neither easy.
July 15, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Unless you increase growth, by some combination of raising productivity and raising total hours worked. Neither easy.
Children can have their family's benefit limited when all or some of the adults are working. Parents who are trying to support their family, but get their in-work benefit cut because they have a third child.
This is most of the children who are 'affected' by the 2-child limit.
This is most of the children who are 'affected' by the 2-child limit.
July 10, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Children can have their family's benefit limited when all or some of the adults are working. Parents who are trying to support their family, but get their in-work benefit cut because they have a third child.
This is most of the children who are 'affected' by the 2-child limit.
This is most of the children who are 'affected' by the 2-child limit.
Looking at the comment on the DWP stats on children who don't get a child element in their family's benefit (2-child limit), saw figures on those affected who were born before the claim started - parents needing to claim after their 3rd child was born. 267,000 children born before the claim began.
July 10, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Looking at the comment on the DWP stats on children who don't get a child element in their family's benefit (2-child limit), saw figures on those affected who were born before the claim started - parents needing to claim after their 3rd child was born. 267,000 children born before the claim began.