Michael Hirson
@hotpotwhynot.bsky.social
Head of China Strategy at 22V Research, Non-Resident Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. Considerate Citibiker.
This thread is the Triple Lindy of @rajakorman.bsky.social financial punning.
But they treat High-Truss societies as though they were Kwasi-EM.
December 4, 2025 at 1:26 AM
This thread is the Triple Lindy of @rajakorman.bsky.social financial punning.
Reposted by Michael Hirson
A downturn in the AI sector wouldn’t just hit markets. It could also alter the strategic balance with China and Taiwan.
Thinking the Thinkable on an AI Market Correction
You’re not hallucinating: AI “bubble” discourse is everywhere. Whether you’re looking at Google Trends, reading the paper of record, listening to subject
warontherocks.com
November 28, 2025 at 2:45 PM
A downturn in the AI sector wouldn’t just hit markets. It could also alter the strategic balance with China and Taiwan.
Reposted by Michael Hirson
ICYMI, I hijacked the discourse to make one of my long-standing favorite points. The screen-shoot is from a WSJ op-ed by the Treasury Secretary doing before your very eyes EXACTLY (and with his customary insouciance) exactly what I complain about.
Please stop blaming on trade the things (or putative things like the $140k number) that are pretty much entirely the fault of America’s terrible nontradeable sectors. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
November 27, 2025 at 2:36 PM
ICYMI, I hijacked the discourse to make one of my long-standing favorite points. The screen-shoot is from a WSJ op-ed by the Treasury Secretary doing before your very eyes EXACTLY (and with his customary insouciance) exactly what I complain about.
Reposted by Michael Hirson
ICE vs the clergy
November 15, 2025 at 1:32 AM
ICE vs the clergy
Reposted by Michael Hirson
Imagine being told in 1987 that this headline would exist in 2025
President Donald Trump has pardoned Mets great Darryl Strawberry on past tax evasion and drug charges, citing the his post-career embrace of his Christian faith and longtime sobriety.
President Trump pardons New York Mets great Darryl Strawberry on past tax evasion and drug charges
President Donald Trump has pardoned New York Mets great Darryl Strawberry on past tax evasion and drug charges, citing the his post-career embrace of his Christian faith and longtime sobriety.
trib.al
November 8, 2025 at 2:40 AM
Imagine being told in 1987 that this headline would exist in 2025
Reposted by Michael Hirson
My view on the mediocre real economy ROI of the Hyperscaler CAPEX inspired a lot of conversation this week across socials, so I'm opening it up to all as my free post of the week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...
The AI Boom’s Real Economy Problem
While AI CAPEX is exploding, the payoff isn’t. Meta’s $70B/yr is only notching $3-5bln in incremental revenue. The kind of poor sector ROI exposing the diff between the dream and real economy reality.
bobeunlimited.substack.com
November 1, 2025 at 10:06 AM
My view on the mediocre real economy ROI of the Hyperscaler CAPEX inspired a lot of conversation this week across socials, so I'm opening it up to all as my free post of the week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...
Reposted by Michael Hirson
AI sitcom accidentally a Lynchian fever dream. The sort of general malaise that only the genius possess and insane lament.
October 29, 2025 at 9:47 PM
AI sitcom accidentally a Lynchian fever dream. The sort of general malaise that only the genius possess and insane lament.
Interested in what China’s next Five-Year Plan means for the economy and China’s global role? Tune in to this @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org discussion tomorrow (Wednesday).
Where is Xi Jinping steering China’s economy?
How are U.S.-China relations shaping his choices?
Why so much turmoil in Beijing?
Join @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org for an Oct 29 webinar on the Fourth Plenum w/Michael Hirson, Chris Johnson, Dan Wang & Guoguang Wu
asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
How are U.S.-China relations shaping his choices?
Why so much turmoil in Beijing?
Join @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org for an Oct 29 webinar on the Fourth Plenum w/Michael Hirson, Chris Johnson, Dan Wang & Guoguang Wu
asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
October 28, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Interested in what China’s next Five-Year Plan means for the economy and China’s global role? Tune in to this @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org discussion tomorrow (Wednesday).
Reposted by Michael Hirson
FREE FRIDAY: I discuss the emerging deal between the LDP and Ishin no Kai, which is not without critics but which leaves Takaichi all but assured of winning the premiership. Plus, I look back at the late Murayama Tomiichi’s unlikely but meaningful premiership.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
An LDP-Ishin coalition takes shape | Japan Daily Briefing
LDP nears a deal to cement Takaichi's premiership. Plus: political leaders marked the death of Murayama Tomiichi, the unlikely prime minister.
open.substack.com
October 17, 2025 at 10:04 PM
FREE FRIDAY: I discuss the emerging deal between the LDP and Ishin no Kai, which is not without critics but which leaves Takaichi all but assured of winning the premiership. Plus, I look back at the late Murayama Tomiichi’s unlikely but meaningful premiership.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Reposted by Michael Hirson
Today, we're celebrating 1 billion rides taken on the subway thus far in 2025! As always, thanks for riding with us 🚇 🎊
October 14, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Today, we're celebrating 1 billion rides taken on the subway thus far in 2025! As always, thanks for riding with us 🚇 🎊
Reposted by Michael Hirson
I'm hoping that the "No Kings" rally this weekend has so many American flags flying it looks like the Fourth of July.
October 14, 2025 at 3:14 PM
I'm hoping that the "No Kings" rally this weekend has so many American flags flying it looks like the Fourth of July.
Reposted by Michael Hirson
Reposted by Michael Hirson
In June 1983, Xi Zhongxun, the father of Xi Jinping, hosted Kim Jong-il, the father of Kim Jong-un, in Beijing. They watched a performance by Peng Liyuan, who years later would marry Xi Jinping.
September 3, 2025 at 12:02 AM
In June 1983, Xi Zhongxun, the father of Xi Jinping, hosted Kim Jong-il, the father of Kim Jong-un, in Beijing. They watched a performance by Peng Liyuan, who years later would marry Xi Jinping.
Reposted by Michael Hirson
I threw everything in here—the dollar, bonds, the future of the defense umbrella, the insistence on centrality, stablecoin, why centrality is not always strength, the evolution of US & global (r,g ) dynamics, and a shoutout to Steven Solomon. But no dad jokes alas.
“The months since April 2 have clarified the multiple contradictory desires of the Trump administration vis-a-vis its position in the global economic hierarchy.”
@rajakorman.bsky.social on Trumponomics, dollar diplomacy, and multipolarity
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/mon...
@rajakorman.bsky.social on Trumponomics, dollar diplomacy, and multipolarity
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/mon...
Monetizing Primacy | Karthik Sankaran
Trumponomics, dollar diplomacy, and multipolarity
www.phenomenalworld.org
July 5, 2025 at 6:36 PM
I threw everything in here—the dollar, bonds, the future of the defense umbrella, the insistence on centrality, stablecoin, why centrality is not always strength, the evolution of US & global (r,g ) dynamics, and a shoutout to Steven Solomon. But no dad jokes alas.
Reposted by Michael Hirson
Financial literacy course should probably include a section on "spending $65k on some weird scam."
At this $65,000 a year AI-driven school, there are no teachers.
Students study for two hours a day using apps and personalized lesson plans and spend their afternoons on life skills such as financial literacy.
Students study for two hours a day using apps and personalized lesson plans and spend their afternoons on life skills such as financial literacy.
For $65,000 a year, a teacher-less AI private school comes to Virginia
At Alpha School, a new private school in Northern Virginia, students will study for just two hours a day using adaptive apps and personalized lesson plans.
www.washingtonpost.com
August 27, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Financial literacy course should probably include a section on "spending $65k on some weird scam."
Reposted by Michael Hirson
It's not until Sept 11, 1945 that you can detect a shift in tone. Why? That's the date when the the arrests of suspected war criminals began.
This marked a turning point for Japanese newspapers, whose rhetoric underwent a noticeable transformation as they adapted to the postwar environment.
This marked a turning point for Japanese newspapers, whose rhetoric underwent a noticeable transformation as they adapted to the postwar environment.
August 26, 2025 at 10:08 PM
It's not until Sept 11, 1945 that you can detect a shift in tone. Why? That's the date when the the arrests of suspected war criminals began.
This marked a turning point for Japanese newspapers, whose rhetoric underwent a noticeable transformation as they adapted to the postwar environment.
This marked a turning point for Japanese newspapers, whose rhetoric underwent a noticeable transformation as they adapted to the postwar environment.
Reposted by Michael Hirson
Fun to work with Jon Czin on this for Foreign Affairs:
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
Brookings Foreign Policy on X: ""Xi is obsessed with ensuring that the PLA’s men would resist if need be—but he is still not confident they would." In @ForeignAffairs, Brookings experts @jonczin & @JohnCulver689 examine Xi's approach to the PLA and his continued grip on the military: https://t.co/YAilFOn169" / X
"Xi is obsessed with ensuring that the PLA’s men would resist if need be—but he is still not confident they would." In @ForeignAffairs, Brookings experts @jonczin & @JohnCulver689 examine Xi's approach to the PLA and his continued grip on the military: https://t.co/YAilFOn169
x.com
August 18, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Fun to work with Jon Czin on this for Foreign Affairs:
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
Reposted by Michael Hirson
A sweet old lady wrote me to ask if I would help her out by signing off Jeopardy! every night saying "Don't forget your night medicine, my friends." I am actively considering this.
August 15, 2025 at 6:25 PM
A sweet old lady wrote me to ask if I would help her out by signing off Jeopardy! every night saying "Don't forget your night medicine, my friends." I am actively considering this.
Reposted by Michael Hirson
For those who are interested, I am posting longer-form notes on Substack, providing a little more background to the reporting in my SCMP stories.
Latest one here.
substack.com/@finbarrberm...
Latest one here.
substack.com/@finbarrberm...
Finbarr Bermingham (@finbarrbermingham)
Is EU’s global clout fading amid gruelling stand-offs with China and the US?
I suppose this is, for most people, a rhetorical question. The last week has done little for the bloc’s global standing. A...
substack.com
July 29, 2025 at 7:26 PM
For those who are interested, I am posting longer-form notes on Substack, providing a little more background to the reporting in my SCMP stories.
Latest one here.
substack.com/@finbarrberm...
Latest one here.
substack.com/@finbarrberm...
Reposted by Michael Hirson
Karvansaray restoran; Goychay, Azerbaijan https://www.google.com/maps/search/?api=1&query=40.651588%2C47.743297&query_place_id=ChIJr3CzStQFOUAR8B7jzdHX7Vg
July 4, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Karvansaray restoran; Goychay, Azerbaijan https://www.google.com/maps/search/?api=1&query=40.651588%2C47.743297&query_place_id=ChIJr3CzStQFOUAR8B7jzdHX7Vg
Reposted by Michael Hirson
Wang Yi told Kaja Kallas that China cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, otherwise the US will divert its full focus to Beijing.
Exclusive | China tells EU it cannot afford Russian loss in Ukraine war, sources say
Wang Yi tells top EU diplomat Beijing fears US shift of whole focus to China.
www.scmp.com
July 3, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Wang Yi told Kaja Kallas that China cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, otherwise the US will divert its full focus to Beijing.
Reposted by Michael Hirson
"Chinese firms in strategic sectors – including carmaking and AI – increasingly face overseas expansion hurdles put in place by Beijing, which is tightening up on approvals due to fears that key tech could be transferred out of the country"
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
Why Chinese firms building foreign factories are no longer focused on US market
Countries like Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Saudi Arabia have become top choices for Chinese companies looking to explore other markets.
www.scmp.com
June 15, 2025 at 6:22 AM
"Chinese firms in strategic sectors – including carmaking and AI – increasingly face overseas expansion hurdles put in place by Beijing, which is tightening up on approvals due to fears that key tech could be transferred out of the country"
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
Reposted by Michael Hirson
7/The case opens up a new line of argument against US sanctions/economic coercion. The court argues that the US can only use coercion to directly address the emergency and not to gain leverage over the target. This strategy underpins many of Trump's moves.
www.cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/fi...
www.cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/fi...
www.cit.uscourts.gov
May 29, 2025 at 10:59 AM
7/The case opens up a new line of argument against US sanctions/economic coercion. The court argues that the US can only use coercion to directly address the emergency and not to gain leverage over the target. This strategy underpins many of Trump's moves.
www.cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/fi...
www.cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/fi...
Reposted by Michael Hirson
“Fifty years from now, you will want to be able to look in the mirror and know that you did what you thought was right, in every part of your life. At the end of the day, your integrity is all you have.” Jay Powell www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Baccalaureate remarks by Chair Powell at the Princeton University Baccalaureate Ceremony
Thank you, President Eisgruber, for the opportunity to speak here today. Congratulations to the Princeton University class of 2025 on the tremendous achievemen
www.federalreserve.gov
May 25, 2025 at 7:24 PM
“Fifty years from now, you will want to be able to look in the mirror and know that you did what you thought was right, in every part of your life. At the end of the day, your integrity is all you have.” Jay Powell www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...