Karthik Sankaran
@rajakorman.bsky.social
Bay Area US. Aging macro expat. Cheap lunch guy. 1st to ever rhyme Duce and Juche. Neoliberal peacenik. Has Herder immunity. Virulent vector of dad jokes. 1/3 each phlegm, spleen & dad humors.
Pinned
Karthik Sankaran
@rajakorman.bsky.social
· Nov 21
My colleague Dan Ford and I just completed a brief on a bigger DFC. We welcome its likely reauthorization and suggest how it can combine the pursuit of US interests with global development without taking on an overly securitized or exclusionary approach.
quincyinst.org/research/inv...
quincyinst.org/research/inv...
The funniest thing about this is how what I complain about is literally the rhetorical strategy of the Treasury Secretary in a WSJ op-ed. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
January 6, 2026 at 8:08 PM
The funniest thing about this is how what I complain about is literally the rhetorical strategy of the Treasury Secretary in a WSJ op-ed. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Excellent. Trade imbalances are important, but advanced economies share the blame for creating regulatory frictions and tax incentives that damage productivity, widen inequality, and exacerbate political strife. Tolstoy: “Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself”
Today in things I have said a million times before, but are now sanctified by appearing against a salmon-colored backdrop, here is an LTE about how America's real problem is not trade but its inability to fix its most problematic nontradeable sectors.
www.ft.com/content/5959...
www.ft.com/content/5959...
Letter: America’s real challenge is its non-tradeable sectors
From Karthik Sankaran, Senior Research Fellow, Geoeconomics, Global South Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Washington, DC, US
www.ft.com
January 6, 2026 at 7:45 PM
Excellent. Trade imbalances are important, but advanced economies share the blame for creating regulatory frictions and tax incentives that damage productivity, widen inequality, and exacerbate political strife. Tolstoy: “Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself”
I blame the film 300.
January 6, 2026 at 6:40 PM
I blame the film 300.
Don’t forget the stated desire (which I doubt will work) to do regime change in a Middle East oil exporter currently under sanctions and to push for normalization with yet another giant one under sanctions and also to open lots more of the US to drilling while oil is barely 60.
Yes. You basically need to hand the entire capex bill to the USG. If you give XOM and CVX a free call on that going well (it won't) they'll take it.
But also: they are not going to be able to spin up meaningful prod in the next year or two; it's a very short clock.
But also: they are not going to be able to spin up meaningful prod in the next year or two; it's a very short clock.
as previously discussed downthread from the patient zero discussion that ended with sky off of here, the amount of subsidy to make this profitable (and thus palatable to any US company) is hilariously large
January 6, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Don’t forget the stated desire (which I doubt will work) to do regime change in a Middle East oil exporter currently under sanctions and to push for normalization with yet another giant one under sanctions and also to open lots more of the US to drilling while oil is barely 60.
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Victorian tables were set with three shakers, but apparently nobody knows what went in the third one? Salt, pepper, and…probably dried mustard but nobody is sure? Wild.
nowiknow.com/the-mystery-...
nowiknow.com/the-mystery-...
January 6, 2026 at 3:24 AM
Victorian tables were set with three shakers, but apparently nobody knows what went in the third one? Salt, pepper, and…probably dried mustard but nobody is sure? Wild.
nowiknow.com/the-mystery-...
nowiknow.com/the-mystery-...
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
All else being equal, there is an incentive to bandwagon with a reliable & predictable rules-based alliance of liberal democracies—even if you’re not one yourself!
But an illiberal hegemon pulls the Jenga brick out of that entire international system.
From now, it’s balancing-power all the way. 🗺️
But an illiberal hegemon pulls the Jenga brick out of that entire international system.
From now, it’s balancing-power all the way. 🗺️
Another way for countries to think about this is whether their geography makes their exposure to Chinese Wolf Warrior Diplomacy greater or lesser than their exposure to American Fox Warrior Diplomacy.
January 6, 2026 at 5:24 PM
All else being equal, there is an incentive to bandwagon with a reliable & predictable rules-based alliance of liberal democracies—even if you’re not one yourself!
But an illiberal hegemon pulls the Jenga brick out of that entire international system.
From now, it’s balancing-power all the way. 🗺️
But an illiberal hegemon pulls the Jenga brick out of that entire international system.
From now, it’s balancing-power all the way. 🗺️
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Can I put down a claim on Regime Roulette?
January 6, 2026 at 5:19 PM
Can I put down a claim on Regime Roulette?
I did not invent Regime Tweak it turns out.
Good one, but there's some prior art. Eg from 2017: www.macedoniantruth.org/forum/forum/...
January 6, 2026 at 5:18 PM
I did not invent Regime Tweak it turns out.
EU goes to farmers, CAP in hand.
EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen plans to give governments early access to the bloc’s cash for farmers as the Brussels executive pulls out the stops to get national capitals to give the green light to a trade deal with the South American Mercosur bloc.
Von der Leyen offers farmers €45bn sweetener to get Mercosur deal over line
EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen plans to give governments early access to the bloc’s cash for farmers as the Brussels executive pulls out the stops to get national capitals to give the green light to a trade deal with the South American Mercosur bloc.
euobserver.com
January 6, 2026 at 5:16 PM
EU goes to farmers, CAP in hand.
Hi Denmark.
Another way for countries to think about this is whether their geography makes their exposure to Chinese Wolf Warrior Diplomacy greater or lesser than their exposure to American Fox Warrior Diplomacy.
January 6, 2026 at 5:14 PM
Hi Denmark.
Please note that at 841 am EST on January 4, I invented the political science term “Regime Tweak.”
In the months before the US raid in Venezuela, people tied to international oil execs and investors made the case for Delcy Rodríguez to succeed Maduro, citing her skill navigating sanctions and economic pressures.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Venezuela’s New Leader Is the Oil Industry’s Long-Time Ally
As the US threatened Nicolás Maduro’s grip on power in recent months, a cadre of executives, lawyers and investors tied to the oil industry made their case to anyone who would listen — the Trump admin...
www.bloomberg.com
January 6, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Please note that at 841 am EST on January 4, I invented the political science term “Regime Tweak.”
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Does Asia prefer light sweet soybeans or heavy sour ones?
January 6, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Does Asia prefer light sweet soybeans or heavy sour ones?
Which part of the Western Hemisphere inside the new 9-dash line gets to sell soybeans to Asia?
January 6, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Which part of the Western Hemisphere inside the new 9-dash line gets to sell soybeans to Asia?
This is a dream job and you should definitely apply for this and the only better job at Odd Lots would be as a writer for the 3 minute finance/economics George and Gracie style comedic dialog that opens each show.
This could be a dream job for one of you. bloomberg.avature.net/careers/JobD...
January 6, 2026 at 3:27 PM
This is a dream job and you should definitely apply for this and the only better job at Odd Lots would be as a writer for the 3 minute finance/economics George and Gracie style comedic dialog that opens each show.
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Have you never read my Credo???? open.substack.com/pub/sankaran...
Stop blaming neoliberals for neoconneries
One of the things long-time followers on Twitter know about me (besides the most important fact that I am the Stakhanov of the dad joke) is that I like to come up with definitions for neoliberalism.
open.substack.com
January 6, 2026 at 1:46 AM
Have you never read my Credo???? open.substack.com/pub/sankaran...
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Time to refresh on the 3P's of oil reserves
January 6, 2026 at 1:25 PM
Time to refresh on the 3P's of oil reserves
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Brent crude is currently $62/barrel
January 6, 2026 at 2:03 PM
Brent crude is currently $62/barrel
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
As of yet the Chinese have shown no evidence of or even much interest in demonstrating the ability to engage in military projection of power beyond the Indo-Pacific, and even the Indo part of that looks very ropey in terms of how far the Chinese can match India on its turf
January 6, 2026 at 1:48 PM
As of yet the Chinese have shown no evidence of or even much interest in demonstrating the ability to engage in military projection of power beyond the Indo-Pacific, and even the Indo part of that looks very ropey in terms of how far the Chinese can match India on its turf
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
On that note I think China's strategic reach outside Asia is as limited as the EU's outside the Euro-Med.
China is only an effective full spectrum geopolitical actor between Singapore and Midway. As with the EU, outside its own turf its impact is primarily geoeconomic
China is only an effective full spectrum geopolitical actor between Singapore and Midway. As with the EU, outside its own turf its impact is primarily geoeconomic
January 6, 2026 at 1:47 PM
On that note I think China's strategic reach outside Asia is as limited as the EU's outside the Euro-Med.
China is only an effective full spectrum geopolitical actor between Singapore and Midway. As with the EU, outside its own turf its impact is primarily geoeconomic
China is only an effective full spectrum geopolitical actor between Singapore and Midway. As with the EU, outside its own turf its impact is primarily geoeconomic
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
For the EU to have ended up with worse relations not just with the US, but also with worse relations with RU and CN than the US has is not great diplomacy. Meanwhile, note that only one of the above 3 has officially & publicly articulated desires to annex/occupy the territory of a current EU member.
If the EU wants to avoid being press-ganged into America's beefs because it fears being abandoned by the US, it needs to find a) an autonomous capacity for deterrence & b) a diplomacy that is consistent with the extent of autonomous deterrence it is capable of mustering. www.ft.com/content/8214...
EU leaders to skip summit in Colombia after Trump sanctions
German chancellor, French president and European Commission chief cancel plans to attend regional meeting
www.ft.com
January 4, 2026 at 10:09 PM
For the EU to have ended up with worse relations not just with the US, but also with worse relations with RU and CN than the US has is not great diplomacy. Meanwhile, note that only one of the above 3 has officially & publicly articulated desires to annex/occupy the territory of a current EU member.
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Today in things I have said a million times before, but are now sanctified by appearing against a salmon-colored backdrop, here is an LTE about how America's real problem is not trade but its inability to fix its most problematic nontradeable sectors.
www.ft.com/content/5959...
www.ft.com/content/5959...
Letter: America’s real challenge is its non-tradeable sectors
From Karthik Sankaran, Senior Research Fellow, Geoeconomics, Global South Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Washington, DC, US
www.ft.com
January 5, 2026 at 1:59 PM
Today in things I have said a million times before, but are now sanctified by appearing against a salmon-colored backdrop, here is an LTE about how America's real problem is not trade but its inability to fix its most problematic nontradeable sectors.
www.ft.com/content/5959...
www.ft.com/content/5959...
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Hegelly Blonde
A decision was made to make Hegel wonderfully, unnecessarily blonde and I support it.
January 5, 2026 at 11:28 AM
Hegelly Blonde
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Wie @rajakorman.bsky.social vor ein paar Wochen geschrieben hat re:Grönland: Von den drei Ländern, die sich als Großmächte verstehen, beanspruchen Russland und die USA europäisches Gebiet. China nicht. Das sollte uns und Kallas & Co wenigstens mal zum Nachdenken bringen.
January 6, 2026 at 7:54 AM
Wie @rajakorman.bsky.social vor ein paar Wochen geschrieben hat re:Grönland: Von den drei Ländern, die sich als Großmächte verstehen, beanspruchen Russland und die USA europäisches Gebiet. China nicht. Das sollte uns und Kallas & Co wenigstens mal zum Nachdenken bringen.
Reposted by Karthik Sankaran
Yeah W.Hem, Guyana. (Exxon)
January 6, 2026 at 12:05 AM
Yeah W.Hem, Guyana. (Exxon)