Simon Lester
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Simon Lester
@simonlester.com

Founded WorldTradeLaw.net & ChinaTradeMonitor.com Non-Resident Fellow @bakerinstitute.bsky.social

Trade Policy feed: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:xqzu2eazvxb5fohoc4nap33y/feed/aaab5ctu4u4fc

Political science 43%
Economics 28%
Pinned
I see lots of new followers popping up today. I assume you are here for the trade policy, in which case you might like my custom trade policy feed: bsky.app/profile/did:...

They are showing you the zeroes, but anything not listed is at a very high IEEPA rate (lower than original, but still very high)

There are some US tariffs going to zero, but not clear to me how much trade that covers. And still lots of tariffs at very high levels.

* Will mostly remain well above ...

Under these deals, US tariffs will be below the original IEEPA "reciprocal" rate but well above what they were before "Liberation Day."

As for the foreign tariffs coming down, will be interesting to see what impact that has on US exports.

Reposted by Simon Lester

Drafts is beautiful. My poasting quality is going to go through the roof!
v1.116 is rolling out now!

For all the overthinkers and perfectionists out there, we're launching Drafts.
The White House just sent a "Don't Panic" email. That'll do it

Reposted by Simon Lester

"No matter what data points the president points to, his tariff policies appear to be holding back the very prosperity he claims to have achieved," Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux write. https://wapo.st/404MjnL
Opinion | The best evidence against Trump’s tariffs? His own first term.
Without tariffs, the first year of the president’s first term saw a healthier economy than 2025.
wapo.st
v1.116 is rolling out now!

For all the overthinkers and perfectionists out there, we're launching Drafts.

Reposted by Simon Lester

China and South Africa Sign Framework Pact, Moving Toward Zero-Tariff Trade Deal
China and South Africa Sign Framework Pact, Moving Toward Zero-Tariff Trade Deal
South Africa became the latest African country to formalize a landmark Framework Agreement with China, securing zero-tariff treatment for all its exports as Beijing expands its trade network across the African continent. ...
dlvr.it

Reposted by Simon Lester

Reposted by Simon Lester

As for "libertarians" writ large, my guesstimate would be: about a third went full MAGA, about half stuck to fence-sitting both-sides-ism (see that in the vote totals above), and only the minority remainder were ever strongly anti-Trump. Most of whom are now disaffected from libertarian orgs.

Reposted by Simon Lester

While everyone’s on the topic of libertarians who got in bed with MAGA authoritarianism, here’s what I wrote about it, including the history of how we got here, way back in 2022. The years since have, I believe, made my worries look, if anything, understated. www.aaronrosspowell.com/3m2fgwdmc7c2a
How the Right Distorted Libertarianism - Aaron Ross Powell's Blog
Once rooted in liberalism, libertarianism's detour through the conservative movement has blunted its radical edge and commitment to principle.
www.aaronrosspowell.com

Can the ASIL members replicate the sets, dancing, etc.?
Is there some sort of award for perfectly missing the point?

Yes, that will be difficult.

One would think so, yes!

I feel like there is a view among some self-proclaimed libertarians that racism is a personal belief and that personal beliefs should never be criticized. Their only concern is what the government is doing. Needless to say, I'm not a fan of this approach to promoting limited government.
When I worked for Reason magazine during Trump's rise to power in 2016, I was explicitly forbidden by the editor in chief from writing about Trump's racism, or the violence and racism at his rallies.

It was a "sideshow," I was told.
Weird. I tried to warn libertarians about Trump

With legal texts for 5 US trade deals now, we can do some analysis. Here I look at a provision that tries to induce trading partners to coordinate with US on import restrictions for economic/national security. TL;DR: Governments have discretion to decide whether to adopt US import restrictions.
Comparing the Economic and National Security Provisions in the New U.S. Trade Deals
By my count, we now have the legal texts of five Trump administration trade agreements. Will there be enforcement actions under these agreements?
ielp.worldtradelaw.net
When I worked for Reason magazine during Trump's rise to power in 2016, I was explicitly forbidden by the editor in chief from writing about Trump's racism, or the violence and racism at his rallies.

It was a "sideshow," I was told.
Weird. I tried to warn libertarians about Trump
Analysis: Weeks before he set foot on the stage, Bad Bunny’s halftime performance had already become a media event.

But if you were looking for political commentary, the closest that you got was when he said “God bless America” in English.
Analysis | Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show was expected to provoke. Did it?
The Bad Bunny Super Bowl show nodded to injustices in Puerto Rico but mostly evoked wholesome family values that meshed with the more sentimental commercials.
www.washingtonpost.com

That's possible. Hard to see him connecting with normies in a general election though.
Hassett: "There's a pretty big decline in the labor force because of illegals leaving the country, so the break even job number is quite a bit lower than it was under Joe Biden. So you should expect slightly smaller job numbers."

I don't think he could take it very far

We should get rid of the electoral college, which was a key ingredient in how we got here.

It's going to be hard to have Trumpism without Trump. I don't see anyone with the name recognition and personality to pull it off. We could actually go back to the politics that came before.

Worth emphasizing that Trump is at odds with many people in his administration on how to approach China. Not sure where that leads us.
Hanging over it all are myriad questions over Trump’s intentions with China. The suspicion of many allies and experts being that he is more interested in striking a commercially driven trade deal than isolating an existential rival.

by @sdonnan.bsky.social
Trump Follows in Rebuild of Global Trading Order He’s Dismantling
Trump has only concluded five trade deals, with a dozen others remaining mere frameworks
www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Simon Lester

Hanging over it all are myriad questions over Trump’s intentions with China. The suspicion of many allies and experts being that he is more interested in striking a commercially driven trade deal than isolating an existential rival.

by @sdonnan.bsky.social
Trump Follows in Rebuild of Global Trading Order He’s Dismantling
Trump has only concluded five trade deals, with a dozen others remaining mere frameworks
www.bloomberg.com
A post-Trump restoration is still possible ft.trib.al/GX2fiqG
A post-Trump restoration is still possible
His presidency may eventually be seen as an aberration rather than a permanent shift
ft.trib.al

Reposted by Simon Lester