John Culver
@johnculver689.bsky.social
Fmr National Intelligence Officer for East Asia, retired CIA analyst. Views solely my own. Likes/reposts are not an endorsement.
Pinned
Watching the Chinese leadership manage public opinion across 1.4 billion citizens for decades is interesting. They have the autocratic toolkit (state media ownership, massive propaganda and censorship apparatus, the Great Firewall to block foreign news), but still worry constantly about public... 1/
Beyond the sheer idiocy, I sincerely hope these frauds get the deflationary spiral they want.
Hoooooo boy
Fed Governor Stephen Miran: "Cutting down net migration to 0, potentially even negative because of the deportations that have been occurring, I think is very deflationary."
November 14, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Beyond the sheer idiocy, I sincerely hope these frauds get the deflationary spiral they want.
Dear Subway,
Which of your sandwiches has the highest ballistic coefficient?
No reason...
Which of your sandwiches has the highest ballistic coefficient?
No reason...
November 6, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Dear Subway,
Which of your sandwiches has the highest ballistic coefficient?
No reason...
Which of your sandwiches has the highest ballistic coefficient?
No reason...
Senators displeased with spoiled Colby cheese... Just deservedly brutal.
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
Pentagon’s policy shop is a ‘Pigpen-like mess': Sen. Cotton
Senate Armed Services Committee members from both parties question DOD missteps, actions that contravened president’s foreign-policy positions.
www.defenseone.com
November 5, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Senators displeased with spoiled Colby cheese... Just deservedly brutal.
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
Of course the WaPo editors think this is dandy. What utter shit the paper has become.
October 23, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Of course the WaPo editors think this is dandy. What utter shit the paper has become.
Trump confirms decades of insider reports that he shits his pants, explodes his diaper, and literally smells like shit. And considers himself King Shit.
The president, on his Truth Social account, posts an AI video portraying him as 'King Trump' piloting a fighter jet which drops shit on 'No Kings' demonstrators. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
October 19, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Trump confirms decades of insider reports that he shits his pants, explodes his diaper, and literally smells like shit. And considers himself King Shit.
Leaks about a covert ops finding on Venezuela put this into context. Ellis is the guy back in 2020 they tried to shove into NSA as general counsel before Jan6. Nakasone blocked him. If you name Ellis your top lawyer, you are intending to break a lot of laws, and not just wrt Venezuela.
And not a single mention in the Times about Michael Ellis installing himself as CIA general counsel. Fascinating.
🧵 This reporting confirms my suspicion on why, based on reporting last week, the CIA's Deputy Director, Michael Ellis, installed himself as the agency's general counsel. 1/ www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
October 16, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Leaks about a covert ops finding on Venezuela put this into context. Ellis is the guy back in 2020 they tried to shove into NSA as general counsel before Jan6. Nakasone blocked him. If you name Ellis your top lawyer, you are intending to break a lot of laws, and not just wrt Venezuela.
What if Trump calls on the PRC to renounce use of force in exchange for a halt to US arms sales and Trump announces US support for reunification? Still nominating him?
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te:
"We hope Taiwan will continue to enjoy the support of President Trump. If he is able to convince Xi Jinping to permanently renounce the use of force against Taiwan, President Trump will surely win the Nobel Peace Prize"
"We hope Taiwan will continue to enjoy the support of President Trump. If he is able to convince Xi Jinping to permanently renounce the use of force against Taiwan, President Trump will surely win the Nobel Peace Prize"
President Lai interviewed by The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show-News releases-News & activities｜Office of the President Republic of China(Taiwan)
Office of the President Republic of China(Taiwan)
english.president.gov.tw
October 7, 2025 at 11:34 AM
What if Trump calls on the PRC to renounce use of force in exchange for a halt to US arms sales and Trump announces US support for reunification? Still nominating him?
Reposted by John Culver
Fascinating look at China's resilience to extreme weather events -- investments in physical adaptation capacity unparalleled and innovative, yet information control that limits local officials' ability to build trust/tell truth limits effectiveness. (1/2)
How China was ready for Super Typhoon Ragasa – and what still needs to be done
Chinese cities have been hit by a series of deadly storms over the decades, but this time no one died on the mainland.
www.scmp.com
October 3, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Fascinating look at China's resilience to extreme weather events -- investments in physical adaptation capacity unparalleled and innovative, yet information control that limits local officials' ability to build trust/tell truth limits effectiveness. (1/2)
@radiofreetom.bsky.social curious what you think of George Packer's latest...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
America’s Zombie Democracy
Its trappings remain, but authoritarianism and AI are hollowing out our humanity.
www.theatlantic.com
September 27, 2025 at 10:52 PM
@radiofreetom.bsky.social curious what you think of George Packer's latest...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
Yeah, we know. Someone should tell Chuck, Hakeem, and Nancy. They seem to think the polls indicate Dems will do great in the midterms. They don't know they're going to Gitmo for being ANTIFA.
bit by bit, the administration is laying the groundwork and actually carrying out a system of repressing democratic life in america. redefining opposition as terrorism, targeting critics, investigating civic funders.
we're so far beyond normal and, again, only eight months in.
we're so far beyond normal and, again, only eight months in.
September 26, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Yeah, we know. Someone should tell Chuck, Hakeem, and Nancy. They seem to think the polls indicate Dems will do great in the midterms. They don't know they're going to Gitmo for being ANTIFA.
Think about this: Will Trump/MAGA peacefully relinquish power?
"I had friends say to me, look, we can oppose political violence without whitewashing this guy. I spent some time thinking about that over the weekend...and my reaction honestly is that it is too little to just say we oppose political violence."
September 17, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Think about this: Will Trump/MAGA peacefully relinquish power?
Reposted by John Culver
last night as i was trying to wind down for bed i had a unified theory of what the fuck just happened, and i wrote it down, and filed it under "well, i can't talk about this on main without sounding insane until and unless the perp gets caught and is provably a groyper"
anyways, great news! (1/X)
anyways, great news! (1/X)
September 12, 2025 at 4:13 PM
last night as i was trying to wind down for bed i had a unified theory of what the fuck just happened, and i wrote it down, and filed it under "well, i can't talk about this on main without sounding insane until and unless the perp gets caught and is provably a groyper"
anyways, great news! (1/X)
anyways, great news! (1/X)
Reposted by John Culver
After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed.
I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.
A thread on my new piece for RSIS...
I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.
A thread on my new piece for RSIS...
September 11, 2025 at 10:54 AM
After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed.
I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.
A thread on my new piece for RSIS...
I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.
A thread on my new piece for RSIS...
BTW, I first posted this on the other site five years ago.
What Trump wants from the military besides personal loyalty to him is for them to be killers. He has no idea, and would dismiss if explained, the role of laws governing armed conflict or domestic use of armed forces. He likely thinks Russian war crimes in Ukraine are great.
September 5, 2025 at 10:01 PM
BTW, I first posted this on the other site five years ago.
What Trump wants from the military besides personal loyalty to him is for them to be killers. He has no idea, and would dismiss if explained, the role of laws governing armed conflict or domestic use of armed forces. He likely thinks Russian war crimes in Ukraine are great.
September 5, 2025 at 9:29 PM
What Trump wants from the military besides personal loyalty to him is for them to be killers. He has no idea, and would dismiss if explained, the role of laws governing armed conflict or domestic use of armed forces. He likely thinks Russian war crimes in Ukraine are great.
Great history by Dave Finkelstein on the significant US WW2 role in defending China.
open.substack.com/pub/sinocism...
open.substack.com/pub/sinocism...
The Wrong President Will Attend China’s Military Parade
On September 3, the People’s Republic of China will stage what no doubt will be a spectacular military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War—known in the PRC as...
open.substack.com
September 3, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Great history by Dave Finkelstein on the significant US WW2 role in defending China.
open.substack.com/pub/sinocism...
open.substack.com/pub/sinocism...
Trump+henchmen are conditioning the country for their next insurrection if they lose an election. The DOD+IC and DOJ+FBI purges, combined with troops and goon squad in Democratic cities create the tools to invoke the Insurrection Act.
We’re 7 months in, and “Pentagon plans military deployment in Chicago” is a headline in the Washington Post. And because it’s city number three, we’re already numbing to it.
If you read this about any other democracy in the world, you’d conclude that it was well on the road to a dictatorship.
If you read this about any other democracy in the world, you’d conclude that it was well on the road to a dictatorship.
Pentagon plans military deployment in Chicago as Trump eyes crackdown
President Donald Trump said Chicago is his next likely target to crack down on urban crime. Military planning has been ongoing for weeks, officials say.
www.washingtonpost.com
August 24, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Trump+henchmen are conditioning the country for their next insurrection if they lose an election. The DOD+IC and DOJ+FBI purges, combined with troops and goon squad in Democratic cities create the tools to invoke the Insurrection Act.
Fun to work with Jon Czin on this for Foreign Affairs:
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
Brookings Foreign Policy on X: ""Xi is obsessed with ensuring that the PLA’s men would resist if need be—but he is still not confident they would." In @ForeignAffairs, Brookings experts @jonczin & @JohnCulver689 examine Xi's approach to the PLA and his continued grip on the military: https://t.co/YAilFOn169" / X
"Xi is obsessed with ensuring that the PLA’s men would resist if need be—but he is still not confident they would." In @ForeignAffairs, Brookings experts @jonczin & @JohnCulver689 examine Xi's approach to the PLA and his continued grip on the military: https://t.co/YAilFOn169
x.com
August 18, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Fun to work with Jon Czin on this for Foreign Affairs:
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."
x.com/BrookingsFP/...
Reposted by John Culver
Read Bonny Lin, @johnculver689.bsky.social, and @brianthart.bsky.social on the growing risk that China will make a deadly miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait—and what the United States can do to “deter a conflict or, failing that, to deny and defeat Chinese military adventurism.”
The Risk of War in the Taiwan Strait Is High—and Getting Higher
Beijing’s worry about the future could spur a deadly miscalculation soon.
www.foreignaffairs.com
May 15, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Read Bonny Lin, @johnculver689.bsky.social, and @brianthart.bsky.social on the growing risk that China will make a deadly miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait—and what the United States can do to “deter a conflict or, failing that, to deny and defeat Chinese military adventurism.”
"It's a genocide!"
Israeli soldiers have filmed themselves blowing up a building in Gaza for a ‘gender reveal’, having rigged it with explosives that give off blue smoke to indicate a fetus is male.
May 5, 2025 at 11:44 AM
"It's a genocide!"
Reposted by John Culver
Hardcoded credentials in the Signal archiving tool used by the White House is a five-alarm security dumpster fire.
The source code for the TM SGNL apps (basically a backdoored version of Signal used by Trump officials) is public! Since it's open source, I've pushed it to github for easier research micahflee.com/heres-the-so...
Here's the source code for the unofficial Signal app used by Trump officials
Yesterday, I published an analysis of what I could publicly find about TM SGNL, the obscure and unofficial Signal app used by Mike Waltz, and presumably also by Pete Hegseth, JD Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, ...
micahflee.com
May 3, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Hardcoded credentials in the Signal archiving tool used by the White House is a five-alarm security dumpster fire.
Least surprising news in forever: Fetterman is spiraling, needs to resign. Gee, what were the signs?
May 2, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Least surprising news in forever: Fetterman is spiraling, needs to resign. Gee, what were the signs?
Welcome to the "Omnishambles!"
There's no strategy. Trump sees trade as losing. He loves tariffs. But he's in 30s% approval territory and GOP sees its blood in the water. He gets pumped up by Navarro, then gets shit scared. On top of *all this other horrible shit*.
There's no strategy. Trump sees trade as losing. He loves tariffs. But he's in 30s% approval territory and GOP sees its blood in the water. He gets pumped up by Navarro, then gets shit scared. On top of *all this other horrible shit*.
1/Just back from 2 weeks in Asia. US engaged in the most far reaching attempt to restructure the global economy in a century and we have hit the omnishambles portion of the program: undermining US economic security and weaken US credibility in the world.
fortune.com/article/trum...
fortune.com/article/trum...
Trump had a ‘test case’ for trade negotiations with Japan. The failure to reach a deal now has analysts wondering if any will be signed
Trump’s team had hoped for some quick wins when it came to tariff negotiations. That’s looking increasingly unlikely.
fortune.com
April 27, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Welcome to the "Omnishambles!"
There's no strategy. Trump sees trade as losing. He loves tariffs. But he's in 30s% approval territory and GOP sees its blood in the water. He gets pumped up by Navarro, then gets shit scared. On top of *all this other horrible shit*.
There's no strategy. Trump sees trade as losing. He loves tariffs. But he's in 30s% approval territory and GOP sees its blood in the water. He gets pumped up by Navarro, then gets shit scared. On top of *all this other horrible shit*.