Ryan Allen
@1900hurricane.bsky.social
Meteorologist w/passion for intense TCs. MSST & TAMU. We are Masters of our Own Stories. INFP. He/him. Thoughts are my own alone.
Reposted by Ryan Allen
60-day precipitation departure from normal. Most all states, with a few notable exceptions, are quite dry.
November 17, 2025 at 1:05 AM
60-day precipitation departure from normal. Most all states, with a few notable exceptions, are quite dry.
Reposted by Ryan Allen
It's been a dry last 30 days for most places.
November 16, 2025 at 9:50 PM
It's been a dry last 30 days for most places.
Reposted by Ryan Allen
The 50th Anniversary of the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald: A New Perspective on an Old Storm: cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...
November 10, 2025 at 2:39 PM
The 50th Anniversary of the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald: A New Perspective on an Old Storm: cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...
Reposted by Ryan Allen
FEMA has denied or not advanced most Kerr County aid applications after deadly July 4 flood.
grist.org/extreme-weat...
#Texas #TX #Flood #FEMA #Weather
grist.org/extreme-weat...
#Texas #TX #Flood #FEMA #Weather
FEMA has denied or not advanced most Kerr County aid applications after deadly July 4 flood
Advocates are questioning why so many applicants from the flood-ravaged county have not received federal disaster help. Nonprofits are trying to fill in the gaps.
grist.org
October 20, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Reposted by Ryan Allen
Reposted by Ryan Allen
Better forecasting of flash floods is needed. NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory “is working to develop higher resolution modeling, but it's on the chopping block in the president's proposed budget.”
The Texas flood catastrophe was caused by a perfect storm of difficult-to-forecast rainfall and fast-moving water. But the aftermath is highlighting the maelstrom at the National Weather Service and the administration's planned budget cuts. www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
Who's to blame for Texas flooding tragedy? There is a lot of finger pointing.
The catastrophe was caused by a perfect storm of difficult-to-forecast rainfall and fast-moving water. Some wonder if budget cuts made things worse.
www.usatoday.com
July 7, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Better forecasting of flash floods is needed. NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory “is working to develop higher resolution modeling, but it's on the chopping block in the president's proposed budget.”
Reposted by Ryan Allen
This is a dangerous lie.
30 of 122 WFOs don’t have an MIC.
NWS is famously flexible, but you can’t let 14% (600/4300) of an already thin workforce go - especially the senior staff - and then claim “overstaffing”.
You can only stretch a rubber band so far before it snaps.
30 of 122 WFOs don’t have an MIC.
NWS is famously flexible, but you can’t let 14% (600/4300) of an already thin workforce go - especially the senior staff - and then claim “overstaffing”.
You can only stretch a rubber band so far before it snaps.
Leavitt: "There were record-breaking lead times in the lead up to this catastrophe ... in fact, one of the offices was actually overstaffed. They had more people than they need."
July 7, 2025 at 11:02 PM
This is a dangerous lie.
30 of 122 WFOs don’t have an MIC.
NWS is famously flexible, but you can’t let 14% (600/4300) of an already thin workforce go - especially the senior staff - and then claim “overstaffing”.
You can only stretch a rubber band so far before it snaps.
30 of 122 WFOs don’t have an MIC.
NWS is famously flexible, but you can’t let 14% (600/4300) of an already thin workforce go - especially the senior staff - and then claim “overstaffing”.
You can only stretch a rubber band so far before it snaps.
Reposted by Ryan Allen
Flood Watch issued yesterday at 1:18 pm.
WPC had mesoscale discussions throughout the event.
NWS issues Flash Flood Warning at 1:14 am.
NWS issues Flash Flood Emergency at 4:03 am.
NWS was on the ball.
The challenge is always getting the warning the last mile and getting people to respond.
WPC had mesoscale discussions throughout the event.
NWS issues Flash Flood Warning at 1:14 am.
NWS issues Flash Flood Emergency at 4:03 am.
NWS was on the ball.
The challenge is always getting the warning the last mile and getting people to respond.
Everyone making comments about DOGE and FEMA as it relates to the Texas flooding is insulting to the NWS employees working this event that were well aware of how bad this was becoming. Plenty of opportunities to use those arguments elsewhere.
July 5, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Flood Watch issued yesterday at 1:18 pm.
WPC had mesoscale discussions throughout the event.
NWS issues Flash Flood Warning at 1:14 am.
NWS issues Flash Flood Emergency at 4:03 am.
NWS was on the ball.
The challenge is always getting the warning the last mile and getting people to respond.
WPC had mesoscale discussions throughout the event.
NWS issues Flash Flood Warning at 1:14 am.
NWS issues Flash Flood Emergency at 4:03 am.
NWS was on the ball.
The challenge is always getting the warning the last mile and getting people to respond.
Reposted by Ryan Allen
The missing piece of this viral post is that the Texas officials are lying and deflecting blame. The NWS, hobbled as it is, issued an accurate flood watch for Kerr County the evening before and accurate escalating warnings overnight as the flood was developing.
After media reports & experts warned for months that drastic & sudden cuts at the Nat Weather Service by Trump could impair their forecasting ability & endanger lives during the storm season, TX officials blame an inaccurate forecast by NWS for the deadly results of the flood.
July 5, 2025 at 12:28 PM
The missing piece of this viral post is that the Texas officials are lying and deflecting blame. The NWS, hobbled as it is, issued an accurate flood watch for Kerr County the evening before and accurate escalating warnings overnight as the flood was developing.
Reposted by Ryan Allen
Over 7 inches in the last two hours west of Round Rock...
July 5, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Over 7 inches in the last two hours west of Round Rock...
Reposted by Ryan Allen
*This* is why we call the Balcones Escarpment area, the Texas Hill Country, Flash Flood Alley.
Locals and longtime visitors know, it can be very dangerous very fast. I can only really compare it to mountain flash flooding- just rain sluicing off of rock and into the closest channels.
Locals and longtime visitors know, it can be very dangerous very fast. I can only really compare it to mountain flash flooding- just rain sluicing off of rock and into the closest channels.
This hydrograph of the Guadalupe River in Comfort is terrifying with this…something like 25 feet in 45 minutes.
July 4, 2025 at 6:17 PM
*This* is why we call the Balcones Escarpment area, the Texas Hill Country, Flash Flood Alley.
Locals and longtime visitors know, it can be very dangerous very fast. I can only really compare it to mountain flash flooding- just rain sluicing off of rock and into the closest channels.
Locals and longtime visitors know, it can be very dangerous very fast. I can only really compare it to mountain flash flooding- just rain sluicing off of rock and into the closest channels.
Reposted by Ryan Allen
I did a deep dive into the horrific flash flooding that occurred overnight in central Texas. Very scared that this is going to end up being a long remembered, infamous July 4th weather event.
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
Catastrophic overnight flash flooding in central Texas
Also likely to see a tropical cyclone east of Florida in next 24 hours
open.substack.com
July 4, 2025 at 5:04 PM
I did a deep dive into the horrific flash flooding that occurred overnight in central Texas. Very scared that this is going to end up being a long remembered, infamous July 4th weather event.
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
Reposted by Ryan Allen
NOAA budget package details plans to reduce spending, staff, climate research and shut down its labs and cooperative institutes with universities. #NOAA #climatechange www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
NOAA budget spells out plans to reduce spending and abandon climate research
A detailed expense budget for NOAA outlines plans to reduce spending and cut climate and atmospheric research.
www.usatoday.com
July 1, 2025 at 5:52 PM
NOAA budget package details plans to reduce spending, staff, climate research and shut down its labs and cooperative institutes with universities. #NOAA #climatechange www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
Reposted by Ryan Allen
Just a couple days ago NOAA claimed their "data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve". This budget request puts the lie to that claim.
NOAA budget package details plans to reduce spending, staff, climate research and shut down its labs and cooperative institutes with universities. #NOAA #climatechange www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
NOAA budget spells out plans to reduce spending and abandon climate research
A detailed expense budget for NOAA outlines plans to reduce spending and cut climate and atmospheric research.
www.usatoday.com
July 1, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Just a couple days ago NOAA claimed their "data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve". This budget request puts the lie to that claim.
Reposted by Ryan Allen
For perspective: a recent study suggested that economic savings from just a *single* well-predicted hurricane, thanks to NOAA research advancements, are on order of *$5 billion.* That exceeds NOAA's *entire proposed annual operating budget.* So much for government efficiency.
July 1, 2025 at 5:18 PM
For perspective: a recent study suggested that economic savings from just a *single* well-predicted hurricane, thanks to NOAA research advancements, are on order of *$5 billion.* That exceeds NOAA's *entire proposed annual operating budget.* So much for government efficiency.
Reposted by Ryan Allen
It's hard to adequately summarize how destructive NOAA's 2026 proposed budget released on Monday is for hurricane forecasting, but I crammed all I could into today's newsletter. I encourage everyone with interests along the coast to read it carefully. ⬇️
NOAA Proposes Permanently Closing Premiere Hurricane Research Institute
In its proposed 2026 budget released Monday, NOAA closes all federally funded weather and climate research labs, including the one responsible for maintaining the nation’s top hurricane models
michaelrlowry.substack.com
July 1, 2025 at 3:21 PM
It's hard to adequately summarize how destructive NOAA's 2026 proposed budget released on Monday is for hurricane forecasting, but I crammed all I could into today's newsletter. I encourage everyone with interests along the coast to read it carefully. ⬇️
Reposted by Ryan Allen
Terminating weather and climate labs and cooperative institutes immediately makes us less safe from severe weather and climate events.
The research conducted at these labs has given us improvements to hurricane, storm surge, tornado, and severe thunderstorm warnings.
The research conducted at these labs has given us improvements to hurricane, storm surge, tornado, and severe thunderstorm warnings.
June 30, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Terminating weather and climate labs and cooperative institutes immediately makes us less safe from severe weather and climate events.
The research conducted at these labs has given us improvements to hurricane, storm surge, tornado, and severe thunderstorm warnings.
The research conducted at these labs has given us improvements to hurricane, storm surge, tornado, and severe thunderstorm warnings.
Reposted by Ryan Allen
Budget "blue book" is finally out with NOAA details to the OMB budget. From a quick look no big surprises, clearly spells out the disastrous impacts & confirms things like elimination of VORTEX/WoFS. I'll have more later but this earlier post has impacts
balancedweather.substack.com/p/noaa-is-no...
balancedweather.substack.com/p/noaa-is-no...
June 30, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Budget "blue book" is finally out with NOAA details to the OMB budget. From a quick look no big surprises, clearly spells out the disastrous impacts & confirms things like elimination of VORTEX/WoFS. I'll have more later but this earlier post has impacts
balancedweather.substack.com/p/noaa-is-no...
balancedweather.substack.com/p/noaa-is-no...
Reposted by Ryan Allen
The impact of these cuts now, next year, 10 years, 50 years will be immeasurable. The overall cuts to science will go down in history as one of the biggest self-owns of all time.
"What if we take what our superpower,-our investment in science and technology- and just obliterate it?"
"What if we take what our superpower,-our investment in science and technology- and just obliterate it?"
What a tragedy this is even being proposed on paper... 💔
NOAA FY2026 Congressional Justification: www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...
NOAA FY2026 Congressional Justification: www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...
June 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
The impact of these cuts now, next year, 10 years, 50 years will be immeasurable. The overall cuts to science will go down in history as one of the biggest self-owns of all time.
"What if we take what our superpower,-our investment in science and technology- and just obliterate it?"
"What if we take what our superpower,-our investment in science and technology- and just obliterate it?"
Reposted by Ryan Allen
What a tragedy this is even being proposed on paper... 💔
NOAA FY2026 Congressional Justification: www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...
NOAA FY2026 Congressional Justification: www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...
June 30, 2025 at 4:19 PM
What a tragedy this is even being proposed on paper... 💔
NOAA FY2026 Congressional Justification: www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...
NOAA FY2026 Congressional Justification: www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...
Reposted by Ryan Allen
Enjoy this DMSP-17 SSMIS Microwave image of Tropical Storm #Flossie in the East Pacific -- after receiving a generous 5-day notice, the entire DMSP constellation is being deactivated tomorrow.
Source: tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
Source: tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
June 29, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Enjoy this DMSP-17 SSMIS Microwave image of Tropical Storm #Flossie in the East Pacific -- after receiving a generous 5-day notice, the entire DMSP constellation is being deactivated tomorrow.
Source: tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
Source: tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
Reposted by Ryan Allen
We are losing access to key weather satellite data important for hurricane forecasting. But remember when we said that computer models were less reliant on balloons because they now use satellite data? Well, this is some of that satellite data and we're losing it.
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
Critical meteorological satellite data terminated
Meanwhile, Eastern heat dome slowly shrinks
open.substack.com
June 26, 2025 at 5:07 PM
We are losing access to key weather satellite data important for hurricane forecasting. But remember when we said that computer models were less reliant on balloons because they now use satellite data? Well, this is some of that satellite data and we're losing it.
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
Reposted by Ryan Allen
Imagine if one day the government just decided to make our hurricane forecasting worse under the dubious guise of “security.” Sounds crazy right?
We are losing access to key weather satellite data important for hurricane forecasting. But remember when we said that computer models were less reliant on balloons because they now use satellite data? Well, this is some of that satellite data and we're losing it.
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
Critical meteorological satellite data terminated
Meanwhile, Eastern heat dome slowly shrinks
open.substack.com
June 26, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Imagine if one day the government just decided to make our hurricane forecasting worse under the dubious guise of “security.” Sounds crazy right?
Reposted by Ryan Allen
Yes agreed! ATMS has its place with all the other Polar Orbiters thanks to pretty good vertical resolution (so it’s a good thermal sounder to determine TC warm cores for instance).
But if TC convective structure is what you are looking for, it’s like driving legally blind. 😵💫 #blurry
But if TC convective structure is what you are looking for, it’s like driving legally blind. 😵💫 #blurry
June 27, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Yes agreed! ATMS has its place with all the other Polar Orbiters thanks to pretty good vertical resolution (so it’s a good thermal sounder to determine TC warm cores for instance).
But if TC convective structure is what you are looking for, it’s like driving legally blind. 😵💫 #blurry
But if TC convective structure is what you are looking for, it’s like driving legally blind. 😵💫 #blurry
Reposted by Ryan Allen
😬 yeah unfortunately ATMS does not have enough horizontal res needed to resolve inner core features in TCs like #Erick.
Nice TS Storms post by Naufal Razin shows footprint of SSMIS imagers on overall TC microwave coverage.
Microwave coverage peaked in 2015, w/ SSMIS ~60% of current coverage data.
Nice TS Storms post by Naufal Razin shows footprint of SSMIS imagers on overall TC microwave coverage.
Microwave coverage peaked in 2015, w/ SSMIS ~60% of current coverage data.
June 27, 2025 at 9:40 PM
😬 yeah unfortunately ATMS does not have enough horizontal res needed to resolve inner core features in TCs like #Erick.
Nice TS Storms post by Naufal Razin shows footprint of SSMIS imagers on overall TC microwave coverage.
Microwave coverage peaked in 2015, w/ SSMIS ~60% of current coverage data.
Nice TS Storms post by Naufal Razin shows footprint of SSMIS imagers on overall TC microwave coverage.
Microwave coverage peaked in 2015, w/ SSMIS ~60% of current coverage data.