Lawrence Freedman
ldfreedman.bsky.social
Lawrence Freedman
@ldfreedman.bsky.social

Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. Latest Book Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine. Substack Comment is Freed https://samf.substack.com/

Sir Lawrence David Freedman, is a British academic, historian and author specialising in foreign policy, international relations and strategy. He has been described as the "dean of British strategic studies" and was a member of the Iraq Inquiry. He is an Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London. .. more

Political science 82%
Sociology 6%

I've just updated my previous post on the military intervention in Venezuela. I was right to be sceptical of Trump's claims that VP Delcy Rodríguez was prepared to hand over the country and its oil field to US - as she has now made clear. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/trump-madu...
Trump, Maduro and the Panama Precedent
Once again the US has undertaken a military operation that was effectively executed in support of an uncertain political objective.
samf.substack.com

As was the Queen

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01...

Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, in an address to the nation, “the masks had fallen off, revealing only one objective: regime change in Venezuela. This regime change would also allow for the seizure of our energy, mineral, and natural resources."
Update from Jack Nicas
www.nytimes.com

First thoughts on events in Venezuela - with a look back at exactly 35 years ago when something similar happened in Panama. Another bold first military move with little idea about the second, except Trump claims that the aftermath is already sorted. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
Trump, Maduro and the Panama Precedent
Once again the US has undertaken a military operation that was effectively executed in support of an uncertain political objective.
open.substack.com

This is so weird
A ten-part thread on misreading Trump:

A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

It's our fourth anniversary at Comment is Freed today and we have a special offer to celebrate.

25% off for your first year.

We don't do these often so if you've been thinking of signing up now is the time

samf.substack.com/p/fourth-ann...
Fourth Anniversary Offer: get 25% off for your first year
Plus what we'll be writing about in 2026
samf.substack.com
Reading this deeply reported article by Adam Entous on the US approach to Ukraine and Russia was painful for me as an American. I will provide some of my thoughts later on here. This is probably the most important piece of journalism in 2025 on foreign policy.
The Separation: Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership
As President Trump sought a peace deal and Vladimir V. Putin sought victory, factions in the White House and Pentagon bled the Ukrainian war effort.
www.nytimes.com

Guest post from former adviser Henry de Zoete on how to get things done in government, but good advice for operating in any large organisation. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/advice-for...
Advice for advisers - 14 lessons for making government work
We have one final guest post this year from Henry de Zoete who wrote for us a few months ago on “How to Make Government Work” with a case study of the AI Security Institute.
samf.substack.com

Yes - as I say in the post. I think I was too Euro-centric.

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

This is very good.

Reposted by Kori Schake

After Sam’s audit for 2025 here is mine, assessing what I got right and wrong over the year and noting how certain themes developed over the year. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
The Audit 2025 - Part 2
Lawrence looks at what he got right and wrong
open.substack.com

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

The now traditional picture of our turkey brining in the twins old baby bath.

In the spirit of relentless self-criticism that marks Comment is Freed @samfr.bsky.social provides his self-assessment for the past year. Mine will follow after Xmas. samf.substack.com/p/the-audit-...
The Audit - 2025
What did I get right and wrong?
samf.substack.com
“I am a hopeful animal and in my most hopeful moments, I think the longer term consequence of the Trump presidency will be much more stringent restrictions on the executive power of the president of the United States.” @ldfreedman.bsky.social drew me out on civ-mil and US politics.
The State and the Soldier
How should the US military react to a "unprincipled principal"?
open.substack.com
New post out:

@ldfreedman.bsky.social talks to @kschake.bsky.social - who's worked at senior levels in the US defense and state departments - on how the military should deal with Trump, Hegseth and illegal orders.

(Free to read)

samf.substack.com/p/the-state-...
The State and the Soldier
How should the US military react to a "unprincipled principal"?
samf.substack.com

Delighted to talk to Kori Shake about her excellent and timely new book, The State and the Soldier, about the history of civil-military relations in the US, when these relations are going through - to say the least - a testing time. (Free) samf.substack.com/p/the-state-...
The State and the Soldier
How should the US military react to a "unprincipled principal"?
samf.substack.com
A few quick thoughts about this morning's decision. Don't believe the spin from various Russians & others: it's a big deal. The EU has now unambiguously demonstrated that it is able and willing to provide the external financial support Ukraine needs, for as long and as much as it takes. (1/N)

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

As always, the best guide to what's going on in Ukraine.

This sentence seems to me a good rule of thumb (& presumably it works vice versa too), worth bearing in mind whenever there's excitement in the media about an imminent breakthrough.

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Lots in here and as usual cuts through the noise.
On battlefield exaggerations, reality and the battle to control the perception of an inevitable Russian victory.

US negotiators would do well to appreciate the reality, and then perhaps consider the below quote:

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Well worth it for the unpaywalled intro alone, on Putin's 'narrative power'. What @ldfreedman.bsky.social says here about Narrative Power is something worth considering in US and UK politics as much as in Ukraine. But read it for Ukraine.
samf.substack.com/p/why-kupyan...
Why Kupyansk Matters
Undermining the Russian narrative
samf.substack.com

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

The plague would be a possibility